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DP Alert: Dow Takes the Lead with New PMO BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

Big news today was a new Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal on the Dow. I've noticed the bifurcation of the markets. Today saw a positive close for the Dow, OEX and SPX, but the NDX, $MID and $SML all closed lower. In the case of mid- and small-caps, they took back most of the gains they made yesterday.   The daily chart for the Dow shows the breakout from the consolidation  Read More

9/19 MWL Recap: Guest David Keller, "The Mindful Investor" - Are You Buying This?

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the YouTube  Read More

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Dollar Index Is On A Knife Edge

by Martin Pring

Long-term dollar technical position Short-term picture bearish outcome Short-term picture bullish outcome Euro Yen Swiss franc Long-term dollar technical position I have been primary trend bullish on the dollar for several months. That opinion still stands because the Dollar Index is well above its 12-month MA and its long-term KST is positive. The  Read More

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FOUR-MONTH HIGH IN THE 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD HELPS FINANCIAL SPDR BREAK OUT TO THE UPSIDE -- BUT MAKES UTILITIES THE DAY'S WEAKEST SECTOR

by John Murphy

RISING BOND YIELDS HELP FINANCIALS, BUT HURT UTILITIES This morning's message suggested that this week's upside breakout in bond yields was helping financial stocks which were the day's strongest sector. The green bars on top of Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury yield surging to the highest level in four months and nearing a test of its May high. An upside breakout  Read More

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UPSIDE BREAKOUT IN BOND YIELDS IS BOOSTING FINANCIAL STOCKS -- CITIGROUP AND JP MORGAN NEAR UPSIDE BREAKOUTS

by John Murphy

FINANCIALS GET A BOOST FROM RISING BOND YIELDS Yesterday's message showed the 10-Year Treasury yield rising to the highest level in four months. That probably explains why financials are leading the market higher today. Chart 1 shows the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) bouncing sharply off its moving average lines and in position to challenge its August high. Bank  Read More

Rising Treasury Yields Portend Much Higher S&P 500, But Short-Term....

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, September 18, 2018 It was a solid day on Wall Street.  One day after seeing weakness in key areas like technology, consumer discretionary and tranportation stocks and the increasing historical likelihood of further downside action, stocks rebounded.in a big way.  Leading the charge were our aggressive sectors - consumer discretionary (XLY, +1.27%)  Read More

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Will Rising Yields Boost the Finance Sector?

by Arthur Hill

2-yr Treasury Yield Hits 10-yr High. The Mother of All Double Bottoms. Financials SPDR Extends Stall. Leaders and Laggards in Finance. Stocks to Watch: WMT, TRN and GILD. Big Moves in Treasury Yields Treasury yields moved sharply higher the last few weeks with the 2-yr T-Yield ($UST2Y) and the 5-yr T-Yield ($UST5Y) hitting their highest levels since 2008. The 10-yr  Read More

deFANG'd?

by Bruce Fraser

In June we studied the First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund (FDN). This ETF is our proxy index for the FANG stocks. At that time FDN had accelerated into an overbought condition by throwing over its trend channel. Almost immediately weakness set in and FDN tumbled to the lower trendline. The rush of FDN into the June Buying Climax (BCLX) had the appearance of institutions crowding their  Read More

Disney Hits Potential Reversal Zone

by Arthur Hill

Disney hit a new high in early August and pulled back into September. The stock is part of a strong sector, consumer discretionary, and this pullback reached a potential reversal area. First and foremost, the long-term trend is up because the stock formed a higher low from October to April and a higher high from January to August. The August high was also a 52-week high and the 50-day EMA is  Read More

20-Year Bonds ETF (TLT) is "Officially" in a Bear Market

by Erin Swenlin

I've been trumpeting the bearish horn on TLT for some time, but today marked a series of unfortunate events for TLT. Just last week we saw a new IT Trend Model Neutral signal and today, we got the LT Trend Model SELL signal. Add to that the execution of a serious double-top and an IT PMO SELL signal lined up for Friday on the weekly chart and you have a recipe for a long deep decline. There's a  Read More

9/18 MWL Recap: "Step-By-Step Scanning and Alerts" with Erin - Inside the Lines

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the YouTube  Read More

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TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD EXCEEDS 3% -- 20-YEAR T-BOND ISHARES BREAK SUPPORT

by John Murphy

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD REACHES FOUR-MONTH HIGH Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) rising above its twin summer peaks near 3.00% and reaching the highest level in four months. That upside move breaks the TNX out of the three-month sideways pattern that it had been trading in; and may be setting the stage for a retest of its May peak. That would be a  Read More

Technology Is Teetering; How Much More Selling Is Healthy?

