DecisionPoint

September 2016

DecisionPoint

TLT Illustrates the Profitable Marriage of the PMO and the SCTR

by Erin Swenlin

I loved ChartCon 2016 for many reasons, chief among them was education--the education of you and me. Our education is inevitable when you can network with or watch John Murphy, Martin Pring, Greg Morris, Arthur Hilland so on! Greg Schnell is another "tech titan" who presented at ChartCon 2016. He showed me one very uncomplicated concept. When I began applying this simple technique to my daily charts, I was honestly astounded that I hadn't figured it out myself. (Maybe I should read Greg more often!) What is the magnificent Read More 

DecisionPoint

Oversold Bounce Possible?

by Carl Swenlin

Before we ask if an oversold bounce is possible, we should ask if the market is oversold. Looking at the chart below, the PMO is just above the zero line. While that level proved to be oversold after the Brexit vote at the end of June, a more typical oversold reading is around -2.0, like it was in February. But maybe we can find another indicator that might offer some hope of a short-term bottom. The indicator I have in mind is the Percentage of PMO Crossover BUY Signals for the S&P 500 Index. The PMO generates BUY and SELL signals when it crosses up Read More 

DecisionPoint

Why I'm a ChartWatcher

by Erin Swenlin

It happened all in the same day. I was talking to my dad, Carl Swenlin exclaiming how I think I'm "chart pattern crazy". Then, I received a chart via email from one of my "DecisionPoint Report" webinar viewers. He actually sent the chart to someone else and I was copied on it. At the end of his explanation of the chart to his friend, he ended with, "Erin, I know you like charts."  This isn't about being a mathematics major in collegenot exactly. My degree is actually a Bachelor of "Arts" not "Science". I chose this pathway for two reasons. First and Read More 

DecisionPoint

SPY: Finally a Breakdown

by Carl Swenlin

Last week in my article, Two More Months of This Stuff?, I wondered if the market would continue to move in the narrow, boring two-month trading range. This week we got the answer: No. The chart below shows Friday's high-volume breakdown through the support line drawn across the lowest point of the trading range. When we zoom out for a broader context, we can see that price is approaching a rising trend line, off which we may see a bounce. However, this broader context also shows that the rising trend line is the bottom of a rising wedge pattern, the Read More 

DecisionPoint

Using DecisionPoint Timing Signals to Improve your Portfolio

by Erin Swenlin

If today's blog title is enticing, then you definitely should consider signing up for ChartCon 2016 - September 23/24. This is the title of my presentation. Obviously, I don't have the time or space to write about this in detail, but I did want to give you a taste of what you can expect to learn from the DecisionPoint presentation. The whole "point" of using DecisionPoint analysis is to keep it simple by looking at two main ingredients: Trend and Condition. Consequently, our timing models use both of these ingredients in three timeframes. I'm sure many of Read More 

DecisionPoint

A Trip to Financial Sense

by Erin Swenlin

I was recently interviewed on FinancialSense.com regarding the DecisionPoint outlook in the short, intermediate and long terms. What seemed to get the most notice was that I said that it wasn't out of the question that we could be preparing for a new bull market leg. Admittedly, intuition (built on experience of course) has been niggling me about a crash, not a new bull market. Yet, I'm seeing signs that we are lining up for a breakout and a move higher. Though the market is experiencing very overbought conditions, in a bull market they aren't necessarily a recipe for disaster. The Read More 

DecisionPoint

Two More Months of This Stuff?

by Carl Swenlin

The stock market has been trading in an extremely narrow range for almost two months. During that time I have mostly attributed this unusual action to the ambivalence of the Fed: "We really want to raise interest rates, except we really don't want to raise interest rates. Standby for immediate action." I knew that there were some election jitters factored in there, but I'm beginning to think it's more about the election than the Fed. Here's a SPY chart that emphasizes what we have been enduring of late--a 1.5% trading range, divided by two ranges of about 0.75%. Give me a break Read More