The Canadian TechnicianStockCharts.comExpert market commentary from StockCharts.comtag:stockcharts.com,2019-04-18:blog-102024-01-22T23:27:05ZA Red Bar on the Homebuilders ETFGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2023-08-18:post-262202023-08-18T13:00:00Z2023-08-18T13:00:00Z<p>Homebuilders have been on an unbelievably big run. Looking at two relevant ETFs, we can see that one is at prior highs, while the other broke out to fresh new highs. Let's start there.</p><p>XHB was recently at a prior high, and the ITB made newer highs. Amazingly, XHB -- the homebuilders ETF -- got within 0.01 cent of the prior high, then pulled back below the 10-week moving average on Thursday. Everything is still in an uptrend! The only real sign of weakness is the potential for a sell signal on the PPO.</p><ol><li>The SCTR is still at 97.0, which is very strong.</li><li>Relative strength compared to the $SPX is in purple, and is still near the highs. If it started to break the trend line from early April, that would be another signal of weakness.</li><li>Price stalled at the prior high.</li><li>Volume has been strong. This is after Thursday's move, and Friday's volume will be an Options Expiration, so it could have a big volume bar to finish the week.</li><li>Full stochastic shows price still trading in the top of the range for the last 3 months of the year, so no real new news there.</li><li>PPO is trying to hold on the uptrend, but will be very close to a sell signal.</li></ol><p>That's a pretty strong basket of signals.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/08/17/e7ce104d-5035-41a4-8876-a36d0cc2b469.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XHB&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&i=p56034788503&a=1482523538')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>ITB, the home construction ETF, looks a little different this week. Namely, this is the first red week on the price panel since the lows of last October! Price is still holding on the trend line, but the red bar is a warning. </p><p>All of the other trends recorded on the chart above are intact, with one exception: the PPO is already on a sell signal. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/08/17/9fc047ae-2596-4a62-ad52-7ed158b69552.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ITB&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&i=p44820980424&a=1482522721')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The real question to ask for me is whether or not this is the end of this big trend. I don't know if it is or not, but all the trends are being tested. It's a good time to be careful, in case it starts to break down.</p>Homebuilders have been on an unbelievably big run. Looking at two relevant ETFs, we can see that one is at prior highs, while the other broke out to fresh new highs. Let's start there.XHB was recently at a prior high, and the ITB made newer highs. Amazingly, XHB -- the homebuilders ETF -- got within 0.01 cent of the prior high, then pulled back below the 10-week moving average on Thursday. Everything is still in an uptrend! The only real sign of weakness is the potential for a sell signal on the PPO.The SCTR is still at 97.0, which is very strong.Relative strength compared to the $SPX is...Copper Stocks Have Lots Of VolatilityGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2023-08-04:post-261412023-08-04T16:59:33Z2023-08-04T15:02:35Z<p>Over the last few weeks, metals have been swinging wildly. I have been following Copper and Gold, and it has been a wild ride, to say the least. I'll cover off Copper and related miners today. As we wait for the world of electric cars to consume every ounce of copper, the focus for copper mining and production remains high as inventories remain low.</p><p>One of the metal mining ETFs is CPER, which trades like copper. It broke out to a higher high in mid-July, continuing a series of higher lows and highs, only to gap back down on Monday, July 17th. After a sideways week, copper surged on July 25th and tested the prior highs. In a choppy week, copper darted around but closed near the highs. On Monday, July 31, Copper surged higher with a clear break above resistance. By Wednesday, all sense of a new high was gone and copper was back below the 100-MA.</p><p>There is a trend of rising highs and rising lows. The volume has been improving, but the volume this week was well outside the June period. With the PPO rolling over onto a sell signal to end the week, it's an awfully hard trade to hold.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/08/04/9386fa9b-ccb0-4255-8191-8436cb5c2bae.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CPER&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=10&i=p94423982523&a=1473082457')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The hard part is copper is making higher highs and higher lows, but every day is a sudden move that's either supportive or damaging, making it hard to hold. While many investors might not own copper directly, some copper miners have been a robust trade, making higher highs.</p><p>The chart below is COPX, which is the copper miners ETF. Clearly, a case can be made for higher highs and higher lows. The difficult part is the opening gaps up and down every day. The high volume bars seem to be indicative of short-term tops. Now that the COPX ETF is back on a sell signal on the PPO, is it worth holding the metals throughout the third quarter?</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/08/04/6909cc1c-0b76-4178-b3e7-9acb02e957f2.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=COPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=10&i=p17652847541&a=1473086615')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>When I look at names like Freeport-McMoran (FCX) and Southern Copper (SCCO), their charts look good. The FCX chart has been pushing higher since June 1 through to July 31, but the PPO is rolling over onto a sell signal again. Which way will price go now?</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/08/04/e7353288-a472-495e-af6a-a62a53c654e2.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FCX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=10&i=p17309936302&a=1473090226')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Looking at SCCO, this chart is even nicer. The stock is up 56% from late November 2022 and broke out to new 52-week highs last week! However, the PPO looks like it is ready for a sell signal.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/08/04/b38617b5-3a62-4134-9da0-ea41ee93c7e6.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SCCO&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=10&i=p19955460441&a=1473090238')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;">The bottom line is that the copper stocks have been hard to hold and, with the indexes starting to retrace, the best gains in copper names might be behind us for a few months. It is so frustrating, as the stocks are just starting to make higher highs, but then rolled over in earnest to start August.</p>Over the last few weeks, metals have been swinging wildly. I have been following Copper and Gold, and it has been a wild ride, to say the least. I'll cover off Copper and related miners today. As we wait for the world of electric cars to consume every ounce of copper, the focus for copper mining and production remains high as inventories remain low.One of the metal mining ETFs is CPER, which trades like copper. It broke out to a higher high in mid-July, continuing a series of higher lows and highs, only to gap back down on Monday, July 17th. After a sideways week, copper surged on July...Investors Continue To BelieveGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2023-07-28:post-261022023-07-28T23:31:04Z2023-07-28T16:00:07Z<p>The market has continued higher. Period. Despite all the warnings, markets continue to push higher.</p><p>Below is the view over the last month. You can see the dates of each chart in the top left corner and the number of trading days in the lower right corner.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/07/28/984c9e81-c976-461b-b846-2aa9b916d108.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Every sector was a winner for this month of July. Real estate has been one of the top sectors for two of the four weeks, but it has been as weak as discretionary overall. Commodities had a rough first 1/2, but energy is starting with a strong month of July. Energy has a lot of catching up to do to reach the extremes of the semiconductor industry performance.</p><p>In first half of 2022, energy stayed strong while tech fell away from the leadership position. 2023 has seen an abrupt reversal of that. The chart below is year to date for 2023.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/07/28/3d8038ed-b9c8-43ab-8ba0-aa29fe268d7e.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>However, since June 1st, some of the main commodity ETFs have been stronger than the tech universe. The exploration and production ETF is currently doubling the performance of the IGV software ETF, SMH the semiconductor ETF, or XLC the communications ETF.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/07/28/f6e16f9f-f620-45e6-952c-80146048efe5.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>As oil touches $80, is there more in the tank? I would suspect so, as the global energy trade has gone from worst to first again. But the relentless discussion around AI continues to add strength to the tech sector, including semiconductors, electrical components and software. It is not a matter of being right or wrong, but the continual shift of what is the strongest lately makes it hard for everyone to always be in the best areas of the market.</p>The market has continued higher. Period. Despite all the warnings, markets continue to push higher.Below is the view over the last month. You can see the dates of each chart in the top left corner and the number of trading days in the lower right corner.Every sector was a winner for this month of July. Real estate has been one of the top sectors for two of the four weeks, but it has been as weak as discretionary overall. Commodities had a rough first 1/2, but energy is starting with a strong month of July. Energy has a lot of catching up to do to reach the extremes of the semiconductor...Use These Indicators to Help with ExitsGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2023-07-21:post-260622023-07-21T19:40:11Z2023-07-21T16:34:36Z<p>When investors get attracted to one industry, the move can be relentlessly good. Over the years, we have seen semiconductors, software, IT security, cloud, payment systems, and EVs all go on significant runs, to name a few examples.</p><p>I doubted homebuilders as the mortgage rates continued to climb. But the reality is the demand for these shares has been insatiable. This table is the year-to-date move in the homebuilders, and it's remarkable! Check out the % change column!</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/07/21/5195da03-ef84-45c1-a2d0-f1505ea7d6ee.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Below, I have assembled charts of some of the homebuilders.</p><p>The SCTR (StockCharts Technical Ranking) proprietary StockCharts indicator can make outperformance really clear. I think it is worth commenting on how helpful this can be. The SCTR ranking on every one of these homebuilder stocks has been pinned at the top.</p><p>I like to draw a line on the SCTR at 75%. My logic for that line is that when stocks are above it, they are in the top quartile of positive price action compared to their peers.</p><p>Eventually the group will break down. How will we know? Eventually, they will no longer outperform. One of the longest periods of outperformance shown by the SCTR was on Tesla (TSLA) at 15 months, as an example. It is rare air when a stock holds up for more than three quarters. </p><p>On each chart, I'd like to highlight a few reasons to look at the SCTR, as well as other indicators. </p><p>1) The SCTR will drift below 75, but it is usually a late indicator for showing when the run in the stock is over. When the group starts to underperform, that is a very good clue that the stocks <em>could</em> start to perform in line with the $SPX, but, more likely, falls to underperformance. Eventually, momentum investors will sell the average performance and move to stronger stocks. This change of ownership can create weakness in the chart.</p><p>2) My purple area chart shows the relative strength (RS) compared to the $SPX. When a run is over, this indicator will start to break trend first. The trend line break is a clue that the outperformance is changing. As the indicator starts to break to three-month lows, it is more of a concern.As this happens, I like to have a strategy for taking profits. If all the stocks start to break the $SPX RS trend, it is worth trying to figure out if any of the big winners should continue to be held. The goal is to get out near the top, not round trip the gains by stubbornly holding on.</p><p>3) The moving averages are currently under the price action on all these charts. Eventually, the prices will start to drift below the moving averages. This is a more traditional approach of looking for price weakness.