Commodities Countdown

New Year New Ideas - Webinar Skim 2017-01-05

One of the amazing parts about the market is how something can run for an entire year and then be off the table for the next year. Nike topped out in November 2015 and finished 2016 as one of the worst Dow stocks. With horrific retail sales numbers from some of the stores, Visa goes ballistic, up 4% in three trading days. Natural Gas goes ballastic for 2016 and drops huge on the first day of the year. So the work continues to find the big movers of 2017 and we've only got 51 weeks to get going. 

Some of the oil companies are sitting on year long trends. An example would be Apache who found a massive 3 Billion barrels of oil this past year in one of the largest "on-land" rather than offshore finds.

Oil is in the middle of an outside week. The problem here is the oil companies have not followed or led oil higher to the $55 level on the $WTIC chart. Some caution is required on the Oil Co's here.

Here is the USO chart showing Friday's trading level at time of writing. Unchanged from Year end.

Gold has turned up, since the 24th of December. Now the hard part begins, will it hold the gains?

There was a lot of big picture thinking for the 2017 year for Commodities in general like basic materials. There are some compelling charts on the webinar that will give you a new sense of interest in the commodity trade for 2017. Here is a link to the quickly paced webinar! Commodities Countdown 2017-01-05.

Commodities Countdown LIVE! with Greg Schnell - 2017-01-05 17:00 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo.

Probably the most compelling part of the story might be the change in the $USD and some of the ramifications around that. Whether it is short term or starting to play out in the bigger picture is what we have to watch for. Check out the webinar this weekend. I think you'll find the webinar makes a strong case for staying tuned into the Commodities Countdown webinar this year!


I have two upcoming special event webinars in January. On top of the regular ones, I will be doing two more this month. One is with Tom Bowley on Saturday, January 14th at 11 AM ET. This will be exclusive to StockCharts subscribers. This webinar will be jam packed and probably hit the limit in terms of number of registrants of our GotoWebinar plan. I strongly encourage you to enroll early! Tom Bowley and Greg Schnell 2017 Market Look.

Secondly, I will be kicking off the Saturday morning presentations at Chart Summit 2017 on January 28th, 2017. This is a free two day webinar only event organized by my good friend JC Parets at AllStarCharts.com and the MTA (Market Technicians Association). Please use this registration link to register! Chart Summit 2017 This will be a massive -free- online charting event. The speaker list is truly exciting including Arthur Hill of StockCharts.com as well! 18 Speakers! Please use this registration link to register! Chart Summit 2017


If these Commodity Countdown articles have tweaked your interest, thank you for taking the time to follow my work. StockCharts finished the year with more members than ever before. Thousands of market watchers find huge value in StockCharts.com every day. We would be honoured to be part of your market review team. Allow me to take a moment to share some of our efforts to help you analyze the market. 

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I feature a Commodities Countdown article every week on the Commodities Countdown blog and webinar series. If you would like to stay tuned into Commodities and try to follow my thoughts on the macro concepts for the equities, currencies and bonds, please join me. You can subscribe at the bottom of this Commodities Countdown blog. You can register for the webinar on the home page of StockCharts each week. I also keep changing a small chartlist that has some important charts for Commodity investors. You can access that here all year long. If you liked my success in 2016, perhaps we can keep it going in 2017. I also keeps a blog for Canadian investors as well. That blog has been running for 5 years. The Canadian Technician Blog

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Specifically for members, our top three authors are member only. John Murphy has written a market message for 16 years which is a StockCharts favorite. Martin Pring posts an article a week and a webinar that is filled with his unique indicators available on StockCharts. Arthur Hill is a fantastic author who has some of the most detailed work for trend following. Look inside our pricing module today.

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We also have Gatis Roze, Greg Morris and Bruce Fraser who share their years of experience. There is also a Top Advisors Corner with numerous authors putting forward ideas for you. Hopefully this broad diverse view of the markets helps you understand why our Technical Analysis team is so compelling.Look inside our pricing module today.

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Good trading,
Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA.

 
 

$USD Chart - Treasure Map For 2017?

2016 marked a breakout on the $USD above a 2 year consolidation. But the big picture on the $USD is probably the most important at this level at this time of year. Lets walk through some charts. 

On the chart below, which is monthly, there are a lot of $USD reversals in direction around the first of the year.

1985, 1988, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994,1995,1997,1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2016 all have a reversal within a few weeks either side of the new year.  21 out of 32 years is a high expectancy.

Another factor for the Dollar is the current set up is eerily reminiscent of the 1999 mid year top around 104.50 where the blue arrow is. After working hard to get through the 100 level, the dollar pulled back in late 1998. Then it surged up, breaking out by a couple of cents above the 102 level, only to roll over, go back and retest the support on the breakout. The dollar fell almost 7 points before reversing at 97 and making a spectacular 2-year run to 121. As you can see, the charts are set up extremely similar from 1987-1997 and 2004 to 2014. Even the price action on the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) is quite similar. So if the $USD were to pull back 5 - 7 points to get back under the 100 and check for support one more time, this would still keep the same set up intact. All that to suggest, we may have seen this movie in the dollar before.

