DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of DecisionPoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

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DP Bulletin: Dow Recovers PMO BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

The NDX's PMO is still in decline. The SPX and OEX have rising PMOs, but no short-term PMO BUY signals. However, the Dow has recaptured its PMO BUY signal on the daily chart. The Dow may seem to be recovering more quickly, but honestly it didn't deteriorate as much as the SPX and OEX PMOs. This gave the Dow's PMO a smaller distance to close to a new BUY signal. I note on the daily chart below that price did manage to push above the February top, but close just about on it for a mediocre breakout. I didn't care for the fact that price fell back on the close. Although the OBV is Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Pushing New Highs, but Volume Not Impressive

by Carl Swenlin

On an options expiration week we normally expect low volatility, and that is what we got this week. Despite somewhat dramatic, but opposite, moves on Wednesday and Thursday, the SPY trading range for the week was a little over two percent, and the difference between the weekly closing high and low was a little over one percent. The moral is that options expiration week usually denies all options players, whether they are looking for a big move up or a big move down. It just runs out the clock. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Skinny Breakout Fails

by Carl Swenlin

Last week I said I expected to see new, all-time highs for SPY, and on Monday that expectation was fulfilled in a marginal way. While I didn't say I expected that the market would close higher this week, it was implied, but the market's low volume and lack of follow through on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday made Friday's pullback not unexpected. It was assumed that Turkey's currency crisis pulled the plug, but the technicals were looking for it as well. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition Read More 

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DP Alert: New PMO BUY Signal on NDX - Dollar Pulls Back a Little More

by Erin Swenlin

The DecisionPoint Scoreboards are nearly all "green" with BUY signals. Today the NDX completed its green Scoreboard with a PMO BUY signal on the daily chart. The Technology Sector (XLK) and the NDX ETF (QQQ) also logged new Short-Term PMO BUY signals. It appears the tech sector is coming back with a roar. I see a bullish confirmation between PMO bottoms and price bottoms as well as OBV and price bottoms. We have a healthy rising trend channel and new all-time highs could be challenged over the next few days. The Read More 

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Dollar Gains Momentum, PMO BUY Signal Triggered

by Erin Swenlin

Yesterday's breakout on UUP was impressive and although the Dollar pulled back slightly today, it didn't matter to the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) as it crossed its signal line and triggered a BUY signal. While studying the OHLC chart for UUP, I realized if I looked at the closing prices only, there is a clear ascending triangle and yesterday it executed with the breakout above overhead resistance. Today's pullback didn't sacrifice that breakout. If we did a measurement, the minimum upside potential target is $25.70. Interestingly, when you Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Apple Hits $1 Trillion

by Carl Swenlin

On Thursday, when Apple's (AAPL) market cap went over the $1 trillion mark, Dennis Gartman (The Gartman Letter) said something to the effect that this is the kind of thing we see at market tops, not in the middle of a long advance. I felt the same way. I don't know if he does fist bumps, but I gave him an imaginary one anyway. As we can see on the chart, AAPL has had some spectacular parabolic advances, but they were followed by some horrendous declines. Sure, AAPL is a great company, but I see no reason why history won't repeat itself. Parabolic excesses need to be corrected. Read More 

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NDX Erases ST Neutral Signal - Insult to Injury...TLT Adds Another SELL Signal

by Erin Swenlin

The ST Trend Model Neutral signal that the NDX carried for a few days gave way to a new BUY signal as the 5-EMA launched above the 20-EMA on today's strong rally. I've annotated the change on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards below. TLT triggered a Long-Term Trend Model SELL signal yesterday and today it is now being followed up with a Intermediate-Term Trend Model SELL signal. I noted two days ago when the PMO and STTM generated bearish signals that the NDX was at a critical point of support where the June top and rising bottoms trendlines intersected. If the NDX Read More 

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DP Alert: TLT Triggers a Long-Term SELL Signal - Monthly Chart Review

by Erin Swenlin

The monthly charts 'went final' yesterday after the market closed, so it's time to review and prepare for next month. I highly recommend you check out the video version on today's MarketWatchers LIVE show where I had more time and space to discuss.  The DP Scoreboards are unchanged since yesterday's new Neutral and SELL signals on the NDX. Interestingly, that was one of the few indexes that managed to hold on to a positive close, along with the OEX. The DecisionPoint Alert presents an mid-week assessment of the Read More 

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DP Bulletin: NDX Loses Its Short-Lived BUY Signals

by Erin Swenlin

The DecisionPoint Scoreboards were blemished by the loss of the green BUY signals on the NDX. The weekly PMO on the Dow has been holding out for awhile, but it is rising suggesting momentum is still positive in the intermediate term. Not to be alarmist, but the NDX has reached a support level that it needs to hold. A breakdown would mean a loss of not only that support level, but also the loss of the rising bottoms trendline. The ST Trend Model Neutral signal was triggered when the 5-EMA crossed below the 20-EMA while both were above the 50-EMA. Had they both been below the 50-EMA it Read More 

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DP Bulletin: SPX Triggers New PMO BUY Signal on Weekly Chart

by Erin Swenlin

The weekly PMO BUY signal was missed by only .02 points last week, but this week it managed to log it. The Dow now remains as the only Scoreboard with a "red arrow" or SELL signal. You'll see on the weekly chart that it is nearing that signal. Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. Happy Charting! - Erin Helpful DecisionPoint Links: Erin's PMO Scan DecisionPoint Shared ChartList and DecisionPoint Chart Read More 

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