The Canadian Technician

December 2011

The Canadian Technician

Time to get long Commodities? That what this chart is telling me...

by Greg Schnell

Sometimes Brevity makes a point. We'll try that tonight in one chart. A weekly chart. 4 years of data.   Let's examine the chart. Notice the top price box which is the Cdn $ ratio to the vix. When the Loonie outperforms the VIX, it is time to get long commodities. Notice the SPX : VIX chart has broken out as well. The vertical green lines are placed where the dotted lines were broken by the chart action. Is this denoting a major breakout like 2009 and 2010? Sure looks like it here. It looks like the SPX:TLT chart is breaking out too Read More 

The Canadian Technician

A Multicontinent review of the Banking sector -HoHoHo

by Greg Schnell

Let's check the dashboards for the banking sector to see if things are improving yet. Here is the Canadian Financial sector The MACD has a histogram just pushing above the zero line. That's promising. The Full sto's are trying to come out of oversold. That is usually a good entry. There has also been really strong volume for the last 3 weeks coming into Christmas. That's interesting. Still just below the 10 week MA. Here is the Cdn Banking dashboard.  CIBC, Royal and TD are above the 10 week Read More 

The Canadian Technician

What, a 42% one month gain? Yeah, over here in Oilfield service companies!

by Greg Schnell

Alberta is a hotbed for oilfield service companies. Today, it was a hotbed for investors. Let's briefly describe what an oilfield service company does. Nothing in the industry happens without them. When an oil company decides to drill a well, frac a well, or clean a well that has been plugged up by wax as an example, they call into this group of companies. Obviously there are many companies out there. Halliburton, Schlumberger, TriOcean, etc. are on the US side which is where these index charts are from. When a drilling rig goes on site, there is a huge number of components to move Read More 

The Canadian Technician

The Lumber Dashboards

by Greg Schnell

Here is a brief Commodities dashboard. While we all study Oil and Gas, $WTIC has a nice upslope. I am also interested in the coiling on the board lumber chart. We currently have four higher lows , and two lower tops. It is also still above the 10 week MA. That coiling is interesting. Here are the lumber stocks. Some of them have been much better than the volatile market. Notice how quiet the price action has been for the last 4 or 5 months. They have me interested. We'll see if $LUMBER ends up being a surprise in 2012.   Read More 

The Canadian Technician

The Canadian Dollar

by Greg Schnell

The Canadian dollar is a strong tracker of $WTIC. If oil pulls back here, the Canadian dollar could as well. This top chart does not have the Fibonacci levels. The one below does. You can see how the Fib levels help you find other areas of support on the chart. I'm staying with the ranges posted at the end of the last quarter. Double top level = 106 Intermediate ceiling =101 Major resistance =98 The Fib Levels, drawn on the chart  below come in at 95,91,88 Support = 92.50     Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$TSX Big Picture for year end

by Greg Schnell

We had a significant marker happen this week. Let's look at how to deal with it. First of all, here is a chart going back almost 14 years. Notice how significant it is when the 40 week crosses below the 70 week. Why the 70 week? Well, that is where the price gets supported during all the upswings and where it fails at the top. Lets zoom in on each of the times the orange line crossed the green line to the downside. Let's review three things on each chart. 1) What was a good sell signal? Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Has Retail topped before Christmas? Baah- HUMBUG! USA and Canada

by Greg Schnell

Time to do a little detail in retail. First of all, why are we on this subject? It's not big in Canada, but if retail is slowing we should be very aware. If retail is slowing before Christmas.there is gonna be a few growth stocks giving up some P/E. Full disclosure, I have trades on in this area and specifically with some of the stocks mentioned. First of all the USA $RXl the Retail Index for the USA Weekly Well let's talk about it. This chart looks sad. Check the price action heading into Christmas the last 2 Read More 

The Canadian Technician

A Bond Review

by Greg Schnell

Just a quick note tonight about bonds in this crucial time. 30 year, 10,5,2 year and the 3 month $IRX. Everything is still trading under the 10 week. On the two previous Euro Summits the $IRX - 3 Month Yield chart would rally briefly. This summit did not even motivate a rally and we closed the week on the bottom of the chart. The $USD is at an important place on the chart. Here is the Daily $USD. We are testing a breakout on this $USD chart. This breakout would imply lower prices for commodities. With the Fed meeting this Read More 

The Canadian Technician

This chart confirmed EVERY intermediate top/bottom in 5 years

by Greg Schnell

Well in a market that has 2% oscillations for breakfast, sometimes a step back can help. Today I have posted a mystery chart. This chart was given to  me on October 4th by one of the CSTA members.   What is it a chart of? Well that's a blank canvas. I think it needs a little annotating. How about a little more detail on the highs and lows. Pretty sweet. Now let's see what other data we can glean off the chart. Let's wipe the high/low data away. OK. This Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Nasdaq New Highs - New lows -Do you Know?

by Greg Schnell

If stocks are making new highs, that is pretty important. If stocks are making new lows, that is even more important. When you keep track of the highs minus the lows an interesting trendline is created . Stockcharts does a great job of publishing these. Below are two very interesting charts. I made the box on the right in the first chart to Measure the size of our current move. I duplicated the box a few times to compare the moves to the other declines in the new high - new low index.  Once there is this much momentum, it is important to recognize the potential size of the  Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Is LULU or LLL.to a buy or a sell - Doin' a drilldown!

by Greg Schnell

This will be a longer post. You might need a coffee! Here is LULU Weekly. Hummm, this chart needs a little annotation. We need a little background information.  How do great stocks signal their final top? Lets take some random examples. I want to take one of the greatest growth stocks of all time, not just a retail stock. Here is Microsoft. 10 years of weekly data through the 1990's. Obviously the stock split so many times so the prices look pretty darn cheap! Now, here is MSFT for the 2000's. Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Premarket vs. open market

by Greg Schnell

Here is the $SPX chart since the low of November 28th. The SPX has moved exactly 100 points from November 27th close to December 6th close. 89 points  of the 100 points  happened in the premarket if you include the first 5 minute candle of each day while the market opened. The remaining 11 points happened while the market was open. If you use time, 11 points took 94% of the time, and 89 points took 6% of the time. The reality is the shorts have closed their trades causing the surge at the open.  Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Natural Gas traders looking for Old Man Winter...

by Greg Schnell

Here is the Weekly for $NATGAS. Definitely at a place on a chart to look for an upside reversal. Bouncing off the 2 year low trendline. Here is the Daily. Here is our dashboard for the $NATGAS sector. Encana is still struggling below the 10 week. Interesting how every chart is different here. Some at new highs, some trying to break through  a 52 week ceiling, some trying to get off 2 year lowsreally a wild group. Remember to register for Ed Carlson at the CSTA in Calgary on December 13th. We have already Read More 

The Canadian Technician

World wide month end market review

by Greg Schnell

In three simple charts we can get a feel for the global picture. Well, the SPX spent a month getting back to where it finished last month. All other global markets on the above chart finished in the lower half of the monthly Bollinger Bands (BB). The Asian markets - $HSI - Hang Seng, The $SSec - Shanghai, $NIKK - Japanese Nikkei all closed on the bottom of the BB. The TSX is well below the centre of the BB, but it managed to return to where October closed. The $COMPQ - The Nasdaq - closed quite a bit lower than October but still closed in the Read More