DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of Decisionpoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: UUP PMO SELL Signal - IT Indicators Toppy

by Erin Swenlin

The DecisionPoint Scoreboards remain completely "green". Hard to argue with the strength of this bull market in all three timeframes. However, the intermediate-term indicators are trying to top and have a negative crossover. ST indicators continue to fall. The Dollar looks very weak and it is getting more bearish as BUY signals continue to fall away for UUP. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the nine SPDR Read More 

DecisionPoint

Using Volatility Index Charts to Analyze Short-Term Trading Conditions

by Erin Swenlin

I am often asked why I use an inverted scale on my Volatility Index charts. The answer is that I find it to be an excellent overbought/oversold indicator in the short term when it's flipped. Typically it is said that if the VIX is low that is bullish for the market because there is complacency or a lack of fear of investing. I agree that in the big or slightly longer-term picture that is true. However, I think that many miss out on the 'sentiment' value of the VIX. Remember that sentiment readings are contrarian. So, if everyone is bullish, that is bearish for the market in the shorter Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: PMO BUY for NDX Finally - Gold Sentiment Suggests Rally

by Erin Swenlin

The only red arrow left on the DP Scoreboards was erased today as the NDX triggered a PMO BUY signal on the daily chart. The last time we saw no red on the Scoreboards, it lasted about two days. The bull winds are blowing hard, so I think this all "green" board should stick around a bit longer. STOCKS IT Trend Model: BUY as of 11/15/2016 LT Trend Model: BUY as of 4/1/2016 The 10 minute bar chart suggests to me we are about to experience some "pause". First it looks like a possible Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: NAAIM Exposure Index Highest Reading Ever

by Carl Swenlin

This week the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) Exposure Index reached the highest reading since its inception in 2006. Rather than stay 100% invested, NAAIM members will raise or lower their fund's market exposure based upon their assumptions regarding future market action. The potential range of the Index is +200% to -200%, but historically it has ranged from slightly below zero to around +100%. This week it hit +109.4%, and as a sentiment indicator I'm wondering how we should interpret it. Looking at previous performance, there Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Short-Term Head & Shoulders Still Viable on Dollar (UUP)

by Erin Swenlin

No new changes to the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. The NDX is holding onto its PMO SELL signal and it still has some margin to cover before the new PMO BUY signal can generate. Of particular interest today, and of course coming on the heels of a very bullish blog on the Dollar, today's drop could be starting the beginning of a right shoulder. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the nine SPDR Read More 

DecisionPoint

Utilities Sector Dimming - UUP Garners a New IT Trend Model BUY

by Erin Swenlin

We've seen some very interesting sector rotation this past year as the market continues to climb higher. Money doesn't seem to really be leaving the market, just rotating from one sector to the next. The Utilities sector was a good run through October and into November. However, it appears money has been rotating out (along with the technology sector which has been lagging) and moving toward Financials and Industrials. Just look at the Dow and SPX which both hit all-time highs today. The Dollar is showing improvement despite some bearish features on its chart. Yesterday saw a new PMO BUY Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Short-Term and Intermediate-Term Indicators Bullish - NDX STTM BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

On Friday, the NDX logged a new ST Trend Model BUY signal. Currently DP indicators are looking bullish and seeing improvement in the technology sector is encouraging for the market in general. I did point out on today's MarketWatchers LIVE show that one could make a case for a head and shoulders formation developing. A few problems with this conclusion..NDX is still in a strong bull market so the effectiveness of a bearish pattern is tilted toward NOT forming. Additionally, it isn't a head and shoulders until it executes and that would require a decline from here and a breakdown below Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: BitBubble

by Carl Swenlin

In the DP Weekly Wrap I normally lead with a chart of the market, but this week Bitcoin was so prominent in the news, I thought a chart of the Bitcoin Index would be more appropriate. What we have here is a classic parabolic advance (the red arc), with price moving from about $400 in 2016 to almost $16,000 yesterday. Also impressive is the recent advance of +154% in just under four weeks, but we can see that the advance has become about as vertical as it could possibly be. The message I want to convey is that this kind of chart pattern is extremely dangerous. Yes, price could go higher Read More 

DecisionPoint

Bull/Bear Market Rules and Head & Shoulders Patterns (UUP and TLT)

by Erin Swenlin

I'm sure many have heard the phrases, "Bull Market Rules Apply" or "Bear Market Rules Apply". I thought today I'd give you two examples of how these "rules" interact with chart patterns. In particular, a previous reverse head and shoulders on UUP and the break up of a head and shoulders pattern on TLT. Before I get to that, how do you determine which rules should be applied? Using DecisionPoint analysis, it's pretty easy. The DecisionPoint Long-Term Trend Model helps us to determine which rules to follow. The LT Trend Model triggers SELL signals when the 50-EMA crosses below Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Indicators Topping - Gold Triggers PMO SELL and STTM SELL Signals - NDX STTM Neutral

by Erin Swenlin

First and foremost I am pointing out the new ST Trend Model Neutral signal that arrived today on the NDX. Despite attempting to rally from the recent decline, price was unable to move high enough to prevent this Neutral signal from appearing. Today I discussed with Tom thoughts on whether we are looking at a small bounce off a decline or a last gasp before more decline. I'm of the thought that the decline and weakness are still a problem and with this signal, a big problem. Looking at the chart, I think there is more downside to digest with a move likely to support at 6200. At that point Read More 

Subscribe to DecisionPoint to be notified whenever a new post is added to this blog!