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Archived Posts

AT&T Forms a Classic Bullish Continuation Pattern

by Arthur Hill

The cup-with-handle is a bullish continuation pattern that forms as part of a bigger uptrend. There are three parts to this pattern. First, a cup forms as prices correct and rebound to form a "V" or "U" shape. Second, prices hit resistance at the prior high and rim resistance begins to form. Third, prices consolidate just below rim resistance and a handle takes shape. A break above rim  Read More

Wall of Worry

by Greg Morris

The "Wall of Worry" has been used for many decades to identify the period of time in the latter stages of a bullish run in the stock market, when all the naysayers start talking about a top.  I have witnessed this often.  As the bull ages, many start to think they can "call the top."  The financial media parades expert after expert showing economic or political situations in  Read More

Failure Of Treasury Yields Slow Financial Stocks

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, March 10, 2017 U.S. equities posted mostly strong results on Friday with a bit of relative strength from the more aggressive NASDAQ and Russell 2000.  The NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) posted the best percentage gain of all, but keep in mind that the NDX does not include financial stocks and that area suffered from the 10 year treasury yield's ($TNX) inability...  Read More

Heavy Construction Tests Support, Here's A Potential Winner

by Tom Bowley

The Dow Jones U.S. Heavy Construction Index ($DJUSHV) is currently testing its rising 20 week EMA and is near key support in its four month sideways consolidation range from 440-480.  Friday's close was 447 and the weekly RSI is now at 43, typically a solid level on the RSI where we see price reversals occur.  If the DJUSHV does, in fact, begin to recover and head back towards 480,  Read More

SPY: Short-Term Indicators Positive

by Carl Swenlin

Trying to attribute every market up or down tick to news/fundamental events is a fool's errand, but every once in a while the connection between seems pretty obvious. The day after President Trump's address to congress, the market gapped up in response; however, it immediately began a pullback over several days, which filled the gap and then some. Another issue after the up gap was that price  Read More

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The StockCharts Outlook Webinar Recording with Arthur, Greg and Tom

by Arthur Hill

The image above shows the outline for the StockCharts Outlook webinar. Arthur added some color to the Weekly Market Review & Outlook by going over the each chart and expanding in some areas. Namely, the difference...  Read More

NASDAQ 100 Index. A Current Case Study.

by Bruce Fraser

Point and Figure charts are generated from price volatility, unlike a vertical (bar) chart, which is plotted as a function of time. This is particularly valuable to Wyckoffians who are always on the search for a Cause being built. Causes lead to Effects; Accumulation results in Markup and Distribution turns into Markdown. Point and Figure analysis provides a method for estimating the potential...  Read More

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Review of the Weekly Charts - ST Indicators Turn Up

by Erin Heim

I was very surprised to see the S&P 100 avoid a PMO SELL signal this week. The other three indexes didn't leave this week unscathed. All three ST PMO SELL signals occurred this week. However, the OEX will likely give it up next week; it was only .01 away. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend  Read More

Lowes (LOW) Opens The Window To Fresh Highs - Checking Industry Group Strength Tip

by Greg Schnell

Last week, Lowes (LOW) gapped up and touched a fresh high above the 2016 highs. This week it has consolidated in a range but is holding up nicely as the markets wobbled. The 50 Million shares of volume for the week was the highest positive week candle in 3 years. On the price, notice the two year sideways consolidation between $60-$80. Nice to see the company doing well. It  Read More

Investor's Creed

by Gatis Roze

"An investor's methodology is inseparable from his or her emotional discipline.  Both must be defended and reinforced whenever either is threatened."  - Gatis Roze My trading is guided by a collection of beliefs and principles that direct my trading routines, actions and 'Investor Self' behavior.  Over the years, it's been a  process of deconstruction -  unbundling each...  Read More

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook - Looking at Performance Splits within the Market and Oversold ETFs - Webinar Link

by Arthur Hill

.... Market is Clearly Mixed as Some Groups Correct .... Small-caps and Mid-caps Lead the Correction .... New Highs Dry Up, but New Lows remain Low .... Over 70% of Stocks Still above 200-day EMA .... SPY Fills the Gap as QQQ Stalls at High Level .... IJR Falls Back into Corrective Mode  .... Consumer Discretionary Sector Reflects Split Market (XRT, ITB) .... Cloud, Internet and Software...  Read More

Weakening Aluminum, Steel And Gold Pressure Materials Stocks

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, March 9, 2017 The March 6th to 9th period once again produced not-so-good S&P 500 results.  The S&P 500 did break its recent string of losses, gaining two points on Thursday.  Technically, it bounced exactly where we would expect - off the rising 20 day EMA.  Take a look at the following chart: The blue directional lines show  Read More

