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November 2014

ChartWatchers

Stalking the Elusive Holiday Consumer with Technical Analysis

by Chip Anderson

Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! I'm going to start with four important announcements and then we'll get into some sector-oriented market analysis: We now have the video of our ChartCon conference from back in August available in our bookstore.  It contains all of the main presentations from the conference including talks by John Murphy, Martin Pring, Alexander Elder, Arthur Hill and many more.  The material presented is just as relevant today as it was back in August.  If you attended the conference, this is a great way to refresh your memories of what Read More 

ChartWatchers

Wal-Mart Jumps to Record High, Retail ETFs Have Benefited From Plunge in Crude Oil

by John Murphy

Chart 1 shows Wal Mart surging 4% today to break out to a record high. That's a pleasant change for the world's largest retailer which has hardly been a market leaders. The WMT/SPX relative strength ratio (above chart) is just starting to rise after falling for most of the last year. That's obviously a positive sign for the retail sector as well. Falling oil prices are one of the catalysts behind the recent surge in retailers. But there may be more to it than that. Lower end retailers appear to be getting most of the boost from falling energy costs. In addition to Walmart, that would Read More 

ChartWatchers

Earnings Season Delivers

by Tom Bowley

If ever the bulls needed to see some stellar earnings results and/or positive forward guidance, it was about one month ago.  From the late September high of 2019 to the mid-October low of 1821, the S&P 500 fell nearly 10% just as earnings season kicked off.  During the height of earnings season over the past four weeks, the stock market reversed and completely erased all of those pre-earnings season losses and even managed to tack on another 1% or so. So what areas of the market triggered this bullish reversal?  Well, let me first tell you the two sectors that did not - Read More 

ChartWatchers

After Saying Good Buy, Is The Consumer Cyclicals (XLY) Saying Good Bye?

by Greg Schnell

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) is also referred to as Consumer Cyclicals (XLY) . This is the sector we would like to see break out to new highs. This week it did. Who could be not be bullish? Every thing I see on the chart looks so good. I saw a pick up in some of the dining stocks, the homebuilders and AMZN within the broaden retailers. It all looks so good.  However, let's take a look at the RRG. In the last 2 weeks, the XLY on Chart 2 moved from the green quadrant to the red quadrant. Because it is so close to the centre it is Read More 

ChartWatchers

Stock Indices may be Overbought, But They are by No Means Weak

by Arthur Hill

The stock market is in a clear uptrend, but is short-term overbought after a big run the last four weeks. I am assuming that the trend is up because the S&P 500, S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index, Dow Industrials, Dow Transports, Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite recorded new highs this week. The S&P MidCap 400, Russell 2000 and S&P Small-Cap 600 are lagging, but these three are within 4% of their highs. The PerfChart below shows, however, that small-caps, mid-caps and the Nasdaq 100 have outperformed the S&P 500 since October 14th. Even though small-caps and mid-caps have been Read More 

ChartWatchers

Metal Health

by Erin Swenlin

Forgive me! I couldn't resist that cheesy headline stolen from the Quiet Riot album title. The headline is true, metals had a healthy day, as did other natural resource ETFs. I've highlighted notable ETFs right from our DecisionPoint ETF Tracker Report found in the DP Tracker Blog. This displays only a small portion of the ETFs we cover in the Tracker Report and only the section that sorts by the day's percentage change. I've selected four of the charts for analysis. Let's look at the Gold ETF, GLD. What Read More 

ChartWatchers

Japan Announces Big Jump in Asset Buying

by John Murphy

Japanese authorities surprised everyone on Friday by increasing their already aggressive bond purchases (QE) by a third. In addition, it will expand those purchases to include stocks and real estate investments. The Japanese pension fund also announced that it will increase its allocation to domestic and foreign stocks. That gave a huge boost to global stocks. The most dramatic effect was seen in Japan. Chart 1 shows the Japanese yen tumbling to the lowest level in seven years. At the same time, the Nikkei Index surged nearly 5% to the highest level in seven years. We've pointed out many Read More 

ChartWatchers

Is The Latest Breakout A Trick or Treat?

by Tom Bowley

First, let me say Happy Halloween to all!  It's an exciting time for many, but especially the children.  I know our neighborhood is always buzzing with kids anticipating the sugarfest!  :-) Unfortunately, the stock market bears were SPOOKED on Halloween this year.  I've said for months the biggest problem with shorting all the warning signs I've been seeing throughout 2014 are the central bankers.  We've seen it all too often here in the U.S. - just when it appears there's been irreparable technical damage inflicted on stocks, the Fed steps in with another round Read More 

ChartWatchers

Japanese Stimulus Delivers A Sweet New High To US Markets

by Greg Schnell

The continued desire of central banks to stimulate the economy seems to be onto its next round. With the Halloween announcement of the Japanese Pension Fund spending $247 Billion on equities worldwide and at least 1/2 of that on foreign equities, it would appear a new buyer is showing up for work. While this is not the central bank directly, the central bank announced more bond buying, which happens to match the Pension fund wanting to unload about $250 billion. By selling to the Bank of Japan, the pension fund has found a way to move the bonds out of their portfolio. If we Read More 

ChartWatchers

Array of New Highs Reflects Broad Market Strength

by Arthur Hill

Not every index and not every sector recorded a new high this week, but several key indexes recorded new highs and the majority of sectors hit new highs. This shows broad market strength that validates the long-term uptrend in stocks. The only negative is that stocks are short-term overbought after big moves. This negative, however, is actually a positive because it takes strong buying pressure to become overbought. On a closing basis, the Dow Industrials, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow Transports recorded new 52-week highs this week. The S&P Small-Cap 600 and the S&P Read More