DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of Decisionpoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

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Small-Cap ETFs In Trouble - Possible Head and Shoulders Formations

by Erin Swenlin

After the market close, my technical alert activated on IJR, the S&P 600 ETF with a new Intermediate-Term Trend Model Neutral signal. I noted that this same signal has already been hit on IWM, the Russell 2000 ETF. While I believe we are in a consolidation or shake out with a follow-up rally likely coming in the market, I'm not yet convinced the bull market is or will resume anytime soon. I'm sure it hasn't passed notice that Carl and I have been more bearish than most based on sector rotation study, our indicators and now I'm seeing small-cap charts setting up for decline, not rebound Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Choppy Week Closes Down

by Carl Swenlin

On the SPY chart last week I thought I saw a reverse flag formation, although it was not as tightly defined as I would like. This week the market thrashed around pretty badly, and although the flag didn't become more visible, there is still a ragged cluster of price bars that, in my opinion, serves the same purpose. A case can still be made for a double bottom, but I think the ragged cluster is a continuation pattern calling for lower prices. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock Read More 

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Indicators - ST Overbought with Negative Divergences Sprinkled on Top

by Erin Swenlin

It was heady to feel the bullish exuberance pulsing around the MarketWatchers LIVE show, but now that the day is over and the indicators are ready for review. I was seriously disappointed not to see the supporting evidence I wanted so I too could enjoy some bullish exuberance. Our poll question today was a bit unfair, but certainly represented the excitement and poked a little fun about not being on the bull band wagon. The current results are below. Note my vote was "stuck in neutral". I still feel good about that vote, especially after reviewing DecisionPoint indicators. Read More 

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DP Alert: Bounce Back for Cyclicals and Technology Eases Bear Market Fears

by Erin Swenlin

I was concerned earlier this week when we lost the IT Trend Model BUY signals in the aggressive technology and cyclicals sectors. However, both of these sectors have surged over the past two days which does allay fears of a bear market setting up. You'll see below the Sector Scoreboard, the one week and one month performance from the Sector Summary Report which shows you that over the past month defensive sectors were "leading" (some were just not losing as much as others) but now within the past week we see Technology and Consumer Discretionary coming back to life. I wrote an Read More 

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Intermediate-Term Trend Model NEUTRAL Triggered on NDX - No ITTM BUY Signals on SPDRs

by Erin Swenlin

Today the NDX succumbed to peer pressure and dropped its Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY signal. The Scoreboards below are clear: Long term has a bullish bias, but serious damage has been done in the short and intermediate terms.  The IT Trend Model signals are based on 20/50-EMA crossovers in relation to the 200-EMA. Today the NDX 20-EMA crossed below the 50-EMA while the 50-EMA was above the 200-EMA. This is a Neutral signal. If the 50-EMA had been below the 200-EMA (bearish configuration), the 20/50-EMA negative crossover would've been a "SELL" signal. DecisionPoint Read More 

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DP Weekly/Monthly Wrap: Is That a Reverse Flag?

by Carl Swenlin

Last week the market broke down from a rising wedge pattern and dove into a scary decline. This week was choppy and wild, but price stayed within a somewhat ragged range that looks to me like a bearish reverse flag formation. Price remained above the 200EMA, and every day volume was a bit above the one-year average of volume. Has there been a successful retest, or is there more trouble ahead? The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Read More 

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New ST PMO BUY Signal for UUP - Sector Rotation On Defense

by Erin Swenlin

The Dollar has been poised for a breakout for some time. The PMO has been rising nicely, but UUP has been banging its head on overhead resistance with not much success. Looking at the big picture, relative strength has been shuffling toward defensive sectors like Consumer Staples and Utilities which should make investors uneasy. Since forming the double-bottom back in January/February, I've been bullish on the Dollar but it has struggled. In fact, the double-bottom pattern was scrubbed when the final breakout in March didn't take. Price has been pounding on overhead resistance with no Read More 

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SPX and XLF Trigger IT Trend Model Neutral on Friday and NDX Loses IT PMO BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

After day with the SPX up 2.72% and the NDX up 3.78%, it may seem strange to be talking about the loss of BUY signals on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. My answer is that one day does not a bull market make. However, I'm not on board with this being a new bear market, although there is certainly evidence to support this position as found in Carl's DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap. We are in the midst of a strong correction and have nearly reached the support levels of the February lows. This retest will be very important as rising bottoms trendline support in the longer term is being tested Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Sixteen-Month BUY Signal Ends

by Carl Swenlin

This week the rising wedge we had identified resolved downward, as expected. Once that happened, we needed to provide a context that could help determine an initial downside target, so we focused on the double top confirmation line, drawn across the low between the tops. That line was violated on Friday, and now the minimum downside target is the support line drawn across the February low. Actually, the double top downside projection is slightly below that line, but I chose to go for the obvious. The IT Trend Model BUY signal, one of the longest lasting that I can remember, switched to Read More 

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Climactic Indicators Suggest Dead Cat Bounce Ahead - NDX and OEX Neutral Signals

by Erin Swenlin

Two more BUY signals were lost on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. We haven't seen the Intermediate-Term Trend Model Neutral signals on the Scoreboards in over a year. This consistent deterioration is worrisome and combined with bearish chart patterns and indicators, I'd have to say the correction is still 'on'. Our climactic indicators give us a sense of what to expect in the next few days and they pointing to a dead cat bounce.  Let's review the signal changes first. The OEX is in serious trouble right now after executing the double-top formation. As I noted Read More 

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