DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of Decisionpoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

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DP Alert: Small-Caps Bifurcate Market - Possible Buying Initiation Lining Up

by Erin Swenlin

Amazing! A week without any DP Scoreboard updates. All of these indexes came very close to new PMO SELL signals yesterday with the big decline, but today's rally pop changed that quickly with all four PMOs turning back up and away from their signal lines. While not a news flash, small-caps are clearly outperforming the large-cap indexes. This likely has to do with the rising Dollar and its effects on overseas business for large-cap multinational companies. The Russell 2000 logged new all-time highs while the Scoreboard indexes have mostly struggled and are far off all-time highs. I look to Read More 

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Financial SPDR (XLF) Triggers PMO SELL Signal AND Trend Model Neutral Signal!

by Erin Swenlin

The markets spent much of last week consolidating or pulling back. The Financial sector was no exception. As with many of the major markets, XLF was hit especially hard today with a decline of over 3.3%. This was a more than decisive breakdown which would suggest lower prices ahead.  If you take nothing else from this article, I hope that you look at the importance of support for XLF at $26.50. If it should fail, which the nasty PMO SELL signal suggests, the next interim area of support is around $25.50 which corresponds to the August 2017 high and the lows in November 2017 Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: From Flag to Churn

by Carl Swenlin

Last week I thought we had a good outlook based upon a bullish flag formation, but this week the market just added more sideways movement. We could still make a case for a flag being in place, but a good flag should slant down off the flagpole as a sign that some compression is building that could launch the next leg up. This sideways churning dampens my enthusiasm. Volume continues to be light compared to the 250EMA of volume, and the daily PMO has topped. My outlook is more cautious. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week Read More 

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DP Alert: Intermediate-Term Indicators Remain Bullish - Worst Could Be Over

by Erin Swenlin

It looks like I may actually have a week without a signal change on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. Currently all trends are bullish, although momentum isn't positive in the intermediate term. The IT PMO signals are derived from the weekly PMO. The weekly PMOs are mostly flat and directionless with quite a bit of margin to cover before triggering any crossover BUY signals. Despite that, IT indicators are still quite positive and suggest a rally resumption. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Bullish Flag Forming

by Carl Swenlin

Back in the day, options expiration days were characterized by high volatility and exceptionally high volume; however, in recent years the market stays relatively calm, and the high volume only appears at the end of each quarter. These expectations were not disappointed in today's trading. In fact, the entire week was calm, as price worked sideways into a flag formation. Volume for the last two weeks has been somewhat thin, which implies that market participants are not fully committed to the rally. Nevertheless, from the April low a rising trend has been established (a bottom above a Read More 

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DP Bulletin #3: Trend Models on BUY Signals in All Timeframes as Dow Triggers ITTM BUY

by Erin Swenlin

The Dow was the laggard but it finally managed an Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY signal today when the 20-EMA crossed above the 50-EMA. This moves all four Scoreboards' Trend Models to BUY signals in the short-, intermediate- and long-terms. The last time all three timeframes were all on Trend Model BUY signals was March 13th. This could actually be considered worrisome since it was shortly after March 13th that the rally failed and the correction resumed. I'm not looking for that. If you read the "DP Alert" I wrote yesterday, you'll see what is stirring my optimism.  Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Short-Term Weakness Should Clear Soon - $90/Barrel Not Out of the Questiorm

by Erin Swenlin

There still may be some growing pains to endure, but seeing Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY signals beginning to populate the DP Scoreboards for the first time since March. The Dow should be joining the ITTM BUY signal party very soon. I was surprised it didn't trigger today, but apparently the +0.25% rally wasn't quite enough. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. SECTORS Each Read More 

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DP Bulletin #2: OEX Adds IT Trend Model BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

Another Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY signal arrived on the OEX Scoreboard. The Dow is very close to the same signal. For more information, I refer you to yesterday's article about the SPX IT Trend Model BUY signal. My analysis remains the same as yesterday. The outlook is improving a great deal for the markets, yet a day like today reminds us that weakness remains a problem. The declining tops trendline is holding up after price broke out above it. Strong support should be available at the early March bottom since it also will likely Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Bulletin #1: SPX Generates a New Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

The SPX is the 2nd of the four DP Scoreboard indexes to trigger a new IT Trend Model BUY signal. This signal replaces a late March Neutral signal. I've added the OEX and Dow charts below the SPX so you can see how close they are to triggering IT Trend Model BUY signals as well. An IT Trend Model BUY signal is triggered when the 20-EMA crosses above the 50-EMA. We haven't seen the 20-EMA above the 50-EMA since mid-March so I find this signal very encouraging. This signal follows a NDX ITTM BUY signal last week. These breakouts from declining tops trendlines as well as support holding Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: SPY New BUY Signal

by Carl Swenlin

On Friday the SPY 20EMA crossed up through the 50EMA, generating an Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) BUY signal for the broad market (SPY). Does this mean that I will have to reconsider my assumption that we are in a bear market? Well, I can hardly avoid it, but I still have some reservations. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. SECTORS Each S&P 500 Index component stock Read More 

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