</p><p>4) The PPO on the daily chart will start to spend time below zero. I haven't put the weekly charts in this article, but when the weekly PPOs start to drift below zero, it's a better clue that the miraculous run is ending.</p><p>I've posted the charts with little commentary and let the trends on the charts speak for themselves. The stocks all pulled back this week, but is this the end of the run? All the charts are holding above important trend lines and bull market characteristics, but a few are starting to test some of the trend lines.</p><p>One of the homebuilder CEOs sold $50 million in stock in July. Do they see something we don't see yet? My suggestion would be to watch what investors do. It will be subtle, but it will eventually happen. I definitely don't want to waiting for earnings to slow. The stock will be off 50% by then.</p><p>These indicators help me keep the majority of my profits when trends change. I hope you'll find some of these clues helpful. If you click on the charts, you can see all the settings I use. If you come back to this article in a few weeks or months, you'll be able to see how the trend changes near the end.</p><h2>DR Horton (DHI)</h2><p>Beautiful uptrend from bottom left to top right. Still holding the up trend.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/07/21/fc4384f7-b126-4cef-bb7a-8a27695e651e.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DHI&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p08485667989&a=1460811600')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>Hovnanian (HOV)</h2><p>Long trend still holding.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/07/21/53929411-5f32-4005-84b2-ce4ee80d632b.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HOV&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p05372294563&a=1460812030')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>KB Homes (KBH)</h2><p>Long trend is still intact.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/07/21/f0faaae2-09f8-4a98-8139-4317be03e804.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KBH&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p88624938148&a=1460812891')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>Lennar (LEN)</h2><p>Lennar is still holding the long trend.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/07/21/d9c46ceb-928d-4640-adc3-f57d4bc71c76.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LEN&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p13204169699&a=1460812585')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>Pulte Group (PHM)</h2><p>Long-term trend is still intact.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/07/21/039a9ccb-dd84-47d5-8e37-e1c1909c9d00.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PHM&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p61735803221&a=1460810880')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>Taylor Morrison Home Corp (TMHC)</h2><p>Beautiful long trend. The PPO is making lower highs on every rally, and so is losing some of the momentum.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/07/21/36c7cdde-1c1b-4a82-96d6-886769468a17.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TMHC&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p42455382763&a=1460811840')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>Toll Brothers (TOL)</h2><p>Short-term trends breaking, but longer-term trend is still intact.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/07/21/265f85ec-2018-4dca-b879-7bf31fd26208.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TOL&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p83269173583&a=1460811469')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>You can click on these charts in a few weeks and see if conditions are changing.</p><p>One of the reasons we focus on the performance within an industry group is to help us see changes in market rotation. Within the Osprey Opportunities section of the <a href="https://ospreystrategic.org" target="_blank">Osprey Strategic website</a>, we post charts within different themes to help our clients find excellent setups.</p><p>In the book <em>StockCharts for Dummies</em>, I focused on different methods to see relative strength. You might like this as a resource book that explains relative strength.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/07/21/847d4b00-7847-4fea-8807-5f42b2fa5277.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Below is a sample picture of the Osprey Opportunities page for our members. Each image links you into a chartlist of stocks with nice setups based on a theme or industry group.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/07/21/151ee0f0-887e-4c44-aaa5-0defcb5f42b6.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>If you like the work we do, I'd welcome the opportunity to show you what our members see. You can try out our offering at <a href="https://ospreystrategic.org" target="_blank">Osprey Strategic</a> for just $7. We do broad market analysis, macro themes, individual industries, currencies, commodities, bonds, equities and a small but informative amount on Crypto.</p><p>Have a great weekend!</p>When investors get attracted to one industry, the move can be relentlessly good. Over the years, we have seen semiconductors, software, IT security, cloud, payment systems, and EVs all go on significant runs, to name a few examples.I doubted homebuilders as the mortgage rates continued to climb. But the reality is the demand for these shares has been insatiable. This table is the year-to-date move in the homebuilders, and it's remarkable! Check out the % change column!Below, I have assembled charts of some of the homebuilders.The SCTR (StockCharts Technical Ranking) proprietary StockCharts...Emerging Market Bond Fund ETFs Look GoodGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2023-07-14:post-260302023-07-14T23:55:57Z2023-07-14T22:27:50Z<p>US bond yields dropped sharply this week.</p><p>Below is the 2-year yield. One of the important technical characteristics of the chart is a double top. When a chart tests a prior high, we want to see if it succeeds or fails at the prior level that was resistance once before. Clearly the 2-year stopped and did a hard reversal. This pattern suggests the recent top could be a more intermediate top for the bond market, rather than just a short-term stall in price action.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/07/14/463a9813-49c7-4472-9247-e07b2aa8e514.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST2Y&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p18444268566&a=1455493679')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>With such a big focus on equity market gains recently, perhaps the bond market is waking up. The short-term notes have higher yields than longer-term bonds, which means the yield is inverted. You would expect a lender to get a higher rate of interest for loaning further out into the future. When they don't get that premium, it is called an inverted yield curve.</p><p>What I noticed about the yield chart for the USA was the speed of the decline this week. The 2-year yield is down 40 basis points, or almost 10% from last week's high. The 3- and 5-year yields were down even more on a percentage basis!</p><p>The spread between the 5-year yield and the 30-year yield last week was more than 30 basis points. On Thursday, the difference was just 3 points, so the spread dropped 90%. If we have put in the highs for the bond yields, that means we have put in the lows for the bond prices. Even if the bond market continues to drift sideways, the investor is still collecting a significant yield. But if we do have a recession next year, and typically the bond prices will rise as the Fed lowers rates, paying us yield and capital gain.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/07/14/a7bcf9f9-851c-464c-b9b5-bc6c30122a6a.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST30Y&p=D&st=2022-12-31&i=p96287902745&a=1121722613')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><a href="https://youtu.be/MTD3lfZZV-4" target="_blank">On the <em>Market Buzz</em> episode this week</a>, I showed how the rest of the world equity charts were starting to slip. Will this perhaps start a rotation into bonds in foreign markets?</p><p>I started to hunt down some foreign government bond ETFs perking up. There were some bond charts that showed up as more interesting than in recent weeks. As an example, emerging market bond fund ETFs look good based on the charts. One of the things to watch for: if bond prices start to rally, will we have equity market weakness?</p><p>This leads to two scenarios:</p><ol><li>If the rest of world is entering the recession before America, perhaps their government bonds are starting to move higher, which could provide a regular dividend payment and capital gains.</li><li>On the other hand, if the recession fears are overblown, then some of the other high yield or corporate bond charts might improve more as the central banks pause or start lowering rates.</li></ol><p>Let's look at both ideas below.</p><h2>Emerging Market High Yield Bonds</h2><p>The case for emerging market high yield bonds getting better is shown below.</p><p>The chart ticker is EMHY. The chart is high yield emerging markets. This chart pays a 7% dividend and is starting to break out to the upside; that suggests an improving outlook.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/07/14/1f6e81af-10f8-4544-884b-84e50da94b0e.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EMHY&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&i=p64629518999&a=1455171188')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>Corporate Bonds</h2><p>The next chart is for emerging market corporate bonds, but not high yield (higher risk). This chart is also turning up, and made the highest high since February. It pays a 4.4% dividend. Are the emerging market economies starting to improve as both of these charts are looking good?</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/07/14/6171cd0f-5026-400a-9012-80319def6199.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CEMB&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&i=p46797037026&a=1455175073')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>Government Bonds</h2><p>Now, if the emerging market world struggles, as their equity charts appear to be saying, it might be better to buy emerging market government bonds in an economic downturn. In 2022, we had an interesting year, as both bonds and equities fell together. Usually, we tend to see bonds do well when stocks are weakening. If we are going back to a normal rotation, perhaps we'll see the interest in government bond markets perk up. As yields fall, bond prices rise. Capturing a yield, as well as capital appreciation, makes the trade work out nicely. The yield is 5.4% on this government bond ETF!</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/07/14/14fddcf6-0315-4241-91d5-a81b3573dcfa.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VWOB&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&i=p24391565165&a=1455179732')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>What these charts suggest to me is that the highs for the emerging market bond yields are in, and we are starting to see bond prices rise. Will high yields continue to go higher with government bonds?</p><p>Every week, the stock market continues to surprise on the upside. We have been talking about the big moves up in commodities over the last few weeks. I'll have a lot more ideas after rolling through the charts this weekend. If you would like to sample our work, there is a $7 one-month trial subscription offer that you can try at <a href="https://OspreyStrategic.org" target="_blank">OspreyStrategic.org</a>. This will also allow you to read up on our past newsletters and watch our previous videos. </p><p>One of the things our members have found helpful is the Osprey Opportunities page, with good looking charts provided based on themes or industries.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/07/14/878ad250-399a-4dc8-bd1c-eb0188df27a7.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>I think you'll find using the Osprey Opportunities pages to be helpful. Feel free to try it at <a href="https://ospreystrategic.org/" target="_blank">OspreyStrategic.org</a><span target="_blank"> for just $7!</span></p>US bond yields dropped sharply this week.Below is the 2-year yield. One of the important technical characteristics of the chart is a double top. When a chart tests a prior high, we want to see if it succeeds or fails at the prior level that was resistance once before. Clearly the 2-year stopped and did a hard reversal. This pattern suggests the recent top could be a more intermediate top for the bond market, rather than just a short-term stall in price action.With such a big focus on equity market gains recently, perhaps the bond market is waking up. The short-term notes have higher yields...Crypto Names Continue to SoarGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2023-07-07:post-259812023-07-07T19:58:02Z2023-07-07T18:19:58Z<p>Crypto is one man's anti-soul, and another man's guiding light.