DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of Decisionpoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Indicators Topping - Gold Triggers PMO SELL and STTM SELL Signals - NDX STTM Neutral

by Erin Swenlin

First and foremost I am pointing out the new ST Trend Model Neutral signal that arrived today on the NDX. Despite attempting to rally from the recent decline, price was unable to move high enough to prevent this Neutral signal from appearing. Today I discussed with Tom thoughts on whether we are looking at a small bounce off a decline or a last gasp before more decline. I'm of the thought that the decline and weakness are still a problem and with this signal, a big problem. Looking at the chart, I think there is more downside to digest with a move likely to support at 6200. At that point Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Blowoff

by Carl Swenlin

There were a couple of news stories on which to blame Friday's pullback, but my opinion is that the vertical up move of the prior three days was a short-term blowoff that needed to be corrected. The blowoff is most readily identified by the rapidly expanding volume midweek, capped by a buying climax on Thursday. I usually include the SPX volume panel with the SPY chart because it tells the story of the S&P 500, whereas SPY volume is all about the ETF. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition Read More 

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Dow Logs New PMO BUY Signal - UUP Triggers an IT Trend Model SELL Signal

by Erin Swenlin

Two important signal changes arrived today that you need to know about. First, the Dow Industrials triggered a new ST PMO BUY signal. Talk about a bifurcated market, the NDX gets a PMO SELL signal yesterday and today the Dow continues its parabolic rise and logs a BUY signal. The second signal is the new IT Trend Model SELL signal on the Dollar (UUP). After reviewing UUP in yesterday's DP Alert, I did warn everyone that this was coming.  Here's a look at the Dow's new PMO BUY signal. I wasn't exaggerating about a parabolic move on the industrials. I always get Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: PMO SELL Signal on NDX - SPX Indicators Very Bullish

by Erin Swenlin

Technology fell apart today as money appeared to be rotating out of technology and into financials which had a brilliant day. The PMO was yanked down below its signal line on the NDX. Yesterday, the PMO was rising and price looked strong. What a difference a day can make. Meanwhile, the SPX and OEX had very small declines today and the Dow actually finished up 0.44%. Support is not that far away at 6200, but the amount of money flying out of technology today has the earmarks of an initiation. High volume selling with a deep decline and a new PMO SELL Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Scoreboard Shake Up

by Erin Swenlin

After today's rallies and big breakouts, it shouldn't surprise anyone that the OEX and SPX finally shed their PMO SELL signals. What is interesting is the Dow's 'laggard' status on triggering a PMO BUY signal. It is the last SELL signal standing. I'll give you a peek into all four charts with my DP analysis slant. Stay tuned tomorrow for a "DP Alert" article where I'll review all of the indicators, as well as the "big four"--Dollar, Oil, Gold and Bonds. You'll note on all but the NDX chart, a clear consolidation zone that performed well to Read More 

DecisionPoint

Wall Street Sentiment Soars Bullish - IT Indicators Bottom - TLT at a Decision Point

by Erin Swenlin

I have a few DecisionPoint charts that are "must-see" right now. Anytime I look at my ChartLists and a chart smacks me in the face, I always try to share it. Today during the MarketWatchers LIVE show, two of those charts got me and the third, Carl slid my way to make sure I saw it. Glad I did!  Carl sent me the Wall Street Sentiment Survey chart. I generally review this on the MarketWatchers LIVE show, but didn't get an opportunity with the jam packed show we recorded today. I think a quick look at this chart, even without annotations, would have popped you in the nose too! The Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: No Holiday Surprises

by Carl Swenlin

Thanks mostly to a pop on Tuesday the market once again moved to new, all-time highs. Typical of holiday trading volume was lower than average, except for Tuesday, which had a surge confirming the price advance. Positive market action on a holiday week was no surprise, considering the persistent strength of the current bull market. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. STOCKS IT Read More 

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DP Bulletin #2: Here and Gone...NDX Switches Back to PMO BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

You know you're in trouble when you wake up and find a snarky tweet about the timeliness of a particular signal change. That was the case this morning when I got the tweet about the NDX PMO SELL signal that arrived after the market closed yesterday. Today, the PMO whipsawed and easily discarded the PMO SELL signal. I did mention that the margin was exceedingly thin and whipsaw could be a factorand still could be, for that matter.  Today's breakout to new highs certainly confirms the PMO BUY signal which was triggered when the PMO crossed above its signal Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP BULLETIN: NDX Generates PMO SELL Signal

by Erin Swenlin

As promised to the MarketWatchers LIVE viewers and my DecisionPoint Faithful, I am updating you on the latest DP Scoreboard signal change. The NDX's momentum finally deteriorated enough to generate a PMO SELL Signal. The other three indexes (SPX, OEX, INDU) triggered PMO SELL signals earlier this month. I'm noticing a small double-top formation now on the NDX. An execution would require a drop below 6240 and the expected minimum downside target would be close to support at 6100. Seeing small-caps increasing positive momentum, I'm not so sure we'll see a big drop in the NDX. The Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Incongruous Sentiment

by Carl Swenlin

When I posted the NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers) Exposure Index this week, I thought to myself, "What's wrong with this picture?". To clarify, rather than stay fully invested all the time, NAAIM members adjust their exposure based upon their assessment of market conditions, and exposure can be anywhere from +200% to -200%. Although, the Exposure Index has never been anywhere close to those extremes, it does, however, give a good reading of sentiment among this group of professionals. What I noticed is that NAAIM exposure has Read More 

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