DecisionPoint

October 2014

DecisionPoint

Six-Month Seasonality Turns Favorable

by Erin Swenlin

With the end of October, which is sometimes referred to as "Black October", six-month seasonality switches from Bearish to Bullish. You'll find our seasonality table in the DP Reports blog on the DP Alert Daily Report. You'll see the section extracted below: This is considered "Intermediate-Term Seasonality". In the report above you will also note that we track "Short-Term Seasonality" which just turned favorable on 10/30. Today our intermediate-term and long-term Trend Model switched from a Neutral to a BUY signal. I also noted in Read More 

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Announcing the NEW "DP Weekly Update"!

by Erin Swenlin

For those of you who don't know, I publish a DP Daily Update in the DP Reports blog. Everyday I analyze the same charts to give you continuity and the opportunity to truly understand our premier market indicators. Along with the S&P 500, I review 'the big four': the dollar, gold, oil and bonds. It is a concise review that takes only a few minutes to read. So on Wednesday's, I will publish the "DP Weekly Update". If you like it, you can access the "DP Daily Update" in the DP Reports blog which is available to StockCharts members. If you haven't already, sign up for email Read More 

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Bullish Flags are Waving

by Erin Swenlin

Today I ran my regular scan to find stocks or ETFs that are rising on fresh momentum. (The scan is listed at the bottom of this blog article.) The results were very interesting as nearly half of the charts showed bullish flag formations. These formations are short-term continuation patterns that can result in significant price moves once executed. It isn't surprising there were plenty of flag formations out there given the recent market action; that is, a sharp rally higher and then a three day pause or consolidation of the move. Once a flag formation executes, the minimum price Read More 

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DP Chart Gallery - Indicators that are Talking

by Erin Swenlin

I actually review most of the charts in the DP Chart Gallery for my DecisionPoint Daily Update everyday, but there are a few that I don't often survey. With the market correcting, bottoming and today, pausing, I wanted to see all of what we have in the Chart Gallery and the story the charts are telling. I'm glad I did as there are definitely some interesting configurations on many of the indicator charts. I'll examine four right now, but I highly recommend you go take a look at the entire Gallery to give you an even more complete picture. The main theme of all of Read More 

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Getting a Jump on Apple

by Erin Swenlin

Apple, Inc. (AAPL) gets plenty of press and so I debated even bringing it up. However, they reported earnings after the bell and beat expectations. Despite weak iPad sales, the huge iPhone 6 and Mac sales have investors excited. Last I'd heard it was up over 1% in after hours trading. I decided I wanted a look at it to see where it stands technically. The daily chart looks fairly good. Let's look at the left side of the chart. I noticed that the last time Apple began a long rally, three technical indicators made important moves. The DecisionPoint Price Momentum Oscillator Read More 

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Longer-Term Indicators Finally Moving Deeper

by Carl Swenlin

We have some longer-term indicators that we like because they are derived from price movement, rather than breadth or volume. They have a finite range (0-100) and reflect the percentage of index component stocks in a particular status. For almost two years they have stayed at unusually high levels, never becoming really oversold, and this was quite abnormal. Currently, the market is engaged in a somewhat normal correction (only -6.9% so far), and the internals, as reflected by these indicators, are showing the associated internal stress. Percent of Stocks Read More 

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GOLD: Bouncing Off Support

by Carl Swenlin

In our article on September 23 we postulated that gold seemed to be setting up for a triple bottom, but it was too soon to tell for sure. As of this week gold has reached the level of support drawn from the two previous bottoms, and it has bounced off that support. It is not yet a robust bounce, but it is at least a first small sign that a long-term bottom may be forming. Let me first acknowledge that Erin's article of yesterday focused on a similar possibility in the chart of a gold miner stocks ETF. While there is often a similarity between the charts of the metal and the mining stocks Read More 

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Gold Miners Rally! Is This The Bottom?

by Erin Swenlin

I noticed on today's DP ETF Tracker Report, where ETFs are sorted by percent change, that Gold Miners hit it big today. Gold Miner ETFs and stocks, while tied to gold, will not necessarily trade and travel with gold prices. However, as of late they have been dropping just like gold. I was surprised to see that both ETFs I looked at had recently tested support near or at all-time lows. Can they go lower? Or are they ready for a turnaround? Let's take a look. I'm going to start with iShares Gold Miners ETF, RING (I love that symbol!). On the Read More 

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Ebola Stocks

by Erin Swenlin

Today on Fox Business News channel, the panel of "Making Money" discussed the biotech stocks that are the makers or researchers for ebola virus pharmaceuticals. I thought it would be interesting to analyze the charts since their discussion was primarily based on fundamentals. All of these stocks have had a very wild ride since the first confirmed case of Ebola hit the United States. Interestingly, although they have had similar whipsaw moves this past week, their daily charts are unique. First is BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX). This stock was in a steep declining trend and it was on a Read More 

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PMO Analysis Identifies Short-Term Extremely Oversold Conditions

by Erin Swenlin

The Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) is a measure of internal strength and momentum. You can read more about the PMO in ChartSchool. Every stock, index, ETF, mutual fund has a PMO value each day. It can be rising or falling, have a crossover BUY signal (or not) generated by the PMO crossing above its 10-EMA, and finally, it can have a value above or below zero. We calculate PMO Analysis charts based on those criteria. Note that you can only generate a PMO Analysis chart for an index or sector ETF because is comprised of a group of stocks. Since we are looking at percentages, we calculate Read More