DecisionPoint

April 2017

DecisionPoint

DecisionPoint Weekly/Monthly Wrap -- Seasonality Turning Bearish

by Carl Swenlin

Last week I wrote: "My posture is to look for an up move next week, and as last week, a daily PMO bottom will be the first, if not infallible, clue that the market is done correcting. If an upside breakout follows, I will believe it." As it turned out, we got the breakout and PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) bottom on Monday. There was nice follow through on Tuesday, but overhead resistance drawn from the March all-time high put a stop to forward progress. Let's dig into the technicals and see what next week may have in store. The DecisionPoint Read More 

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DP Alert: Market Pausing - Calm Before the Storm?

by Erin Swenlin

The short term remains bullish in terms of the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. The long term also is showing all bullish BUY signals. Momentum looks to be a problem in the intermediate term. The SELL signals on all but the NDX come from the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) on the weekly chart. You can go look at them with annotations in the DP LIVE shared ChartList right here.  The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad Read More 

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S&P 100 Joins the Gang with a New PMO BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

The DecisionPoint Scoreboards have been flipping out! I mean the signals are flipping quickly on all of the Boards! I wrote about the five signal changes we got yesterday in the DP Alert article here. The short term picture is very bullish with all four major indexes showing "green". The long-term picture is also very favorable. Momentum in the intermediate term is still declining (you can view the IT PMO on the weekly charts in the DP LIVE shared ChartList here). The original breakaway gap on Monday was impressive. I think the follow-through gap up was Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: New Signals on DP Scoreboards - Market Follows-Through on Rally

by Erin Swenlin

We already saw some shake up on the DP Scoreboards on Friday with the new intermediate-term PMO SELL signals on all but the NDX. With the recent rally, we are now seeing the Scoreboards flip back to bullish in the short term. The S&P 100 is a hair away from producing its PMO BUY signal. I've included the charts below the Scoreboards. You'll note the breakouts on all of the charts. Price is about ready to test all-time highs on all of these indexes. Read More 

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Three New IT PMO SELL Signals on DecisionPoint Scoreboards!

by Erin Swenlin

We had three new signal changes hit the DecisionPoint Scoreboards on Friday (4/21). When I reviewed the weekly charts on Friday, I noted that the Price Momentum Oscillators (PMOs) had finally crossed below their signal lines on all but the NDX (which retains its current BUY signal). One positive to note on all of these charts is that today's strong rally has already begun to pull at the weekly PMOs causing some deceleration. The margin is thin between the PMOs and their signal lines, so a sustained rally this week could conceivably whipsaw these PMOs back into Read More 

DecisionPoint

DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap 4/21/2017 -- Correction Over?

by Carl Swenlin

Last week I wrote, "The first necessary signal that the correction is over would be for the daily PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) to turn up."  That happened on Thursday, but there was no follow through on Friday due to, I believe, it being options expiration day, which tends to dampen volatility and keep prices steady. The slight decline caused the PMO to turn down again, but the direction is basically sideways. Let's see if a deeper analysis will clarify the situation for us. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week Read More 

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DP Alert: New ST Trend Model BUY for NDX - Gold Pulls Back

by Erin Swenlin

Today the Nasdaq 100 triggered a new Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) BUY signal. This replaces a Neutral signal from exactly one week ago. In the thumbnail of the chart below the DecisionPoint Scoreboards, you can that the Neutral signal was the victim of whipsaw. I've been bearish on the market of late, but looking at NDX price movement, I like the last bottom forming above the previous and a breakout attempt being made to new all-time highs. Note also that the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) has now turned up. Read More 

DecisionPoint

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) Shows Promise

by Erin Swenlin

During today's MarketWatchers LIVE show (12:00p - 1:30p EST MWF), Tom will review and annotate ten charts in ten minutes at ten minutes to one. We call it the "Ten in Ten to One". One of the first charts he reviewed was Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) which we both agreed looked pretty good right now. You'll find my analysis below. Support is holding well at the $38 range. There are quite a few bullish features to this chart.  1) A rounded bottom is typically bullish with the expectation to see higher prices. 2) It appears that the rounded Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Indicators Turn South - UUP New PMO SELL Signal

by Erin Swenlin

A look at the DecisionPoint Scoreboards reminds us that the short term is weak. Don't be fooled by the IT PMO BUY signals on the boards right now, I happen to know we have negative crossovers showing up on the weekly charts for three of these indexes. It's not surprising that our indicators are in line with the current scores. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the nine SPDR Sectors, the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Read More 

