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Financial SPDR (XLF) Adds New IT Trend Model BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

Last week, the Consumer Discretionary/Cyclicals SPDR posted a new Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) BUY signal. Today, the Financial SPDR (XLF) joined in with its own ITTM BUY signal. In the long term, we can see that the only sectors with Long-Term Trend Model (LTTM) BUY signals are the defensive groups. It's certainly positive to see other sectors beginning to participate.  Why is it  Read More

Is The Pressure Relief Valve Starting To Release? $SPX

by Greg Schnell

Well, what's it going to be - up or down? The market made its high on Options Expiration Friday and has been unable to take out that high for 6 days. With AAPL trading up in after hours and other tech names to report this week, will we be able to push through that high? The market is very sticky here. For technicians, the bright light we see ahead is a freight train loaded with  Read More

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If The Economy Is Truly Weakening, Commodities Should Be Vulnerable

by Martin Pring

The Long-Term Trend for Commodities Remains Bearish What the Stock Market is Telling Us About Commodities Short-Term Picture Not So Strong Recently, we have seen several reports of a weakening economy. These include a sharp drop in both the University of Michigan and Conference Board consumer sentiment and confidence numbers, along with some deterioration in the ISM manufacturing  Read More

Defrosting the Markets: Thoughts on the January Barometer

by David Keller

I've written several articles regarding seasonal trends in the markets, including the four-year Presidential Cycle, the "Sell in May" phenomenon, and even  Read More

Wall Street Averts Meltdown Despite CAT/NVDA Warnings

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, January 28, 2019 It seemed like the bears let a perfect opportunity slip right through their fingers yesterday.  Caterpillar (CAT, -9.13%) reported their latest quarterly earnings before the bell and they weren't pretty.  Despite beating revenue estimates, CAT posted EPS well below estimates ($1.78 vs $2.98) and then warned about 2019 because of China concerns  Read More

1/28 MWL Recap: Guest Greg Schnell on Gold and China - Sentiment Update

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Our show is devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and analysis of hot symbols. The show runs throughout the day on  StockCharts TV; you can also find the latest episodes on the YouTube StockCharts  Read More

Another Gap for QQQ

by Arthur Hill

Last week (Monday) I featured an evening star reversal pattern in QQQ. This pattern did not foreshadow further weakness as QQQ firmed in the 161 area the next day and gapped up on Friday. This gap did not last long as QQQ gapped down on Monday morning and filled Friday's gap. We  Read More

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Charts to Keep an Eye on this Week

by Arthur Hill

Big Four Retake 50-day SMAs. %Above 200-day Lags for XLP. 52-week Highs for 22 REITs. Jobless Claims Hit 40+ Year Low. TLT Stalls between Key Levels. Dollar Fails to Hold Breakout. Gold Breaks out of Small Consolidation. Shanghai Composite Forms Potential Double Bottom. Delta Turns Indecisive. Tesla Goes from Leader to Laggard. Procter & Gamble Leads Colgate. Paypal and Square lead Visa and  Read More

Stocks Finish The Week On A Positive Note, But Overhead Resistance Remains

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, January 25, 2019 Our major indices rallied strongly on Friday, with 9 of 11 sectors rising to support the move.  Only two defensive sectors - utilities (XLU, -1.37%) and consumer staples (XLP, -0.40%) failed to participate in the advance.  Leading the charge was materials (XLB, +1.90%) as a weak U.S. dollar ($USD, -0.86%) encouraged traders to buy the  Read More

Bases Are Forming Inside The Great Wall

by Greg Schnell

There are a lot of bases forming currently inside the great wall of China. After suffering a huge downtrend, these charts are setting up for new buy signals each and every day. I'll be on StockCharts TV's MarketWatchers Live show (Monday, January 28th at noon ET) to talk about some of these setups, which have been particularly compelling given the recent pullbacks. Some  Read More

These Charts Show Some Likely Up-Moves Ahead

by Milan Vaishnav

Bharat Petroleum Ltd. (BPCL.IN) Having formed a bottom at 238.55 following a steep fall from 383.80, the stock has since formed gradual higher bottoms. Presently it remains in an Ascending Triangle pattern, which is a bullish formation. The RS Line, when compared against broader CNX500 is rising; it is above 50-DMA and this acts as an confirmation. The PPO has turned positive. The daily MACD  Read More

