The Canadian Technician

Finding Market Tops

by Greg Schnell

The Never ending question of timing the market is a technicians dream. Knowing when you have hit a high, knowing when you have hit a low. Or knowing your on the wrong side of the trade because the Fed just stepped in. Last week the Fed melted the banks and inflated the Gold bulls. Meanwhile the ECB is inflating the banks. So Technical analysis works well, but a major fed announcement just a week before a scheduled fed meetings, or announcing changes in policy while New York is on lunch keeps reminding us that a new piece of data can change expectations. One of the best at Read More 

The Canadian Technician

How bonds / currencies affect your stocks

by Greg Schnell

Once again, the USD currency is dominating the market moves today. Slight change in direction in the $USD, and everything followed. The recent pullback in the USD has been aggressive. BUt look at bounce off the fibonacci retracement line. Typically, when things pull back, they pull back to one of the 3 main fib lines. By only pulling back 38% this would mean the USD is probably still in a roaring bull market. We started with the Dollar Index up a full 1/2 cent today and that put negative Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Waves...what happened?

by Greg Schnell

  Today the blog is puzzled. Overbought indicators are rolling over Telling me to get out of Dodge. Price action.telling me to get out of Dodge. Actual price change, saying things are ok. Since the 19th, Flat, Flat, Up on a Monday, Down on AAPL Day, Up on Fed day, Down on CAT day, flat to finish the week out.     We did test above the October highs this week, but we closed lower than the weekly closing highs of October. The market topped October 27th Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Metals, materials, and money

by Greg Schnell

Well Yesterdays FOMC meeting was interesting. The data came out earlier than I was expecting.I was also surprised that the Fed was so focussed on generating inflation and avoiding deflation at all cost it seems. Was this QE3? Don't fight the Fed? The Metals market took that to heart. So did GOLD. Here are the commodity sectors. Every one moved above the trendline.Check out the commodities groups themselves. The Metals stock index is the thinner line, compared to the Gold miners  in Gold colour and Copper price in black. They started Read More 

The Canadian Technician

COPPER, GOLD, US DOLLAR... REALLY INTERESTING CORRELATIONS

by Greg Schnell

  Look at this collection of charts, all at an interesting place in time   Here is the $COPPER weekly. Notice the thin black line right at this $3.80 level. Here is $GOLD. Gold is right at the junction of the 10 week (50 day ) Moving average, the 40 week ( 200 day) ma, and the downtrend line. It is also constructing a double bottom base pattern which is Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Is the Ultimate reversal trade finally here?

by Greg Schnell

OK which one am I talking about?  THe Nat gas trade or the long bond trade? Well, it's the long bond trade. Here is a picture of the daily zoomed in on the latest time period. So this is clearly a breakout. Again, how can we trade it? Well, we have some choices but most of them are leveraged choices. Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Looking for trouble? Chart trouble that is....

by Greg Schnell

Today, Let me present a simple chart of the $SPX from February 1 to August 1,2011. Then let's use the logic for the TSX. Then we'll take it back to the SP500. If we narrow down a chart to a specific time period which marks the top of the market previously, can we use that data to help us find points of resistance in current markets? Let's find out. Above is the $SPX for the time the $SPX top took to build in 2011. By doing this, we can find out the volume by price information to see where the centre point might be. This tells us where the crowd is Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Natural Gas stocks...talk about lows...

by Greg Schnell

I'm driving through the gas fields of southern Alberta today. Temperature is -32 C or minus 25 F. How can Natural gas pricing stay this lowI don't know. But here is the real question. How low can these Natural gas stocks go? Can they continue to get bank loans if the cash flow dries up? Some companies produce a fluid called condensate with the natural gas which is even more valuable than regular crude oil due to the advanced chemicals contained in the condensate. So they have some wells that still make revenue, but wells that are called dry gas  are below profitability Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Gold - let's dig a little deeper - ok a lot deeper.

by Greg Schnell

$Gold This shiny metal is really keeping us guessing as to where it is going. Today marks another very important point on the chart. Let's drill into it and see what's going on. Here is the same chart zoomed in on the final year. Let's discuss the charts above before we look at other data. Obviously the long term chart shows a fabulous run. There are a few events that stick out on the top chart that we need to point out. 1) A final gasping push up like Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Canadian Sector Strength

by Greg Schnell

Here are the Canadian Sector charts. Here is the second group. Very interesting checking out the charts together. What do I see here? I see Rim heavily influencing the Tech chart for Canada at the top. Might be a trade, but its not for holding as the downtrend on the chart suggests. Energy seems to be basing here, but the pillaging of Natural gas pricing should put a limit on banks financing the energy sector. Probably the oil plays are ok, but this gas pricing problem could create a few wounded companies Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Gold- Optimistic or pessimistic Check the $BPGDM

by Greg Schnell

Here is the $BPGDM chart. This chart shows what percent of gold mining stocks are on a buy signal on a point and figure chart system. I am not bullish on $GOLD due to the $USD strength. But the indicators are saying buy the gold miners - or at least trade the index. Well, you can see it flipped the parabolic SARS on the chart today. This would be an entry signal. If you wanted to do this trade, you could buy the HUG.TO which is an ETF on gold miners. You could also buy the XGD.TO. Lots of other things to Read More 

The Canadian Technician

The Canadian Banks

by Greg Schnell

The Canadian Financial sector has been in the news lately and there have been some big gainers. Seasonally, they get a bid going into Canadia RRSP season. Interestingly, the BNS ticker was the strongest a few months back. Now the Royal Bank has literally launched higher.. There is a phrase that goes something like ' when even the dogs start barking, you know the rally is over.' I am not sure I agree, but it does make you pause.  The muted news out of Europe can only help.  Funny how European news goes to Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Nasdaq Earnings Learnings - What you need to know..

by Greg Schnell

Today I want to present one chart. This is the index for the top 100 stocks on the Nasdaq. The Ticker is the $NDX. Why does The Canadian Technician bother to plot the Nasdaq 100? Well, it tends to be a composite of some of the exceptional  stocks in Technology. But the second reason is, how clear the pattern of earnings releases shows up on this chart. The boxed area is the pinnacle of the earnings announcements. The red vertical line is the Options Expiration date. In the last 5 quarters, this market hasn't made any headway. It rallies into the earnings and sells off after the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

A New Year - Let's start with Dr. Copper

by Greg Schnell

Well, I had a great holiday and I hope you did too. We are back in the saddle, scrawling the blog for 2012! One of the first blogs I wrote was on Dr. Copper. I've attached that chart here. Well, 3 and 1/2 months later, we are back to the same level. Some higher some lower, but no net progress. Notice on the chart above, I have drawn in a horizontal line that has been a very important level for copper for 5 years now. Support and resistance have resided here in the big picture. Let's mark up the chart Read More