DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of Decisionpoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

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DP Bulletin: Scoreboards Lose BUY Signals

by Erin Swenlin

After deep declines today, the DP Scoreboards lost most of their short-term BUY signals. Rising wedges had appeared on the daily charts and today's decline confirmed it. The expectation is a breakdown from the wedge. The NDX is showing the most relative strength as it continues to cling to its short-term BUY signals. It's beginning to look like we will see a double-bottom rather than a "V" bottom. Be sure to read tomorrow's Weekly Wrap by Carl Swenlin, he'll go more in depth on the short- to intermediate-term market conditions. The strongest Read More 

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Monthly Chart Review of Major Indexes, Dollar, Gold, Oil and Bonds - Good, Bad & Ugly

by Erin Swenlin

The market has closed on the final day of February. This means that DecisionPoint monthly indicators have "gone final" which is the perfect time to review those signals and take a long-term view of the markets and the DecisionPoint "Big Four"- $USD, $GOLD, $WTIC & $USB. For a live review, tune in to MarketWatchers LIVE tomorrow 12:00p - 1:30p EST. First take a look at the DecisionPoint Scoreboards below. The configuration is decidedly bullish and not what you'd expect to see at the beginning of a bear market. The Dow is holding out. I Read More 

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DP Bulletin: SPX and OEX New BUY Signals - Beware Outside Reversal Days

by Erin Swenlin

Two items I need to call your attention to. First, the PMOs crossed their signal lines on the SPX and OEX to trigger ST PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) BUY signals. The Dow's PMO is stubbornly staying below its signal line, but that should disappear tomorrow given it's only two hundredths of a point away. That brings up item number two. I noticed clear outside reversal bars on all but the Dow. Below are the charts for the SPX and OEX. I've also added the NDX to point out the clear outside reversal bars. This is similar to an engulfing candle, but the high on Read More 

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Flags Execute on Major Indexes - New BUY Signals on DP Scoreboards

by Erin Swenlin

The DP Scoreboard transformation actually began on Friday when the NDX grabbed a new PMO BUY signal after already logging a ST Trend Model BUY signal. It appears the other indexes are falling in line as their 5-EMAs crossed above 20-EMAs to generate ST Trend Model BUY signals too. When you look at the Scoreboard charts, you'll notice a few commonalities. First, most have formed bull flags and are now executing those flags. Second, I'll be writing another signal change article tomorrow (unless we see a steep decline) as all three PMO SELL signals will likely switch to BUY signals. This will Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Promising Flag Formation

by Carl Swenlin

Nothing has happened this week to support my belief that we are in a bear market. If the market were in that much trouble, it seems to me that this week it should have headed lower. Instead, it has consolidated and formed a bullish flag formation. If the flag fulfills the technical expectation, price will move up and challenge the all-time highs set in January. If I'm right about the bear market, that's not going to happen. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P Read More 

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Why So Down on Gold?

by Erin Swenlin

I was asked during the MarketWatchers LIVE program today about my thoughts regarding Gold v. Dollar and particularly, why I'm bearish on Gold right now. I'll explain. The chart for Gold is bearish on many counts. First there is the PMO with its "bear kiss" of the signal line and continued decline. The chart pattern that is forming is a bearish double-top. The pattern will be confirmed when price breaks down below the neckline. The minimum downside target is calculated by taking the height of the pattern and extending from the neckline lower. In this case we can see that the target would Read More 

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DP Alert - ST Indicators Suggest Pullback

by Erin Swenlin

The NDX switched back to a Short-Term Trend Model BUY Signal on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. The 5-EMA crossed above the 20-EMA which triggered the signal (the chart is below the scoreboards for your review). The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. To ensure that using this reference will be quick and painless, we are as brief as possible, and sometimes we let a chart speak for itself Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Bear Market Rally Over?

by Carl Swenlin

Last Friday the market executed a bullish intraday reversal, and this week it rallied five days straight; however, there were some problems. S&P 500 volume contracted into the rally, and Friday's candlestick was a bearish shooting star. I don't really use candlesticks much, but the shooting star is a fairly reliable sign of a short-term top. Another troublesome issue is the OBV reverse divergence. In this case, price is lower than the January high, while OBV is higher than its January top. A lot of up volume is being expended without a commensurate move in price. Not good. Read More 

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DP Alert: Bullish Indicators - Gold Surges...For Now

by Erin Swenlin

The DecisionPoint Scoreboards didn't show any improvement from last week as the neutral and sell signals remained in the short term. PMO SELL signals are not yet on the weekly charts for these indexes, but they are lining up. If we see a pullback on the recent rally, we will likely see these PMO Sell signals on the Scoreboards this Friday or next. For a look at those charts, go to the DecisionPoint LIVE ChartList. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition Read More 

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Indicators Turning Up But is Correction Over?

by Erin Swenlin

The question that continues to arise this month is, "Is it over?". This correction was deeper than many expected or was about as deep as expected but it occurred so quickly. I'm finally getting some good news on my intermediate-term indicators, but not enough for me to trumpet the end of this correction. Interestingly, short-term indicators which have been so oversold the last two days, jumped up into neutral territory. Before talking about the indicators, I think we should look at the SPY and see what price support/resistance is suggesting along with the Price Momentum Oscillator Read More 

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