Don't Ignore This Chart

December 2009

Don't Ignore This Chart

Techs lead the way

by Arthur Hill

The technology sector has led the market higher over the last 10 days. Using the slider at the bottom, the Sector Market Carpet is set to show price performance over the last 10 days. Technology is the greenest of the nine sectors - followed by materials, energy and financials. Click this image for details. Read More 

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Sector winners for 2009

by Arthur Hill

All sectors were up for the year, but some were up more than others. In fact, of the nine sectors, only three outperformed the S&P 500 over the last 12 months: consumer discretionary, technology and materials. The remaining six sectors were up less than the S&P 500 and underperformed for the year. Click this chart for details Read More 

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December is for Dollars

by Arthur Hill

The Perfchart below shows the DB Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) with nine other currency ETFs. Even though the Dollar is still down for the year, it is up around 4% for December. The Euro and Yen, which represent our two biggest trading partners, are down the most. Click this chart for details Read More 

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Shanghai leading at yearend

by Arthur Hill

Even though year has a few days left, the Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) is one of the top performing indices in 2009. The Perfchart below compares the performance of this Chinese index against six other major indices. The Australian All Ords Index ($AORD) is a distant second and the S&P 500 is in third place. Perhaps Australia’s proximity to China helped its performance. Click this chart for details Read More 

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Glancing at the sectors

by Arthur Hill

The CandleGlance sector page provides an easy means to see all eight Sector SPDRs on one page. One can identify sectors hitting new highs (leading) and sector trading below their prior highs (lagging). CandleGlance groups are also good candlestick spotting. Click this chart for details Read More 

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10 Most Active Perfchart

by Arthur Hill

The Free Charting Tools page shows the most active lists on the left side. There is a Perfchart link at the bottom of each list that will show the 10 most actives together. Over the last 200-day days, Ford (F) is the big winner with a gain in excess of 400%. Click this chart for details Read More 

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Dynamic yield curve remains steep

by Arthur Hill

As the dynamic yield curve shows, the Treasury yield curve remains inordinately steep. The 3-month T-Bill Rate ($IRX) is around .50% and the 30-year Treasury Yield ($TYX) is currently around 4.6%. Long-term rates are nine times higher than short-term rates. This means monetary policy at the Fed remains loose. Click this chart for details Read More 

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Semis lead Nasdaq higher

by Arthur Hill

The Santa Claus rally got off to a good start with the Semiconductors HOLDRS (SMH) leading the way higher. SMH broke flag resistance with a surge over the last two days. Also notice that semis are outperforming the broader market as the price relative moved higher in December. Click this chart for details Read More 

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10-Year Treasury Yield hits resistance

by Arthur Hill

The 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) broke above the August trendline with a surge in December. Because bonds moving opposite of yields, this corresponds to a sharp decline in US Treasury Bonds. The 10-Year Treasury Yield is now meeting resistance from the Sep-Oct-Nov highs and a breakout here would call for higher yields. Click this chart for details Read More 

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GE bucks the market

by Arthur Hill

All of the major stock indices were down Thursday afternoon, but General Electric (GE) was bucking the downdraft with a modest gain. The stock opened weak, but rallied above its prior high in the afternoon. Should current level holds, the stock would form a bullish engulfing near support. Click this chart for details Read More 

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A tough December for energy and gold

by Arthur Hill

The Commodity Groups Perfchart shows the GS Precious Metals Index ($GPX) and the GS Energy Index ($GJX) are both down over 6% so far this month. Of the five commodity groups, the GS Industrial Metals Index ($GYX) and GS Agriculture Index ($GKX) are holding up the best with small gains. Click this chart for details Read More 

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Euro breaks November low

by Arthur Hill

The Euro ETF (FXE) extended its decline this week and broke below its November low. FXE has been under intense selling pressure since the big plunge below 150 two weeks ago. In fact, selling pressure has been so intense that it looks like a medium-term downtrend has started. Click this chart for details Read More 

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Divergences fail to deter the Dow

by Arthur Hill

Despite numerous bearish divergences in MACD since August, the Dow continues pushing to new highs. With today’s close above 10500, the Dow hit another 52-week closing high today. While there will likely be a bearish divergence when the trend finally ends, it is clear that a strong uptrend trumps most bearish divergences. Click this chart for details Read More 

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NYSE AD Line hits new high

by Arthur Hill

Don’t look now, but the NYSE AD Line hit a new 52-week high this week. The AD Line is a cumulative measure of Net Advances (advances less declines). It rises when there are more advances and falls when there are more declines. This week’s new high affirms the uptrend in this key indicator. Click this chart for details Read More 

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Citrix finds support

by Arthur Hill

After a gap and sharp decline in October, Citrix (CTXS) found support near its resistance breakout (~37). Bounces in early November and early December confirm support in the 37-38 area. With a triangle consolidation taking shape the last six weeks, the direction of the breakout holds the key to the next move. Click chart for more details. Read More 

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AOL finishes with a bang

by Arthur Hill

AOL Inc (AOL/WI) returned to the big board after a nine year hiatus. The stock was already trading “when issued” (WI) before today.  AOL/WI started the day down, traded flat around 23 throughout the day and then surged with huge volume at the end of the day. Read More 

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Marriott forms harami at resistance

by Arthur Hill

For the second time in four weeks, Marriott (MAR) formed a bearish harami. The first harami marked a reaction high just below 28. This second harami formed around 27 for a possible lower high. Also notice that the trendline extending down from the October high marks resistance there. You can find a list of bearish harami at the pre-defined stock scans page. Click this chart for details Read More 

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XLU forges a 52-week high

by Arthur Hill

Seven of the nine sector SPDRs recorded new 52-week highs in November or December. Among those, the Utilities SPDR (XLU) broke resistance from its 2009 highs with a surge above 31 this month. The ETF is short-term overbought after a 10% advance the last six weeks, but the long-term trend is up.  Click this chart for details Read More 

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Short-term rates fall sharply

by Arthur Hill

The US Treasury Yield Perfchart shows yields falling since early August. In particular, short-term rates (green line) have fallen sharply in the last three months. Treasuries rise when rates fall so these declines suggest money moving into Treasuries. Click this chart for details Read More 

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Renko charts filter the noise

by Arthur Hill

The chart below shows a Renko chart for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Like Point & Figure, these charts focus on price action, independent of time. Notice that the first half of the chart extends from late October 2008 to early March 2009. The second half extends from early March to early December. A big uptrend is underway with trendline support at 108. Click this chart for details Renko charts are available under "Chart Attributes" and "Type. You can also adjust the ATR to change the size of the Renko boxes, which affects the reversals. Read More 

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Airlines go from lagging to leading

by Arthur Hill

After underperforming the S&P 500 in October, the Amex Airline Index ($XAL) reversed course to become a leader in November. This leadership role picked up steam the last three days as XAL broke above consolidation resistance. The indicator window shows the price relative ($XAL:$SPX ratio). $XAL outperforms $SPX when the ratio rises and underperforms when the ratio declines. Click this chart for details Read More 

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Japan lags Europe and China

by Arthur Hill

The US and European markets bottomed in early July and have been moving higher the last five months. These indices are up 18-23% since early July. The Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) is also up, but less than 5% and lagging the US and Europe. In stark contrast to these gainers, the Nikkei 225 ($NIKK) is down over 5% in the same timeframe. Click this chart for details Read More