DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of DecisionPoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

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DP WEEKLY WRAP: Overhead Resistance Near; VIX Overbought

by Carl Swenlin

An inverted VIX with Bollinger Bands is a pretty good overbought/oversold indicator, and it is overbought when the VIX hits the upper band as it almost did today. "Almost" might be good enough this time, or we may have to wait a few days for the real deal, but it is close enough to get my attention. Not only is the VIX overbought, the S&P 500 (SPY) has nearly reached last year's all-time highs, which is a significant level of overhead resistance. Below we will be looking at the condition of other indicators to see if they pose additional obstacles to higher prices. Read More 

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DP Alert: ST PMO BUY Signals on All Four Scoreboard Indexes

by Erin Swenlin

Yesterday, the NDX started the PMO BUY signal party by adding the first Short-Term PMO BUY signal. Today, the other three indexes clicked ST PMO BUY signals as well. Below the Scoreboard are the charts of each signal. The Dow is struggling with overhead resistance. The NDX had a convincing breakout today after getting its PMO BUY signal yesterday. The OEX looks like the SPX, with a bearish rising wedge still intact. The DecisionPoint Alert presents a mid-week Read More 

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DP WEEKLY/MONTHLY WRAP: Broad Market Divergences

by Carl Swenlin

This is a new chart I will be adding to my weekly commentary. My concentration has always been on the S&P 500 Index, but I realized that I needed to broaden my scope somewhat to include other segments of the the broad market, and this is my first effort. The idea is to get a quick scan to see if something needs a closer look. First, we notice that these indexes can be in agreement, as they were last fall. The S&P 500 made a December top beneath the November top, and the other indexes did the same. More recently the S&P 500 made a March top higher than the February top, but the Read More 

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DP Alert: Short-Term Shake Up on Scoreboards - Bearish Wedge Nearly Executes

by Erin Swenlin

The OEX and Dow lost short-term BUY signals on Monday and the NDX followed today, having switched out of a ST PMO BUY signal. I thought it was time to do a review of the Scoreboard indexes, so their charts are below. Additionally, you'll find my regular mid-week review of the SPX, indicators and "Big Four." The Dow appears to have a double-top forming; it will become official should it execute with a drop below the confirmation line (about 25250). The minimum downside target for the pattern would be a move down to 24250. Currently, the 50-EMA is providing Read More 

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DP WEEKLY WRAP: Fakeout Breakout; Bond Blastoff

by Carl Swenlin

Last week certain indicators had me looking for a short-term market top, and on Wednesday it looked as if it had arrived. But no. On Thursday the market moved to new rally highs on volume that wasn't too little or too much, so I thought that looked like a pretty solid breakout. But no -- it was a fakeout. Friday saw a level of selling that we haven't seen for some time, and price retested support that goes back to the three important price tops that were formed late last year. So we finally got the short-term top I was looking for, and in our market discussion below we will look for clues Read More 

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DP Alert: SPX Momentum Failure - Negative Divergence on ST Indicators - Broken Dollar

by Erin Swenlin

The Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) has topped underneath the signal line, something I consider especially bearish in the short term. Our short-term indicators have presented another "attention flag" divergence, which could be pointing to a more lasting decline. Today, the Dollar broke down dramatically on the heels of a PMO SELL signal. The DecisionPoint Scoreboards below show us that both the Dow and the SPX are lagging in terms of the short-term PMO signals and, with a decline likely to continue, those SELL signals will remain intact. Nothing new on the DP Sector Scoreboard Read More 

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DP WEEKLY WRAP: Short-Term Top Soon?

by Carl Swenlin

At the end of last week I was looking forward to some more selling to extend the decline that had started from the March 4 top. But no. Price rebounded off last Friday's low, eventually setting a new high for the rally off the December lows. However, on Friday we got a signal that has me looking for a short-term market top very soon. The signal comes from the VIX panel on the chart below. You'll note that I use a different presentation of the VIX than what you will normally see. First I use a log scale to enhance the definition in the lower ranges, and I reverse the scale so that it Read More 

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DP Alert: Oil (USO) and Bonds (TLT) Trigger New PMO BUY Signals

by Erin Swenlin

We have a new signal to add to the DecisionPoint Scoreboards, as the OEX triggered a Long-Term BUY signal on Monday. All of the large-cap Scoreboard indexes are now on Trend Model BUY signals in three timeframes. Additionally, we acquired two new BUY signals on Oil and Bonds, which I'll cover in the sections below. To our DP faithful, don't miss this Friday's show at 4:30p EST, where Carl and I will go through the major markets as well as the Big Four. Each week, we also add a "bonus" segment with charts that we believe you must see before starting the week ahead. Read More 

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DP WEEKLY WRAP: Market Breaks, Gold Fakes

by Carl Swenlin

It took over two weeks, but the market top we've been looking for finally materialized. Price broke down through a rising bottoms line that goes back to the beginning of January. Also violated was the bottom of the trading range that has lasted over two weeks.  At very overbought levels, the daily PMO finally topped and crossed down through the signal line. I am assuming that this is the beginning of a move that could possibly retest the December lows, but more clarification on that later. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an Read More 

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DP Alert: SPX Triggers New Short-Term PMO SELL Signal - Wedge Finally Breaks Down

by Erin Swenlin

This will be fairly brief today, as I am in the process of moving to a new home and it's a bit crazy over here. It's important to note the new ST PMO BUY signal, which occurred on a PMO positive crossover on the SPX daily chart. Also, the bearish wedge pattern has finally executed on the SPX. In addition, I would like to point out on the DP Sector Summary below that XLK had a positive 50/200-EMA crossover, which generated a new LT Trend Model BUY signal. The DecisionPoint Alert presents a mid-week Read More 

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