DecisionPoint

June 2019

DecisionPoint

DP WEEKLY WRAP: Waiting for an Excuse to Do Something

by Carl Swenlin

So much of the time it seems we are waiting for some event that will determine what the market is going to do next. Last week it was waiting for the Fed. This week it was waiting for the meeting between President Trump and President Xi tomorrow. What the market will do next depends on that meeting, but we can't know what will come of that meeting. We can, however, make an educated guess. Based upon what I have been hearing, the U.S. and China are still quite far apart in the negotiations, so it seems highly unlikely that an agreement will be reached tomorrow, or even next week, so my guess Read More 

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DP Alert Mid-Week Review: Is it Time to Get Bearish on Gold?

by Erin Swenlin

The market has cooled this week. There are no changes on the DP Scoreboard indexes, nor on the Sector Scoreboard. Indicators are starting to look worrisome, but we do need to see some digestion of last week's rally. Gold has been on fire! I'm starting to hear rumblings about a bearish move on Gold. I'll examine the positives and negatives in its section following the market review. The DecisionPoint Alert presents a mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Read More 

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DP WEEKLY WRAP: Short-Term Bearish Indications

by Carl Swenlin

The market closed at an all-time high on Thursday, then on Friday it hit an all-time intraday high; however, there are some technical problems: (1) a bearish rising wedge pattern has formed; (2) there is an OBV negative divergence; (3) volume has been thin since the June low; and (4) the VIX penetrated the top Bollinger Band on Thursday, indicating that a short-term price top may be in. To clarify, SPX Volume on Friday was huge, but that was because of end-of-quarter options expiration, not an indication of some kind of blow-off. Below let's see how all this fits in the broader picture Read More 

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DP Alert Mid-Week: VIX Nears Bollinger Band Break, But Short-Term Indicators are Bullish

by Erin Swenlin

Yesterday, in a DP Bulletin, I covered the new IT BUY signals on the NDX and Dow. We should soon see the Dow's weekly PMO click a new IT BUY signal. That would only leave the Long-Term PMO SELL signals that still linger on the monthly charts. Indicators, minus the VIX, are very bullish. The DP Sector Scoreboard shows on Energy (XLE) on SELL signals, while the rest are on BUYs in the intermediate and long term. The DecisionPoint Alert presents a mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P Read More 

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DP Bulletin: IT Trend Model BUY Signals for NDX and Dow - Bull Flags Execute

by Erin Swenlin

More changes to report on the DP Scoreboards, as well as a pending signal. Both the NDX and Dow Industrials garnered IT Trend Model BUY signals when the 20-EMA crossed above the 50-EMA for both. You'll note that the Dow is the only one left out on the IT PMO BUY signal train. However, a peek at the Dow weekly chart confirms that an IT PMO BUY signal is on tap. Currently, the weekly PMO on the Dow has made the positive crossover. However, weekly signals don't go "final" until the close on the final trading day of the week. Unless we see a serious pullback or correction, I suspect that IT Read More 

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DP WEEKLY WRAP: Market Quiet Ahead of Fed; Gold Has Long-Term "Smile"

by Carl Swenlin

Sometimes I can be a little slow on the uptake, and the monthly gold chart is the latest example. This week it dawned on me that gold is in its seventh year of forming a bullish saucer, which would be the reverse equivalent of a bearish rounded top. After activating the Crystal Ball feature of SharpCharts, I am seeing the possibility of breakout and pullback, which would put a handle on the saucer, giving us a "saucer with handle" formation. It could, of course, resolve differently because of imperfections in the crystal ball feature, as well as pilot error, but for now, I am long-term Read More 

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DP Alert Mid-Week: SPX IT Trend Model BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

Today's Scoreboard shows a few changes, but I'm afraid these new BUY signals are arriving late. The NDX finally caught up with short-term BUY signals, and today we saw the SPX click a new IT Trend Model BUY signal when the 20-EMA crossed above the 50-EMA. The DecisionPoint Alert presents a mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil and Bonds. Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint on StockCharts TV's YouTube channel here! Read More 

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DP Bulletin: New ST Buy Signals Galore on Scoreboards

by Erin Swenlin

On Friday, $INDU logged both a Short-Term Trend Model BUY Signal and a Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal. Today, the SPX and OEX joined the party. The NDX is extraordinarily close to those same BUY signals and should switch tomorrow. Notice that, on price, today's high pierced the resistance at the May top. However, we did see a close near the open for the day, which is generally a sign of exhaustion. The OBV is beginning to form a reverse divergence. The next OBV top will be the highest of the past year, but price still won't Read More 

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DP WEEKLY WRAP: Volume Ratio Spikes Flag ST Market Turns

by Carl Swenlin

Some time ago on StockCharts TV I discussed volume ratios and how higher than normal ratios help identify climactic events and possible turning points. This week on Tuesday we had such an event when the  SPX up volume divided by down volume produced a ratio of over 15. I have identified it as an initiation climax because price action on that day broke a down trend and initiated a move to the upside. On the chart below in May we can also see a down volume divided by up volume ratio of over 17, which I tagged as an exhaustion climax --  price reversed the next day. However, as Read More 

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DP Alert Mid-Week: Gold Already at Resistance - Record Breaking New Highs

by Erin Swenlin

The number I've heard tossed around over the past few weeks regarding a gold rally is a move to $1340. Well, in just a few days, we have popped above that, and the chart suggests we will continue to see more rallying. This week's climactic indicator chart recorded the highest reading of the year for the number of New Highs in the SPX. It smells like a buying exhaustion, especially when compared to other breadth indicators.  The DecisionPoint Alert presents a mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market Read More