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Techs Lag for a Day

by Arthur Hill

The market summary page provides an excellent overview of market performance, both end-of-day and intraday. You can change the setting at the top. Notice that materials led the market on Thursday, while healthcare, consumer staples and technology lagged. It is only one day, but relative weakness in technology should be monitored closely. Read More 

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Pound ETF Forms Ascending Triangle

by Arthur Hill

After a breakout and surge from March to May, the British Pound ETF (FXB) consolidated with an ascending triangle over the last two months. Notice how FXB hit resistance at 165 a number of times since early June. Also notice that the early July reaction low is higher than the early June reaction low. A resistance breakout would confirm this bullish continuation pattern. Click this image to see more details. Read More 

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Nasdaq is 10% Above 200-day EMA

by Arthur Hill

In less than 9 months, the Nasdaq has gone from being 40% below its 200-day EMA to being 10% above its 200-day EMA. Talk about a huge swing. The percentage difference was determined using the Percentage Price Oscillator (1,200,1). This setting reflects the percentage difference between the 1-day EMA, which is the daily closing price, and the 200-day EMA.  Click this image to see more details. Read More 

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Freeport McMoran Hits the June High

by Arthur Hill

Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold (FCX) kept pace with the Nasdaq by advancing 13 of the last 14 days. In the process, the stock surged to its June high, which may offer resistance. Also notice that RSI moved above 70 to become overbought. Click this chart to see more details. Read More 

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XLF Battles Resistance

by Arthur Hill

With gains over the last few days, the Financials SPDR (XLF) is challenging an important resistance zone on the daily PnF chart. Notice that broken support (2008) around 13 turned into resistance in 2009. XLF is currently on a bullish PnF signal with a price objective around 21. A break above resistance would reinforce this bullish signal. Click on this chart for more details. Read More 

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Yield Curve Remains Steep

by Arthur Hill

The Dynamic Yield Curve shows two plots over the last eight months. The black line shows the yield curve in December, while the maroon line shows the current yield curve. Today’s yield curve is much steeper because 3-month rates are virtually unchanged since December, but longer rates have risen this year.  Read More 

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Dow Moves Above 9000

by Arthur Hill

For the first time since January, the Dow Industrials moved above the 9000 level. It took around two months to fall from 9000 to 6500 and then 4-5 months to get back above 9000 (March to July). There is potential resistance in this area, but the trend remains up. Read More 

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Stocks and Commodities Rise Together

by Arthur Hill

The inter-market relationship since early March remains in place. Stocks and commodities are up sharply over the last two weeks, but bonds and the Dollar are down. This relationship suggests that stock market weakness would lead to weakness in commodities, strength in bonds and strength in the Dollar. Read More 

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An Inside Day Brewing for RIMM

by Arthur Hill

After a long white candlestick on Monday, Research in Motion (RIMM) pulled back immediately on Tuesday with a small decline. Tuesday’s trading has been within Monday’s range thus far. Should this range hold, an inside day or harami would take shape. A harami is a potentially bearish candlestick pattern. In addition, notice that the harami is forming at retracement resistance. Read More 

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NYSE AD Line Breaks June High

by Arthur Hill

The AD Line for the NYSE remains strong after a break above the June high. In fact, the AD Line is leading the NY Composite because the latter has yet to break its June high. Leadership from the AD Line is positive for the market overall. You see breadth stats for the NYSE, Nasdaq and Amex with the CandleGlance charts. Read More 

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Dow Reclaims Two Key Moving Averages

by Arthur Hill

With a surge back above 8500 this week, the Dow Industrials reclaimed the upper ground on the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Also notice that the 50-day SMA moved above the 200-day SMA. This is also knows as a golden cross. Even though these are positive developments, keep in mind that moving averages lag and signals can be prone to whipsaws.  Click this chart to see more details. Read More 

