Commodities Countdown

Ever Been Hit With A Gold Brick?

Investing in Gold miners (GDX) has been a big winner this year. So far 150% in a non-leveraged ETF. But it is always good to keep evaluating the trend. We can look at the pluses and minuses on the Gold trade currently. Let us roll through the different charts.

First of all, on GDX, the SCTR has been glued to the top. We can see it looks exceptional. In the next pane is the relative strength compared to the $SPX. The trend is still up, but recently the GDX and the $SPX have been moving sideways for a month as the early July and Early August peaks are at the same levels. 

The price panel shows a defined uptrend that made a higher high this morning and closed back in the range. The MACD is going to break either trend line shortly. For the volume, I want to zoom in on the last 6 months.

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Commodities Sit On A Barbed-Wire Fence - Webinar Skim 20160804

My webinar this week spent some time on Commodity-Country-Currencies. The underlying theme for the webinar was the long term chart of the $CRB and the importance of breaking out of a range that I would define as the deflationary range. The red line shows support for 40 years. 

In the depths of the commodity drop into January, the market continued to fall below this historic support level into an area I would define as deflationary. Is this trend changing for the long term? Looking at the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) below, this is an extreme percentage drop. Now it has crossed the signal line and is turning back up. But the real important area of the chart, the red line, continues to be a hurdle. In the zoom panel, we can see July closed back below the red line. The month of August will be very important. Closing back below the red line for a second consecutive month would suggest bigger problems in Commodityville as the long-term trend seems broken. On the chart, we can see the 10 Month MA in green is trying to support the index. So far we have 4 consecutive months of closes above the 10 Month MA. While commodities may ebb and flow, the real question is: What do we need to see to be long term bullish on Commodities?

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Sitting In A European Bank Waiting Room - Webinar Skim 2016-07-21

It's been a month since the Brexit storm rolled through the world's charts. Amazingly, it turned out to be one of the best times to put money to work. One of the blogs I wrote shortly after the Brexit event covered off the global banking charts. When Should You Think About Protecting Your Portfolio ...Ideas Inside. In the concluding paragraph, I said this was not a reason to sell everything. It was a reason to make sure you were in the best-performing stocks. Now we sit having a massive bounce off the lows that broke out charts globally to all-time highs, new 52 week highs, or above down-sloping trend lines.

So what's next? We can see on the ETF chart for European Financials (EUFN) that the stocks dropped 24% and then bounced almost 13%. I have put the Fibonacci retracement levels from the night before Brexit to the lows on the chart. The European banks have rallied back up about 38.2% of the Brexit drop. Some of the European banks are asking for the European Central Bank to recapitalize the European banks. For that, we need to turn to Mario Draghi.

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Where Is Crude Oil ($WTIC) Headed?

Crude Oil ($WTIC) continues to drift down. After pushing up near $50 in mid-May, it took 3 weeks to finally break through, surging to $51. That breakout failed to hold and we have been grinding lower since the June 9th closing high. The numerous tests of the blue channel line have worked us up against the red downtrend. We are at a decision point. Some technically important levels have built up.

  • The 200 DMA is at $41.
  • Looking left, the market spent two months bouncing off the $43 level.
  • The $44.42 level is our low since the June top.
  • A break through the red downtrend line to the topside puts the 50 DMA in play at $48.
  • The horizontal resistance sits at $50. 

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Commodities Near Two Week Lows - Webinar Skim 2016-07-14 - New Global Bull Market?

The commodities have pulled back gently this week near two-week lows. In the face of the commodities pulling back, global markets have rallied. Financials have rallied globally and JPM fuelled a broad bank rally. You can click here to watch the webinar where I covered off the potential for a bull market globally.

Commodities Countdown LIVE! with Greg Schnell - 2016-07-14 17:00 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo.

Webinar // $CRB Commodities 0:00 // Gold & Gold Miners 10:00 // Industrial Metals 13:30 // GSCI 16:00 // Breadth 19:00 // Bonds 27:00 // Transports 30:00 // Autos 33:00 // Global Checkup 37:00 // Industrial Stocks 48:00 // Q & A 50:00 //

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Do You Think Gold Miners Have Made Exceptional Moves?

Since March, Gold has performed in line with the $SPX. However, Gold miners have continued to run, long past the strength in Gold. To put this in perspective, the price of Gold shown by the Gold tracking ETF (GLD), has moved 29.7 % and the Gold miners have run 144.7 %. To watch the Gold Miners ETF (GDX), which is an average of sorts, move 144% in 7 months, has been amazing. 

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What A Difference A Week Makes - Webinar Skim 2016-07-07

This week was a little hard on the commodities. In general, almost everything went down with the exception of Gold and Silver. I outlined areas of support for Crude Oil around $41. Corn and Wheat had awful weeks, and Soybeans is looking toppy. The big story this week are the bonds, and the webinar talked a lot about the setup for the second half of the year.

Commodities Countdown LIVE! with Greg Schnell - 2016-07-07 17:00 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo.

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Commodities Roar - Webinar Skim 2016-06-30

Commodities had an exciting week, trading wildly on the swings from Brexit. Natural Gas, Gold and Silver surged higher. Oil dripped lower and bounced back into the 6-week range. Coffee and sugar continued to perform well.

Natural Gas broke above the base at $7 on the UNG chart a month ago. Now it has moved above the 200 DMA and maintains a nice continuous uptrend.

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