Continue reading "$USD Chart - Treasure Map For 2017?" »

The Markets Need To Digest A Soaring US Dollar - Webinar Skim 2016-12-15

Well, the US Dollar continued it's assault on new highs. But more importantly, it is soaring relative to all the other currencies in the Dollar Index. I'll have more on that in a bit, but the market is starting to look a little stretched.  The one thing that is concerning is how far we have moved away from the moving averages.

Continue reading "The Markets Need To Digest A Soaring US Dollar - Webinar Skim 2016-12-15" »

Gold Gets Tricky

Gold has been working its way lower since July. Gold miners have been dropping since August. Currently the ratio of the Miners to the Precious Metal is clearly in a downtrend that is being tested today.

Continue reading "Gold Gets Tricky" »

When Oil And Natural Gas Soar - Webinar Skim 2016-12-01

With all of the news from OPEC, Crude Oil ($WTIC) had a massive move this week. This is the highest weekly close since July 2015. The 12% move definitely got everyone's attention. The real debate for December is whether or not it can hold the breakout and keep moving up to $60. The volume was also very solid. That sort of confirmation is very bullish.

Continue reading "When Oil And Natural Gas Soar - Webinar Skim 2016-12-01" »

The Dollar Bets, Oil Checks, Gold Folds - Webinar Skim 2016-11-24

This week was a wild week for the Dollar ($USD). It tested 102 but closed the week just slightly higher. However, the breakout last week was confirmed with this week closing higher so the breakout is valid.

I usually look for the $USD to weaken around month end, so this will be interesting to see how it all plays out. If you look at the candles going back to the beginning of 2016, 8 months out of 10 sold off in the last week or the first week of the month. I mention it because the dollar may need to rest a little bit but I still think the big bull is intact.

Continue reading "The Dollar Bets, Oil Checks, Gold Folds - Webinar Skim 2016-11-24" »

The US Dollar ($USD) Head Wind Just Got Stiffer - Webinar 2016-11-17

The US Dollar ($USD) roared to new heights today. It closed at a 13 year high with a rapid surge in the last few weeks.

There is an even larger trend at play as well. If you rest the red trend line on the recent highs, the $USD is breaking out relative to the major previous peak using the 2011-2002 highs as well. I have also shown a dotted line connecting the 1985 peak with the 2002 peak that shows the recent 2-year consolidation taking place above the orange trend line. Which ever trend a chartist uses, the $USD is making a meaningful trend change. Whether it is the horizontal breakout going back thirteen years in Chart 1, the dotted trend line off the 1985 highs or the more shallow trendline including the 2015 highs, the move in the $USD will be one of the biggest factors in the investor landscape for 2017.

For commodity investors, the $USD represents a major headwind. After recently breaking below the 40 year lows, Commodities have struggled to make a meaningful bounce off of these levels. Currently the $USD is slightly above the horizontal level and the 40 Week MA as shown in the legend but the gap is marginal at best. A US Dollar headwind suggests this may mark the start of a meaningful turn down in Commodity price levels below what we have seen previously in our investing lifetimes.

The webinar covered off some alternative ideas for investing if Commodities have a headwind. You can watch the recording by opening this link. Commodities Countdown 2016-11-17. Alternatively, I have included it in the article for your viewing convenience.

Commodities Countdown LIVE! with Greg Schnell - 2016-11-17 17:00 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo.

Lastly, there are some big events coming up that make this a particularly important place in the market timeline. We have Options Expiration tomorrow which has marked some meaningful turning points. We also have the US Thanksgiving next week marking low trading volumes throughout the week and Thursday/ Friday have the focus elsewhere. We also have the OPEC meeting next week which adds volatility more than anything. The Italian Vote regarding the EU is December 4th and then the Fed meets for the December meeting where a rate hike is expected. Immediately following the meeting is the December quadruple witching day for Options. On Tuesday I laid out one of my recent global market reviews. The Canadian Technician Webinar 2016-11-15. My webinars are to help investors see some of the macro trends as well as the market rotation. Hopefully they help in formulating some ideas for 2017.

As I mentioned above, the webinar covered off some brighter areas than the commodities currently and I would encourage you to let it play if you are looking for themes. I tried to build some optimism with better investment strategies than going long commodities in the face of a rising dollar. You can always forward these articles on to friends and family. 

I would like to take this opportunity to wish all of our US readers a happy, warm, safe holiday next week. As many of you start travelling for the Thanksgiving weekend, best wishes for a great holiday.

Good trading,
Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA.