DecisionPoint

December 2016

DecisionPoint

Commodities ETF (GSG) Posts New Long-Term Trend Model BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

The iShares Commodity ETF (GSG) had a momentous BUY signal. Today, the 50-EMA crossed above the 200-EMA, reaching territory unseen since 2014. This crossover triggers a Long-Term Trend Model BUY signal that suggests GSG has entered a new bull market. A review of the charts reveals this new signal has arrived as GSG reaches a crossroad. The significance of this Long-Term BUY signal is displayed in the long-term daily chart below. The DecisionPoint analysis philosophy tells us that GSG is entering a bull market (50-EMA > 200-EMA) after Read More 

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On Alert for a Top

by Carl Swenlin

In the last few weeks the market has moved into a bullish pennant formation. In doing so it also violated the rising trend line on Thursday, but the trend line penetration has sideways, rather than sharply down, so I think the pennant carries more weight. Nevertheless, medium-term indicators are sufficiently overbought to cause me to start looking for a pause or a pullback. On the following chart there are medium-term indicators for price (PMO), breadth (ITBM), and volume (ITVM). While not at extremes, they have all topped at the overbought side of Read More 

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Utilities ETF (XLU) New Long-Term AND Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY Signals

by Erin Swenlin

I have a variety of StockCharts technical alerts set up. As a result, I receive emails whenever the entities in my alert ChartList receives new Trend Model signals and Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) crossover signals. Today I received an alert that the Utilities SPDR (XLU) triggered a new Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY signal. When I looked at the chart I realized that a new Long-Term Trend Model BUY signal had generated too. The Trend Model signals are all found on the daily chart by comparing the 5/20/50/200-EMAs. Currently on the daily Read More 

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Bears Inside the Bull

by Carl Swenlin

Last week I wrote about the ongoing bull market -- the secular bull market, beginning in 2009, and, displayed on the chart, the cyclical bull that began in February of this year. But in spite of a broad market rally, individual sectors are not uniformly bullish. Of the ten sectors making up the S&P 500 Index, three of them (30%) are still experiencing bear markets. For the purpose of this discussion, the definition of a bear market is when the 50EMA of price is below the 200EMA. It is not an infallible rule, but it is objective Read More 

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Creating a Relative Rotation Graph Using DP Market/Sector Summary Posture Table

by Erin Swenlin

I was first introduced to Relative Rotation Graphs (RRGs) at the 2014 ChartCon. I was blown away by its simplicity and visual impact. Julius de Kempenaer, a fellow blogger here at StockCharts developed RRGs. I would direct you to ChartSchool to read more about the inner workings that create these graphs. I was recently asked if I could put together an RRG chart for the members of the DecisionPoint Market/Sector Summary. After writing about sector rotation on Tuesday, this fit in very well as an expansion of that article.  Here is today's DP Read More 

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Sector Rotation Study Using the DecisionPoint Market/Sector Summary

by Erin Swenlin

If you haven't gotten John Murphy's Book, Trading with Intermarket Analysis, I highly recommend you do. He talks at length about sector rotation and how it can help you determine where the market is and could likely be headed. The graphic above shows us the economic cycle and which sectors do well and which do not during those time periods. I review the DecisionPoint Market/Sector Summary posture table daily and publish it in the DP Alert blog daily (you can find the full report in the DP Reports blog). It lists all of the major sectors and their current Trend Model signals Read More 

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SPY: Bull Market Seems Secure

by Carl Swenlin

In a post-Brexit article I wrote back in July I concluded that we were in a cyclical bull market that launched off the February lows. At the time there had been a decisive breakout above important resistance at about SPY 208.00. From there the campaign-burdened market meandered sideways until testing the support in early-November. At that point the bull market resumed, and has gained +27% since its February launch. There was another breakout in November, followed by a retest of support. Last week the rally resumed with great exuberance, showing the bull to be fully in command Read More 

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Revisit to Natural Gas (UNG) - New IT BUY Signal and Using Gaps to Set Stops

by Erin Swenlin

I recently received a tweet (follow me on Twitter @_DecisionPoint) thanking me for an updated chart of UNG on November 21st which helped him bag a 20% gain. Back in late October, I wrote an article on Natural Gas (UNG) discussing a possible bull market move to $12 if it broke out above $9.50. It broke out, but immediately dropped back below and triggered my stop. Chalking it up to false signals, I hadn't revisited the chart since Halloween. However, my readers of course did when they read the article in the archives, hence the follow-up question sent on Read More 

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SPY: Is the Trump Rally Pausing or Over?

by Carl Swenlin

 The market has rallied about +6.5% from the November low, but less than half of that can be attributed to the election results. As of the close on Tuesday, November 8, it was widely believed that Clinton would be the winner. When the opposite result emerged, the market rallied an additional +3.6%. By itself, this was not a spectacular advance, and a pullback began after Wednesday's intraday high. Is this a medium-term top, or merely a technical correction? No one knows for sure, but we are in a bull market, so we should assume outcomes will be Read More