Commodities Countdown

The Dollar Bets, Oil Checks, Gold Folds - Webinar Skim 2016-11-24

Greg Schnell

Greg Schnell

Chief Technical Analyst, Osprey Strategic

This week was a wild week for the Dollar ($USD). It tested 102 but closed the week just slightly higher. However, the breakout last week was confirmed with this week closing higher so the breakout is valid.

I usually look for the $USD to weaken around month end, so this will be interesting to see how it all plays out. If you look at the candles going back to the beginning of 2016, 8 months out of 10 sold off in the last week or the first week of the month. I mention it because the dollar may need to rest a little bit but I still think the big bull is intact.


For Oil ($WTIC), it tested higher but closed lower. This is a little more worrisome, because last week it broke below the upward trend. It did close last week back inside the range, but the break of the trend intra-week was concerning. This week had a few good rally days but we closed near the lows of the week and below last week's close. That's just not good price action. While it did have a low volume week (Thanksgiving effect), real bulls can rage onward like the $USD did. Stay tuned...this could be the wild west for Oil next week on the OPEC meeting.

Gold ($GOLD) folded. A rising $USD is usually a part of gold falling and this week was no exception. Based on my comments for the $USD, Gold may rally for the next 2 weeks if the $USD softens over month end, but that would be a counter trend move. Vicious both directions. Use a short time frame chart if you want to trade it!

I started the webinar this week and made a small mistake. Apparently my screen was not shown to viewers for the first few minutes. So the global charts I commented on are posted here.

Australia ($AORD) broke the downtrend so that makes me a little more bullish that this Trump Jump is going to broaden out to the rest of the world. This week quite a few of the Australian / Asian charts started to jump.

The Hong Kong Hang Seng ($HSI) broke the 2-month downtrend as well.

Our good friends in Japan ($NIKK) got shook with a couple of Level 7 earthquakes, but they still rattled their market higher.

The Shanghai ($SSEC) also perked up, so I am bullish on Asia joining the party.

The Bombay Stock Exchange ($BSE) closed higher, but there are some odd circumstances there. The government is trying to stop the circulation of counterfeit bills, so they asked everyone to change out their old bills for a new design. This has created mass confusion there, so the chart might be a little out of phase with the rest of the world. However, the bullish hammer candle was a very positive development.

The Canadian market ($TSX) shot higher.

Looking through Europe things are not as rosy. Germany ($DAX) had a doji (closed where it opened) and could not follow the rest of the world higher.

The French market ($CAC) looks similar to the German market shown above.

England ($FTSE) is a fly in the Europe ointment. It's chart pattern does not resemble the French or German charts. It closed up on the week, but there are some nasty volatile candles in October.

As a side note, Greece ($ATG) is actually perking up. Not that it matters, but there might be a glimmer of hope that the chart has finished basing.

Italy ($MIB) has the referendum on December 4th. Stay tuned, this will probably have a massive move in it soon. The Bollinger Bands are pinching down.

Here is a link to the Commodities Countdown 2016-11-24 webinar. There are a few ideas for trading around commodities on there. One of the ideas is around agriculture. You may wish to peruse why this might be the next big thing. That's it for the Thanksgiving edition of Commodity Countdown. Thanks for reading!

Good trading,
Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA.

Greg Schnell
About the author: , CMT, MFTA is Chief Technical Analyst at Osprey Strategic specializing in intermarket and commodities analysis. He is also the co-author of Stock Charts For Dummies (Wiley, 2018). Based in Calgary, Greg is a board member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA) and the chairman of the CSTA Calgary chapter. He is an active member of both the CMT Association and the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA). Learn More