Commodities Countdown

Commodities Near Two Week Lows - Webinar Skim 2016-07-14 - New Global Bull Market?

Greg Schnell

Greg Schnell

Chief Technical Analyst, Osprey Strategic

The commodities have pulled back gently this week near two-week lows. In the face of the commodities pulling back, global markets have rallied. Financials have rallied globally and JPM fuelled a broad bank rally. You can click here to watch the webinar where I covered off the potential for a bull market globally.

Commodities Countdown LIVE! with Greg Schnell - 2016-07-14 17:00 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo.

Webinar // $CRB Commodities 0:00 // Gold & Gold Miners 10:00 // Industrial Metals 13:30 // GSCI 16:00 // Breadth 19:00 // Bonds 27:00 // Transports 30:00 // Autos 33:00 // Global Checkup 37:00 // Industrial Stocks 48:00 // Q & A 50:00 //



Copper has been bouncing around, but it is looking closer to an upside breakout.

Both Oil and Natural Gas have been trading sideways for most of the last two weeks. For $WTIC, looking at the zoom box on the right shows price oscillating down towards $45. I have displayed a couple of places to expect support. The Fibonacci ratios come in at $41 and $38. Interestingly, the 200 DMA is at $41 and the left side of a head/shoulders base is at $38. Looking at the MACD, we are moving further into negative territory. Looks like a little more corrective action before this is over.

Natural Gas has had a couple of quiet weeks after a good run from $1.6 to $3.00. Looks like some potential for support at the blue line. I suppose Canadians always expect support at the blue line (Er...hockey that is).

The bonds look ready to roll over. TBT looks way more interesting to me on the long side than TLT.

One of the reasons for my thinking here is the leadership by the Municipal Bonds (MYI) has suddenly sold off to make 2-month lows. The volume this week was the highest in 2 years as represented by the black line. Also, the Relative Strength broke a year-long trend line this week. There is also negative divergence on the most recent high on the MACD.

The Commodities Countdown Webinar 2016-07-14 recording has a lot more information. I am also doing a series on some Canadian industries with most of them being commodity-related on the Canadian Technician blog. You can follow me on twitter @Schnellinvestor and LinkedIn. If you would like to receive the Commodity Countdown articles in your email, please click on the subscribe button below. Lastly, I published an important article for the Gold Mining stocks on Thursday. You can follow this link for that. Do You Think Gold Miners Have Made An Exceptional Move? 

In summary, I am very bullish on a global breakout here. There are lots of charts breaking out of trading ranges and that seems to be happening across the globe. It might not be the summer doldrums we expect.

Good trading,
Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA.

Greg Schnell
About the author: , CMT, MFTA is Chief Technical Analyst at Osprey Strategic specializing in intermarket and commodities analysis. He is also the co-author of Stock Charts For Dummies (Wiley, 2018). Based in Calgary, Greg is a board member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA) and the chairman of the CSTA Calgary chapter. He is an active member of both the CMT Association and the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA). Learn More