Commodities Countdown

Lots Of Rollover On Commodity Charts 2018-02-01 Video

  • Gold and Silver stall
  • Oil keeps climbing
  • Natural Gas forgets to keep climbing
  • Lithium, Rare Earth Metals, Copper stall
  • Corn, Soya bean, Wheat break trend lines

Gold is building an inside bar this week. While the end of the month shows January finishing just below resistance, everything on this chart suggests $GOLD wants to go higher. The volume last week on the surge towards resistance was bullish. While the price pauses here, keep your eyes tuned. If this starts to move, it should be dramatic. The PPO breaking out above the 18-month trend line is important. This would be one of the signals I really want to see.

$SILVER is not as bullish but it is not bearish. It is important to see Silver support Gold's move. The RSI says it is in a bull market. The long uptrend in momentum is setting up. But so far, the price has not popped. Last week, a big surge on high volume showed up, which is very bullish. This week, we have an inside week so far.

The ratio of the Gold bugs $HUI compared to the $SPX is also an important trend. The chart is right at the end of the trend line and at horizontal support. What happens next is very important! The PPO trend line is five years long and improving, but it needs to go positive. If it turns down here, this is significant. 

Before I continue with more charting:

I want to point out that something big happened today! We opened the registration for Chartcon 2018! We have some seating available for people who would like to attend in person. Quite frankly, I would love to meet you if you choose to come in person! I will do whatever I can to sit down and do a one-on-one session to try and answer any questions you may have. We have an UNBELIEVABLE lineup of great friends and speakers. You gotta click this button!!!!!!!!!! Chartcon 2018.

You gotta register to watch it online or in person! By the way, it is going to be fun too! So register either way! Chartcon 2018. Chartcon 2018. Chartcon 2018. Chartcon 2018. Chartcon 2018. Chartcon 2018.

Ok, back to charts!

Crude oil ($WTIC) keeps climbing, but the XOP and XLE are not very good. XLE has more than just oil companies in it. But XOP is the oil exploration and production ETF. Look how good the 50 day moving average is for support and resistance. Why is the XOP so close to the 50 DMA and crude oil is so far above its 50 day ma.

The XLE changed direction over the past week. Thursday gave a welcome bounce to the ETF, but all eyes are focused on if this run in energy is losing steam.

Natural Gas ($NATGAS) has not been as cooperative. Do you see any correlation in the $NATGAS chart to XLE or XOP?

More charts below, but I also recorded a Canadian Technician recording this week. It might be considered a lead-in to the Commodities Countdown recording for this week. Lots of reversals on some of the overseas charts. The Canadian market is near three-month lows. While that does not sound so dramatic, it sure does in light of the US market soaring 5.5 % in January.


Canada Goes Negative For The Year 2018-01-30 from on Vimeo.

Lithium and Rare Earth Metals both rolled over. The Lithium ETF (LIT) is near 5-month lows. The Rare Earth Metals  ETF (REMX) has a lower high on the weekly chart and a straight up trend. It's not broken, but it needs to be watched closely. 

My chart of Corn, Wheat and Soybean.  Finally a trend line break on all three together!

There is a lot of information in this week's Commodities Countdown Recording 2018-02-01. I cover off the damage in some of the foreign markets and commodity related trades.

Commodity Markets Mixed In January 2018-02-01 from on Vimeo.

Good trading,
Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA.

Greg Schnell
About the author: , CMT, is a Senior Technical Analyst at specializing in intermarket and commodities analysis. Based in Calgary, he is a board member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA) and the chairman of the CSTA Calgary chapter. He is also the author of Stock Charts for Dummies (Wiley, 2018). Learn More
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