DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of Decisionpoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

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$VIX Flying High, This Has Bullish Implications

by Erin Swenlin

One chart that I have been watching very closely is the DecisionPoint Climactic Indicator chart. I use this chart to give me an idea of very short-term sentiment and how to use it to determine possible tops and bottoms. Today I'm seeing some extremes that could be telling us to expect a turnaround by week's end. Granted it's been only one day of real decline, but many viewers of MarketWatchers LIVE were hinting at some major discomfort with today's price action which to me proves the point that sentiment moved very bearish today. Sentiment is contrarian, so this is bullish for the very Read More 

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Mid-Cap and Small-Cap ETFs Deteriorating (IJH & IJR)

by Erin Swenlin

It is very tough to find weakness in the major indexes as they continue to fly higher. However, I was reviewing my DecisionPoint LIVE ChartList and noted that we are seeing a few warning signs on the small and mid-cap ETFs, IJR and IJH.  Currently, both IJH and IJR have PMOs that have topped. All of the major large cap indexes that we follow on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards (NDX, OEX, Dow, SPX) have PMOs that are rising. Relatively speaking, IJH has more problems than IJR. The mid-caps topped last week and have yet to set a new intraday high. Price is now sitting along Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Market Pumps; Dollar Dumps

by Carl Swenlin

This week the market underwent a horrifying intraday reversal. Just kidding. There was a surprising reversal on Wednesday, but by the close SPY was virtually unchanged. We can see on the chart that at the intraday low the steep January rising trend line was barely tested. And in the context of January's advance it is as if nothing dramatic happened at all. Which, I guess, it didn't. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Read More 

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Volatility Indexes for NDX ($VXN) and Gold ($GVZ) Suggest Rally Pop Ahead

by Erin Swenlin

Many of you may not be aware, but DecisionPoint has charts for most of the volatility indexes in the DecisionPoint Market Indicator ChartPack. We're in the process of updating the ChartPack, but there's no reason you can't download it now and enjoy the plethora of indicators available to you for most major indexes. I hadn't looked at this ChartList with the volatility indexes in a very long time. I primarily use the volatility index as a very short-term sentiment indicator. Based on the NDX and Gold volatility indexes, I'm expecting a "rally pop". I have no idea if this is my own term or Read More 

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DP Alert: Bull Flag Executes on USO! New Upside Target

by Erin Swenlin

The DecisionPoint Scoreboards remain green as momentum is positive and price trends continue higher in this seemingly unending bull market rally. I'm seeing a few cracks in the pavement right now in the short-term indicators with a negative divergence between breadth and volume. USO began executing a bull flag yesterday and today it took off. I'll give you my thoughts on a potential upside target in the section on Oil below. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action Read More 

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Near-Term Divergence Ends Between Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs), Intermediate Term Remains

by Erin Swenlin

On Monday's MarketWatchers LIVE program during the "DecisionPoint Report", I highlighted a divergence between the Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs). I admitted that I hadn't seen a divergence lasting over a day or two. These are short-term indicators that generally travel in concert. The difference between them is that one is based on breadth (advances/declines) and the other on volume (advancing/declining volume). This divergence began last week and ended today. Seeing the divergence between the STO-B and STO-V with the volume indicator moving lower suggests that volume wasn't Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Almost A Top

by Carl Swenlin

Friday was the last trading day before options expiration, so higher than normal volume should be attributed to that, not to other interpretations of volume versus price movement. We began the trading week with another breakout to new, all-time highs, but that turned into an intraday reversal. But not to worry, the decline only brought price back to the January rising trend line, which held for the rest of the week. In the process, price was squeezed into a short-term rising wedge. Typically, these formations resolve downward, but, let me guess, this wedge will probably resolve to the Read More 

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Anatomy of a Trade: Kelly Services (KELYA) - Stops/Targets/Evaluation

by Erin Swenlin

One of my favorite segments to do and watch on the MarketWatchers LIVE show M-F 12:00p - 1:30p EST is the "Anatomy of a Trade". Tom Bowley, my co-host, is a very short-term trader and generally has a handful of trades to discuss. However, I'm not nearly as active as Tom so I usually go through a "paper trade" to explain my trading strategy. Today's blog article is based on a paper trade. One thing to always remember is to stick to your strategy and not get too emotionally involved in a trade--easier said than done, right? I'm going to run through a trade as it happened and explain my Read More 

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DP Alert: Market Overbought or the "New Normal"? - UUP H&S Executing As Expected

by Erin Swenlin

As we watch the SPX continue to move higher in parabolic fashion, it's of course natural to begin to worry about a market collapse. During today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, Tom and I went over what we think are good "alerts" to the bear market switchover. However, Carl made a great point in Friday's "Weekly Wrap" that we could be looking at a "new normal" as far as bull and bear markets are concerned.    Note the long-term monthly chart below. Monthly PMO SELL signals have worked quite well to warn of impending bear markets or corrections Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Zoom!

by Carl Swenlin

Positive events resulting from the recent tax cut legislation continued to lift the market this week, bonuses and pay raises being most prominent in the headlines. I'm sure that there is a substantial element of anticipation as to the positive effects of corporate taxes being cut by 40%, but I think it will take a while before we have an accurate assessment of the bottom line. At any rate, I think we're watching prices being adjusted upward in response to the new reality. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the Read More 

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