DecisionPoint

November 2015

DecisionPoint

$SPX: Volume and Momentum Issues

by Carl Swenlin

When performing index analysis, I normally prefer to use the SPDR because that is the trading vehicle, as well as a "total return" view of the index. In this case we are looking at on-balance volume (OBV), and I wanted to be sure we were considering all the volume associated with the index, not just the volume of the SPDR. As the rally from the November low progressed, I noticed that the OBV was moving sideways rather than moving up to confirm the rally. I was a little wary of this analysis because volume tends to be low during a holiday week; however, except for the last two Read More 

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Mid-Caps and Small-Caps Trigger PMO Crossover BUY Signals

by Erin Swenlin

Interestingly, small- and mid caps received Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) crossover BUY signals before the large cap indexes. In last weekend's ChartWatchers article I pointed out how all of the major indexes had little to no momentum during this rally. The PMO readings had been flat throughout the current rally and not had positive crossover BUY signals. If you check out the DP Chart Gallery, you'll see that all of the four major indexes are still on PMO crossover SELL signals in the short term. They are nearing positive crossovers; their PMOs are all rising but very very Read More 

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Some Problems with Nike

by Carl Swenlin

After a short correction last week, Nike (NKE) reversed course this week and charged upward, nearly reaching new, all-time highs. With such positive price action, what could be wrong? For one thing, on the monthly chart we can see that NKE is in a parabolic up move, and price is nearly vertical. Parabolics usually end in tears when price finally collapses, but, of course, there is no way of knowing exactly when that will happen. On the weekly chart the PMO is very overbought. On the daily chart we can see that Read More 

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Waiting on the Short-Term Indicators

by Erin Swenlin

After the recent bounce off of the September high for the SPY, its short-term indicators finally began to move out of oversold territory. They are only neutral now. I'm looking for these indicators to move into overbought territory. Somewhat overbought territory is fine as this rally appears to be petering out already. It is the short-term indicators that are keeping me short-term bullish right now. Intermediate-term indicators are neutral but falling (check out the chart in the DP Chart Gallery), so I remain intermediate-term/long-term bearish. Read More 

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Mechanical Signal Analysis

by Carl Swenlin

At DecisionPoint we track the status of short-term and long-term mechanical signals so that we can get an idea of the level of participation in each of those time frames. The chart below shows the shorter-term Percentage of PMO Crossover BUY Signals as well as the longer-term Percent Buy Index (PBI) for the stocks in the S&P 500 Index. (The PBI is based upon our Price Momentum Model.) We can see that the PMO model is a lot more active and that it ranges between extremes of overbought and oversold conditions fairly regularly. Also, when the indicator Read More 

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FOUR NEW Short-Term PMO SELL Signals on DP Scoreboards!

by Erin Swenlin

Today the DecisionPoint Scoreboards from our DecisionPoint Chart Gallery lit up with four new Short-Term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL signals. I don't think any of us are too surprised (especially those who attended my webinar yesterday!) that so many PMO crossovers occurred on the major indexes. The current pullback not only caused the PMOs to top, but it has yanked the PMOs below their signal lines. Interestingly, this week already has seen two new Long-Term  BUY signals arrive ($SPX and $OEX). So what does it mean if the PMO SELL signals appear at the same time as new LTTM Read More 

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Top Four DecisionPoint Charts to Watch

by Erin Swenlin

I am repeatedly asked what are the most important DecisionPoint charts to watch for determining trend reversals or how to use the DecisionPoint indicators for confirmations. I'll preface this article by reminding everyone that all indicators and trend following models have limitations, but the charts below are the ones I look at everyday before writing my blogs. These charts are available in our free DecisionPoint ChartPacks or you can review the DecisionPoint Chart Gallery for the four indexes covered (or just S&P 500 charts for non-members). For more information on Read More 

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$GOLD Back to SELL Signal

by Carl Swenlin

About a month ago $GOLD went on an IT Trend Model BUY signal, and I had this to say about it: The overall picture for $GOLD is bearish but showing improvement. The current BUY signal may offer some opportunities on the long side, and may even prove to be a long-term winner; however, my impression is that the conditions underlying this new BUY signal are far from robust. Also, $GOLD is in a bear market (the 50EMA is below the 200EMA), so odds are against a strong up move. Long positions should be stamped "Handle With Care." On Friday the $GOLD 20EMA crossed down through the 50EMA, and Read More 

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S&P 100 Produces New Long-Term BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

The DecisionPoint Scoreboard Summary below had an important change today. The S&P 100 (OEX) just received a new Long-Term Trend Model BUY signal. This signal generated when the 50-EMA crossed back above the 200-EMA. This signal is very important as it moves the OEX from a "bear market" to a "bull market". What is the significance? When a stock or index or ETF is in a "bull market" we should expect more bullish outcomes than bearish ones.  Below is a long-term daily chart of the OEX that focuses in on just the 50/200-EMA Read More 

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SPY Shifts Gears - LTTM BUY Implies New Bull Market Phase

by Erin Swenlin

Many of you have been watching the DP Scoreboards in the DecisionPoint Chart Gallery (SPX, OEX, NDX and Dow). Today, the Long-Term Trend Model moved to a BUY signal on the SPY. The 50-EMA crossed above the 200-EMA, moving it from a bear market environment back into a bull market environment. This distinction is important as it changes the bias from bearish to bullish. The Scoreboard for the S&P 500 did not get the same signal. Additionally, the OEX and Dow have not relinquished their Long-Term Trend Model SELL signals yet, so there is a bearish bias in most Read More 

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Market on the Verge of Something

by Carl Swenlin

Market on the verge of what? That is the question. The 50EMA is very close to crossing up through the 200EMA, which would change the long-term status from bearish to bullish. And SPY is only about 2.5% away from making new highs. What could go wrong? Some other things that are right with this chart: After a nasty August and September, SPY rallied +12% off the September low. In the process it broke through the double bottom confirmation line drawn across the September price top, which gives us a minimum upside target of 217 (measured from the September low). Shortly after that SPY broke Read More