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About this blog: is our free newsletter for individuals interested in technical trading and chart analysis. It is sent out twice a month via email. This blog contains early-access, preview versions of the articles that later appear in the official newsletter.

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ChartWatchers

Bouncing Dollar Hurts Gold, Rising Rates Boost Copper

by John Murphy

The fact that U.S. rates are rising faster than elsewhere on the globe is boosting the dollar. A rising dollar usually hurts the price of gold. And it is. Chart 1 shows the upturn in the Dollar Index (UUP) near the start of September (when Treasury yields turned up) coinciding with a decline in gold (GLD). It also makes economic sense that a stronger global economy would favor stocks tied to industrial metals (like aluminum, copper, and steel) over gold. And that is certainly the case. The rising brown line in Chart 2 is a ratio of the copper miners ETF (COPX) divided by gold miners (GDX) Read More 

ChartWatchers

Gold Losing Its Shine - New IT Trend Model Neutral Signal Arrives

by Erin Swenlin

I recently wrote about Gold in the DecisionPoint blog. We saw the 20-EMA pull out of its decline to keep its ITTM BUY signal. However, the gravitational pull of price after it couldn't hold support at 1300 was too much and the 20-EMA finished just below the 50-EMA today. An ITTM Neutral signal is generated when the 20-EMA crosses below the 50-EMA while the 50-EMA is above the 200-EMA. Recall that if the 50-EMA is above the 200-EMA, it implies that bull market rules should be applied. With that in mind, a negative crossover is a neutral rather than a SELL if the 50-EMA is above the 200-EMA Read More 

ChartWatchers

Earnings Season Full Speed Ahead

by John Hopkins

Earnings season is in full swing now and so far so good. How do I know this? All you have to do is look at the overall market reaction. And it doesn't hurt when a giant tech company left for dead knocks it out of the park. Take a look at the chart below on IBM, a company that has been lagging the market for a long time. but with one earnings announcement IBM reminded the market it still has some life in it, climbing 10% after reporting a blowout quarter. You can see from the price and volume action how pleased investors were with the results. IBM is still well off its March high but now Read More 

ChartWatchers

Get Ready - Earnings Season is About to Begin

by John Hopkins

They say how time flies; and it's true, especially from one earnings season to another, and starting this week we're going to start hearing from thousands of companies as they release their numbers. And boy, there's nothing traders and longer term investors care about more than earnings. This makes total sense. Think about it. Companies cannot control everything swirling around them. What they can do is adapt to the times, adjust their strategies as necessary and stay focused while delivering strong results for their shareholders. One thing is for sure; traders gravitate to those Read More 

ChartWatchers

The NASDAQ 100 Hit a Record High This Week, But Still Lags The S&P 500

by John Murphy

Chart 1 shows the Powershares QQQ ETF hitting a record high this week. It was the last of the major stock indexes to do so, and its breakout is a positive sign for the market. It also did slightly better than the rest of the market. The QQQ, however, has still been a relative laggard over the last month. That's shown by the falling QQQ/SPX ratio since the start of September (blue line). This week's upturn in its RS line may be a sign that some funds are flowing back into large tech stocks. But there's more going on beneath the surface with the QQQ. For one thing, comparing the QQQ to the Read More 

ChartWatchers

Four Critical Signals That Confirm It's Full Speed Ahead For Equities

by Tom Bowley

I've been following the stock market for a long time and I'm always searching for that perfect signal that never fails.  I still haven't found it and there are never any guarantees in the stock market, BUT following the rotation of money to aggressive areas of the stock market can provide fairly reliable confirmation that a bull market rally is sustainable.  The four relative ratios that I rely on the most are the following: 1.  Consumer discretionary vs. consumer staples (XLY:XLP) This is just a very simple analysis of whether market participants are Read More 

ChartWatchers

A Pullback in the Energy SPDR? Here's What to Watch.

by Arthur Hill

The Energy SPDR (XLE) is the top performing sector SPDR since mid August with a double digit advance over the last seven weeks. On the price chart, XLE broke out of the channel, exceeded its summer highs and pushed RSI above 70 for the first time this year. It was a remarkable move, but the ETF is short-term overbought and ripe for a corrective period, which could involve a pullback or a consolidation.  Where might a pullback find support and reverse? I am watching the summer highs, the Fibonacci Retracements and RSI for answers to this question. A key tenet of Read More 

ChartWatchers

Weekly PMO BUY Signals Explode on DecisionPoint Scoreboards

by Erin Swenlin

Today all but the NDX garnered new PMO BUY signals in the intermediate term. The intermediate-term PMO signals are gathered from the weekly chart PMOs and their crossovers. I'll give you a peek at the NDX weekly chart too, but it is much further away from a new weekly BUY signal. In fact, the NDX weekly chart looks surprisingly bearish.  The SPX is in a rising trend channel. Trend lines are in the eyes of the beholder and remember, you can draw interior trendlines, tight trendlines to OHLC bars/line charts, or you can draw a trendline that hits most rising bottoms (or Read More 

ChartWatchers

The $USD Hits Resistance

by Greg Schnell

This week the US Dollar climbed to its highest level in two months. For those who have been following the Commodities Countdown articles, the reversal in the $USD was expected from the big downtrend. The three-year chart of the $USD shows the Euro turning higher at the start of 2017, the British Pound basing until March and then turning higher and the Canadian Dollar bottoming in May and surging higher. With every chart making new 52-week highs against the Dollar, this is a significant technical change. The $USD made new two-year lows. The macro suggests major change is afoot Read More 

ChartWatchers

Rising Energy Prices Help Boost August CPI, British Pound Surges to Yearly High

by John Murphy

ENERGY ETF REACHES FIVE-MONTH HIGH It was reported Thursday that the headline CPI for August rose 0.4% from the previous month, which was its biggest monthly gain since January. That boosted its year-over-year comparison to 1.9%, which is just shy of the Fed's target of 2% inflation. The biggest reason for that jump was a 2.8% monthly gain in the price of gasoline. The core CPI figure (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% during August, which was its biggest monthly gain since February (for a year-over-year gain of 1.7%). Rising housing costs were the biggest reason for that gain Read More 

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