Gold - Really? Weekend Market Roundup 2019-01-26

by Greg Schnell

Gold Pops Oil gurgles Marijuana Miners move Lumber keeps building Indexes pause World markets outperform US markets On Friday, the Gold chart finally broke out of a five-week flag pattern. While gold was one of the best performers in the fourth quarter, it had paused while the equities rallied. Does Friday mark a meaningful trend change for Gold and a resumption of the bear for  Read More

Week Ahead: With F&O Expiry and Interim Budget In The Tow, Markets Set To Remain Volatile

by Milan Vaishnav

In spite of all expectations, NIFTY remained volatile and did not make any directional call over the previous week, oscillating in a defined 230-point range throughout. However, on the weekly charts, the NIFTY has been able to keep its head above the 50-Week MA, which is 10757. Additionally, the market returned all of its gains from the prior week as it ended down 126.40 points (-1.16%). The  Read More

DP Weekly Wrap: Rising Wedge Breakdown Sets Less Accelerated Rising Trend Line

by Carl Swenlin

Last week we were focused on the SPY rising wedge formation, the technical expectation for which was that it would break down. Well, on Tuesday it did break down, but there was no follow through afterwards. Instead, it moved sideways for two days, then rallied on Friday, challenging Monday's highs.  The result is that the wedge has almost transformed into a rising trend channel. I say  Read More

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook - A Race to the 200-day

by Arthur Hill

Big Move within Bigger Downtrend. The Bullish Turn of the Month. S&P 500 Could Challenge 200-day. Junk Bonds Surge to Breakdown Zone. Key Supports for Big Six Sectors. Bull Flags in ITB and XHB. Bonds Turning Up ahead of Fed. International ETFs Outperforming S&P. Big Move within Bigger Downtrend The S&P 500 is currently in the midst of its best monthly advance since January  Read More

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STOCK ADVANCE CONTINUES AS 50-DAY AVERAGES HOLD -- 200-DAY AVERAGES ARE NOW IN SIGHT

by John Murphy

MAJOR U.S. STOCK INDEXES HEAD TOWARD 200-DAY AVERAGES My Wednesday message expressed concern that several stock indexes were in danger of falling back below their 50-day averages, which would have put their January rebound in jeopardy. As today's first three charts show, however, the blue 50-day lines have held and the January rebound is continuing. All three major stock indexes now  Read More

Technology Leads Stocks Higher, But Faces Trendline Resistance Test

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, January 24, 2019 Semiconductor stocks ($DJUSSC, +5.10%) soared after a few key earnings reports in the group came in better than expected.  Xilinx (XLNX, +18.44%) and Lam Research (LRCX, +15.70%) were two of the best performers, but their results lifted much of the industry group, including Applied Materials (AMAT, +10.23%).  The strength in the DJUSSC  Read More

1/24 MWL Recap: Arthur Hill Breaks Down Tech ETFs - Chart Conundrums

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Our show is devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and analysis of hot symbols. The show runs throughout the day on  StockCharts TV; you can also find the latest episodes on the YouTube StockCharts  Read More

Defensive Sectors Starting Positive Rotations Again On Daily Relative Rotation Graphs

by Julius de Kempenaer

The Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors is showing a split picture. On the right, we have Utilities, Real-Estate, Consumer Staples and Healthcare. With the exception of Real-Estate maybe, these are generally accepted as "defensive" sectors. All other sectors (7) are positioned to the left of the benchmark (SPY). Not only is this universe split in terms of Jdk RS-Ratio level, but it is also  Read More

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XILINX LEADS SEMICONDUCTOR ISHARES TO THE HIGHEST LEVEL IN NEARLY TWO MONTHS -- LAM RESEARCH IS ALSO HAVING A VERY STRONG DAY

by John Murphy

SEMICONDUCTOR ISHARES TURN UP My message from yesterday showed semiconductor stocks under selling pressure. In today's trading, however, semis are having a very strong day and are the day's strongest stock group. Chart 1 shows the PHLX Semiconductor iShares (SOXX) jumping 5% to reach the highest level since early December. That puts the SOXX on track to challenge  Read More

