DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of Decisionpoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

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DP Alert: Bearish Double-Top on SPY - USO Breaks Out Big

by Erin Swenlin

Below you'll find the latest DP Scoreboards. I've included a Sector Scoreboard that Carl and I will keep updated for analysis of sector rotation. The NDX is the only Scoreboard index holding its own. I don't think the NDX is out of the woods (see my article from yesterday) especially when we are seeing such weakness among the others. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the nine SPDR Sectors, the U.S. Dollar, Gold Read More 

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NDX Catches the Bearish Contagion - SPX Loses Both Short-Term BUY Signals

by Erin Swenlin

Just like dominos, the BUY signals on the DP Scoreboards are toppling and we're finally seeing some deterioration on the NDX. With Facebook (FB) and other technology stocks taking it on the chin the past few days, the NDX is finally succumbing to the downside pressure. A look at the Scoreboards below does tell you that the NDX is still showing relative strength amongst them. I would like to take you on a walk through these four indexes from strongest to weakest based on the arrival of the latest bear signals. The recent breakdown from the Read More 

DecisionPoint

Dow Troubles: New IT Trend Model Neutral Signal - OEX Triggers ST Bearish Signals - Indicators Bearish

by Erin Swenlin

You'll note three BUY signals were lost today on the Dow and the OEX. The Industrials have been struggling. The Dow was unable to trigger a PMO BUY signal when the other three indexes had managed them with ease. The picture is getting worse for the Dow and the chart pattern is not encouraging. The question now is whether the deterioration of the Dow and now the OEX will tear down the SPX and NDX, neither of which is showing much strength as it is. I have been watching a large symmetrical triangle on the Dow which more often than not is a continuation pattern, so Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Bearish Rising Wedge Appears

by Carl Swenlin

First, the super high S&P 500 volume today was because of options expiration, so don't read anything else into it. Last Friday's encouraging breakout is looking like a short-term bull trap , as the market pulled back to the declining tops line support this week. Drawing a line across the two recent tops forms the top of a bearish rising wedge formation, bearish because rising wedges normally resolve downward. The reason for this tendency is that the rising trend line at the bottom of the wedge is usually too steep to be sustained, and a breakdown (correction) is needed, at the very Read More 

DecisionPoint

Dow's Weakness and DP Indicators Suggest Gloomy Short Term

by Erin Swenlin

It was only yesterday that I added a new BUY signal to the Dow's Scoreboard and today, it's already gone. The Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) is based on 5/20-EMA crossovers. The Dow's 5-EMA crossed below the 20-EMA while it was above the 50-EMA--that constitutes a Neutral signal. Had the crossover occurred below the 50-EMA, it would have been an STTM SELL signal. The Scoreboards clearly show Today intraday low tested the rising bottoms trendline that forms the bottom of a symmetrical triangle. These patterns are continuation patterns so the expectation is a break Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Bulletin: OEX & Dow Get New Buy Signals

by Erin Swenlin

On Friday, the OEX managed to get both a new Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) BUY signal and a Short-Term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal. At the time the Dow was the only Scoreboard to not have ST buy signals. Today that changed with a new STTM Buy signal for the Dow. The PMO missed a positive crossover on the Dow by less than one hundredth of a point. So expect to see it tomorrow. In the case of the OEX, I like the new rising trend channel that is forming. The Dow isn't too bad with a symmetrical triangle. Symmetrical triangles are continuation patterns Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Double Bottoms Abound

by Carl Swenlin

Friday was an exceptionally positive day, as prices advanced on good news regarding North Korea and jobs. Here are charts of the S&P 500 (SPY) and the 10 major sectors. The recurring theme we see is the double bottom. One exception is Utilities (XLU), which hasn't quite made the turn off the second bottom, and Technology (XLK), which actually formed a more aggressive "V" bottom. In addition, XLK has advanced to new, all-time highs this week. All the PMOs have bottomed, and most are above their signal lines. In general it looks as if we have witnessed a successful retest of the February Read More 

DecisionPoint

SPX Scoreboard Adds Buy Signals - Is Correction Over?

by Erin Swenlin

Let's get that title question answered right nowNo, I don't think the correction is over. Yes, today we got both a ST Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal and an ST Trend Model BUY signal. The chart still has problems. We had Tushar Chande on MarketWatchers LIVE today (go watch the recording!) and he made a case for a retest of the February low or the set-up of a double-bottom. He noted that many of his fellow bloggers, like Tom and I, have pointed out evidence to bolster that position. It was a bit easier to take that position when the SPX, Dow and OEX Scoreboards were only Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Mixed Messages Warrant Caution

by Erin Swenlin

It's days like today that I find it frustrating to write (probably why this is posted late). It's not really writers' block, but the many mixed messages or lack of messages I'm getting on the charts right now. I could probably make a bullish and bearish case quite easily on most of these charts, but rather than that, I'll give you what the dispassionate indicators are saying. The DP Scoreboards are mixed as well, but clearly leaning neutral to bearish for all but the NDX. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update Read More 

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Rydex Ratio Turns Down - Bullish Sentiment = Bearish Implications

by Erin Swenlin

I decided to take a look at the Rydex Ratio today to see what the daily assets might be telling us as far as "actual money" sentiment. Here's a refresher for those new to the Rydex Ratio and sentiment readings in general. First, sentiment tells us if market participants are feeling bullish or bearish. The sentiment polls measure those "feelings" by simply asking those polled whether they are bullish or bearish on the market. The Rydex Assets chart shows the reality of what investors are actually doing with their money. Many times it will not sync with the polls. Read More 

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