Commodities Countdown

Greg Schnell
About the author: , CMT, is a Senior Technical Analyst at StockCharts.com specializing in intermarket and commodities analysis. Based in Calgary, he is a board member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA) and the chairman of the CSTA Calgary chapter. He is also the author of Stock Charts for Dummies (Wiley, 2018).

Latest Posts

Commodities Countdown

Commodity Countries Surge 2018-05-04 Video

by Greg Schnell

Commodity Countries Canada and Australia charts both start to surge this week with Canada making a new three month high. Australia. When compared to the $SPX, we can see that commodity countries are starting to take the lead on the very short term. It's been a long time since they have outperformed. Below is the $SPX. It would need to rally 100 points to get back to three month highs. However, the MACD shape looks like it could start to turn up on the $SPX chart. Then we'll have to watch to see if they can keep up or lead an advancing $SPX. Crude oil closed Friday Read More 

Commodities Countdown

The US Dollar Breaks Out 2018-04-20

by Greg Schnell

US Dollar breaks out Commodity currencies breaks down Oil stalls near $70 Gold miners start to outperform the metal Bonds can't maintain 3% breakout The $USD momentum (PPO) turned up over a month ago. Finally the $USD followed through on the move. This is critical for commodities. While it might not follow through the same week, a fast moving dollar would suggest weakness in commodities. The Canadian Dollar and the Australian Dollar both broke down this week. Even the British Pound broke down this week which has a lot of commodity Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Have You Noticed this Trend In Corrections?

by Greg Schnell

Earnings season happens four times a year. January, April, July and October. While most of us know that the bulk of earnings come out in those months, there are still a lot of stocks that deliver results between earnings periods. The topic for today is to share a pattern that sometimes sets up around earnings periods for the last 8 years. Essentially, as the earnings month draws to a close, the market makes a top and then resumes a rally near the first of the following earnings month. The example this year would be the market topping January 26th and rallying April 1, 2018. There is a Read More 

Commodities Countdown

The CMT Association Symposium 2018 Review

by Greg Schnell

As I write this article, I am sitting in the mountains, watching a glass smooth lake warm up in the morning sun. The only ripple is caused by an eagle tormenting some birds sitting in the water. It's a long, long way from the bustle of New York City but its a great place to reflect and review the learnings from this years CMT Association conference. Each year for the last 7 years, I have attended the MTA Association symposium in New York City. Bill Kelleher and Tyler Wood have organized the conference the last few years. Hats off to them, they do a great job every year. This year was Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Gold and Silver 2018-04-13 Video

by Greg Schnell

Gold and Silver have been perking up lately. More importantly the miners have been moving faster than the metals.  I am posting this blog on Tuesday and the precious metals stocks are flying even though Gold is unchanged on the day.  When the mining stocks outperform the metals, this is usually an excellent time to be invested in the industry. Here is a chart of the miners compared to the metal. The huge breakout continues. This suggests to me that Gold is finally going to break above the 5 year base. Last week it briefly broke Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Commodities Wiggle Lower 2018-04-05 Video

by Greg Schnell

Commodities did not make any major moves this week. But the setup in the US Dollar is particularly interesting. This is the first push above the base. Over the next week it will be very important to watch for the follow through. Gold was particularly weak this week, but the gold stocks moved higher today even when Gold pulled back. Keep your antenna watching the action in Gold. Notice the volume soars on up days and goes very quiet on down days. That is a bullish scenario. Gold moved down 0.5 % today. Below is the Gold miner ETF GDX. It closed Read More 

Commodities Countdown

The Dollar Swing 2018-03-29 Video

by Greg Schnell

Bullish Percent Indexes are at strong buy levels Crude unchanged Natural Gas gets set for April Dollar spins back to the top of the 11 week range Currencies are vulnerable to major trend changes now Global Indexes give monthly sell signals The five Bullish Percent indexes in the videos give some great clues.    With a wild ride this week, investors are trying to solve the riddle of when the lows are in. In this weeks video, I cover off a couple of clues why this is probably a very successful entry Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Vicious Reversal In The US Dollar

by Greg Schnell

The US Dollar continues to be a tricky market to follow.  On Monday, the US Dollar gapped below support and the PPO trend line looked to be resistance. I like to use weekly charts for my indicators for long term direction as the daily indicators swing too much to indicate long term trend. For those that have been following the sideways trading range in the dollar, the weekly chart has been working us back and forth. But on Monday, everything looked lower. The full stochastics indicator continued to go lower after turning down the week before. The chart below shows Monday's Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Precious Metals Stocks Avoid The Cliff

by Greg Schnell

A wild ride for the indexes Thursday created all sorts of issues for technicians. Failed breakouts, double tops, trend lines snapping, and a myriad of other technical terms. It was a big day with relentless selling into the close.  Hard to find bright spots in a messy slide, but there were a few. One of the areas of the market I am intrigued by is the precious metals industry group. This is an unloved, unpolished, area of the market. Silver had one piece of information this week, that moves it into the so unloved camp, there is no one on the other side. Commodity buyers like offside Read More 

Commodities Countdown

The Indexes Are Tricky Here

by Greg Schnell

Last week the Russell 2000 gave off some very important clues that the markets were ready to break. While sometimes they rally from these levels, the actual setup can make technicians more aware of the keen balance the market is currently in. While no one needs to be too quick to call a market top or a bear market, a technician can at least be aware when the setup is there for more downside. Some of those conditions could be Net New Highs which I use a lot. Arthur Hill's work uses Advance-Decline lines a lot. I also use Bullish Percent Indexes and the percent of stocks above the 200 Daily Read More 

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