Volatile Session Ends Mostly In Bullish Fashion

by Tom Bowley

Note I'm traveling today so my article will be abbreviated. Market Recap for Wednesday, January 23, 2019 It was a fairly volatile session on Wednesday as U.S. indices opened higher, but quickly fell fairly deep into negative territory before rallying in the afternoon.  Only the small cap Russell 2000 (-0.22%) failed to close in positive fashion.  The Dow Jones was the clear leader  Read More

Jack Bogle Reveals Investing Secrets in Tell-All Book - part 4

by Brian Livingston

Would you like to know how to have an extra 1 trillion dollars in your pockets? Bogle did it - and you can benefit. • By some estimates, the Vanguard Group lowered fees so much that its shareholders alone saved a cool $559 billion. In addition, the 'Vanguard Effect' forced competing fund providers to collectively lower their fees an equal amount. Fees you don't pay compound in your account. •  Read More

Water ($DJUSWU) Is The Leading Group Inside The Utilities Sector (XLU)

by Julius de Kempenaer

One of the pages that I often visit on Stockcharts.com is the sector summary. It gives a tabular overview of the price changes that occurred over a certain period (you can choose). From that page, it is possible to open a Relative Rotation Graph that breaks the sector down into industries. This enables you to look inside the  Read More

1/23 MWL Recap: Jeffrey Saut, Chief Investment Strategist at Raymond James - Spotlight Stocks

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Our show is devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and analysis of hot symbols. The show runs throughout the day on  StockCharts TV; you can also find the latest episodes on the YouTube StockCharts  Read More

DP Alert: Selling Initiation Signals - Dollar (UUP) New PMO BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

The DecisionPoint Scoreboards are all bullish in the short term. The bearish rising wedge executed yesterday and the indicators are supporting a decline in the shorter term. The DecisionPoint Alert presents a mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil and Bonds. Watch the latest episode of  Read More

1/22 MWL Recap: "Monday" Setups - The January Effect - Blog Highlights

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Our show is devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and analysis of hot symbols. The show runs throughout the day on  StockCharts TV; you can also find the latest episodes on the YouTube StockCharts  Read More

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Reversal Signs Appearing in SPY and TLT - XLC is Leading Lower

by Arthur Hill

SPY Forges a Gap-Gap Reversal What Makes this Wedge Break Significant? TLT Turns up from Oversold Levels. XLC is the First to Break. The mood of the market appears to be changing as stocks weaken and bonds strengthen. It looks like short-term trends are trying to reverse. The first chart shows the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) breaking the rising wedge boundary with a sharp decline on Monday. Note  Read More

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SEVERAL STOCK INDEXES ARE TRYING TO STAY ABOVE MOVING AVERAGE LINES -- CYCLICALS AND BIOTECHS ARE STRUGGLING WITH 200-DAY LINES

by John Murphy

A LOT OF MOVING AVERAGES ARE BEING TESTED Recent messages have focused on major U.S stock indexes reaching overhead resistance barriers which could slow their January advance; or maybe even end it. All of those major stock indexes remain below their 200-day averages; while their 50-day lines remain below their 200-day lines. That puts the onus on the bulls to push stock indexes high  Read More

Bearish Island Reversal Forms With Tuesday's Selling

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, January 22, 2019 Energy (XLE, -2.18%), communication services (XLC, -2.07%) and industrials (XLI, -2.07%) all fell more than 2% on Tuesday as Wall Street had its first significant retreat since the day that Apple (AAPL) warned.  Late day buying cut into losses as the Dow Jones rebounded from an intraday drop of 462 points to finish down slightly more than 300  Read More

A Rare Evening Star Forms in QQQ

by Arthur Hill

Despite a 15% surge the prior 17 days, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) remains below its flattening 200-day SMA and the ETF formed a rare evening star candlestick pattern over the last three days. First and foremost, I think the long-term trend is down for QQQ. The ETF recorded a 52-week low in December and  Read More

