DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of DecisionPoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

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DP Weekly Wrap: Will Real Estate Be the Killer? Again?

by Carl Swenlin

The root cause of the Financial Crisis was real estate speculation combined with Wall Street's perennial, casual disregard for other people's money. After the real estate market crashed, the zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) was put forth in order to see that real estate speculators were made whole again. Thanks to this generous, artificial stimulus, real estate prices have recovered, and a new bubble has been created. With interest rates headed back to more normal levels, we are beginning to see pressure on real estate prices. Looking at the daily chart Read More 

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DP Bulletin #2: NDX Loses 3 Day-Old PMO BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

Well that didn't last long. The NDX had finally joined the Dow with a Scoreboard complete with BUY signals on Friday. Today's pullback erased that as the PMO was yanked downward and back under its signal line. Interestingly, the NDX is the only Scoreboard index that I felt had a rising trend channel instead of a rising wedge, yet today that rising trend was broken. We can still see support around 7400, but this corrective move suggests more downside to me. The OBV is flat and indecisive. The only positive I can say is that volume didn't accompany this large decline. Volume was Read More 

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DP Alert: Head & Shoulders Pattern Activates on TLT Correction

by Erin Swenlin

No new changes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards since last week's PMO BUY signal on the NDX. Hard to believe the OEX and SPX haven't followed suit with the Dow and NDX. The OEX is nearing the BUY signal and should trigger tomorrow barring a large decline. The SPX as you'll see still has a falling PMO, so no new BUY signal anytime soon. The DecisionPoint Alert presents an mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. SECTORS Read More 

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DP Bulletin: NDX Adds Short-Term PMO BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

On Friday, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) switched to a Short-Term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal. It joins the Dow which already had a PMO BUY signal that was logged on 9/19/18. The SPX and OEX are the laggards right now. I've annotated the PMO BUY signal. The prominent features of this price chart are the rising bottoms trendline as well as the tiny breakout intraday. Likely helped by the new NAFTA announcement, markets are rising higher. The OEX could finish the day with a new PMO BUY signal. The dominant feature on this chart would be Read More 

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DP Weekly/Monthly Wrap: Failure to Thrive

by Carl Swenlin

This chart was added almost as an afterthought in last Friday's DP Weekly Wrap, but throughout the week I kept thinking that it should elevated to the lead chart this week. The Bullish Percent Index (BPI) shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks with point and figure (PnF) BUY signals. I have annotated three significant negative divergences. The first two show the BPI dropping while prices rise or remain flat. This undermining eventually results in sharp price pullbacks. The current divergence is different but still significant.  Here prices are pushing to record highs, but the BPI Read More 

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DP Alert: Possible Selling Exhaustion in Very Short Term - Stubborn Gold

by Erin Swenlin

Advances minus declines readings over the past few days are suggesting a short-term selling exhaustion. And, what's up with Gold? It's been poised to breakout for some time and we're still waiting. There were no changes to the Scoreboards this past week, but, there were two whipsaw signals that I opted not to put on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. Both the OEX and SPX had PMO BUY signals for one day that switched back to SELL signals. The Dow is still clinging to its PMO BUY signal, but its PMO is declining. The DecisionPoint Sector Scoreboard saw a new ITTM BUY on XLE yesterday which Read More 

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Energy Sector Moves to IT BUY Signal - All Sectors, All on BUYs IT and LT

by Erin Swenlin

When I look at the DecisionPoint Sector Scoreboard, it is near impossible to be bearish in the longer term. When we see participation in all of the sectors that results in BUY signals across the board, the market is not generally vulnerable to a correction. Price shocks happen, but typically you will see the BUY signals start to disappear on the Scoreboard before a correction or certainly a bear market. We have not added the new Communications SPDR (XLC) to our signal table yet, but if we had, it would show an IT Trend Model Neutral signal. As I'll show you, it is nearing an IT Trend Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Two Indications of a Short-Term Top

by Carl Swenlin

The market (represented by SPY) has nearly reached the top of a rising wedge formation, and the VIX has reached the top Bollinger Band on our reverse scale display. There is no guarantee, but there is a pretty good chance that a short-term top is very near. There is also the technical expectation that price will eventually break down from the rising wedge, but not necessarily on the next pullback. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold Read More 

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Natural Gas (UNG) Ready to Catch Fire

by Erin Swenlin

Today I received two bullish email alerts on Natural Gas (UNG). First, the Short-Term Trend Model had triggered a BUY signal. This means the 5-EMA just crossed above the 20-EMA. Second, there was a Short-Term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal that registered today as well. I hadn't looked at UNG charts in some time and I can see why, they've been anything but interesting. However, the daily, weekly and monthly charts all look quite bullish right now. Last June I wrote an article about a possible rebirth for XLRE based on the daily and weekly chart PMOs and Read More 

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DP Alert: Dow Takes the Lead with New PMO BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

Big news today was a new Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal on the Dow. I've noticed the bifurcation of the markets. Today saw a positive close for the Dow, OEX and SPX, but the NDX, $MID and $SML all closed lower. In the case of mid- and small-caps, they took back most of the gains they made yesterday.   The daily chart for the Dow shows the breakout from the consolidation channel it's been traveling in for the past month, occurred yesterday. Today's strong rally was a nice continuation. Overhead resistance is nearing at the all-time high, but the PMO is Read More 

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