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Market Advances Slightly - New PMO SELL Signal for the Dow Industrials

by Erin Heim

And another one down and another one down... The DP Scoreboards yielded another Short-Term PMO SELL signal; this time on the Dow Industrials. This week the market has been in a distinct declining trend so it isn't surprising to see these short-term BUY signals biting the dust. Look for a new PMO SELL signal on the OEX tomorrow. It is exceedingly close. I've included the annotated Dow chart  Read More

CNQ Acquires Oil Sands Assets From Shell - Boom!!!

by Greg Schnell

In a bombshell press release this morning, Royal Dutch Shell (RDS/A) announced it was selling all of its oilsands mining operations in Canada. On the other side of the agreement, was Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ.TO, CNQ). The size of this deal is not portrayed in the price. The assets changing hands are massive. Just the 100,000 barrel Expansion 1 back in...  Read More

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SystemTrader - Reducing Risk with a Portfolio Approach to Mean-Reversion Trading

by Arthur Hill

.... Failure for One Trader is Opportunity for Another .... Mean-Reversion Trades and Setups for IJR .... Backtesting Two Short-term Mean-Reversion Strategies .... Completed Trade and Current Setup for MDY .... Testing Five Major index ETFs  .... Trading a Portfolio to Reduce Risk .... Equity Curve and Drawdown Chart .... Conclusions Failure for One Trader is Opportunity  Read More

Commodities Countdown Video - 2017-03-09

by Greg Schnell

Lots of weakness in Commodities. I discussed the breakdown in Crude below the uptrend and below the horizontal support level. Commodities Countdown with Greg Schnell 2017-03-09 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Good trading, Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA.    Read More

Record Crude Inventories Sink Oil, S&P 500

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, March 8, 2017 The S&P 500 fell for a third consecutive day and it could have been five days in a row if not for a very small gain last Friday.  The culprit yesterday was quite clearly the oil patch.  The U.S. crude oil inventory surged higher by 8.2 million barrels to an all-time record high of 528.4 million barrels.  It was a...  Read More

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NEW PMO SELL Signal on $SPX/SPY - Oil Crashes Below Support - ITTM Neutral Signal for USO and GSG

by Erin Heim

Another one bites the dust. The NDX gave up its PMO BUY Signal on Monday. Today the S&P 500 followed suit. I recommend you check out today's DecisionPoint Report webinar where I discuss the status of the other PMO BUY signals on the Scoreboards. You'll also find the charts in the DecisionPoint LIVE Shared...  Read More

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INTEREST RATES CLIMB ALONG WITH THE DOLLAR -- INVESTMENT GRADE CORPORATES WEAKEN

by John Murphy

BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO CLIMB... Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield (TNX) climbing to 2.55% which is the highest level this year. The 2-Year Treasury yield (most sensitive to a Fed rate hike) has climbed to 1.35% which is the highest level in seven years. Odds for a Fed rate hike next week are just about 100%. Naturally, that's pushing bond  Read More

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Is The Global Bull Market In Interest Rates Resuming?

by Martin Pring

The global picture Short-term rates Longer-term rates International rates The Global Picture When I talk about interest rates I am referring to a general advance that takes place at both ends of the yield spectrum. I make this reference because in many situations certain maturities and credit qualities do not necessarily move in concert. That can be helpful because there are...  Read More

Microsoft Stalls within Uptrend as Stochastic Oscillator Starts to Turn

by Arthur Hill

It always piques my interest when a stock bucks the broader market. Note that SPY and QQQ closed lower the last two days and Microsoft (MSFT) closed higher. Even though it is only for two days, this little morsel of relative strength could foreshadow a bullish resolution to the current consolidation. First and foremost, note that Microsoft is clearly in a long-term uptrend. The price chart  Read More

The Canadian Market Loses Some Breadth - 2017-03-07 - Today In The Market Tip

by Greg Schnell

While the market awaits the Federal Reserves decision to raise interest rates next week, lots of things are happening under the surface. The bullish moves in the marketplace are now happening in the defensive sectors and we are seeing more and more information creating a warning for the market cycle. Here is a picture of the Bullish Percent Index (BPI) for the $TSX ($BPTSE).  Read More

Treasury Yield Shows Building Expectations For Next Rate Hike

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, March 7, 2017 Next Tuesday, another FOMC meeting begins with their policy decision announced next Wednesday.  Expectations are that we'll see another quarter point rate hike.  It's not a slam dunk and there are some who believe we should wait to see more economic strength before raising rates again.  I expect that the Fed will want to...  Read More

Careful With The Transports Here (IYT) - Data Adjustment Tip

by Greg Schnell

The Transports (IYT) made a subtle break in the Post - Election uptrend today. A couple of things show up here.  The SPX Relative Strength is at 4-month lows today.  The price has not made much progress since the December 8th high in the energy stocks. The 171 level looks like pretty good resistance as this chart is unable to stay above it. The trendline break today...  Read More