A lot of recent optimism on the stock market and the economy has been predicated on the view that the historic rise in oil prices has probably ended. A lot of economists have also declared the major bull market in commodities over. Both of those predictions may prove to have been premature. Over the last two weeks, the price of crude oil has bounce off its 200-day moving average and then risen to the highest level in more than a month. After a pullback yesterday, it's trading back over $54 today. The chart below reflects the recent improvement in the price of crude and suggests a possible retest of its early April high. That explains the recent move back into energy stocks. It may also explain why the recent market rally is running into some profit-taking. Crude isn't the only commodity that's turned up recently. The CRB Index of commodities is rising again after bouncing off major support levels.
