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September 2010

ChartWatchers

A GUIDE TO THE STOCKCHARTS SOCIAL SCENE

by Chip Anderson

FACEBOOK? TWITTER? YOU TUBE? LINKED-IN? - In case you missed it, StockCharts has recently expanded into several different social media networks.  So, what do you need to do about it?  Do you have to join these things too?  If so, which ones?  What's different about the information there compared to what's on the website?  We agree that it can be confusing.  Here's an FAQ about it: Q: What's the difference between these four new areas and the website?A: Our website contains the vast majority of our content in both the tools area and in our Blogs area Read More 

ChartWatchers

BASIC MATERIALS LEAD MARKET RALLY

by John Murphy

I wrote on Tuesday that strength in foreign currencies (especially commodity currencies like the Aussie and Canadian Dollars) was negative for the U.S. Dollar but positive for most commodities. One reason for that view is that stronger foreign currencies suggest growing confidence in the global economy. Another sign of growing optimism is that basic materials (which are tied to commodites) have been the strongest market sector since the market bottomed in early July. Chart 1 shows the Materials Sector SPDR (XLB) already trading at the highest level in more than four months. Its rising Read More 

ChartWatchers

S&P 500 HEADED TO HISTORICAL OCTOBER BOTTOM?

by Richard Rhodes

The S&P 500 is square within the September/October "historically weak" time frame, but it has been nothing short of astounding to be sureto the upside. We've seen a rally in 10 of the past 13 days, with prices now squarely upon major previous high resistance. And we believe the counter-trend rally in all probability ended itself in the wee hours of Friday morning's overseas trade with the S&P futures breaking out above the 1131 leveland promptly failing. If Friday hadn't been the "triple witching" of options and futures (we refuse to recognize "quadruple witching" given we Read More 

ChartWatchers

FINDING THE NEW EMERGING LEADERS

by Tom Bowley

Let's do a case study. Wouldn't it be great to find the next Google (GOOG) or Apple (AAPL) in the early stages, before the meteoric rise?  It's definitely possible, but it takes homework and TONS of patience.  Every great long-term performer goes through similar breakout stages.  They will base, many times for long stretches, before another breakout occurs.  They tend to be strong relative performers, meaning they tend to base when the market breaks down and soar during market advances.  Occasionally, they even flat out break down before later resuming their Read More 

ChartWatchers

NEW LONG-TERM BUY SIGNAL

by Carl Swenlin

Today another long-term buy signal was generated when the S&P 500 Index 50-EMA crossed up through the 200-EMA. Normally, we have high confidence in these signals, but, unfortunately, the long-term model has generated four, count 'em, four "long-term" signals in less than three months. On the chart below the red arrows mark the sell signals and the green arrows the buy signals. Prices have entered a trading range and, as you can see, they move just far enough in one direction to trigger a signal, then they reverse and go just far enough in the opposite direction to trigger the reverse Read More 

ChartWatchers

FIBO FANS, ARCS AND TIMEZONES - OH MY!

by Chip Anderson

Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! Today we're taking the wraps off of our upcoming major upgrade to our ChartNotes annotation tool.  We've been working on this for a while now and we are getting close to releasing it out to everyone.  Even though it will probably be a couple more weeks before things are ready for release, I wanted to give you a sneak peek at some of the features that are headed your way soon.  Check out this screenshot:   In addition to all the new Fibonacci tools that we're adding, you'll also notice a new Triangle shape tool and the Quadrant Read More 

ChartWatchers

OFFENSIVE SECTORS LEAD SEPTEMBER SURGE

by Arthur Hill

Leadership from three of the four key offensive sectors makes the September surge all the more impressive. I consider the consumer discretionary, finance, technology and industrials sectors as the offensive sectors that are key to the stock market and the economy. Leadership from at least 2 of the 4 is needed for a rally to have legs. Consumer discretionary represents the most economically sensitive sector (think retail). Finance represents the health of the banking system. Industrials represent the industrial base. Technology represents the appetite for risk with its high-beta stocks Read More 

ChartWatchers

REPORTING LIVE FROM A SHARPCHART NEAR YOU!

by Chip Anderson

Hello Fellow ChartWatchers, Today we're happy to announce the launch of our new tutorial video area.  You and find it at http://youtube.com/stockchartscom.  YouTube members can subscribe to that "channel" and get notified whenever we post a new one.  (We'll also announce new ones on the website)  (and on our Facebook page)  (and on our Twitter feed). The first video we created is an especially important one.  It's called "Getting Started with StockCharts.com" and it shows you seven important things that all StockCharts.com members Read More 

ChartWatchers

WILL EARLY SEPTEMBER RALLY HAVE STAYING POWER?

by Richard Rhodes

The summer is coming to an end for all practical purposes, with many traders returning from their vacations to a budding sharp rally. This presents an interesting situation for traders, for the historically weakest period lies directly ahead - the September/October time frame. Hence, the question is whether last week's rally was counter-trend in nature, or whether it represents a "thrust higher" of another sustained rally towards higher highs. In our opinion, it is too early to determine - but there several critical levels that will provide additional confidence in one viewpoint or the Read More 

ChartWatchers

IS A HEAD AND SHOULDERS BOTTOM FORMING IN STOCK?

by John Murphy

Today's message is going to represent a shift in emphasis in favor of stocks. As you know, I've been writing since the spring about the huge move into bonds and out of stocks owing to fears of economic slowdown and deflation. I've also written in the past (June 17 to be exact), however, that a four-year cycle bottom is due sometime during the second half of this year. Although that four-year bottom usually kicks in during October, the last one (2006) took place during July and August (so it can happen earlier). It's also well known that September and October can be especially dangerous Read More 

ChartWatchers

FOUR KEYS TO A CONTINUING RALLY

by Tom Bowley

Semiconductors.  Financials.  Small Caps.  10 Year Treasury Yields. Take a look at the following chart as the relative performance of each of the above is plotted against the S&P 500:   These are four of the biggest reasons why the market hasn't been able to sustain a move to the upside since April.  Until relative leadership returns (and stays for more than just a few days), the market is destined to waffle or head lower. Semiconductors have been dreadful.  Talk about a lagging group since April!  The S&P 500 is 3% away from a Read More 

ChartWatchers

FIVE POSITIVES FOR THE DOW SPDR IN 2010

by Arthur Hill

Stocks have been largely range bound throughout 2010, but the positives still outweigh the negatives overall. Chart 7 shows the **Dow SPDR (DIA)** starting the year just below 105 in January and finishing just below 105 this week. While it appears that DIA has nothing to show for eight months of trading, there are at least five (5) positives on this chart. orking from left to right, DIA recorded a new 52-week high with the move above 110 in April (1). Despite a new high, the ETF then declined and broke its February low in late June. This seemed bearish at the time, but the ETF quickly Read More 

ChartWatchers

ICI MUTUAL FUND STATISTICS

by Carl Swenlin

The Investment Company Institute (ici.org) compiles statistics on mutual funds and publishes them monthly. (There is a one month delay between the end of the month being reported and publication.) Decision Point has been collecting these data for almost five years, and we finally have enough to start charting it.  Amounts shown on the charts are in billions. The bottom panel on the first chart shows the percentage of of mutual fund assets held in cash. A low percentage of cash indicates that fund managers are bullish on stocks and do not believe they will need much Read More