</p><p>Crypto seems accurately defined as a take on Superman's kryptonite, where just being near it has a negative connotation to some investors. Stored in a remote wilderness, and hidden from view, others love the unique traits of cryptocurrency. Most investors have tried to figure out if it's a game of selling to a higher loser, or something worth investing in.</p><p><span class="image-caption"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/07/07/89f4f93a-1b26-445a-bffa-8a9a29576205.jpg"><span class="image-caption">Image: courtesy of Pixabay</span></span>Crypto is up 80% on the year, and working through the 30000 level to start the second half of the year. The article today talks about some of the setups and different ways to invest around crypto until the US SEC allows direct ETFs. </p><p>What better way to kick off the Calgary Stampede than looking for some bullish crypto setups? Sometimes, just trying to rope them in is tough.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/07/07/5751c8d9-b2da-4462-be08-8de2afa87a9c.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"><span class="image-caption">Image: Greg Schnell</span></p><p>After three weeks of sideways movement, what is the trend for Bitcoin? Flat?</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/07/07/e3ec6558-07f8-4334-8f08-2f6ff0181e19.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&i=p57195912984&a=1449528724')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>American regulators are looking at allowing crypto ETFs. Canada already has crypto ETFs, but, as I mentioned, there are also other ways to play it. </p><h2>Individual Stocks </h2><p>Hut 8 Mining (HUT, HUT.TO) continues to climb, working its way up. Bitcoin is sideways, and this chart is going up at a 45-degree angle. It's almost a double since the middle of June.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/07/07/d10b1786-127c-4a5d-8993-b3c443d568e7.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HUT&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p02642117524&a=1449527535')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>ARBK is another nice setup. Argo Blockchain has been consolidating similar to Bitcoin, and the stock is paused right at the 200-DMA. Thin trading is one caution.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/07/07/e5d4d5dc-0c76-48eb-ab71-b5e960a9f0f0.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ARBK&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p41488511830&a=1449532167')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Galaxy Digital (GLXY.TO) is a Canadian ticker, where the chart has built a beautiful base.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/07/07/4a6ddabe-648d-4c29-8c8d-22501eea6bb9.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLXY.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&i=p72051617595')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Coinbase (COIN) continues to push higher, and also has some significant volume.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/07/07/231662c8-9a75-4aa1-89a0-63a8b9bfe56e.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=COIN&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p57893297425&a=1449548640')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Dwight Galusha, who works with me, has built a list of charts to invest around the crypto trade, and we've published a complete Crypto opportunity list to help investors choose from some of the best charts. If you'd like more suggestions on good setups, I strongly recommend trying the Osprey Strategic trial for one month at only $7. It will give you all the current and historical newsletters and videos, along with daily setups and the comprehensive Osprey Opportunities page.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/07/07/d1772ad0-334b-44d2-bb6f-f2698f06a337.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>P.S. It's the start of the Calgary Stampede! Which marketing slogan is better?</p><p> 1) "The Greatest Outdoor Show on Earth"</p><p> 2) 'The most fun you can have with your boots on!"</p><p>The bottom line is that it's time to kick off the second half of the year, so get out and enjoy!</p>Crypto is one man's anti-soul, and another man's guiding light.Crypto seems accurately defined as a take on Superman's kryptonite, where just being near it has a negative connotation to some investors. Stored in a remote wilderness, and hidden from view, others love the unique traits of cryptocurrency. Most investors have tried to figure out if it's a game of selling to a higher loser, or something worth investing in.Image: courtesy of PixabayCrypto is up 80% on the year, and working through the 30000 level to start the second half of the year. The article today talks about some of the...The Second Half Equities Super BowlGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2023-06-30:post-259482023-07-01T02:42:49Z2023-06-30T18:30:30Z<p>The 2023 Super Bowl was a great one. It started with a strong first half for the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles fans were soaring with delight as the teams headed to the locker rooms, while KC fans were dejected by the outstanding performance of Jalen Hurts. With Kansas City down 10 points and Mahomes on a damaged ankle, it looked best to stay with what was working and winning.</p><p>Then Rihanna performed the halftime show in a larger than life production, complete with floating platforms.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/30/57977b13-a573-44fb-9746-984c8e5eff7f.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><span class="image-caption">Image by Greg Schnell</span></p><p> In hindsight, it looked like each platform was placed for the odds of an Eagles win. The top of the arc was the half time show and each successive KC touchdown dropped the Eagles' odds of winning.</p><p>In the second half, Kansas City scored 3 touchdowns and Philadelphia scored 11 points to make it a tie ball game with a couple of minutes to go. It all came down to the final field goal, and KC kicked to win with 8 seconds left.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/30/ba2fa02a-b93f-49fc-8c39-55e9df83150a.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><span class="image-caption">Image by Greg Schnell</span></p><p>It was a thriller. An emotional roller coaster. It came up just short of being the highest-scoring Super Bowl of all time. It had it all. Foregone conclusions, one-sided performances, new names jumping to the top of football lore. It had close calls, bad calls, heartbreaking moments, and stunning redemption.</p><p>In a way, it reminds me of the first half of 2023 for the investing landscape.</p><h2>The first half of investing for 2023</h2><p>We have seen one of the best Nasdaq first-half performances since the 1980s. The foregone conclusion of a recession has been invisible. One-sided performances were in the mega-cap names, while other markets like the Russell 2000 didn't go anywhere.</p><p>The technology and discretionary sectors were strong leaders, but who expected Meta (META) in the communications sector to be one of the crazy winners? Meta went from $380 down to $90, and then ran up the field to $290. AI became the new buzzword. Software and semiconductors had their redemption after an awful 2022.</p><p>Banks looked like they were going to plummet under the weight of the sudden interest rate increases, but it was a close call that didn't unwind any further.</p><p>The first half of the 2023 investing season was dominated by the large-cap players. Apple (AAPL) tagged the $3 trillion market cap on the last play of the half. Compared to the $SPX, the leadership was focused on the first three sectors for a bull market.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/30/bee57f7b-f4bb-4516-9f46-2b2ad74014e6.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>I think it is important to notice the industrials and materials were the next-best performers. This chart has the growth sectors on the left, and the defensive sectors are on the right. Energy and utilities were the worst, but financials and healthcare were not far behind.</p><h2>The Second Half Group of the Growth Sectors</h2><p>Looking in on the next sectors after the winning three, there are some positive signs emerging. An example would be the industrial chart breaking out to new highs to start the second half.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/30/85725211-a35d-47c8-a436-f932099d530a.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLI&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p37096045872&a=1445130708')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>XLB is threatening to break the downtrend to kick off the third quarter. I've used a line chart, as there were a couple of extra-long intraweek price bars that didn't look like part of the trend. Both charts, bar and line charts, convey the same message. We are close to an upside breakout.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/30/3f0e971a-78ec-4182-965a-9d415fcef2db.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLB&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p99289074990&a=1445130870')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>For energy, the XLE (broad energy ETF) doesn't look as close to a breakout as the XOP (exploration and production) chart. The XOP is breaking out the last couple of days.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/30/7fda948e-e917-4a5d-b5f6-23d464720181.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLE&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p25123613001&a=1445149987')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Here is the XOP.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/30/3a4135ab-bc62-4aca-8a04-24902bc9bba1.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XOP&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p84855332136&a=1445150145')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>The Halftime Show</h2><p>We are now halfway through the year. I'll be doing the halftime show on the monthly conference call at <a href="https://ospreystrategic.org" target="_blank">Osprey Strategic</a> on Saturday morning. New clients will be able to listen to recording and can try out everything we offer for just $7 for the first month. My expectation is the next three sectors should make for a fabulous second half, and I'll lay out the reasons why during the conference call and the weekly newsletter.</p>The 2023 Super Bowl was a great one. It started with a strong first half for the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles fans were soaring with delight as the teams headed to the locker rooms, while KC fans were dejected by the outstanding performance of Jalen Hurts. With Kansas City down 10 points and Mahomes on a damaged ankle, it looked best to stay with what was working and winning.Then Rihanna performed the halftime show in a larger than life production, complete with floating platforms.Image by Greg Schnell In hindsight, it looked like each platform was placed for the odds of an Eagles win...The Best Since 2000!Greg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2023-06-23:post-259152023-06-23T23:49:10Z2023-06-23T23:31:43Z<p>2023 has seen a significant thrust in tech names. The recent run in semiconductor and software stocks are great examples of market thrusts. The market has split into different vehicles, and we are currently riding the AI vehicle to higher highs.</p><p>One of the tools I like to use to analyze stocks and indexes for momentum is the PPO.</p><p>Back in 2021, the $NDX index had a PPO surging to very high levels on the monthly chart. It was the highest level in 20 years, and suggested caution. When it rolled over, it was quite important to respect that. The PPO turned up to a buy signal this month, so that looks more bullish.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/23/d5516c7b-8d65-4780-8d59-44fceef49156.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NDX&p=M&st=1987-01-10&en=2023-06-23&i=p74845709756&a=1440175057')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>When I look at the mega-cap tech names, some of the charts are ramping up nicely, like TSLA. The weekly PPO is surging, and this looks like it could run to much higher levels. There is not a limit for the PPO, but when it rolls over on a weekly chart, it can be a clue to be more protective of gains.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/23/6db983f3-244b-4505-9584-3e4edd4e9850.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TSLA&p=W&yr=12&mn=0&dy=0&i=p27571734951&a=1440177850')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>When I look at MSFT, the PPO is significantly higher compared to history. Only in 2010 (which was after a major bottom) have we reached this level of momentum in this century. We are testing the prior high, so it's probably a good place to be cautious. Nothing wrong with waiting for MSFT to give a little pullback.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/23/283a5f4a-fa09-4622-90c6-d955fbccdf0c.