DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of Decisionpoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

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Indicators Turning Up But is Correction Over?

by Erin Swenlin

The question that continues to arise this month is, "Is it over?". This correction was deeper than many expected or was about as deep as expected but it occurred so quickly. I'm finally getting some good news on my intermediate-term indicators, but not enough for me to trumpet the end of this correction. Interestingly, short-term indicators which have been so oversold the last two days, jumped up into neutral territory. Before talking about the indicators, I think we should look at the SPY and see what price support/resistance is suggesting along with the Price Momentum Oscillator Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Think Bear Market

by Carl Swenlin

Last week I asserted that the character of the market had changed from super bullish to normal bullish, by which I meant that we should start to see more normal bull market corrections. On Monday I quickly revised that opinion and told Erin that I thought we may have entered a bear market. It is, of course, too early to have long-term technical confirmation of a bear market, but it is not too early to anticipate that bearish outcomes will be a lot more likely than we have seen in the prior two years. The last two weeks have provided plenty of evidence in this regard. Read More 

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DP Bulletin: TLT New Long-Term Trend Model SELL Signal - ST Indicators Extremely Oversold

by Erin Swenlin

Two charts you should look at now. I mentioned yesterday that TLT was going to see a Long-Term Trend Model SELL signal today and it did. Additionally, ST indicators which had turned up have turned back down and have reached down into very oversold extremes. While the PMO may appear very oversold, it's not. If you take the daily chart out about 5 or 6 years, you'll see the normal range is between +2.5 to -2.5. The PMO can drop further and it doesn't appear interested in a bottom. I'm looking for the completion of the double-top pattern which would bring price down to $114. Read More 

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DP Alert: New PMO BUY Signal on Dollar - TLT Narrowly Misses Long-Term SELL Signal

by Erin Swenlin

No one can deny that this correction has been difficult and it has certainly left investors uneasy. However, the VIX is calming down somewhat and the Swenlin Trading Oscillators have bottomed. I don't think the market is completely out of the woods from an intermediate-term indicator perspective. UUP garnered a new BUY signal just as TLT nearly triggered a new LT Trend Model SELL signal. Look for that signal tomorrow. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Read More 

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DP Bulletin: ST Trend Model Neutrals on Scoreboard Indexes - PMO SELL for Gold

by Erin Swenlin

Today all four Scoreboard indexes (NDX, INDU, SPX & OEX) logged new Short-Term Trend Model Neutral signals. These signals arrived when the 5-EMA crossed below the 20-EMA while the 20-EMA was above the 50-EMA. In addition, we saw a new PMO SELL signal on Gold. I've included the charts below for your review. We honestly shouldn't be overly surprised by the depth of this correction given the parabolic rallies that all of these indexes have been in for some time. I've written quite a few articles on parabolic formations and when they fail, they FAIL, quickly. The good news is that we Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Inadequate Correction

by Carl Swenlin

Because the DP Weekly Wrap is a recap of the week just ended, I normally lead with a daily chart; however, since there is so much agony being expressed about this week's correction, I am leading with a monthly chart to try to put things in proper perspective. Note that in 2015 price departed from the secular bull market rising trend line by +27%. To correct that excess the market moved sideways into the 2016 low, and then the cyclical bull market began. By the end of last month price had departed from the secular bull market trend line by +40%, which is certainly a good definition of Read More 

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What's the Difference Between the PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) and MACD/PPO?

by Erin Swenlin

I am often asked first, "What's the difference between the PMO and the MACD (or PPO)?" which is usually followed by, "Why do you prefer the PMO?". I'll answer the second question right now. As a mother loves her child, so do I love the PMO--I was involved in its development. However, that's only part of it. The main reason is that having studied all three indicators, I believe the PMO is the most robust. The best place to start is by looking at each indicator and how it works. By understanding the basics of the equations and meaning of each, you can make an informed decision about Read More 

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$VIX Flying High, This Has Bullish Implications

by Erin Swenlin

One chart that I have been watching very closely is the DecisionPoint Climactic Indicator chart. I use this chart to give me an idea of very short-term sentiment and how to use it to determine possible tops and bottoms. Today I'm seeing some extremes that could be telling us to expect a turnaround by week's end. Granted it's been only one day of real decline, but many viewers of MarketWatchers LIVE were hinting at some major discomfort with today's price action which to me proves the point that sentiment moved very bearish today. Sentiment is contrarian, so this is bullish for the very Read More 

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Mid-Cap and Small-Cap ETFs Deteriorating (IJH & IJR)

by Erin Swenlin

It is very tough to find weakness in the major indexes as they continue to fly higher. However, I was reviewing my DecisionPoint LIVE ChartList and noted that we are seeing a few warning signs on the small and mid-cap ETFs, IJR and IJH.  Currently, both IJH and IJR have PMOs that have topped. All of the major large cap indexes that we follow on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards (NDX, OEX, Dow, SPX) have PMOs that are rising. Relatively speaking, IJH has more problems than IJR. The mid-caps topped last week and have yet to set a new intraday high. Price is now sitting along Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Market Pumps; Dollar Dumps

by Carl Swenlin

This week the market underwent a horrifying intraday reversal. Just kidding. There was a surprising reversal on Wednesday, but by the close SPY was virtually unchanged. We can see on the chart that at the intraday low the steep January rising trend line was barely tested. And in the context of January's advance it is as if nothing dramatic happened at all. Which, I guess, it didn't. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Read More 

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