# Dancing with the Trend

About the author: has been a technical market analyst for over 40 years and is the author of several popular financial analysis books including Candlestick Charting Explained, Investing with the Trend and The Complete Guide to Market Breadth Indicators. Before retiring, he served as the Chief Technical Analyst and Chairman of the Investment Committee for a technical-based money management company with over \$5.5 billion under management. Greg has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, and Bloomberg Television and has also spoken at numerous financial conferences around the world.

## Latest Posts

Dancing with the Trend

by Greg Morris

I’m on record in my book, “Investing with the Trend,” and probably in this blog of stating that Financial Academia is nothing more than the marketing department for Wall Street.  When I do presentations about technical analysis and / or money management, I always begin with this slide: Slide A That is usually an attention getter.  I state that this formula is what Academia wants you to think modern finance is about.  I’ll get back to that at the end of the article. My formal education was in aerospace engineering.  Read More

Dancing with the Trend

# Filtering the Noise III

by Greg Morris

First of all, I must apologize for my lack of creativity for these article titles.  The previous two “Filtering the Noise” and “Filtering the Noise II” were about moving averages and suggesting a better way to use a relationship between two moving averages, similar to the ubiquitous MACD.  In this creatively named article I will attempt to explain my process for finding the shorter-term average using detrending.  If you recall from the previous articles, once you have the shorter-term average, you then know the longer term one and the signal value.  Instead of rewriting Read More

Dancing with the Trend

# Filtering the Noise II

by Greg Morris

The first article of Filtering the Noise dealt with smoothing the data with moving averages.  Here I want to discuss a really popular concept popularized by an indicator called Moving Average Convergence Divergence or MACD.  MACD is a concept using two exponential averages developed by Gerald Appel. It was originally developed as the difference between the 12 and 26 day exponential averages; the same as a moving average crossover system with the periods of the two averages being 12 and 26. The resulting difference, called the MACD line, is then smoothed with a nine-day Read More

Dancing with the Trend

# Filtering the Noise

by Greg Morris

I have mentioned many times I that I basically only work with daily market data.  I do not have the personality to deal with intraday data and weekly data is only good for long term use.   I do have a few weekly data indicators that I use as overlays to my trend model, but the bulk of then are daily.  One of the concepts I think you must deal with when using daily data is to come up with a method that removes the noise.  Noise in this instance is very short term fluctuations in price. One of the most popular is the moving average; and it comes in many Read More

Dancing with the Trend

# My 100th Blog Article

by Greg Morris

This is funny. A few articles ago I commented on the foolishness of the media’s focus on Dow 20,000 and now I’m focusing on my 100th blog article.  Is that being a hypocrite or what?  I have been racking my feeble brain trying to think of an appropriate topic for this milestone.  Maybe I'll start with a little history. When I got involved in money management in the 1990s with MurphyMorris Money Management, Inc.; and then later with PMFM (now Stadion) in 2004, I found myself in front of advisors at the large wire houses and insurance companies.  Read More

Dancing with the Trend

# Wall of Worry

by Greg Morris

The “Wall of Worry” has been used for many decades to identify the period of time in the latter stages of a bullish run in the stock market, when all the naysayers start talking about a top.  I have witnessed this often.  As the bull ages, many start to think they can “call the top.”  The financial media parades expert after expert showing economic or political situations in which they believe is coincident with a market top.  First of all, anyone who has ever looked at a chart knows that the topping process, also called distribution (more on that later), is a really Read More

Dancing with the Trend

# Article Summaries - 11-2016 to 2-2017

by Greg Morris

Periodically I write an article that reviews the past few months of articles.  Why on Earth would I do this?  Primarily for two reasons.  One is that many new readers are involved and often they do not go back and look at the past articles.  Two is that my articles are rarely tied to anything that is happening in the markets.  Generally, they are about experiences I have had as a technical analyst for almost 45 years; the good, the bad, and the ugly. Note: Click on the title of the article to go to the article. Read More

Dancing with the Trend

# The Reign of Error

by Greg Morris

In 1987 a book was written, entitled “The Great Depression of 1990,” by Dr. Ravi Batra, an SMU professor of economics.  Sadly, I bought and read that book back then.  Batra was claimed as one of the great theorists in the world and ranked third in a group of 46 superstars selected from all economists in American and Canadian universities by the learned journal Economic Inquiry (October 1978). The foreword was written by world-renowned economist Lester Thurow, who said The Great Depression of 1990 is crucial reading for everyone who hopes to survive and prosper in the coming Read More

Dancing with the Trend

# 0100111000100000

by Greg Morris

There are 10 types of people in this world, those who understand binary and those who do not.  Yes, the title is binary for 20,000.  I knew the title of this article would get your attention.  The financial media is possessed with round numbers more than I can remember.   Back in the 70s, the Dow Industrials bounced off (resistance) of 1000 many times and it was 1983 (10+ years) before it finally broke through on the upside like a homesick angel.  I’m not sure but I think intraday in 1966 it bumped up against 1000 also, but did not close there.  In the Read More

Dancing with the Trend

# Capitalization

by Greg Morris

This will not be about punctuation.  Have you ever wondered why most of the media focuses on the Dow Jones Industrial Index?  Some would say it isn’t a good measure of the overall market, including me?  Yet, it does a reasonable job of representing the overall market.  Same goes for the S&P 500 Index.  Let me explain. I used a great deal of stock market data in my books, primarily the daily series for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500.  Reliable data is very important for proper analysis.  I have seen references to stock Read More