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MSFT&p=W&yr=25&mn=0&dy=0&i=p18457426449&a=1440092435')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Looking at NVDA, we have a significant surge as well. This is higher than anything since the turn of the century! The volatility of NVDA back in 2000-2002 gave you great trading opportunities. The real opportunity was in taking profits at high levels. That does not mean sell your stock here, but it does suggest having a plan for protecting profits.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/23/df69a6c3-77b8-416a-9218-9b37f562c814.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NVDA&p=W&yr=25&mn=0&dy=0&i=p09069126019&a=1440092078')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>What it suggests to me is that some of these charts are too extended for new positions. Feel free to analyze other mega-cap names for where they are relative to history. I had 46 charts on the $SPX with high PPOs, but that is only 10% of the index. Some are still rising, some are cresting, and some are well on their way lower.</p><p>It's only been one week of selling, but it is important to recognize that these charts might be ready for a bigger breather.</p><p>If you like the work we do, feel free to go over to <a href="https://OspreyStrategic.org" target="_blank">OspreyStrategic.org</a> and consider a $7 one-month trial. I'll be detailing some other indicators in the weekend newsletter. Enjoy the week.</p>2023 has seen a significant thrust in tech names. The recent run in semiconductor and software stocks are great examples of market thrusts. The market has split into different vehicles, and we are currently riding the AI vehicle to higher highs.One of the tools I like to use to analyze stocks and indexes for momentum is the PPO.Back in 2021, the $NDX index had a PPO surging to very high levels on the monthly chart. It was the highest level in 20 years, and suggested caution. When it rolled over, it was quite important to respect that. The PPO turned up to a buy signal this month, so that...US Dollar Rolls DownGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2023-06-16:post-258812023-06-16T16:58:48Z2023-06-16T16:53:08Z<p>The US Dollar ($USD) is one of the chart I look at regularly as a foreign investor, and this week saw USD give it up in a big way.</p><p>There are two trends in play here. The first is the trend of declining highs in price, with a support level around 100 to 101. The second is the rising trend of momentum on each low. Will the US Dollar bounce at the prior lows and turn the momentum back up near zero? Will the strength of the rising momentum on each low take precedent over the trend of lower highs and lower lows? This is an important chart globally, so the answers to these questions will prove vital.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/16/8182ad8f-91c4-4a61-8bf0-3a802fb2b3f2.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p90807390751&a=1435716114')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The Canadian loonie ($CDW) is breaking out to the upside. Notice the bowtie cross of all the moving averages. This is typically a good sign for commodities.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/16/ecae099f-834c-4c57-8991-ea38cd708ac2.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p63477346786&a=1435717169')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>One of the most important crosses in currency pairs is the Euro / US Dollar ($EURUSD). The Euro chart is almost the opposite of the US Dollar. Does this chart end up breaking out to the upside, or does it make a topping structure?</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/16/515736d1-a735-46b8-b843-28f5ef48fca6.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24EURUSD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p85900162422&a=1435717482')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>One other sign of a big global bull market is a move in the emerging market currencies, shown below with the chart of CEW. They broke out to one year highs this week.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/16/0a17d2a3-8a3b-45de-87d2-23da332730b6.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CEW&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p16511216419&a=1435723497')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>I'll be covering off ways to trade around these currency changes in the Osprey Strategic newsletter this weekend. You can check out everything we do from our Osprey Opportunities lists to the previous weekly videos and newsletters. Only $7 for a one-month trial!</p><p>Here is the link to this week's <em>Market Buzz</em>. I had a different title - Is It Time For a Holiday? - but this one works too!</p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/yxoayu8U5tc" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="360" frameborder="0"></iframe></div><p>I recorded a video with one of Canada's more widely known portfolio managers last week. Keith appears regularly on Canada's Bloomberg News. Lots of big picture views. <a href="https://www.valuetrend.ca/video/interview-with-greg-schnell-the-canadian-technician/" target="_blank">Valuetrend</a><span target="_blank">.</span></p><p target="_blank"><a href="https://www.valuetrend.ca/video/interview-with-greg-schnell-the-canadian-technician/" target="_blank"><img src="https://ospreystrategic.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Screenshot-2023-06-09-at-10.42.31-AM.png"></a></p>The US Dollar ($USD) is one of the chart I look at regularly as a foreign investor, and this week saw USD give it up in a big way.There are two trends in play here. The first is the trend of declining highs in price, with a support level around 100 to 101. The second is the rising trend of momentum on each low. Will the US Dollar bounce at the prior lows and turn the momentum back up near zero? Will the strength of the rising momentum on each low take precedent over the trend of lower highs and lower lows? This is an important chart globally, so the answers to these questions will prove...Indexes Level OffGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2023-06-09:post-258402023-06-09T19:59:25Z2023-06-09T17:01:08Z<p>After a huge rally off the March lows, the first full week of June saw the markets move sideways, for the most part. At noon Friday, most US indexes were up marginally on the week. The charts below are all 60-minute charts.</p><h2>Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)</h2><p>The black line represents last Friday's close. The Nasdaq 100 had surged up to this level to start the prior week, so the advance by the top 100 is pausing at this point. Consolidation is warranted after a heady advance.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/09/26fb1e55-487c-4da6-b27b-2f15a1e998ae.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&i=p47273912625&a=1430489299')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>The S&P 500</h2><p>The SPY is trying to point north. At noon, it was up 1-2% on the week. It is up a little more than the Nasdaq, and breadth within the 500 stocks is still positive.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/09/eb90eb16-4e77-42b2-a8fd-badb836a3ff0.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&i=p04645053169&a=1430489402')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>Dow Jone Industrial Average</h2><p> The DIA was up 0.20% on the week at noon. A steady climb from Tuesday's low helped the index get back on positive ground for the week. The chart has accelerated nicely from 2 weeks ago.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/09/5476c630-357f-4c93-ba5e-0d4e118ba9c4.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIA&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&i=p53364837567&a=1430489444')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>Russell 2000 (IWM)</h2><p>The IWM has been the story for two weeks and it definitely played catch-up. It was up 9.4% from the low two weeks ago to this weeks high and up 1.96% from last Friday's close as of noon Friday.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/09/2f066e41-0037-48cf-94f3-2c41c2b2c5dc.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&i=p07908513615&a=1430490305')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>The $TSX (XIU.TO) (Canada)</h2><p>The Canadian market is down 0.67% at noon on Friday, and the chart is not enjoying the buoyancy shown in the USA. The sideways performance over the last three weeks demonstrates the difference between the markets. One significant difference for the USA is the number of technology stocks. While the Russell 2000 has lots of banks, industrials, materials and energy names that perked up this week, it seems the Canadian market missed the same thrust outside of technology on the Canadian exchange.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/09/583f3923-0147-4712-bca3-578fb95ce993.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XIU.TO&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&i=p43728445415&a=1430495139')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The big boosters in the USA have been semiconductors and software over the last two months.</p><h2>Semiconductors</h2><p>SMH is a semiconductor ETF. Flat over the last two weeks, this chart tried to break out to the upside this morning and is definitely one to watch. Many of the semiconductor names are either forming bull flags or distribution.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/09/05896816-36d1-42fd-86e2-11c7c4bdbff5.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SMH&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&i=p22014605346&a=1430496900')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>Software</h2><p>IGV is a software ETF. There are many to choose from, but I'll use IGV. It is flat from last week and flat from the Tuesday morning surge on May 30th.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/09/3f27dd33-c3fc-4dc3-9c0f-d8b075b9189d.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IGV&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&i=p27298279032&a=1430497855')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>While there are still stocks going higher, it is starting to look like sideways consolidation is taking place. Watch closely to see which way this resolves.</p><p>If you would like to see more of what we do at <a href="https://ospreystrategic.org" target="_blank">Osprey Strategic</a>, we offer a $7 trial for the first month, where you can look through our videos and newsletters from the past few weeks as well.</p>After a huge rally off the March lows, the first full week of June saw the markets move sideways, for the most part. At noon Friday, most US indexes were up marginally on the week. The charts below are all 60-minute charts.Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)The black line represents last Friday's close. The Nasdaq 100 had surged up to this level to start the prior week, so the advance by the top 100 is pausing at this point. Consolidation is warranted after a heady advance.The S&P 500The SPY is trying to point north. At noon, it was up 1-2% on the week. It is up a little more than the Nasdaq, and breadth...Some New Charts Suggest This Leg ContinuesGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2023-06-02:post-258002023-06-02T21:13:20Z2023-06-02T17:36:57Z<p>Lately, investor interest has seemed to be restricted to semiconductors and software. This week, it appears to be widening out into new areas for a move higher. It's been a long time since anyone loved the ARK series of funds, but the ARKK has a SCTR above 75, suggesting a strong move has started, and is behaving better than most of the ETFs out there.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/02/c48eb215-37b7-4ef7-a8b8-09c336dd4564.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ARKK&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&i=p74092703641&a=1425009992')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Joe Terranova is a pretty smart investor. He has traded with one of the brightest minds in the commodities business, Mark Fisher. JOET is the ticker of the Terranova momentum fund. He has struggled to grasp the gains in the narrow advance as well, but, this week, the chart is starting to turn up. Looks great. The SCTR is moving back above 50, the price is breaking a big downtrend, and the PPO looks to be headed into positive territory.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/02/265c62d4-cad0-4300-9953-7d2befbd8b4c.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JOET&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p61735803221&a=1425010545')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Another ticker I like to keep an eye on is the IBD 50 ETF (FFTY). It has struggled, as it is a growth and momentum fund. The daily chart is perking up, and you can see the SCTR moving higher as well.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/02/c34efe8b-8711-405a-81a4-b46aa6e11fbb.