DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of DecisionPoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly/Monthly Wrap: Failure to Thrive

by Carl Swenlin

This chart was added almost as an afterthought in last Friday's DP Weekly Wrap, but throughout the week I kept thinking that it should elevated to the lead chart this week. The Bullish Percent Index (BPI) shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks with point and figure (PnF) BUY signals. I have annotated three significant negative divergences. The first two show the BPI dropping while prices rise or remain flat. This undermining eventually results in sharp price pullbacks. The current divergence is different but still significant.  Here prices are pushing to record highs, but the BPI Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Possible Selling Exhaustion in Very Short Term - Stubborn Gold

by Erin Swenlin

Advances minus declines readings over the past few days are suggesting a short-term selling exhaustion. And, what's up with Gold? It's been poised to breakout for some time and we're still waiting. There were no changes to the Scoreboards this past week, but, there were two whipsaw signals that I opted not to put on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. Both the OEX and SPX had PMO BUY signals for one day that switched back to SELL signals. The Dow is still clinging to its PMO BUY signal, but its PMO is declining. The DecisionPoint Sector Scoreboard saw a new ITTM BUY on XLE yesterday which Read More 

DecisionPoint

Energy Sector Moves to IT BUY Signal - All Sectors, All on BUYs IT and LT

by Erin Swenlin

When I look at the DecisionPoint Sector Scoreboard, it is near impossible to be bearish in the longer term. When we see participation in all of the sectors that results in BUY signals across the board, the market is not generally vulnerable to a correction. Price shocks happen, but typically you will see the BUY signals start to disappear on the Scoreboard before a correction or certainly a bear market. We have not added the new Communications SPDR (XLC) to our signal table yet, but if we had, it would show an IT Trend Model Neutral signal. As I'll show you, it is nearing an IT Trend Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Two Indications of a Short-Term Top

by Carl Swenlin

The market (represented by SPY) has nearly reached the top of a rising wedge formation, and the VIX has reached the top Bollinger Band on our reverse scale display. There is no guarantee, but there is a pretty good chance that a short-term top is very near. There is also the technical expectation that price will eventually break down from the rising wedge, but not necessarily on the next pullback. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold Read More 

DecisionPoint

Natural Gas (UNG) Ready to Catch Fire

by Erin Swenlin

Today I received two bullish email alerts on Natural Gas (UNG). First, the Short-Term Trend Model had triggered a BUY signal. This means the 5-EMA just crossed above the 20-EMA. Second, there was a Short-Term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal that registered today as well. I hadn't looked at UNG charts in some time and I can see why, they've been anything but interesting. However, the daily, weekly and monthly charts all look quite bullish right now. Last June I wrote an article about a possible rebirth for XLRE based on the daily and weekly chart PMOs and Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Dow Takes the Lead with New PMO BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

Big news today was a new Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal on the Dow. I've noticed the bifurcation of the markets. Today saw a positive close for the Dow, OEX and SPX, but the NDX, $MID and $SML all closed lower. In the case of mid- and small-caps, they took back most of the gains they made yesterday.   The daily chart for the Dow shows the breakout from the consolidation channel it's been traveling in for the past month, occurred yesterday. Today's strong rally was a nice continuation. Overhead resistance is nearing at the all-time high, but the PMO is Read More 

DecisionPoint

20-Year Bonds ETF (TLT) is "Officially" in a Bear Market

by Erin Swenlin

I've been trumpeting the bearish horn on TLT for some time, but today marked a series of unfortunate events for TLT. Just last week we saw a new IT Trend Model Neutral signal and today, we got the LT Trend Model SELL signal. Add to that the execution of a serious double-top and an IT PMO SELL signal lined up for Friday on the weekly chart and you have a recipe for a long deep decline. There's a lot going on in this chart that you need to know about. When the 20-EMA crossed below the 50-EMA while both were above the 200-EMA, an Intermediate-Term Trend Model Neutral signal was born Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Gap Cleared. What's Next?

by Carl Swenlin

Last week I was concerned that the VIX had topped but had failed reach the top band on the chart -- a similar configuration occurred in January before the crash. This week the VIX moved close to the top of the channel, so I think we can consider that the 'gap' problem has cleared. (To clarify, I use an inverted scale for the VIX to make interpretation more intuitive, and my references are to that display.) The market is near all-time highs again, as it continues to walk up a parabolic arc. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Swenlin Trading Oscillators Are Perking Up - TLT IT Trend Model Neutral Signal

by Erin Swenlin

No changes to the DecisionPoint Scoreboards since the past week's PMO SELL signals were added. We've seen a slight rebound in the market the past few days and consequently, our short-term indicators are beginning to turn up from somewhat oversold territory. Unfortunately, intermediate-term indicators are still declining and some of the breadth numbers are have bearish divergences. The DecisionPoint Alert presents an mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Bulletin #1: Momentum Moves Bearish on Scoreboard Indexes - SELL Signals Reinstated

by Erin Swenlin

As of today's market close, all four Scoreboards have moved back to PMO SELL signals. The OEX was the first to go on Thursday, followed by the SPX and NDX on Friday and the Dow today. Below are the daily charts for all four indexes with the new SELL signals annotated. The Dow is within a trading zone, but I would expect a test of the rising bottoms trendline. SPX held rising bottoms support, but I don't believe it will last. 2850 (July top) is safe support, but if it were to fail, the pullback could become more serious. Read More 

Subscribe to DecisionPoint to be notified whenever a new post is added to this blog!