Chipotle Fires Up The Mexican Grille

by Greg Schnell

Chipotle has been building a very large base over the last couple of years. With Tuesday's move, it is now trying to break out above the consolidation.  The SCTR has resumed its strong presence, while the relative strength in purple continues to run to the upside. The full stochastic is showing strength here as the price sits at the breakout level. One of the indicators I like the most  Read More

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GLOBAL STOCKS DROP SHARPLY -- OVERBOUGHT S&P 500 BACKS OFF FROM TRENDLINE RESISTANCE

by John Murphy

GLOBAL STOCKS SELL OFF WHILE BONDS RALLY Stocks all over the world turned lower today. And they're doing it at a bad time. That's because the recent rebound has taken major U.S. stock indexes up to some formidable overhead resistance barriers. And they may be failing that test. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 backing off from two converging overhead trendlines. The  Read More

AAPL Campaign Completed

by Bruce Fraser

Because the Wyckoff Methodology identifies elements of structure and context within price (Accumulation and Distribution schematics and Phase Analysis), it naturally strengthens the attribute of patience in its user. There is a time to watch, a time to act, and a time to sit in a trending trade. Horizontal Point and Figure (PnF) analysis has a role to play in this trading process. The Law of  Read More

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Where's That Test Of The December Low?

by Martin Pring

Long-Term Trend Still Points South It Would be Unusual Not to Experience a Test of the December Low Dollar ETF Breaking Out? Last week, I pointed out that the major averages were running into resistance at a moment when they were moderately overbought. At the time, some form of a test of the Christmas low appeared to be a good possibility. However, the market thumbed its nose at my suggestion  Read More

Transportation Stocks Hold A Big Clue This Week

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, January 18, 2019 Continuing anticipation of a trade deal with China appeared to fuel very solid stock market action on Friday as all of our major indices pushed higher, as did all 11 sectors.  The Dow Jones and S&P 500 led the charge, gaining 1.38% and 1.32%, respectively.  Energy (XLE, +2.03%) led on a relative basis as crude oil ($WTIC) neared $54 per  Read More

Jack Bogle Reveals Investing Secrets in Tell-All Book - part 3

by Brian Livingston

Bogle's secret in building America's largest fund provider is setting it up from the beginning as a 'mutual' organization, similar to a worker's cooperative. • Vanguard doesn't own its funds, the funds own Vanguard and can make the firm lower its fees to benefit investors. It's a hilarious irony that Vanguard's socialist model has beaten Wall Street's wealth-management firms at their own game  Read More

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To Chase or Not to Chase?

by Arthur Hill

Volume is not What is Used to Be. 2008: Bear Bounce and Bullish Setup. 2010: Big Bounce and Big Pullback. 2011: Retracement and Bull Flag. 2014: October Volatility. 2015: Volatility and BREXIT Vote. 2019: What Now? On Trend on StockChartsTV. Volume is not What is Used to Be I went back over the last ten years to see what happened after a double digit surge in the  Read More

NIFTY Energy Sector Looks Up

by Milan Vaishnav

As the Indian equity markets remain under under an area formation, a clear breakout will continue to elude the NIFTY unless it can move past the 10950 level. With the markets still trapped in a range, the NIFTY Energy Index ($CNXNIFTY) provides some interesting observations. The NIFTY Energy Index formed a large double top formation between 2014-2017, breaking out on the upside  Read More

Weekend Market Roundup 2019-01-19 When Bulls Run Over Everything

by Greg Schnell

Bulls are in charge Breadth is excellent Looks like an initiation thrust Oil buy signal Asia buy signal FOMO - Fear of missing out is starting to kick in for institutional investors This has been a wonderful run for investors. Since the Santa Claus low, the market has gone up 13%! This bullish momentum is continuing and the fear of missing out is compelling investors to buy in.  Read More

3 Stocks Awaiting A Possible Earnings Explosion

by Tom Bowley

Analysts meet with the management teams of companies and then return to their firms and either buy or sell based on the information they gather.  It's the primary reason why technical price action precedes fundamental information.  If you understand the dynamics on Wall Street, you're in a much better position to profit from it.  Over the past 3-4 months, the stock market endured  Read More