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October 2012

ChartWatchers

Announcing a Significant Expansion to StockCharts University

by Chip Anderson

Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! Long-time ChartWatchers know that from the very beginning, StockCharts.com has been about the synergy of three things: Great online finanical analysis tools, Great educational content, and Great market commentary that brings it all together.  Today, I'm happy to announce a significant expansion to our StockCharts University (SCU) seminar series that will bolster our educational efforts tremendously. At this point, we've held three seminars with our initial SCU class - "Using StockCharts.com Successfully" - and all of them were very positively reviewed by Read More 

ChartWatchers

The Loonie Heads South for the Snowbird Season

by Greg Schnell

Given the current chart for the Canadian Dollar, migrating snowbirds might want to exchange some loonies for some sawbucks very soon.  The Canadian Dollar continues to hit resistance above the $1.02 level.  It had a rough week chart-wise, forming a big red bar on the Elder Impulse System chart. On the other hand, the US Dollar is strengthening, breaking to the upside compared to the Yen ($XJY), the British Pound ($XBP), the Euro ($XEU), and the Loonie ($CDW). Commodities have a rough time whenever $USD is strong which is one reason that Gold behaved poorly on Friday Read More 

ChartWatchers

Travelers ($TRV) Leads Insurance Group Higher

by John Murphy

Insurance stocks are attracting a lot of new money into a reviving financial sector. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones US Property & Casualty Insurance Index surging to the highest level in five years. Its relative strength line (below chart) is starting to break out to the upside. The main catalyst behind today's buying is coming from Travelers. Chart 2 shows Travelers (TRV) surging to a new record high. New records are also being hit by Ace and Chubb. As good as their performance is, many investors may shy away from buying them because they've already had a strong run. Fortunately Read More 

ChartWatchers

Financials and Technology Stocks Diverging

by Tom Bowley

October has been a very strange month thus far.  While most of our sectors are trading close to the flat line for the month, financials and technology are heading in opposite directions.  I can't recall a two week period where the returns of these two influential sectors diverged by 8%, especially where one is performing with solid relative strength while the other completely falls apart.  Take a look at this chart:  Could these two sectors be any more opposite one another?  These are both "risk on" sectors, so they tend to head in the same direction.  After Read More 

ChartWatchers

Lessons from the 1987 Crash

by Carl Swenlin

It has been 25 years since the 1987 Crash, and I thought it would be a good time review a few things that probably won't be covered elsewhere in the media. I may have covered these issues in the past, but a refresher can't hurt. One thing that some analysts like to do is to note the similarity of past price patterns to current price patterns, implying that the current pattern will resolve similarly to the historical example. In 1987 we have an example of how dangerous such assumptions can be. On the chart below I have circled two price patterns that are remarkably similar Read More 

ChartWatchers

Technology Buyers Beware...

by Richard Rhodes

Last's week's early market rally seemingly disavowed all the bad news; which is of course what this market has been doing since the summer. However, we may be premature - but we are certain the market is changing its stripes from focusing upon "benefits" and tail-wind of QE-3; and focusing more upon the poor earnings and revenue reports coming out of corporate America. Quite simply, the European and Chinese slowdowns were bound to have an impact upon US stock prices; it was only a question of "when" within the context of an increase in monetary liquidity. Note the Google (GOOG) debacle Read More 

ChartWatchers

XLY and XLI Set Up Key Support Tests

by Arthur Hill

Weakness in the technology sector has been offset by strength in the finance sector since early September. This is why the S&P 500 is range bound the last five weeks and the Nasdaq is in a downtrend. With these two sectors cancelling each other out, chartists must turn to another sector to break the deadlock. My vote goes to the consumer discretionary sector because it is the most economically sensitive sector. One could also consider the industrials sector because it supplies companies with capital-intensive goods and services needed for their operations. Both sectors are clearly Read More 

ChartWatchers

New Performance Chart Workbench lets you create, annotate and save SharpChart-based PerfCharts

by Chip Anderson

Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! We've had interactive, Java-based PerfCharts going back to the very start of the website.  And while those PerfCharts are very useful, they do have some limitations.  For one, members cannot save them into their accounts.  Also, our interactive PerfCharts cannot be annotated with our ChartNotes annotation tool. Today, I'm pleased to announce a new feature for all StockCharts.com users - our new Performance Chart Workbench.  It makes it very easy to create, annotate and save performance charts based on our SharpCharts charting engine Read More 

ChartWatchers

TIPS AND GOLD RELINK AFTER QE3

by John Murphy

Two of the top performing assets since the September 13 launch of QE3 have been Treasury Inflation Protected Securites (TIPS) and gold. That makes sense considering that both are used as hedges against inflation. The fact is that both markets have had a strong correlation over the last decade. Chart 1 compares the performance of gold and the Barclays TIPS Bond Fund (TIP) over the last six years. That visual link between the two markets is confirmed by the Correlation Coefficient (below Chart 1) which was well into positive territory between 2007 and 2011. Their correlation weakened during Read More 

ChartWatchers

BEARS GONE, BULLS BEGIN FOR NATURAL GAS

by Richard Rhodes

Quite simply, a bear market has ended, and a bull market has begun in the Natural Gas market. This has been quite some time in the making, for the relationship between natural gas and crude oil has been skewed for a number of years in favor of natural gas. Now, we feel confident in the fact that the trend has changed in favor of natural gas on both an absolute and relative basis versus crude oil as well as the S&P 500.Perusing the weekly Natural Gas chart, one can easily see that the simple downward sloping trend-line was violated after several touches. This simple, but elegant Read More 

ChartWatchers

FOURTH QUARTER OUTLOOK

by Tom Bowley

To be honest, I'm not a big fan of providing outlooks too far into the future because prices change continually.  As a technician, I realize charts can change daily.  Therefore, I have to be willing to change my thinking on a dime and, if you're managing your own money, you should too.  But I do like to evaluate the likelihood that a trend, either up or down, is sustainable.  With that in mind, let's take a look at gold.  A little over a month ago, I wrote about the "gold rush" being on.  Since that time, gold has risen another $100 per ounce, or roughly Read More 

ChartWatchers

SOARING GAS PRICES IN CALIFORNIA

by Carl Swenlin

According to a news clip I just saw, there is a gas station in the Los Angeles area currently selling regular gasoline for $5.58/gallon. Some gas stations are shutting down because the owners don't want to buy gas at these prices for fear that they won't be able to sell it. Prices have been moving higher over the last few months, but the recent increases have fallen like a ton of bricks on consumers. My immediate response was to check the charts for crude oil and gasoline. We can see from the weekly charts that crude is about midway its five-year range, and has most recently been Read More 

ChartWatchers

Metals and Mining SPDR Battles Breakout

by Arthur Hill

The Metals & Mining SPDR (XME) is battling to hold its resistance breakout. XME broke resistance with a big surge in early September and broken resistance turns into first support in the 43 area. This is a classic tenet of technical analysis: broken resistance turns support. A spinning top formed at the end of September and the ETF consolidated the next seven trading days. Monday‚Äôs high marks short-term resistance and a close above this level would be bullish. This would reinforce support in the 43 area and increase the chances of a continuation higher. Also note that there is a Read More