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, September 17, 2018 Selling in technology (XLK, -1.25%) and consumer discretionary (XLY, -1.24%) resulted in losses across our major indices on Monday.  The NASDAQ, understandably, felt the brunt of the selling as this tech-laden index dropped 1.43%.  The Russell 2000 ($RUT) suffered the most technical damage, shedding more than 1% to close beneath its  Read More

9/16 MWL Recap: Monday Set-Ups - Earnings Spotlight with John Hopkins - DecisionPoint Report

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the YouTube  Read More

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STOCKS LOSE SOME UPSIDE MOMENTUM -- AMAZON AND MCDONALDS PULL CYCLICALS LOWER

by John Murphy

SHORT-TERM SIGNS OF WEAKNESS The uptrend in U.S. stocks remains very much intact. However, upside momentum is weakening a bit. Chart 1, for example, shows the S&P 500 trading sideways over the past couple of weeks which is not unusual. The daily MACD lines (which are overlaid over the price chart), however, have weakened a bit. The SPX, however, remains well  Read More

Commodities Continue To Struggle 2018-09-14 Video

by Greg Schnell

The commodity charts continue to drift lower. There are lots of nice trend lines formed, but there seems to be little energy for a break to the upside just yet. The currency charts are important this week as the $USD seems set up for a sell signal on the momentum indicator. That might create a spark in the commodities and the emerging markets. The Yen is still holding above the black horizontal  Read More

Now We Head Into The Most Bearish Half Of September

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, September 14, 2018 The NASDAQ struggled on Friday, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 managed to finish with slight, fractional gains.  The Russell 2000 was the clear outperformer, a bullish development as the U.S. Dollar Index ($USD) bounced off its recent price support level near 94.50: Losing short-term price and trendline support in the 94.40-94.50 level could  Read More

Procter & Gamble Attempts to Turn

by Arthur Hill

The Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) has been leading the market since early May and Procter & Gamble is the largest stock in the sector (12.58%).  On the price chart, PG is in the midst of a long-term trend change and the short-term trend is also turning up. First and foremost, the long-term trend is turning up as the 50-day EMA moves above the 200-day EMA. This crossover is still in the  Read More

Aerospace Starts A Launch Sequence

by Greg Schnell

With another SpaceX launch and more news this week about delivering multiple cargos on one delivery rocket, the Aerospace industry continues to accelerate. This week, the group of public aerospace companies all sported nice chart setups heading into the fourth quarter. I have circled the SCTR rankings. I did a review of UTX on a Don't Ignore This Chart article titled  Read More

United Technologies (UTX) Pushed The Penthouse Button

by Greg Schnell

United Technologies is a member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. While this is a high profile group of stocks, the other stocks are commonly stealing the spotlight. This week, United Technologies (UTX) pushed the penthouse button to break above the trading range.  The chart features a few nice technical points.  When a stock has an SCTR oscillating between  Read More

Three Great Stocks And An Offer To Download My Strong Earnings ChartList

by Tom Bowley

Special Offer If you would like a copy of my Strong Earnings ChartList, simply follow these steps and I'll send it to you: 1.  You MUST be a paid Extra or Pro member of StockCharts.com as that's the only way you can download my ChartList.  If you're unsure of your account service level, click on the "Your Account" tab in the upper right hand corner when you're on the SC.com home  Read More

XLE Gains PMO BUY Signal - Still Too Many Negatives in Intermediate Term

by Erin Swenlin

If you look at our DecisionPoint Sector Scoreboard below you'll see that the Energy is the only sector carrying an Intermediate-Term Trend Model Neutral signal. All other sectors have BUY signals in both the intermediate term and long term. While Energy did log a new Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal today, the negatives on the daily and weekly charts outweigh the positives. I've  Read More

Equities (SPY) is the only asset class inside the leading quadrant AND it is at a positive RRG Heading

by Julius de Kempenaer

The Relative Rotation Graph shows the relative positions of various asset classes (ETFs) against VBINX, a Vanguard balanced index fund, as the benchmark. The long tails for Real Estate and Commodities stand out, as well as the cluster of fixed income related asset classes inside the red oval. The strongest clue, on this RRG chart, however, is coming from SPY which is the only asset class  Read More

The Single Best Thing a Stock Can Do

by Arthur Hill

There are lots of indicators out there, but one metric stands head and shoulders above the rest. No, it is not a head-and-shoulders pattern. There are hundreds, if not zillions, of ways to measure the trend and identify trend reversals. Over the years, I have found trend reversals to be more the exception rather than the norm. Trends show a tendency to persist and this means we are better off  Read More

Traders Still Attracted to Strong Earnings

by John Hopkins

The bulls have remained in charge for a long time now in large part due to continuing, strong earnings. Even with the constant daily noise surrounding the market it almost always comes down to the bottom line. Thus when traders are looking for high reward to risk trades it makes a lot of sense to zero in on those companies that handily beat earnings expectation. As an example, take a look at  Read More

9/14 MWL Recap: Guest Co-Host Mary Ellen McConagle - Sentiment Update

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the YouTube  Read More

DP Weekly Wrap: Gap Cleared. What's Next?

by Carl Swenlin

Last week I was concerned that the VIX had topped but had failed reach the top band on the chart -- a similar configuration occurred in January before the crash. This week the VIX moved close to the top of the channel, so I think we can consider that the 'gap' problem has cleared. (To clarify, I use an inverted scale for the VIX to make interpretation more intuitive, and my references are to  Read More