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VIX and SPX Both Close Higher

by Arthur Hill

Despite a big surge in the S&P 500 on Wednesday, the S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) recovered from early losses and closed higher on the day. This is unusual because the VIX normally declines during a sharp stock market advance. It is just one day though. Let's see if this unusual activity continues. Click this chart to see the details. Read More 

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Nasdaq Summation Index Moves Lower

by Arthur Hill

Even though the Nasdaq is trading above its mid May levels, the Nasdaq Summation Index (green line) is trending lower. This breadth indicator suggests that a “stealth” correction is underway within the Nasdaq. In other words, stocks within the index are showing some weakness, but the index itself has yet to buckle. You can click this chart to see the details. Read More 

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Alcoa and Aluminum

by Arthur Hill

The chart below shows Alcoa (AA) with black candlesticks and the continuous futures contract for Aluminum ($ALUM). Although not perfect, there is clearly a positive correlation between the two. Overall, both have been working their way higher since March. More recently, both peaked in early June and moved lower the last few weeks. Click on this chart for details. Read More 

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Finance Leads the Market

by Arthur Hill

A look at the market carpet for Monday reveals strength in the finance sector. All sectors are up today, but the finance sector shows the most, and the darkest, green on the carpet. From the table on the right, you can also see that four of the five biggest gainers from the finance sector.  (click this image to see the details) Read More 

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Nikkei Makes it 7 Straight

by Arthur Hill

With another down day on Thursday, the Nikkei 225 ($NIKK) has now declined seven days in a row. Even though it is getting short-term oversold, it looks like a medium-term downtrend is taking shape. The index could eventually retraced 50% of the March-June advance. Read More 

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Dollar Firms as Oil and Gold Slip

by Arthur Hill

June witnessed a change in inter-market dynamics. The US Dollar Index ($USD) bounced at the beginning of June while the Gold-Continuous Futures ($GOLD) and West Texas Intermediate ($WTIC) declined in June. Gold started down first with a move lower in early June. Oil followed by moving lower the second week of June. SharpCharts users can click this chart to see the settings. Read More 

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Transports Test Triangle Support

by Arthur Hill

After forming a lower high last week, the Dow Transports declined to triangle support with a sharp move lower the last three days. As of 3PM ET on Tuesday, the Average was down over 8% from last week’s high. A triangle break would be bearish and call for a retracement of the March-May advance. SharpCharts users can click this chart to see the settings. Read More 

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RTH Breaks May Low

by Arthur Hill

The Retail HOLDRS (RTH) broke below the May low with a sharp decline last week. Overall, it appears that a double top formed in May-June. The support break confirms the pattern and this ETF could retrace around 50% of its prior advance. Sharpcharts users can click this chart to see the settings. Read More 

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TSE Hits Resistance

by Arthur Hill

With a 3000 point surge the last few months, the S&P TSX Composite ($TSE) broke through resistance and CCI moved above +100. Both events are bullish, but the index looks vulnerable to a pullback. First, CCI moved back below +100. Second, the index is up 3000 points without a correction. Look for broken resistance around 9200-9500 to turn into support. (Click on this chart to see the settings) Read More 

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Gold Lags the Euro

by Arthur Hill

Gold normally moves with the Euro, but the yellow metal has not been keeping up the last few weeks. Notice how the Euro ETF (FXE) bottomed on 15-June and moved higher the last 2-3 weeks. However, the Gold ETF (GLD) did not bottom until 22-June and has yet to break resistance (blue dotted line). (Click on this chart to see the settings) Read More 

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Stocks and Commodities Down in June

by Arthur Hill

From John Murphy’s intermarket perfchart, we can see that stocks (S&P 500) and commodities ($CRB) were down for the month of June. In contrast, Bonds ($USB) and the Dollar ($USD) were up. Strength in the greenback weighed on commodities. In addition, it appears that strength in the Dollar helped bonds. It is also possible that money rotated from stocks to bonds in June. Read More