DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of Decisionpoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

DecisionPoint

S&P 600 Bounces Off Support - IT Indicators Oversold

by Erin Swenlin

I had this article in the queue yesterday with the headline "S&P 600 Nearing Important Support". Well, it turned out to be a bounce off that support today. Small-caps have been hit hard while most large-cap indexes spent the last month consolidating and moving slightly lower. You could say $SML had a correction over the last month. Nice thing is that I can use the word "had" when referring to a correction on $SML. Today's rally seems to be the real deal as it not only bounced off support, but also punctured resistance at the late October lows. One thing I was going to note Read More 

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DP Alert: SPY Rising Trend Channel Broken - DP Indicators Bearish in ST and IT - PMO SELL on UUP

by Erin Swenlin

Since November 9th, the DP Scoreboards have been quiet. It isn't surprising to see the weakness on these Scoreboards to be short-term momentum given the recent decline. The SPY/SPX have now dropped below rising trend channels, but support remains. With DP indicators looking bearish, we could be in for more downside in both the short and intermediate terms. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the nine SPDR Sectors Read More 

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HALO - Angel or Devil?

by Erin Swenlin

As part of the MarketWatchers LIVE show (airs M-F, 12p-1:30p - You'll find today's recording under the "Webinars" tab), Tom Bowley and I come up with set-ups on Monday. We call the segment "Monday Set-Ups". This segment has an eye toward very short-term investments as Tom and I compete to see who had the best returns on the following Monday. I use my PMO Scan exclusively to come up with my Monday Set-Ups (you'll find the article with the scan language here). I thought today's set up was very promising for the short term, but also in the intermediate term, so I thought I would share Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Buy the Dip? What Dip?

by Carl Swenlin

I should probably watch less business news, but I only have it on to catch any big news developments, and the sound is usually off. Nevertheless, I can't avoid some stuff that I'd rather filter out. For example, there was talk on Thursday and Friday about whether investors should be "buying the dip." To clarify, the distance from Tuesday's intraday all-time high to Thursday's intraday low was -1.2%. The distance from Wednesday's all-time closing high to Thursday's close was -0.4%. In my experience, that ain't a dip, but the discussion shows how rose-colored the crowd's view has become Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Bulletin: NDX Only PMO BUY Signal Left - Gold PMO BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

Today's decline was enough to push the OEX and Dow PMO BUY signals off the DP Scoreboards. The NDX is still looking good with the PMO actually rising right now. However, if the other indexes continue to decline, it is very likely the NDX will follow suit. Gold received a new PMO BUY signal while price easily holds support. We're seeing breaks below rising trend channels on Dow and OEX. I've annotated areas of possible support. 23000 is a likely stopping point if it cannot hold onto the 20-EMA. Given the close was nearly within the rising trend channel, this doesn't have the Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Bulletin: IT Trend Model BUY Signal for Bonds (TLT)

by Erin Swenlin

As noted, a new technical alert arrived in my email inbox this afternoon. I was surprised that I didn't receive word of any DP Scoreboard PMO signal changes, but seeing TLT grab an ITTM BUY signal wasn't surprising. I think TLT is at an interesting "decision point" right now. Here's a look at the daily, weekly and monthly charts. An Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY signal is generated when the 20-EMA crosses above the 50-EMA. The daily chart looks pretty good. The PMO is rising nicely along with the OBV and SCTR. What could be a problem is overhead resistance around $127 for TLT. A Read More 

DecisionPoint

DecisionPoint Alert: SPX Back on PMO SELL - Oil Flourishes, Gold Support Holding Strong

by Erin Swenlin

Yes, the PMO BUY signal on the SPX has already disappeared. Unfortunately with the margin so thin between the PMO and its signal line (thousandths of a point), this likely will change again tomorrow if the SPX can close higher. What is interestingthe SPY never managed a PMO BUY Signal and it has now topped below its signal line. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the nine SPDR Sectors, the U.S. Dollar, Gold Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Bulletin: New PMO BUY Signal on SPX - Scoreboards All Green!

by Erin Swenlin

It's official! All four DecisionPoint Scoreboards are on BUY signals in all three timeframes on the PMO and Trend Models. Tom Bowley and I continue to discuss during the MarketWatchers LIVE show about the hurricane force bull market winds. If these Scoreboards don't convince you, I'm not sure what will. Bull market rules definitely apply right now. What does that mean? Simply put, don't worry so much about overbought conditions and expect bullish conclusions to chart patterns and support/resistance levels. This is NOT to say that we have an unending bull market or are not vulnerable to a Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Not Out of the Woods Yet

by Carl Swenlin

Of my comment, "Not out of the woods yet," you might ask, "What woods?" The market, after all, did manage to grind higher this week, so what's the problem? The problem that I see is a persistent weakness in our intermediate-term indicators, but we will get into that later. More immediately, we note that this week higher prices were accompanied by much higher than average S&P 500 volume. This could be a sign of distribution. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market Read More 

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Don't Trust the Headlines: "This Stock is Going to Soar!"

by Erin Swenlin

I know we all have seen the commercials for the newest or best investment of the decade. Now we are getting emails flooding our inboxes claiming to have an "investment of a lifetime"! I'm not saying that these are traps or always bad, but I can tell you, before you believe the amazing claims, a look at the chart is a MUST. I was recently sent a question via email with an attachment of one of these such headlines on BioHiTech Global (BHTG). I generally can't review or answer all of my emailed chart suggestions, but the headline was just "too good". I had to see this chart.  Read More 

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