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FFTY&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p25509085744&a=1425012635')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The weekly chart shows how it can be a solid performer, or a solid under-performer. I like the SCTR turning up after making an 18-month base. The price is trying to break out from a sideways consolidation since the beginning of the year. The weekly full stochastic was stuck in the lower half, and has now flipped back to the upper half. Price will close above the 40-WMA for the first time in a long time.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/02/78ba81e3-526f-4001-858a-662267b621d6.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FFTY&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&i=p32215925263&a=1425012635')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>I've been waiting for some broadening out. Nice to see a meaningful change in these charts.</p><p>I covered some of this on the monthly conference call on June 1, and members are listening to the recording today. I'll have a lot more in the weekend newsletter. If you would like to try <a href="https://ospreystrategic.org/subscription-page/" target="_blank">a subscription to Osprey Strategic,</a> it is only $7 for the first month and allows you to catch all up with all of the recent postings.</p>Lately, investor interest has seemed to be restricted to semiconductors and software. This week, it appears to be widening out into new areas for a move higher. It's been a long time since anyone loved the ARK series of funds, but the ARKK has a SCTR above 75, suggesting a strong move has started, and is behaving better than most of the ETFs out there.Joe Terranova is a pretty smart investor. He has traded with one of the brightest minds in the commodities business, Mark Fisher. JOET is the ticker of the Terranova momentum fund. He has struggled to grasp the gains in the narrow advance as...Rocket Launches Fire Across Tech SpaceGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2023-05-26:post-257652023-05-26T22:57:20Z2023-05-26T17:14:50Z<p>When rocket green flares fly across the space, it is so hard to chase in terms of risk management. Friday's example of Marvell (MRVL) moving 40% in a week after Nvidia (NVDA) lit the fuse one day earlier is amazing to watch.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/26/0461ceca-5764-45d5-9aef-8841adf72b7b.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MRVL&p=W&st=2018-10-15&i=p30426004185&a=1420193848')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Friday saw the Nasdaq 100 soar by more than 2%. The Nasdaq is up 7% on the month!</p><p>It sure feels like understanding macro technical analysis is a waste of time this month. An index of large cap stocks that hold CRM, AAPL, MSFT, CSCO, INTC, IBM is making lower highs for three weeks now, and the low was a 7-week low.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/26/8af83700-9a73-4361-87cb-b02d37ca603f.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=W&st=2020-02-18&i=p07479706411&a=1420116603')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>In my newsletter, I always insert a picture hinting at something going on. A sunset, a sunrise, a storm or a rainbow, they all convey a message. Last week, I posted a picture of a ladder, a narrow advance going higher. This week, Nvidia rocked the world with optimism around AI. After that announcement, we have seen the whole AI list of names shoot higher.</p><p>However, there was a wider response through some different industries on both Thursday and Friday. Names like Adobe, Workday, and Monday, in the technology sector, are joining the party. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/26/b4ba0cb2-5a50-49c6-a006-693ec8cfbc94.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ADBE&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p36619371811&a=1420737893')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>IBM, the owner of the AI tool Watson, with ads that we had seen for years, is finally getting a bid, up 2%.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/26/c4441375-73fa-48cf-80e7-b105a69375bc.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IBM&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p37290636927&a=1420738060')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Goldman Sachs (GS) is trying to change the chart shape from down to potentially up. Near 8-week lows to start Thursday, it is now making 3-week highs.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/26/ad78aa89-30e5-46fc-9ecd-45aaf2b26aa0.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GS&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p61342686073&a=1420738204')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p> You see credit card debt exploding, and American Express (AXP) is going higher, breaking a downtrend. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/26/9983df04-9825-4c19-98e9-b929b6458179.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXP&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p00281388067&a=1420738229')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Looking at so many pieces of macro information, it seems so odd. Below is the Shanghai Composite ($SSEC), breaking down to 4-month lows after making fresh highs in early May. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/26/e5c133ec-d327-48f9-9fad-f3db1184c4b3.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SSEC&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p90360163599&a=1420739456')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The Hong Kong Hang Seng ($HSI) is worse.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/26/c519b878-321c-4663-97de-20921e609018.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HSI&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p47306555445&a=1420741538')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The UK ($GBDOW) is stalling out.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/26/658b30a1-8638-4ba8-adec-7b5f03021c0f.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GBDOW&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p02463569481&a=1420739834')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Germany ($DAX), the economic engine of the Eurozone, is also stalling out.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/26/64b880c0-b63b-4737-aaab-d20f3e102951.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DAX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p65191503525&a=1420740645')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>France ($CAC), one of the best performing markets on the back of high luxury products, is rolling over.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/26/964f786f-e31b-4422-b5bc-b870872eafc6.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CAC&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p73099026585&a=1420741254')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>I could post a few more, but it comes down to one thing in my view.</p><p>America is the easiest place to invest in the AI trade, and that could garner inflows. It is also a country with a lot more technology companies that have come through the Silicon Valley incubator. Bringing the semiconductor manufacturing on shore is a big deal, and semi's are clearly leading the way. How much it broadens out into other sectors and industries remains to be seen.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/26/12292a09-41e0-4ac9-9527-282266bd4ea2.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Can financials, discretionary and energy turn up to join them? Maybe it doesn't matter and we should avoid our technical bias and run with the church of what is working. Software and semiconductors are working. As big companies in the $SPX and $NDX, they continue to drive the indexes higher. Perhaps another leg has just begun.</p>When rocket green flares fly across the space, it is so hard to chase in terms of risk management. Friday's example of Marvell (MRVL) moving 40% in a week after Nvidia (NVDA) lit the fuse one day earlier is amazing to watch.Friday saw the Nasdaq 100 soar by more than 2%. The Nasdaq is up 7% on the month!It sure feels like understanding macro technical analysis is a waste of time this month. An index of large cap stocks that hold CRM, AAPL, MSFT, CSCO, INTC, IBM is making lower highs for three weeks now, and the low was a 7-week low.In my newsletter, I always insert a picture hinting at...Nvidia Takes Over The LeadershipGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2023-05-19:post-257212023-05-19T23:06:00Z2023-05-19T16:46:32Z<p>With seconds to go in the seventh period of the hockey game last night, a goal was finally scored in the Carolina Hurricanes vs. Florida Panthers. It was a long game, a tiring game and only the first game of this playoff series. What we always do, when a game goes on, is we look back in history to see where it ranks. This was the sixth longest game in NHL history. There are six more games in the series. Should be a battle!</p><p>Much like the game last night, there are times when stocks go on extended runs, far outside what is expected. The stock breaks into the top echelon of historic moves. When a stock goes on a historic run, there is no real way to know when it will end. Typically, multiple 5% or 10% days close together tell you that you are getting close to the end of a run. Might not be a final run, but it is enough to stop the euphoria for a while. One of the most interesting markets for studying euphoria was the dotcom boom that lasted for years.</p><p>Scott McNealy, the CEO of Sun Microsystems, talked about the peak and the valuation of Sun Microsystems at the Nasdaq market top. Bloomberg interviewed Scott in March 2002 looking in the rear view mirror. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2002-03-31/a-talk-with-scott-mcnealy?sref=afVQ8OSO" target="_blank">This was from an interview long after the top, from Bloomberg</a>. </p><blockquote>At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don't need any transparency. You don't need any footnotes. What were you thinking?</blockquote><h2>Nvidia</h2><p>From Twitter this morning, the Price to Sales ratio for NVDA is now 28. You can't believe everything you read on Twitter, so I went to <a href="https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/symbolsummary.html?sym=NVDA" target="_blank"><strong>StockCharts NVDA stock summary</strong></a> to check it out. $Market cap of $770B on sales of $27B. That works out to 28 times.All things AI, all things cloud, and NVDA is living in the sweet spot.</p><p>Does that mean it will sell off? Absolutely not. Anything could happen. It could double from here. But what could possibly drive a stock to such high market valuations relative to earnings?</p><h2>Artificial Intelligence (AI)</h2><p>How the world has changed. I grew up on a farm where AI meant Artificial Insemination. Western Breeders Corp was shipping temperature-controlled packages world wide for AI. But that is a different AI. Today, something has changed, and AI is now artificial intelligence.</p><p>We are entering the big game of AI. When you listen to an earnings call, you go in knowing that every staff writer of earnings talking points has been adding 'AI' to every paragraph. These talking points for the call make sure the world knows the company is ready for the future. This is the search trend for AI over the past 5 years. It only started accelerating in the last 6 months.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/19/226c6b10-0cff-413b-b208-0f264f268ae0.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The recent SPAC boom lasted 9 months from mid-2020 to March 2021. Remember those heady stock surges? That was a pandemic-induced cash surplus as all the stay-at-home traders wanted to buy the next big thing. What could possibly compare to that run?</p><p>How about Nvidia, NVDA? It is a beautiful chart. Next week, we could retest the highs of 2021. The stock had 4 weeks of back-to-back big gains into the 2021 top.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/19/4b4d392b-6390-4bfd-a986-19394661748b.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NVDA&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&i=p32529280126&a=1416165941')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The PPO is very stretched and sitting near the highs of the previous two PPO peaks. Interestingly, the volume is nowhere near as big. I will point out that, in both of the previous big rallies, it was well after a breakout from a consolidation, not the first week after a consolidation, that the stock topped. This could run a whole lot longer.</p><h2>Overall Market</h2><p>With that said, the market has gone from a sideways grind for 6 weeks to euphoria in 4 days. Has it ever been this euphoric? This is nothing. It is barely the start of a rally. We do not have to look back at history very far. The vertical lines mark the options expirations. Some have been ignored and some have been worth respecting. March 2022, May, June, July, October and March 2023 were nice upside reversals. April 2022, August, December and February 2023 were downside reversals. My only comment is to be aware of the potential for reversals on options expiration. