DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of Decisionpoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Weak Volume Undermines Rally

by Carl Swenlin

Market action was a little choppy this week, but SPY managed to eke out a small gain; unfortunately, volume was weak and did not confirm the rally. The PMO bottomed and crossed up through the signal line, giving a PMO BUY signal. But the PMO is running kind of flat, so that signal looks a bit thin. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. SECTORS Each S&P 500 Index component stock Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Bulletin #2: OEX Hops Aboard the PMO BUY Signal Train

by Erin Swenlin

Another new signal to report on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards, the OEX has logged a Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal to join the Dow which triggered its PMO BUY signal yesterday. The NDX PMO has some distance to close before we'll see its signal change. Tomorrow, the SPX will change to a PMO BUY signal, the PMO only missed that BUY signal by less than .01. The double-top on the OEX triggered when price dropped below the confirmation line at the early March low. It fell and successfully tested support at the February low and has since been chopping around between Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Bulletin: Dow is First to Regain Short-Term PMO BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

The Dow is the first to shed it's previous Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL signal. The SELL signal had been in place since 2/2/18. Found it interesting that the earliest PMO SELL signal on the DP Scoreboards managed to move to a BUY signal before all of the more recent March PMO SELL signals on the OEX, SPX and NDX. However, if you look at the charts, you'll see that the SPX and OEX whipsawed their PMO signals which moved the date up. The NDX just took longer given the strong positive momentum it had during the parabolic rally. The PMO BUY Read More 

DecisionPoint

Small-Cap ETFs In Trouble - Possible Head and Shoulders Formations

by Erin Swenlin

After the market close, my technical alert activated on IJR, the S&P 600 ETF with a new Intermediate-Term Trend Model Neutral signal. I noted that this same signal has already been hit on IWM, the Russell 2000 ETF. While I believe we are in a consolidation or shake out with a follow-up rally likely coming in the market, I'm not yet convinced the bull market is or will resume anytime soon. I'm sure it hasn't passed notice that Carl and I have been more bearish than most based on sector rotation study, our indicators and now I'm seeing small-cap charts setting up for decline, not rebound Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Choppy Week Closes Down

by Carl Swenlin

On the SPY chart last week I thought I saw a reverse flag formation, although it was not as tightly defined as I would like. This week the market thrashed around pretty badly, and although the flag didn't become more visible, there is still a ragged cluster of price bars that, in my opinion, serves the same purpose. A case can still be made for a double bottom, but I think the ragged cluster is a continuation pattern calling for lower prices. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock Read More 

DecisionPoint

Indicators - ST Overbought with Negative Divergences Sprinkled on Top

by Erin Swenlin

It was heady to feel the bullish exuberance pulsing around the MarketWatchers LIVE show, but now that the day is over and the indicators are ready for review. I was seriously disappointed not to see the supporting evidence I wanted so I too could enjoy some bullish exuberance. Our poll question today was a bit unfair, but certainly represented the excitement and poked a little fun about not being on the bull band wagon. The current results are below. Note my vote was "stuck in neutral". I still feel good about that vote, especially after reviewing DecisionPoint indicators. Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Bounce Back for Cyclicals and Technology Eases Bear Market Fears

by Erin Swenlin

I was concerned earlier this week when we lost the IT Trend Model BUY signals in the aggressive technology and cyclicals sectors. However, both of these sectors have surged over the past two days which does allay fears of a bear market setting up. You'll see below the Sector Scoreboard, the one week and one month performance from the Sector Summary Report which shows you that over the past month defensive sectors were "leading" (some were just not losing as much as others) but now within the past week we see Technology and Consumer Discretionary coming back to life. I wrote an Read More 

DecisionPoint

Intermediate-Term Trend Model NEUTRAL Triggered on NDX - No ITTM BUY Signals on SPDRs

by Erin Swenlin

Today the NDX succumbed to peer pressure and dropped its Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY signal. The Scoreboards below are clear: Long term has a bullish bias, but serious damage has been done in the short and intermediate terms.  The IT Trend Model signals are based on 20/50-EMA crossovers in relation to the 200-EMA. Today the NDX 20-EMA crossed below the 50-EMA while the 50-EMA was above the 200-EMA. This is a Neutral signal. If the 50-EMA had been below the 200-EMA (bearish configuration), the 20/50-EMA negative crossover would've been a "SELL" signal. DecisionPoint Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly/Monthly Wrap: Is That a Reverse Flag?

by Carl Swenlin

Last week the market broke down from a rising wedge pattern and dove into a scary decline. This week was choppy and wild, but price stayed within a somewhat ragged range that looks to me like a bearish reverse flag formation. Price remained above the 200EMA, and every day volume was a bit above the one-year average of volume. Has there been a successful retest, or is there more trouble ahead? The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Read More 

DecisionPoint

New ST PMO BUY Signal for UUP - Sector Rotation On Defense

by Erin Swenlin

The Dollar has been poised for a breakout for some time. The PMO has been rising nicely, but UUP has been banging its head on overhead resistance with not much success. Looking at the big picture, relative strength has been shuffling toward defensive sectors like Consumer Staples and Utilities which should make investors uneasy. Since forming the double-bottom back in January/February, I've been bullish on the Dollar but it has struggled. In fact, the double-bottom pattern was scrubbed when the final breakout in March didn't take. Price has been pounding on overhead resistance with no Read More 

Subscribe to DecisionPoint to be notified whenever a new post is added to this blog!