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Weekly Market Review and Outlook - Large-caps Take the Lead

by Arthur Hill

Market Overview - New Highs Are? Breadth Remains Strong Enough. Large-caps Lead New High List. SPX Turns Up after Mild Pullback. Small-caps Lag on Upturn. QQQ Bounces from Oversold Level. XLY and XLV hit new highs as XLK turns Up. XLI Continues to Lead as XLF Lags. Bond Correlations Break Down. Utes, REITs and Staples Remain Strong. Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList. MarketRead More

"Believable" Misinformation Is a Danger to Long-Term Retirement Goals

by Greg Morris

Many investment "truths" seem to go unchallenged but are in fact, very clearly just myths.  Buy and hold investing is a good long-term strategy, economists are good at predicting the markets, diversification will protect you from losses, compounding is the eighth wonder of the world, missing the best days each year can be devastating, probability and risk are the same thing, and chasing  Read More

Biotechs, Computer Hardware, And Semiconductors Among Leaders On Thursday

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, September 13, 2018 Thursday was a strong day for U.S. equities aside from lackluster performance from small caps (Russell 2000).  The NASDAQ led the rally, gaining 0.75% as a rebound in biotechs ($DJUSBT) and semiconductors ($DJUSSC) provided some confidence for traders in those two areas, especially the latter: I'm reprinting the DJUSSC chart from yesterday, but  Read More

DP Alert: Swenlin Trading Oscillators Are Perking Up - TLT IT Trend Model Neutral Signal

by Erin Swenlin

No changes to the DecisionPoint Scoreboards since the past week's PMO SELL signals were added. We've seen a slight rebound in the market the past few days and consequently, our short-term indicators are beginning to turn up from somewhat oversold territory. Unfortunately, intermediate-term indicators are still declining and some of the breadth numbers are have bearish divergences.  Read More

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Is It A Bubble When ...

by Martin Pring

A few thoughts on bubbles Technical comments on the Dow Jones Internet Commerce Index China on the brink A few thoughts on bubbles Last week, I pointed out that most of the FAANG stocks remained in uptrends, with the possible exception of Netflix and the confirmed bear market in Facebook. The Dow Jones Internet Commerce Index is designed to measure the  Read More

9/13 MWL Recap: Grayson Roze on SCTRs - Chart Breakouts!

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the YouTube  Read More

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Brokers Weigh on Finance Sector, Staples Stay Strong and 4 Stocks

by Arthur Hill

XLF Stalls at Resistance. IAI Breaks Triangle Line (plus key stocks). Regional Bank SPDR Falters. XLP goes from Laggard to Leader (plus key stocks). Checkpoint, Biomarin, Cerner and Walgreens. Interview with Financial Sense. XLF Stalls at Resistance The Financials SPDR (XLF) led the market higher from late June to early August with an 8% advance, but the ETF has been  Read More

Equities (SPY) is the only asset class at positive RRG Heading

by Julius de Kempenaer

The Relative Rotation Graph shows the relative positions of various asset classes (ETFs) against VBINX, a Vanguard balanced index fund, as the benchmark. The long tails for Real Estate and Commodities stand out, as well as the cluster of fixed income related asset classes inside the red oval. The strongest clue, on this RRG chart, however, is coming from SPY which is the only asset class  Read More

Would The Real Semiconductor Group Please Stand Up?

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, September 12, 2018 It was a day of bifurcation as it's difficult to sustain a rally when your two worst sectors are financials (XLF, -0.92%) and technology (XLK, -0.42%).  As you might expect, relative weakness was found on the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 as technology shares weighed, particularly those in internet ($DJUSNS, -1.63%) and semiconductors ($DJUSSC  Read More

9/12 MWL Recap: Guest Brian Livingston on "Saving with FinTech" - Spotlight Stocks

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the YouTube  Read More

Canada's $TSX Sits On The Edge

by Greg Schnell

The $TSX is negative for the year. The monthly chart of the $TSX made a lower high and a lower low in August. 1/3 of the way through September, we have lower highs and lower lows than August. A series of lower highs and lower lows is the definition of a downtrend. This can be seen in the zoom panel. We have been flirting with this long uptrend line shown in blue. This month it looks like  Read More

Henry Schein Starts to Shine

by Arthur Hill

Outside of company specifics, the broad market environment and the sector are the biggest influences of a stock's price. The S&P 500 hit a new high recently so we are in a bull market. The Health Care SPDR (XLV) also hit a new high recently and it is one of the leading sectors. This combination bodes well for stocks in the healthcare sector and I will highlight a breakout in Henry Schein  Read More

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The Little Engine that Could - A Mild Pullback - Risk Appetite and Six Stocks

by Arthur Hill

Large-Techs and Small-Caps Still Leading. QQQ Bounces as IJR Flags. Junk Bonds and International Indexes. Charts Worth Watching. On Trend on Youtube. .QQQ and IJR Still Leading Year-to-Date The major index ETFs are in long-term uptrends and short-term downtrends. There is no denying the long-term trend because we saw fresh 52-week highs in several major index ETFs  Read More