DecisionPoint

March 2017

DecisionPoint

DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap 3/31/17

by Carl Swenlin

*** IMPORTANT NOTE: We are making some changes to our DecisionPoint blogs and webinars starting on April 1st. Click here for more details. *** The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. We have a happy coincidence with Friday also being the end of the month, so we can wrap the week and the month in this commentary. A new long-term BUY signal was generated this month when the monthly PMO crossed up Read More 

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Short-Term Trend Model/PMO Scan from 3/29 DecisionPoint Report Webinar - James River Group (JRVR) Analyzed

by Erin Swenlin

Yesterday during the DecisionPoint Report webinar I decided to run a short-term scan and run through the results with my viewers. You can find the webinar here. I promised to write a blog article with the text of the scan so that Extra members can copy and paste directly into the scanning workbench. Yesterday the scan returned seven charts. Today it returned 36 charts. SHORT-TERM TREND MODEL--PMO RISING SCAN [type = stock] AND [Daily SMA(20,Daily Volume) > 50000] and [country is US] AND[today's PMO Line(35,20,10)<today's PMO Read More 

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Net Advances-Declines Indicators Rock the Ultra-Short Term

by Erin Swenlin

The DecisionPoint universe is evolving. As many of you are aware, some of our indicators will be retired. Two of the indicators many are concerned about losing are the Climactic Volume Indicator and Participation Index. Writing a blog everyday and doing regular webinars during the week tends to keep my focus on the shorter term. In order to better dissect the short term, DecisionPoint has create an "Ultra-Short-Term" timeframe. We define the ultra-short-term timeframe as hours to a day or two. These signals have a very short shelf life. The Read More 

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DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap 3/24/17

by Carl Swenlin

*** IMPORTANT NOTE: We are making some changes to our DecisionPoint blogs and webinars starting on April 1st. Click here for more details. *** Welcome to the DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap, where I make an end-of-week assessment of the internal condition, and trend of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. There were no changes to the DecisionPoint Scoreboards today, but we did see some short-term softening earlier this week with three new NEUTRAL signals. STOCKS: Based upon a 11/15/2016 Read More 

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AAPL: Correction Due

by Carl Swenlin

Apple (AAPL) has rallied +60% from its May 2016 low, which was also the the low for the previous bear market for AAPL. The price advance for the last month-and-a-half has been pretty vigorous, but the PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) has topped and crossed down through its signal line, so a correction seems likely. As usual, I like to look at a longer-term chart to enhance my perspective. In the middle of the three-year chart below we can see the previous AAPL bear market that lasted from mid-2015 to mid-2016. I have highlighted four previous bull market corrections so we can Read More 

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Investors Feeling Bearish = Good for the Market

by Erin Swenlin

I thought this "yin yang" symbol was actually a nice metaphor for sentiment. When we look at the sentiment numbers on a chart they are expressed as a percentage. For example, 31% are bullish, 39% are bearish, and the rest fall into the neutral category. It's a fixed space where bulls and bears move together as a part of the whole, balancing each other out. When sentiment moves to one extreme it is generally a warning sign that the market will be moving in the opposite direction. Why would it not move in the direction everyone is currently agreeing Read More 

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Chart Spotlight on Pfizer, Inc. (PFE)

by Erin Swenlin

Chart Spotlights will be a regular addition to the DecisionPoint blog and have already been incorporated into the DecisionPoint Report webinars. The purpose of the Chart Spotlight is not to recommend a particular stock, it is a learning exercise. Many readers and viewers want to understand how to pull up a chart and find the most important characteristics for making their own investment decisions. There are three things I analyze when I see a daily chart cold. First is to simply annotate support and resistance areas and/or identify any visible chart patterns. We Read More 

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SPY: Short-Term Indicators Positive

by Carl Swenlin

Trying to attribute every market up or down tick to news/fundamental events is a fool's errand, but every once in a while the connection between seems pretty obvious. The day after President Trump's address to congress, the market gapped up in response; however, it immediately began a pullback over several days, which filled the gap and then some. Another issue after the up gap was that price was extended +10% above the 200EMA, a distance that begged for some downside relief. Such corrective action began the following day, and ended on Thursday. On Friday price broke above the short-term Read More 

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New NDX PMO SELL Signal Likely the First of Many

by Erin Swenlin

Many of you may have noticed yesterday's DecisionPoint Alert blog headline, "New PMO SELL Signal for the NDX". I had thought we'd make it to DP Scoreboards with all BUY signals, but the NDX refused to give up the Long-Term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL signal on the monthly chart yet again. Below are the DP Scoreboards. You'll find these in the DP Chart Galleries, in the DP LIVE Shared ChartList or at the top of the daily DP Alert blog articles. Below are the NDX Daily and Monthly charts and then I'll show you the Read More 

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GOLD: Slight Breakdown

by Carl Swenlin

On Friday gold broke below the rising trend line that forms the bottom of a rising wedge pattern. A breakdown was expected because that is the normal and highly reliable resolution of most rising wedge patterns. The minimum downside target is 1180, but downside estimates for rising wedge patterns are highly unreliable, so we'll need to be alert as price is approaching the next level of support at 1220. Gold entered a bear market in November when the 50EMA crossed down through the 200EMA (long-term SELL signal), but, as price rebounded from the December Read More 

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Energy SPDR Showing No Improvement - XLE Reaching a Decision Point

by Erin Swenlin

Every Wednesday and Friday, I review the DecisionPoint Market/Sector Summary with my webinar viewers. It is actually only one table that is taken from the full Market/Sector Summary found in the "DP Reports" blog. This table shows us the DecisionPoint Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) "posture" for the major indexes and sectors. Green shading is an ITTM BUY signal, red shading are ITTM SELL signals and no color is a Neutral signal. You'll note on the table that there are no ITTM SELL signals. There actually haven't Read More