Trend Check with Tushar Chande

2018 S&P 500 Forecast: Flat and Volatile (With New Sector Comparison Tool)

by Tushar Chande

Topic:  Historical model forecast suggests a flat 2018, with the potential for a volatile year.  The impact of tax law changes and mid-cycle elections could be the wild cards posing the biggest risks to my forecast.  A flat market forecast implies technical analysis will be more relevant than ever: so I show a new tool using SCTR and the Chande Trend Meter to make a joint measurement of relative and absolute trend strength. Chart 1: The 2018 forecast assuming a starting value of $SPX 2682.  The model is essentially flat, i.e., it is not expecting strong trends, but Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

Beneficiaries of Tax Reform

by Tushar Chande

How to find beneficiaries of tax reform? Well, four stocks stood out today: Blackberry (BB), FedEx(FDX), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Verizon (VZ).  They broke out to new highs as the tax reform legislation completed its journey through Congress.  One way you can search for the beneficiaries of tax reform is to look at jumps in SCTR or the Chande Trend Meter (CTM).  Another is to look at industry group trend strength via the CTM. I will briefly illustrate both approaches below. Chart 1: FedEx jumped higher as it is expected to benefit from the new tax regulations. Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

What Causes a MACD Divergence? (With Scan Code to Detect MACD Divergences)

by Tushar Chande

This blog post is for short-term players looking for counter-trend opportunities. This blog post explains why we observe divergences between the MACD indicator and stock prices.  I also describe the scan code for automatically detecting divergences using the StockCharts scan engine on daily and weekly data.  Short-term and swing traders can now automate the search for MACD divergences via this post.  Longer-term players will gain insight into how the MACD works.        Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

S&P 500 Pauses to Refresh

by Tushar Chande

Topics: Market consolidates under all time high; guessing support for $SPX; gold breaks down; semiconductors find support; dollar forms higher low, looks stronger technically.  A big thank you to Tom and Erin for inviting me to their Market Watchers Live show (on 12/06/17) and to all their listeners who tuned in and responded with questions and comments.  There are some references for you below (that connect to the discussion on the show).   Chart 1: The year-end forecast can be found here and here.   Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

Fasten Your Seatbelts

by Tushar Chande

The market is trading on emotion, so it is time to fasten your seat belts.  The melt-up in Financials best captures the near euphoric rally to new highs as tax cut legislation moved forward in the upper chamber in D.C.  As Chart 1 below of FINU, the ProShares Ultra Pro Financial Sector ETF shows, the past three days have seen sharp moves.  The last bar has a small open-close range and a long high-open range, which suggests the market has touched some resistance overhead.   Chart 1: The FINU accelerated to new highs, but as the last bar shows, it seems to have met some Read More