DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of Decisionpoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

DecisionPoint

Bad News for Bonds - New IT Trend Model Neutral - 30-Yr Yields Prepare for Breakout

by Erin Swenlin

Today I received notice that TLT had triggered a new Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) Neutral signal. I decided to take a look at $TYX to see if yields were lining up with the action on TLT. Of course the relationship between TLT and $TYX is inverse, so a bearish TLT chart should yield (no pun intended) a 30-Yr Treasury Yield chart that is bullish. It did, only in a slightly different way than I expected. The new ITTM Neutral signal was generated when the 20-EMA crossed below the 50-EMA. It was not a SELL signal because the 50-EMA is above the 200-EMA which implies TLT is in a bull Read More 

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DP Alert: Bullish Indicators, But isn't it Time for a Pause? - Flag or Island Reversal on USO?

by Erin Swenlin

Carl always told me that you shouldn't put questions in the title of your articles unless you plan on answering them. I will. First, I want to point out the all green DecisionPoint Scoreboards. As I told listeners this morning, since I've been tracking these Scoreboards over three years, this is only the second time they have been all green; and the first time it only lasted two days and the market began to pause and top somewhat which added a few PMO SELL signals. I would look at these "all green" boards as a possible warning we will see a pause or pullback soon.  Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: A Record of Our Own

by Carl Swenlin

The market was flat for the last two weeks of December, and I thought that might be a sign that it was hanging on by its fingernails until the first of the year, when we might see some profit taking. But, no. Why take profits when the market seems to be bulletproof? I have been hearing about a lot of positive statistical 'firsts' regarding market performance in the last year, and I recently realized I have a first of my own to report. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market Read More 

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DP Bulletin: Dow Regains PMO BUY Signal - DP Scoreboards ALL Green

by Erin Swenlin

A quick bulletin to let you all know that we got a new PMO BUY signal on the Dow. I've been writing about this the past few days so no one should be surprised. At this point my concern again is for more whipsaw if the market takes a breath or pulls back in a holiday hangover. Despite a bearish pattern, bullish confirmations and PMO BUY signal will likely override the pattern's call for a corrective move. Look for sideways consolidation or a pullback to the rising bottoms trend line. Helpful DecisionPoint Links: Read More 

DecisionPoint

Dow Finally Breaks Out

by Erin Swenlin

If you look at the DP Scoreboards below, you'll note that the Dow is the only Scoreboard with "red" on it. It is highly likely that red arrow or PMO SELL signal will evaporate tomorrow if we see a follow-on rally or even a slight rise. I'll send out a "DP Bulletin" when/if that crossover occurs. Looking at the chart, you can see that the Dow basically spent the last half of December in a consolidation zone. The rally of yesterday and today set new all-time highs. While I have annotated a bearish rising wedge, I think "bull market rules" apply, meaning it will not likely resolve Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Whipsaw Back to BUY Signals - Dow Left Out

by Erin Swenlin

I had a bad feeling about the array of PMO SELL signals that appeared Friday and Tuesday. It wasn't worry about an upcoming decline, more the concern we'd see a whipsaw right back to BUY signals, which we did. Interestingly, the Dow was left out and remains on a PMO SELL signal as it struggles just to turn back up. You'll note under the "arrows" the date the signal generated. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's Read More 

DecisionPoint

Pausing Market Triggers Whipsaw PMO SELL Signals on DP Scoreboards - New ITTM BUY Signal for Gold

by Erin Swenlin

On Friday, the SPX, OEX and Dow logged new PMO SELL signals. This was a function of the market consolidating and holiday trading, but it is important to note that these signals are arriving in overbought territory for these PMOs. After today's trading, their PMOs are already decelerating in an attempt to turn around. This means we could see a reversal of these signals very soon.  Gold has been enjoying a strong rally and today it was confirmed by the new IT Trend Model BUY signal. Let's first look at all four of the Scoreboard indexes Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Yearly Wrap 2017

by Carl Swenlin

Last week we were looking at a rising wedge formation, which we said normally resolves downward. This week price moved through the bottom of the wedge sideways, but that doesn't really qualify as a downward resolution, which would necessarily require price to move, well, down. Friday's price bar does convey a small burst of downward energy, but the two-week trading range remains intact. Regardless of our expectations the market still didn't seem inclined to give up any ground. That could have something to do with the new tax bill -- investors waiting to take capital gains in 2018, when tax Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: NDX Logs New SELL Signal - Gold Shines - ST Indicators Rising Again

by Erin Swenlin

I hope you and yours had a fantastic and warm Christmas! As Bob Cratchit so eloquently put it, "I was making rather merry yesterday". The holidays continue as does holiday trading into the new year. We received a new PMO SELL signal on the NDX, so I've updated the DP Scoreboards accordingly. The market is taking a pause, as is the NDX which likely accounts for the drop in positive momentum. For the NDX, the PMO never really had an opportunity to put distance between it and its signal line which also contributed to the signal change. The 20-EMA is holding for the NDX, but the negative Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Bitcoin Collapse

by Carl Swenlin

Two weeks ago I led with a chart of the Bitcoin Index. It was in a dangerous parabolic advance, and I said: "Yes, price could go higher, but it is also at a point where the parabolic could collapse, and the potential downside is back down to the support of the basing pattern between 400 and 1000."  Well, it did go higher by about +15%, and this week it collapsed, down almost -40% on a closing basis. It is still far from the potential downside, but the danger has been clearly demonstrated. The Bitcoin ETF chart shows the intraday swings, and it Read More 

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