The Canadian Technician

Is This A Helicopter View Or Cliffside View?

One of the signs of a bull market is when all the indexes are making new highs within a few days of each other. One of the signs of market weakness shows by having different indexes not confirm new highs together. So the question in the title is really asking if we step back, are we on the edge of a market precipice (Cliffside View) or are we just pulling back before resuming the uptrend (Helicopter View)? That's always a good thing to check.

Recently, the $TSX hit a new 52-week high, which we would regard as bullish. One of the problems associated with the market right now in the USA is that only the Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) is making new highs. Canada recently made a new high that coincided with the $NDX new high. 

The chart below needs more discussion though. If we look at the period of August 13-15, all seven of the indexes were making new highs together. That is a very bullish scenario. Even on September 7th, almost all of the markets were recording new highs or very close, highlighted with an orange arrow. The $TSX and the Nasdaq 100 both made new highs on October 24th, but looking down across the rest of the indexes, we can see the progression lower, long before the October 24th top. I have marked the highs for each index with a green arrow. While the $TSX has not broken to new three month lows, it is an important clue for Canadian investors that a major divergence is in place on many of the US market indexes. 

While the market will move widely this week on election results, the bigger picture denotes a problem. For all the bullish seasonal patterns and tendencies being discussed, October has marked meaningful highs in more than a few years. 2000, 2001, 2002 was November stalling, 2007, 2008, 2014 was November stalling, 2015 was November stalling, and now 2016. Keep in mind, US stimulus was in place for the fourth quarter of 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2104.

So while the bulls and the bankers want us running head first towards the new year, the charts now have one common thread in the US, they are all at three month lows with divergences on the recent highs. When the markets pull back together, then surge to new highs together, that is the price action we normally see in an uptrend. Currently, only the downtrend is in harmony. In September when we were pulling back, all the markets were in sync. In October, they were not in sync before pulling back.

 You may remember in 2008, the $TSX went on to make new highs, while the US market was deteriorating. 


Let me switch to a wider view outside of America and Canada. I like looking at the indexes for their country priced in local currency, not the US dollar ETF. An example would be looking at the $TSX shown above, it is priced in Canadian Dollars, not US Dollars. Globally, of the major market economies that I follow, only the Bovespa in Brazil ($BVSP) and London's $FTSE have made higher highs than 2015 in their local currency.  Smaller economies like Mexico, Argentina and Chile have as well. 

However, over 2.8 billion people live in China, India and Indonesia. Their markets have not confirmed the new highs.

Actually, the country list coming up short of the 2015 highs includes China, India, Indonesia, Russia, Japan, Vietnam, Germany, Thailand, France, Italy, South Korea, Spain, Australia and Canada. Yes, this list of countries have not taken out the 2015 highs while the US market did. 

If we are in a bull market, it better show its horns very quickly. This global divergence does not resemble the big bull markets where the majority of the stock markets move higher together. While this information does not help us on a daily basis, it is pretty important to be aware of the larger dynamic on a global basis.

I recently did a few webinars, trying to clarify the market information for investors. If you are not aware of how fine that picture is, I would encourage you to watch Commodities Countdown 2016-10-27 and then the Commodities Countdown 2016-11-03. There is also the Canadian Technician Webinar 2016-11-01. I have been bullish until late September so I am not quick to jump on the bear bandwagon. But when the time comes, keeping your capital becomes more important than making money. 

I will be hosting Martin Pring with a Webinar on Tuesday. Martin Pring 2016-11-08. I will also be hosting a Commodities Countdown Webinar on Thursday November 10th. If you miss any of our webinars be sure to check the Webinar Archives for watching them when its convenient for you. 

Good trading,
Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA.

What's Holding The $TSX Up? Webinar Skim 2016-11-01

The Toronto Stock Exchange ($TSX) has some worrying technical conditions this week.

First of all, on a large 18 month chart, we appear to be breaking the trend line up. It also looks like we have a failed breakout above previous resistance. I have used the lowest slope possible to define the uptrend at this point. The MACD also gave us a sell signal today.

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Oil Bubbles Above $52 - Webinar Skim 2016-10-18

Crude Oil continues to drift higher. The Texas Tea bubbled over $52 this morning on the December contract as the front month expires tomorrow. I have shown the breakout on this Crude tracking ETF (USO) chart. The USO has negative drift so the peak back in June that it was tracking was not quite $52. You can see this morning's push above $52 looks a little lower on the ETF.

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$TSX Struggles At Long Term Resistance

The $TSX has struggled to break through 15000. I have drawn a line at the recent high of 14850. The 20 WMA does a pretty good job of supporting the $TSX. In the zoom box, we can see the last two weeks have been supported by the 20 WMA in blue. If this rolls over and closes below 14500, a test of 14000 is likely. This is near the 40 WMA level and a major support/resistance level around 14000.

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Moving Averages and Trend Lines Suggest ... Webinar Skim 2016-10-04

One thing we continue to use technical analysis for is the balance between emotion and the market. When the market is roaring, we need to be a part of it. We also need to be aware of when the market is in an exaggerated state. Conversely, when the market feels just horrible, it presents some of the best buying opportunities. Using technicals to help understand where we are in the market extremes is important. 

One of the indicators we use at StockCharts is the Bullish Percent Index. For more information on the Bullish Percent Index, click here for the ChartSchool Article. A simple 10 WMA captures most of the trends. One of the concerns now is the sell signal as the $BPTSE has broken below the 10-week moving average (10 WMA).

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Gold's Boat Doesn't Float (GLD)

Gold (GLD) was down hard today. This move was particularly important as GLD broke through support. Through the last eight months, GLD did not outperform the $SPX. The big push to new three-month lows does not suggest any strength showing up yet. Investors probably have some time, probably 2-3 weeks to look for gold names.

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Air Canada (AC.TO) Tries To Take Off

The Canadian transportation stocks rolled over on the back of the oil prices falling back in 2014. Most of the Canadian transportation stocks topped out in late 2014 to Mid 2015.  Air Canada (AC.TO) was no different. 

Currently this chart looks beautiful. The SCTR breaking out to 75 is my favorite signal. The price is breaking out to close the week, the month and the quarter. The volume acceleration is great and the MACD moving above zero on the weekly. Sweet!

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Answering Some Questions From ChartCon 2016

Well, ChartCon 2016 is over. I am sitting in the coffee bar with Arthur Hill this morning and we are discussing some of the ChartCon wrap-up details. Arthur provided a great presentation on systematic trading. I presented the SCTR with some little twists for people who might have seen the SCTR presentation before. Reading through the follow-up questions and comments, there are some great ideas on topics for blogs and webinars. I will endeavour to answer some of the feedback I received.

During my SCTR presentation, I commented about Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX.TO, VRX). One of the questions related to how the SCTR would help you get out of the stock in time to miss the huge slide that happened because of Hillary Clinton's comments about Valeant. So perhaps, we should discuss that in further detail.

Here is the chart of Valeant in Canada, however, the same price action exists in the US. As StockCharts increased the number of International stocks with an SCTR in 2014, that is when the US ticker symbol (VRX) started having an SCTR. For today's comments, I would like to use the longer time frame on the Canadian ticker.

Notice that for the most of the period shown, Valeant had a very strong SCTR, so this is the type of stock investors like to fall in love with. When it's working stay with it. That sounds like a good rule. As this is a weekly chart and the grid underneath is 3 months per line, this is a big winner for long periods of time. The first chart is simply the major primary uptrend with four smaller multi-quarter uptrends.

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