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France and China Lag

by Arthur Hill

The French CAC 40 ($CAC) and the Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) are down year-to-date and lagging other world indices. In contrast, the Nikkei 225 ($NIKK) is up 3.59% this year and the S&P 500 is leading with a 8.22% gain this year. Click this image for details Read More 

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Copper hits support zone

by Arthur Hill

Copper ($COPPER) fell with the stock market over the last two weeks. And like the stock market, copper firmed on Wednesday with a support zone around 330-340. The indicator window shows copper with the S&P 500. Notice how closely these two have been tracking over the last eight months. Click this image for details Read More 

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Sprint goes for 8 straight

by Arthur Hill

Sprint (S) advanced the last seven weeks and broke triangle resistance in the process. This is the longest weekly string in over 2 1/2 years. Volume has been pretty impressive too. Click this image for details Read More 

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Elder Impulse breakout for Frontier Comm

by Arthur Hill

Frontier Communications (FTR) broke consolidation resistance with a surge above 7.6 in early April. Notice that this surge occurred with a green price bar, which indicates an upturn in the Elder Impulse System. The bars are currently blue as the stock consolidates. Look for another green bar to signal a continuation higher. Click this image for details Read More 

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Athens Index tests prior lows

by Arthur Hill

Despite a potential rescue package from the EU and IMF, the Athens General Index ($ATG) fell rather sharply over the last three days and is testing its February low. Greek equities are not impressed. Click this image for details Read More 

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Nasdaq outperformance accelerates

by Arthur Hill

The Nasdaq has been outperforming the NY Composite since December and outperformance is accelerating. The green trendline defines the first rate of outperformance. The blue trendline, which is steeper, defines the second rate of outperformance. Also notice how the Nasdaq:NY Composite price relative shot higher in April. Click this image for details Read More 

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Potash hits support

by Arthur Hill

After a sharp decline the last five weeks, Potash (POT) hit support last week and bounced this week. A nice three candlestick reversal formed Thursday-Friday-Monday, but the stock fell back on Tuesday-Wednesday. Upside follow through would affirm support and trigger a short-term breakout. Click this image for details Read More 

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Utilities down for the year

by Arthur Hill

The Utilities SPDR (XLU) is not partaking in the 2010 market advance. While the S&P 500 is up over 6% year-to-date, the defensive oriented XLU is down almost 2%. It is the only sector sporting a loss this year. In sharp contrast, the offensive oriented consumer discretionary sector is the big winner so far. Click this image for details Read More 

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APOL consolidates near resistance

by Arthur Hill

The chart for Apollo Group (APOL) sports a consolidation pattern that looks like an inverse head-and-shoulders. Resistance in the 65-66 area stems from reaction highs in January-March as well as the consolidation in April. A break above these highs would be bullish. Notice that OBV already broke resistance. Read More 

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SPY hits channel support

by Arthur Hill

After a sharp decline on Friday and further weakness early Monday, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) recovered and managed to firm at the Raff Regression Channel. This channel defines the current advance and a break below would call for a re-evaluation of this uptrend. Read More 

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SPX: now versus 1965 to 1980

by Arthur Hill

From the historical charts at Stockcharts.com, we have cutouts of two large trading ranges. The S&P 500 was largely range bound from the mid 60s to the late 70s (~15 years) and from the late 90s until the present (~13 years). The current rally looks similar to the rally seen in 1975, which continued into 1976 and peaked below the 1973 high. Click this image for details Read More 

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Gold-Dollar relationship challenged

by Arthur Hill

The nine year chart for the US Dollar Index ($USD) and Gold-Continuous Futures ($GOLD) shows a clear inverse relationship from 2002 until 2007. Gold advanced as the Dollar declined. This inverse relationship continued with the swings of 2008 and 2009 (Dollar down/gold up and visa versa). The potential conflict is the higher high in gold (1200) and the higher low in the Dollar (green arrows). Click this image for details Read More 

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Long-term support for the Euro

by Arthur Hill

The Euro Index ($XEU) appears to be in a long-term downtrend with the next support zone around 117-120. With a lower high in December, a falling channel is taking shape. The lower trendline extends to 115 and there is support around 117-120 from the 2004-2005 lows. Should the index bounce from current levels and form a higher low, a triangle would then be possible. Click this image for details Read More 

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CRB forms monthly outside reversal

by Arthur Hill

The CRB Index ($CRB) advanced with the stock market in 2009, but hit resistance from broken support and formed a monthly outside reversal. This is also known as a bearish engulfing. The combination of resistance and reversal could cap this rally. A monthly close below the rising 10-month SMA would signal further weakness. Click this image for details Read More 

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All Ords establish support

by Arthur Hill

The Australian All Ords Composite ($AORDS) has been rallying with the rest of the world over the last 14 months. With a stall around 4500-5000 the last six months, the index established support at 4500. “No worries” for the bulls as long as this support level holds. Click this image for details Read More 

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Stocks follow interest rates

by Arthur Hill

Are rising rates bullish or bearish for the stock market? Those answering bearish may want to consider the chart below. Over the last five years, there appears to be a positive correlation between the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) and the S&P 500. Both rise and fall together. Also notice that rates led the stock market in July 2007 and December 2008. Click this image for details Read More 

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Dollar Index breaks 12-month SMA

by Arthur Hill

The 12-month SMA provides a pretty good clue on the overall direction for the US Dollar Index ($USD). There have been six crosses since 2002. Downside breaks captured long downtrends in 2002-2004 and 2006-2007. The upside breaks produced relatively short rallies that lasted almost a year. The current rally is four months old with an upside cross in February. Click this image for details Read More 

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XLE and XLU come up short

by Arthur Hill

With the advance over the last 13 months, the Energy SPDR (XLE) and the Utilities SPDR (XLU) retraced less than 50% of the prior declines. Excluding the Financials SPDR (XLF), these retracements were the shallowest of the eight sector SPDRs, which makes these two chart laggards over the last few years. Click this image for details Read More 

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XLP nears 2007 high

by Arthur Hill

The Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) is the only one of the nine sector SPDRs challenging its 2007 high. The other 8 sector SPDRs are not even close. While XLP may be lagging in percentage terms, its advance over the last 13 months is the strongest in chart terms because the ETF was the only SPDR to retrace the entire prior decline. Click this image for details Read More 

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IWM hits pre-Lehman consolidation

by Arthur Hill

With the massive rally over the last 13 months, the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) hit levels note seen since Lehman brothers dominated the news. IWM was trading in the 63-75 range just before the Lehman bankruptcy and is nearing 70. This area could mark resistance. Click this image for details Read More 

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Falling Dollar boosts Gold and Oil $GLD

by Arthur Hill

Weakness in the Dollar over the last few days spurred buying in gold and oil. The chart below shows the Gold ETF (GLD), US Oil Fund ETF (USO) and DB Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) over the last seven days. Gold took off first with a move on March 26th. Oil followed with a sharp surge on March 29th. Click this image for details Read More