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/19/27be0af2-d0e3-461f-9c34-2e9eaa8d1c2f.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&st=2022-03-01&i=p39493347175&a=1413530972')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>I am glad we finally resolved to the upside. Quite frankly, looking at the indexes, it looks like higher is the new direction. What is the one fly in the ointment?</p><h2>Bond Yields</h2><p>Each week, I look through the charts for intermarket clues as to what is going on. The ten-year yield is starting to accelerate higher. The bottom panel is the yield PPO. When the 10-year Yield PPO moved above zero and/or above a trend line near zero, it also marked some turning points for stocks over the last 1.5 years. We are at that moment on Friday. While I am not able to draw a vertical line on the April 2022 $SPX high, notice how the PPO for the 10-Year stayed above zero all the way to the July low in the equity markets.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/19/b300b931-75eb-47ef-871c-282852e163c6.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=D&yr=2&mn=3&dy=0&i=p00031668447&a=1416145382')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The chart has not been able to stall the market, and pessimism is lifting, mine included.</p><p>I like the up week we had, with some positive days back to back. Bullish unless we see some of the bond pressure start to dampen stock enthusiasm. Clearly, stocks like NVDA are leading us higher, and that could continue. Banks, energy, software have all turned higher, and I feel like those may be better entries than a semiconductor name at 28x revenue.</p><p>More in the weekly newsletter to clients, which is available for $7, covering the first month, at <a href="https://ospreystrategic.org" target="_blank">Osprey Strategic</a>.</p>With seconds to go in the seventh period of the hockey game last night, a goal was finally scored in the Carolina Hurricanes vs. Florida Panthers. It was a long game, a tiring game and only the first game of this playoff series. What we always do, when a game goes on, is we look back in history to see where it ranks. This was the sixth longest game in NHL history. There are six more games in the series. Should be a battle!Much like the game last night, there are times when stocks go on extended runs, far outside what is expected. The stock breaks into the top echelon of historic moves...Bitcoin SlippageGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2023-05-12:post-256792023-05-13T02:06:30Z2023-05-12T17:27:54Z<p>Whenever we get media images marking an extreme in sentiment, it's best to be ready for the exits. Oil after the Russia/Ukraine war was an example.</p><p>Remember when SPAC's were a big thing? This image below was from March 02, 2021. Chamath was bringing his Venture Capital investments to market at a relentless rate. He saw the opportunity for him as investors were clamouring to buy the latest growth thing.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/12/fa06387c-68ca-43b4-82f6-0dad9c471d1b.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>A few years ago, CNBC had a Bitcoin tracker running on the screen, tracking Bitcoin's every move. Bitcoin was climbing smoothly, and the peak euphoria seemed to be upon us as technicians. Bitcoin was at $69,000 and there was no end in sight. After 2022, the momentum swung lower and the chart dropped meaningfully. But in November 2022, after the FTX drop, the chart based. It continued to climb in a new uptrend, clearly interrupting the downtrend of 2022. As recently as April 24th, the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/bitcoin-btc-price-could-hit-100000-by-end-2024-standard-chartered.html" target="_blank">Bitcoin proponents were back with an interview at CNBC with $BTCUSD going to $100,000</a>. Where is this chart going?</p><p>After the April 24th sunshine of Bitcoin going to $100,000 from the level of $27,000, Bitcoin surged for 2 days. Now, Bitcoin has sold off for three weeks and has broken below a small topping formation. The relative strength trend has been damaged, as shown in purple. I ignored the 4-day move down on the banks collapsing, as it didn't seem to be part of any trend on the chart. It did bounce nicely off the 200 DMA in March.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/12/9461f8bc-9c86-4945-bff6-54ce03ca7b56.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p39804760935&a=1411943976')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The volume has been declining since the January surge. So interest is waning a little. Lastly, the PPO has a series of rising lows. Right now, the PPO is pointed down and may break that trend.</p><p>When we look at the weekly chart, the trend is a little different. First of all, there is a double off the November lows to this rally. That's awesome! Technically, there are some other signals kicking in.</p><p>The relative strength in purple is breaking for the first time since November. The Elder candle has turned red for the first time since the November rally started. Volume is declining, and the Full Stochastic has rolled over on a sell signal. PPO is still above the signal line, but starting to slow its advance.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/12/9151de57-be34-46d9-81b5-6c42b562d860.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&i=p99593457198&a=1411946215')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Will Bitcoin go to $100,000? It might, but right now the chart is weakening. If we look left on the weekly chart, how important was $30,000 for support? Now it has become resistance. For technicians, it is not a surprise that Bitcoin stalled trying to get through $30000 as what was support becomes resistance. Now there will be fib retracements and 'hold on for dear life -HODL' investing styles coming out of the Twitter world endlessly. But the most important thing to recognize is that the chart currently looks like a base needs to form and it might be wise to respect the price action until it does. Not predicting doom and gloom; just suggesting to respect the current price action. </p><p>Greg will be presenting at the Moneyshow on Wednesday May 17 at 3:20 PM ET. You can follow this link to register! Thanks in advance for your interest!</p><p target="_blank"><a href="https://bit.ly/3BiXPQ1" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/3BiXPQ1</a></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/12/52396c61-a2d6-4289-8fb2-76cddff683d5.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p>Whenever we get media images marking an extreme in sentiment, it's best to be ready for the exits. Oil after the Russia/Ukraine war was an example.Remember when SPAC's were a big thing? This image below was from March 02, 2021. Chamath was bringing his Venture Capital investments to market at a relentless rate. He saw the opportunity for him as investors were clamouring to buy the latest growth thing.A few years ago, CNBC had a Bitcoin tracker running on the screen, tracking Bitcoin's every move. Bitcoin was climbing smoothly, and the peak euphoria seemed to be upon us as technicians...Is This Market Resilient or What?Greg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2023-05-05:post-256392023-05-05T20:48:50Z2023-05-05T13:42:34Z<p>Have you ever stood at the edge of the Grand Canyon and wondered about all the history of each cave or ridge? What about the multiple valleys that ultimately drain to the Colorado River? It is a daunting site to behold, but, as the winds blow past you and the hawks soar overhead, you can quickly see that just one viewpoint doesn't do it justice.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/05/d0141827-5bb4-47a2-bd2b-c1f29c774b77.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"><span class="image-caption">Photo: Greg Schnell</span></p><p>This week's price action in the stock market reminds me that there are multiple perspectives of where we are in the stock market journey. Everyone's viewpoint is different, and that's what makes a market. Technology investors see one perspective. Commodity investors see another. Bank dividend investors are seeing a new view as well.</p><p>I went to look and see what were the top-performing industries over the last week while the banks were imploding, and it was travel and leisure, hotels, and gaming. I had no idea that the resilience of those groups could hold up a market.</p><h2>Financials:</h2><p>Financials are breaking down, both big and small. Financials used to be important, but apparently they do not matter, as the $SPX touched a fresh 2023 high last week.The charts of C, WFC, and BAC don't look nearly as healthy as JPM. The regionals are bombing out, and a few might get merged this weekend. I think we have all seen the KBE and KRE ETF charts. The main point of the picture below is that JPM is holding up; the others are not.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/05/93fb8a6e-2647-426e-af68-5f5cdf792ced.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Here is the banking index. That 2010-2023 trend looks broken. Even by just ignoring the COVID situation, this looks broke, and a test of $60 wouldn't be hard to imagine. The bottom panel shows 15-year relative strength lows.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/05/5f692b4c-d4ea-4f2f-9596-06ec9ce77d73.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BKX&p=W&yr=15&mn=6&dy=10&i=p53217553568&a=1407075677')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The broker dealers, usually considered as one of the leading industries, looks better than the banks. Does the trend line hold? The PPO is going below zero again. This is a chart that suggests, to me, that this problem will get bigger.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/05/43732d26-22b4-47c2-b0d9-3dfe0331d9fe.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XBD&p=W&yr=12&mn=6&dy=10&i=p46895159528&a=1407076405')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>Industrial Metals</h2><p>The industrial metals commodity index by Goldman Sachs is making lower lows and lower highs since January. Is this just China managing commodity demand to load up on cheap commodities before the next run starts? That would be no different that the US government managing oil pricing by releasing the strategic petroleum reserve. So this isn't taboo, but other nations do it on a lot more commodities than just oil.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/05/e6e684d0-096a-4698-8db3-1a3cb8722b3b.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GYX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p60123767053&a=1407051220')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>Crude Oil</h2><p>Crude oil continues to struggle. That rally last Friday was just that. It was so-o-o last week, as crude slid below $65 this week. Before market open on May 5, this chart shows crude down 10% on the week, and that isn't even the bottom of the candle.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/05/c3649199-f0fd-4ea5-9e6d-d8f7447ff367.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p23127286078&a=1407052605')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>$SPX Price Earning Ratio</h2><p>The price/earnings ratio for the stock market, sitting up near some of the most stretched extremes in history, was barely discussed at the CMT Association meeting. Purple is current, and the other three lines are where it would be based on lower P/E ratios. We have lived in a stretched world since 2014, so why would that view matter now? I show this chart to demonstrate that, if we reverted to 20, we would be below 3500, and if we reverted to a P/E of 15, 2600 is in play. It is not uncommon for recessions to cause a valuation reset of the market broadly.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/05/fe90737e-6af4-42c1-b5ce-f0a197b534ab.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21GAAPSPX15&p=Q&yr=50&mn=6&dy=0&i=p07078767868&a=1407052913')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>Bonds and the Yield Curve</h2><p>At the CMT Association meeting, the yield curve or the history of the yield curve was never mentioned in any of the conversations and presentations I sat in on. It didn't fit with the bullish narrative of the $SPX and $NDX at 2023 highs. By the way, most portfolio managers think we are going much higher (but don't mention the yield curve).</p><p>Actually, I was amazed that no one even mentioned it, even though the whole bank valuation issue right now is hold to maturity (HTM) <strong><em><u>bonds</u></em></strong>. Bonds are the problem, not the equity market.</p><p>The real deal is bonds add another perspective, much like the Grand Canyon viewpoints. Change any one viewpoint and it looks totally different. We find an entirely different view over in the yield curve. Bonds are one of the four major asset classes, but only Louise Yamada ventured there, showing a 40-year break of the interest rate trend line for long bonds.