DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of DecisionPoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

DecisionPoint

SPX Whipsaw Signals on Buying Initiation - PMO SELL Yesterday, PMO BUY Today

by Erin Swenlin

I had a feeling we would see a whipsaw right after I switched the SPX Scoreboard to a Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL Signal. The margin was incredibly thin between the PMO and its signal line. With today's rally and the market making its way to a new all-time closing high, I could see it was already moving back to a BUY. This one should stick. The daily chart is getting more bullish than it already was, as it appears the bearish ascending wedge will not play out with a breakdown. Today, price not only closed at an all-time high, but it also broke out above the Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP WEEKLY WRAP: New All-Time Highs, or Not?

by Carl Swenlin

As we can see on the chart below, none of the major market indexes have exceeded their previous all-time highs. So why are we having this discussion? The point is that price history for traditional market indexes is not adjusted for dividends, so they do not reflect a true total return. It is the same as using stock data that hasn't been adjusted for dividends -- you don't get an accurate picture of how today's price relates to previous prices. The ETF versions of these indexes do present an accurate relationship, and the ETF version of the S&P 500 Read More 

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DP Alert: Buying Exhaustion Alongside a Broadening Pattern - XLV IT Neutral Signal

by Erin Swenlin

At this point in the week, the SPX is down about 0.23%. I suspect there will be more downside to endure going into the last half of the week. We don't talk about broadening patterns too much, but, in the very short-term, those are what I'm seeing on the SPX and they typically resolve downward. The VIX is now suggesting a buying exhaustion lining up as well. The good news is that the defensive Health Care Sector ETF (XLV) did trigger an IT Trend Model Neutral signal. I'd prefer everyone pitch in on a rally to new all-time highs, but if I'm going to lose a BUY signal, I'd rather it be in a Read More 

DecisionPoint

Gold Loses Its Shine - IT Trend Model Neutral Signal - IT PMO SELL Signal Nearing

by Erin Swenlin

Today, DecisionPoint reported a new Intermediate-Term Trend Model Neutral signal on Gold to Timer Digest. The signal was triggered when the 20-EMA crossed below the 50-EMA. It wasn't a SELL signal, as the 20/50-EMA crossover occurred above the 200-EMA. Don't let the "neutral" moniker fool you, though; Gold is looking quite bearish right now in all three timeframes and, full disclosure, I sold my GLD stock. Today, a significant price drop pulled price below what had previously held as strong support. The breakdown is not Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP WEEKLY WRAP: Nasdaq and NYSE Bullish Percent Lagging Behind

by Carl Swenlin

One of the market indicators available on StockCharts.com is the Bullish Percent Index (BPI), which calculates the percentage of stocks in a given index that are on point and figure BUY signals. On the chart below we can see the BPI for the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, and NYSE composite. All three BPIs were at their highest levels in early-2018, but note the BPI negative divergences at the September 2018 price top. It is a clear case of fewer stocks supporting the price advance, with predictable results. Currently, all three indexes are approaching record price highs. The S&P Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: New BUY Signal for Gold - TLT Rallies Off Support Despite PMO SELL Signal

by Erin Swenlin

There are no changes this week on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards or on the DecisionPoint Sector Scoreboard. The market appears strong, but there are a few items under the hood I'm concerned about. Good news for Gold as it just triggered a Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal today. Bonds (TLT) just rallied off the 20-EMA even after a PMO SELL signal appeared a few days ago. The DecisionPoint Alert presents a mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil and Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP WEEKLY WRAP: Overhead Resistance Near; VIX Overbought

by Carl Swenlin

An inverted VIX with Bollinger Bands is a pretty good overbought/oversold indicator, and it is overbought when the VIX hits the upper band as it almost did today. "Almost" might be good enough this time, or we may have to wait a few days for the real deal, but it is close enough to get my attention. Not only is the VIX overbought, the S&P 500 (SPY) has nearly reached last year's all-time highs, which is a significant level of overhead resistance. Below we will be looking at the condition of other indicators to see if they pose additional obstacles to higher prices. Read More 

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DP Alert: ST PMO BUY Signals on All Four Scoreboard Indexes

by Erin Swenlin

Yesterday, the NDX started the PMO BUY signal party by adding the first Short-Term PMO BUY signal. Today, the other three indexes clicked ST PMO BUY signals as well. Below the Scoreboard are the charts of each signal. The Dow is struggling with overhead resistance. The NDX had a convincing breakout today after getting its PMO BUY signal yesterday. The OEX looks like the SPX, with a bearish rising wedge still intact. The DecisionPoint Alert presents a mid-week Read More 

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DP WEEKLY/MONTHLY WRAP: Broad Market Divergences

by Carl Swenlin

This is a new chart I will be adding to my weekly commentary. My concentration has always been on the S&P 500 Index, but I realized that I needed to broaden my scope somewhat to include other segments of the the broad market, and this is my first effort. The idea is to get a quick scan to see if something needs a closer look. First, we notice that these indexes can be in agreement, as they were last fall. The S&P 500 made a December top beneath the November top, and the other indexes did the same. More recently the S&P 500 made a March top higher than the February top, but the Read More 

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DP Alert: Short-Term Shake Up on Scoreboards - Bearish Wedge Nearly Executes

by Erin Swenlin

The OEX and Dow lost short-term BUY signals on Monday and the NDX followed today, having switched out of a ST PMO BUY signal. I thought it was time to do a review of the Scoreboard indexes, so their charts are below. Additionally, you'll find my regular mid-week review of the SPX, indicators and "Big Four." The Dow appears to have a double-top forming; it will become official should it execute with a drop below the confirmation line (about 25250). The minimum downside target for the pattern would be a move down to 24250. Currently, the 50-EMA is providing Read More 

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