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Possible Selling Exhaustion Lining Up on Breadth and VIX Indicators

by Erin Swenlin

Tom Bowley and I host the MarketWatchers LIVE webcast M/W/F 12:00p - 1:30p EST. During Monday's second market update, I like to review the DecisionPoint indicators to look at indicator expectations for the week. The chart that really stood out to me was the ultra-short-term indicator chart.  First, this timeframe, "ultra-short term", is measured in hours to a day or two. While climactic readings on this chart can develop into something bigger over a longer timeframe, we should consider the actual timeframe for signals on this chart to be curtailed.  During Read More 

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DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap 4/13/2017 -- Market Overvalued

by Carl Swenlin

S&P 500 earnings results for 2016 Q4 are in, and the market is still grossly overvalued. The chart below shows the S&P 500 Index (black line) in relation to where it would be if it were undervalued (green line), fair value (blue line), or overvalued (red line). The current price is far above overvalue side of the range, because the S&P 500 has a P/E of 25. Earnings are expected to grow by +26% by the end of 2017 Q4, which would drop the P/E to 20, but only if price goes no higher. If the bull market advance continues, overvaluation will continue to be a problem. Read More 

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New Long-Term Trend Model BUY Signal for Gold

by Erin Swenlin

A new Long-Term Trend Model signal triggered on Gold today. This occurs when the 50-EMA crosses above the 200-EMA. When this happens, DecisionPoint theory is that any stock, ETF, index, etc. with a 50-EMA above the 200-EMA is in a technical bull market. What does this mean? If you are in a "bull market" environment, you should expect bullish outcomes over bearish outcomes. Gold happens to be in an interesting place. I have been bullish on Gold and still am to some degree. The daily chart looks good with a steeply rising Price Momentum Oscillator Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Volume Indicators Mixed - SPY Finds Support...For Now - ITTM Neutral Signal on RYF

by Erin Swenlin

No changes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. You'll find these boards in the DP Chart Gallery. However, we did get a new Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) Neutral signal on the equal-weight Financials ETF (RYF).  The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the nine SPDR Sectors, the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. To ensure that using this daily reference will be quick and painless, we are as brief as Read More 

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Uranium Looking Good - Excerpt from MarketWatchers LIVE

by Erin Swenlin

I'm really enjoying myself co-hosting the MarketWatchers LIVE webcasts Monday/Wednesday/Fridays at 12:00p - 1:30p EST. On Mondays and Wednesdays in this blog, I'll pick up an interesting topic or chart to elaborate on. I have to thank one of our Twitter followers for this pick. We had some time at the end of Tom's regular "Ten in Ten" segment (10 charts annotated in 10 minutes!) to take a few viewer requests. Uranium came up.  Tom took a look and then I did a DP style review. I am impressed with this viewer pick and here's why. I Read More 

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DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap April 7, 2017

by Carl Swenlin

*** IMPORTANT NOTE: We are making some changes to our DecisionPoint blogs and webinars starting on April 1st.Click here for more details. *** Despite a negative reaction to Fed comments, and the U.S attack on a Syrian air base, the market held steady within the current corrective phase. The 10-minute bar chart below shows two weeks of activity. Note that the bottom of a decline on Monday defined the bottom of a trading range that would hold for the rest of the week. An attempt to break out of the range on Wednesday failed, and prices retreated back into the sideways pattern Read More 

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Declining Trend Persists - IT Indicators Bottoming

by Erin Swenlin

No new changes on the DP Scoreboards. I was expecting to see the Dow trigger a Short-Term Trend Model BUY signal, but with yesterday's failed breakout and price stagnating over the past week or two, you can see that the 5-EMA is maintaining below the 20-EMA with little interest in crossing back above to generate the signal. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the nine SPDR Sectors, the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Read More 

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DP Alert: New BUY Signal for S&P 100 - S&P 600 (IJR) New ITTM Neutral Signal

by Erin Swenlin

The DecisionPoint Scoreboards updated with a new signal change today. The $OEX just managed a new Short-Term Trend Model BUY signal. The 5-EMA crossed above the 20-EMA triggering the signal. Right now price is running along the declining tops trendline. The PMO is no longer rising and that is a problem. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the nine SPDR Sectors, the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. To Read More 

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MarketWatchers LIVE Kick-Off - Recap of Market Indicators

by Erin Swenlin

MarketWatchers LIVE kicked off today at noon EST! Tom Bowley and I host this new webcast Monday, Wednesday and Friday from 12:00p - 1:30p EST. Very soon we will have a public ChartList available for the show as well as a MarketWatchers LIVE blog that will recap some of the important charts and topics discussed that day. Right now we don't quite have the collaborative ability to put detailed recaps together, but we soon will. Be sure and follow our new Twitter feed @MktWatchersLIVE and feel free to leave your comments, symbol requests etc. This will be THE place to interact with the Read More