</p><p>The current yield curve did not seem to matter, nor did the history of the yield curve. So let me add a few yield curve charts here. The vertical line on the right side at year 2000 is the top yield curve line on the left. The vertical line at 2007 is the bottom yield curve line on the left.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/05/d8a9cbc9-125d-4fe1-b5bd-14c37a64c0bf.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>So what does the yield curve line look like right now? It is the bottom line on this chart below, comparing with the 2000 top. They look similar to me.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/05/cea54cca-9059-4822-a199-6ff7138e0bfe.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Why does that matter? Let me use another chart to explain what is happening. The 30-year yield is now higher than the middle or the belly of the curve. This is changing rapidly as the yield curve starts to realign. If you look on the right side in the zoom panel, the 30-year yields are starting to hold above the middle of the curve yields. The 30-year yield may cross above the 2-year soon. But look at the congestion zones when the yields get tight. The equity market response is shown as this starts to broaden out. $SPX is on the lower panel.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/05/c6e35bc4-7e8a-4074-b9b8-df8082caab0f.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST30Y&p=W&st=1994-06-14&i=p29617696947&a=1407062236')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>Fed Rate</h2><p>Now that a large portion of money managers assume the Fed is done raising rates, where does this leave us? The chart that makes a big impression on me is the rate of change of the Fed funds rate, shown in green in the lower panel. This isn't the rate of change of something like lumber. This is the rate of change for one of the most tracked interest rates in the world.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/05/4ad92d25-0d70-4da5-be64-7ea9e313b5db.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24%24FEDRATE&p=M&st=1980-06-11&i=p09341788674&a=1278990170')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The assumption that the entire business world can adapt rapidly to absorb one of the fastest rate changes ever does not seem plausible to me. As this rolls through boardrooms across the world, when will it crack the equity market investors? So far, the equity markets are not blinking.</p><p>I am on another viewpoint -- wide-eyed, staring over my view, suggesting something is amiss and about to fall sharply. Will it happen in May or June? Or will it take until October? I don't know, but I don't see this working out 'perfectly' as we try to go to take out the 2021 highs.</p><p>To me, it looks like a setup we should be cautious of. When the market continues to struggle to make higher highs here after six weeks, is this just a consolidation? Or is it a final realization that it's about to get messy?</p><p>If you would like more perspectives on this, I'll be holding a monthly conference call for clients on Sunday. At <a href="https://ospreystrategic.org" target="_blank">Osprey Strategic,</a> you can try out our services for just $7 for the first month. I'm a big fan of protecting capital until the time is right to step back in. Day traders need not test the waters. They won't find anything they like there. This is for investors with large amounts of capital with the wisdom and patience to wait for a better backdrop.</p>Have you ever stood at the edge of the Grand Canyon and wondered about all the history of each cave or ridge? What about the multiple valleys that ultimately drain to the Colorado River? It is a daunting site to behold, but, as the winds blow past you and the hawks soar overhead, you can quickly see that just one viewpoint doesn't do it justice.Photo: Greg SchnellThis week's price action in the stock market reminds me that there are multiple perspectives of where we are in the stock market journey. Everyone's viewpoint is different, and that's what makes a market. Technology investors see...Check Out This Economic IndicatorGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2023-04-21:post-255592023-04-21T23:17:12Z2023-04-21T17:17:21Z<p>One of the areas of the market that continues to struggle is oil. OPEC recently pushed the price of WTI crude above a prior high, but that has not held.</p><p>I got an interesting email this morning from an oil and gas friend asking why his stock has dropped 20% recently. It was a small Canadian Oil and Gas company, but the same thoughts work across the spectrum.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/04/21/aae20038-df4f-4804-aff8-dbd35428f7e9.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Let's use a company like ConocoPhillips (COP). The stock continues to make lower lows and lower highs. The relative strength shown in purple continues to underperform. Until the stock can start outperforming the S&P 500, it's going to be difficult to attract capital. The outperformance would show when this area chart in purple starts to turn up. Momentum shown by the PPO is rolling over here at a similar level to late January. That could change at any time, but it hasn't started yet.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/04/21/48a0eb12-6858-4b60-8e70-347fb14f3130.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=COP&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p89966314613&a=1398077327')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>So is this an isolated picture? Let's look at the crude oil markets. Here is Brent crude. Brent continues to underperform the $SPX, and has been stuck with a price high around $87. The recent March move by OPEC got price back up to the highs of the range, but it couldn't break out. Momentum (PPO) is rolling over.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/04/21/eb72bc59-8219-47a1-89b0-5f42efe87a6c.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BRENT&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p28956968654&a=1398035260')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>On this side of the world, we focus on WTI. Here is the chart for $WTIC, which continues to underperform the $SPX as well. However, price actually broke out above the previous highs around $81. Currently, this looks like a failed breakout. Failed breakouts are often a better clue as to the direction and, at this point, lower seems to be winning. What would it take to change my mind? If oil can make a higher low and then get back above the $81 level, that makes the price action a lot more interesting. PPO is rolling over, suggesting the momentum is waning.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/04/21/1170a265-3566-4601-b3be-844b4df465ef.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p32998630049&a=1398032142')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>We can look at the oil producers ETF (XOP), which continues to weaken and has not been able to get back to prior highs, even though OPEC has taken 3 million barrels per day off the market.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/04/21/47e55eac-ccc2-4131-9836-8a34b3d16cec.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XOP&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p71163731321&a=1398032259')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>However, for me, oil is one of the better economic indicators, and these charts above all look weak, confirming the problem for the broader economy. Economic activity is declining and oil is telling us, very clearly, that demand is weaker.</p><p>When I look at the $SPX, this chart is starting to see what oil is saying. It is testing prior highs, but, after three weeks here, it is struggling to break out so far. PPO is rolling over, and those sell signals have been pretty helpful indicators for upcoming market weakness.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/04/21/97501709-d4be-4332-ba49-f5f40d89cb42.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p06582285019&a=1398040716')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>This is not a doom and gloom forecast. It just shows the market is trying to price the economic slowdown, and crude continues to tell us that demand is slowing. When oil and oil producers start to base and breakout to the upside, I'll be a lot more comfortable about the broader economy starting to accelerate.</p>One of the areas of the market that continues to struggle is oil. OPEC recently pushed the price of WTI crude above a prior high, but that has not held.I got an interesting email this morning from an oil and gas friend asking why his stock has dropped 20% recently. It was a small Canadian Oil and Gas company, but the same thoughts work across the spectrum.Let's use a company like ConocoPhillips (COP). The stock continues to make lower lows and lower highs. The relative strength shown in purple continues to underperform. Until the stock can start outperforming the S&P 500, it's going to...Whatever Floats Your BoatGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2023-04-14:post-255212023-04-15T00:27:42Z2023-04-14T21:03:04Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/04/14/9be9ce88-04d0-4fc1-95e4-ceb29bfb8176.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Another week where the indexes moved sideways and we are where we started the month on the $NDX. I am not excited that we keep having low volume days. Even with JPM earnings coming out strong today, we recorded the lowest volume going back to August 2022, other than the Thanksgiving holiday period.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/04/14/9566edba-2ba3-414d-8cbd-c6e6914f52c9.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p75813595132&a=1393544805')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The $SPX perked up a little more and closed up 0.69% on the week with a low volume day again. The indexes have been hard to follow with a lot of moving parts under the surface, yet they hold flat. The $SPX also recorded a very low volume day on Monday, and Friday wasn't a whole bunch better.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/04/14/894b7874-37a8-4ef0-b396-0b1c029105bc.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p03308696099&a=1390595785')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>However, one industry that seemed to really float above the market was marine transportation. It has been drifting for a while, but it really started to perk up this week. Check out Maersk (AMKBY).</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/04/14/6fa41003-85e9-4c81-9224-319c6524b36b.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMKBY&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p09883033047&a=1393539810')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Looking around for other names related to marine transportation, the sudden spurt this week on GSL, Global Ship Leasing, was pretty interesting as well.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/04/14/db6bfbef-1512-459f-92b9-b64f188f6804.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GSL&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&i=p14351930578&a=1393541517')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>I actually found twelve companies in related spaces to ocean freight that had big weeks. Could this be the start of freight picking up speed? That's a real positive if it's true. I don't have any knowledge about what is floating on the boat, but it might be a good time to get onboard these shipping stocks.</p>Another week where the indexes moved sideways and we are where we started the month on the $NDX. I am not excited that we keep having low volume days. Even with JPM earnings coming out strong today, we recorded the lowest volume going back to August 2022, other than the Thanksgiving holiday period.The $SPX perked up a little more and closed up 0.69% on the week with a low volume day again. The indexes have been hard to follow with a lot of moving parts under the surface, yet they hold flat. The $SPX also recorded a very low volume day on Monday, and Friday wasn't a whole bunch...Mega-Cap LeadershipGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2023-03-31:post-254412023-03-31T22:59:52Z2023-03-31T17:59:17Z<p>The StockCharts Technical Ranking (SCTR) system is a way of finding stocks that are outperforming their peers. This week, I noticed that most of the big names have their SCTR surging into the top quadrant.</p><h2>SCTR</h2><p>StockCharts created the SCTR indicator to help find top-performing stocks. It is also a way of seeing how strong a stock is compared to its peer group. The beautiful part is that you can look back at periods of outperformance by a stock, and see how it did relative to peers. Just because a stock is moving up, doesn't mean it is outperforming. If every stock is moving up (summer 2020), which ones were moving up faster, with bigger percentage gains each week?</p><p>The top quadrant represents the stocks with the best price action. They are performing better than 75% of their peer group of stocks. When we say performing better, the percentage move is bigger over the same time periods used in the calculation. I have placed a line at 75% and plotted the SCTR at the top of the charts for you to quickly refer to it. Notice the history of the SCTR, as it shows periods of outperformance and underperformance by a stock.</p><p>I will use the SCTR to talk about the stock price action relative to its peer group. This is an important distinction. We need to outperform the other peers to outperform the market.</p><h2>Apple (AAPL)</h2><p>Apple is breaking out of a base that it has built over the last 9 months. The SCTR is jumping from 30 to 77. The PPO measures momentum and is moving above zero. I like this chart action.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/03/31/c55106ef-2e8e-44eb-80bb-e7c1e5f80d35.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p35356818625&a=1384681552')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>Microsoft (MSFT)</h2><p>Microsoft is breaking out to a higher high. The SCTR is surging from 30 to 83. Looking left on the SCTR, we can see the chart has another period where the SCTR stayed in the top zone for 6 months and the chart accelerated nicely.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/03/31/2fcb35cd-090e-40e6-b42b-33c05912818e.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MSFT&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p59066856447&a=1384676379')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>Meta Platforms (META)</h2><p>I notice that META was one of the worst charts out there in 2022. The SCTR stayed low for most of 2022. I like to watch for very weak charts that finally start to improve relative to their past. Below, just look at the SCTR going from worst to 98% in just a few months.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/03/31/5de945bd-64a4-41f1-990a-c933e7708310.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=META&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p61630702115')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>Nvidia (NVDA)</h2><p>Nvidia is another great example of a weak chart leaving the base and soaring. Back in October, NVDA bottomed out. Price surged higher, and the SCTR did too. NVDA pulled back, and the SCTR came back to a really low level (January 2023), only to go on another massive run. This initial surge, followed by a pullback, can be a nice clue of a stock's potential to break out again.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/03/31/33af2147-3324-43c4-b8bb-0a7766d38210.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NVDA&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p95614791152')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>Tesla (TSLA) </h2><p>Tesla does not have a strong SCTR ranking. However, in the January jump, Tesla moved almost 100%. Recently, it gave some of that back, as you can see on the price chart. The SCTR got extremely weak again. This reminds me of the same setup we saw for Nvidia, just delayed.</p><p>Can Tesla surge again? It's worth being ready when you have a large cap that can sport this much change in a short period of time. Tesla has been consolidating for a while, but is setting up to pop above the 40-WMA. The chart setup is eerily similar to some of the other large-cap winners before they made big moves. Can Tesla restart the launch?</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/03/31/9e83b1f6-38ab-4279-b543-95c20be9f1ab.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TSLA&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p81986722483&a=1384682134')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>There is lots more to watch. We have a really interesting backdrop with all the changes in the economy. Do you have a method of monitoring the background situation? At Osprey Strategic, we do.</p><p>If you are interested in the ways we monitor the market, I'd encourage you to go to <a href="https://www.ospreystrategic.com" target="_blank">ospreystrategic.com</a> and try our $7 trial offer. Our focus is capital protection and making money when the market turns higher.</p>The StockCharts Technical Ranking (SCTR) system is a way of finding stocks that are outperforming their peers. This week, I noticed that most of the big names have their SCTR surging into the top quadrant.SCTRStockCharts created the SCTR indicator to help find top-performing stocks. It is also a way of seeing how strong a stock is compared to its peer group. The beautiful part is that you can look back at periods of outperformance by a stock, and see how it did relative to peers. Just because a stock is moving up, doesn't mean it is outperforming. If every stock is moving up (summer 2020)...Odd or Resilient? European BanksGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2023-03-24:post-254012023-03-24T19:25:58Z2023-03-24T18:57:26Z<p>When I look across the European banking sector, the charts are disturbingly weak. After Jay Powell's presser, one of the things he mentioned was that they had six banks they were watching. He did not mention if they were US-based or international.</p><h2>European Financials (EUFN)</h2><p>When I look through this ETF, the chart is marginally damaged, but nothing that severe. The chart is down 13%.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/03/24/dbd1466f-f54e-4ba7-bacd-8c949dd091ba.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EUFN&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p02393669412&a=1380150642')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The top holding is UBS.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/03/24/138ef217-7306-4c0b-a38f-e3a1c5bf4abf.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UBS&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p13329577815&a=1380150933')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Zurich Insurance Group (ZURVY) has only dropped 4% in the last 3 weeks and is up 5.3% this week. Hardly a debacle.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/03/24/67903348-b7ba-4aa6-9e61-baa740fb2383.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ZURVY&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p21138334159&a=1380151383')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>Systemically Important European Financials</h2><p>When I look to the names that are more systemically important, the charts are quite different.</p><p>Germany has two primary banks, Deutsche Bank (DB) and Commerzbank (CRZBY). Both have been in the news.</p><p>CRZBY:</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/03/24/dd1f8eee-7eff-4364-a772-3804e85b490f.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CRZBY&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p56792844815&a=1380152938')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>DB:</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/03/24/4be6bcd8-2c54-484e-b8ad-04445eb0c17e.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DB&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p96757499659&a=1380153562')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>Other Systemically Important Names from around Europe</h2><p>Barclay's (BCS):</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/03/24/89f7ddb8-1af5-4013-bb2f-5f6d7a1ec7de.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BCS&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p58017943242&a=1380153727')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>BNP Paribas (BNPQY):</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/03/24/39ca5b44-84ee-45f4-9007-8f76b6af1532.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BNPQY&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p32161859565&a=1380156191')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Credit Agricole (CRARY):</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/03/24/1be39742-fe00-4f34-b4d4-081f7d82530b.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CRARY&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p98836280836&a=1380156288')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Societe Generale (SCGLY):</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/03/24/81de34fd-5057-4534-b62f-65054a2eeb26.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SCGLY&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p88353501829&a=1380159104')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Intesa SanPaolo (ISNPY):</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/03/24/a5c8eff8-49c0-4c5d-a602-9d3cc8a42aea.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ISNPY&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p58359667560&a=1380159352')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>Performance</h2><p>The table below shows the performance for one week, one month, and since the start of 2023. Many of these banks are up on the week. So if you are thinking of a banking plunge, many of these banks are taking it all in stride. How long will it last?</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/03/24/c52e9ad3-f63c-4c71-979b-cb589e508bc0.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>Conclusion:</h2><p>The bottom line is the EUFN is not weighted based on the size of the European banks and, therefore, not as representative with the most systemically important banks. It would be down significantly more based on the top 10 European banks. But there is some resilience <u>so far</u> that this all works out, as a large number of banks are up on the week even in the face of the weakness on the Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank charts.</p><p>Unnerving, but not broken, so far.</p>When I look across the European banking sector, the charts are disturbingly weak. After Jay Powell's presser, one of the things he mentioned was that they had six banks they were watching. He did not mention if they were US-based or international.European Financials (EUFN)When I look through this ETF, the chart is marginally damaged, but nothing that severe. The chart is down 13%.The top holding is UBS.Zurich Insurance Group (ZURVY) has only dropped 4% in the last 3 weeks and is up 5.3% this week. Hardly a debacle.Systemically Important European FinancialsWhen I look to the names that are...Gold Gets a ShineGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2023-03-17:post-253652023-03-17T22:23:28Z2023-03-17T17:43:42Z<p>Is Gold the next great trade? We been drawn in before, but, today, gold is making a higher high as the banking dilemma unfolds.</p><p>Gold has pulled back since the beginning of February and bottomed out last week. The chart has been making some aggressive moves higher; while they look huge, on a percentage basis, GLD is up about 9%, including the 2% move on Friday.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/03/17/c6eb5bc5-3679-48ca-b50e-987d930f41ec.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&st=2022-09-15&st=2022-09-15&en=2023-03-17&i=p44154344933&a=1340620012')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>I think the broader picture on Gold is coming into play. Let's look at the weekly chart.</p><ol><li>The SCTR is surging to its highest level on the chart!</li><li>Relative strength in purple is turning up.</li><li>Full stochastic is giving a bounce at the 50% level, which is a typical bull market bounce location.</li><li>Price is threatening to break out to new 52 week highs.</li><li>Volume is accelerating on the breakout.</li><li>PPO is turning up while above zero. Another bullish clue!</li></ol><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/03/17/37b72d5c-02f6-48e7-8317-df7a57bf893d.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&i=p51409480365&a=1375674844')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The real question now is, can Gold continue?</p><p>This looks like a nice setup for a continuation move higher. On the monthly chart, it looks nice as well.</p><ul><li>Price is moving back above the 2008 high with a nice thrust. We have tested this level for the last three months. </li><li>I would like to see the volume improve.</li><li>The full stochastic is turning up above 50 for the first time since the spring of 2022. Is this just coming to the end of its seasonal strong period?</li><li>I like the PPO crossing the signal line on the monthly chart. This is the first positive cross since 2019. We'll need to wait for month end to confirm it.</li></ul><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/03/17/169a7ddf-f49b-4938-bc26-cf7a9c9489cb.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=M&yr=15&mn=0&dy=0&i=p44243727215&a=1375675233')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>It's all set up for a run. Keep an eye on Gold, in my opinion.</p>Is Gold the next great trade? We been drawn in before, but, today, gold is making a higher high as the banking dilemma unfolds.Gold has pulled back since the beginning of February and bottomed out last week. The chart has been making some aggressive moves higher; while they look huge, on a percentage basis, GLD is up about 9%, including the 2% move on Friday.I think the broader picture on Gold is coming into play. Let's look at the weekly chart.The SCTR is surging to its highest level on the chart!Relative strength in purple is turning up.Full stochastic is giving a bounce at the 50%...