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Channel Support Break in Egypt ETF Preceded Upheaval

by Arthur Hill

Last week’s upheaval in Eqypt contributed to a sharp decline in US stocks on Friday. Even though the upheaval began early last week (Tuesday), the Egypt ETF (EGPT) gave fair warning with a support break a week earlier (January 18th). This looks like a classic case of the markets leading the news. Read More 

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Consumer Discretionary SDDR Fails to Hold Breakout

by Arthur Hill

The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) broke above consolidation resistance on Thursday, but failed to hold this breakout after a sharp decline early Friday. XLY formed a long black candlestick that pushed the ETF to its lowest level since late December. An important support test is at hand. Read More 

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Steel ETF Hits Resistance with Bearish Engulfing and Harami

by Arthur Hill

The Steel ETF (SLX) is running into stiff resistance just above 75 with a bearish engulfing two weeks ago and a potentially bearish harami today. After a gap and long white candlestick on Tuesday, the stock moved sharply lower today with a long black candlestick. Today's body (open-close) is within the body of the white candlestick, which makes this a harami. A move below 73 would fill the gap and confirm the harami. Read More 

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New Highs Still Outpacing New Lows

by Arthur Hill

From the pre-defined scans page, the number of new 52-week highs continues to outpace the number of new 52-week lows. This is true for the Nasdaq, NYSE, Amex, TSE and CDNX. The latter two are Canadian exchanges. New highs are a show of strength, not weakness. Read More 

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Materials Lag in 2011 as Industrials Lead

by Arthur Hill

The year-to-date sector scorecard shows the Basic Materials SPDR (XLB) lagging the S&P 500. Moreover, XLB is the only sector sporting a loss for 2011. The technology, industrials, energy and finance sectors show relative strength with gains greater than the S&P 500. Read More 

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DJ Wheat Index Breaks Consolidation Resistance $DJAWH

by Arthur Hill

Grains are on the run with a breakout in the DJ-UBS Wheat Index ($DJAWH). The chart below shows the index surging in early December, consolidating for seven weeks and then breaking consolidation resistance the last few days. RSI broke its downtrend in early December and held the 40-50 support zone this month. Also check out Soybeans ($DJASY) and Corn ($DJACN). Read More 

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A High-Pole Warning hits P&F Chart for the S&P 500

by Arthur Hill

The S&P 500 surged above 1296 and then quickly fell below 1278 to forge a high-pole warning on the P&F chart. Despite this warning, the index remains above a clear support level marked by three reaction lows at 1263. Notice how the three columns of O’s bounced off this level in January. Read all about our PnF alerts here. Read More 

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Platinum Outperforms Gold as Auto Stocks Surge

by Arthur Hill

While the Gold Trust SPDR (GLD) pulled back rather sharply in 2011, the Platinum ETN (PGM) held strong and recorded a new 52—week high this week. Platinum was lagging gold until from early August until late November. The PGM:GLD ratio bottomed at the end of November and moved sharply higher in 2011. This could have something to do with the rebound in auto stocks (catalytic converters). Read More 

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Six weeks of no Pain for QQQQ Bulls

by Arthur Hill

The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) has not seen a loss greater than 1/2% since November 30th, around six weeks ago. There have been plenty of gains greater than 1/2% and even a few losses, but no painful losses. Moreover, this remarkable streak shows no signs of ending as the ETF edges above 57 on Tuesday. Read More 

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Stocks Lead and Gold Lags in 2011

by Arthur Hill

With two weeks underway, stocks are taking the lead and gold is taking the lag for 2011. Of the five inter-market related ETFs, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the US Dollar Fund (UUP) are up this year. The USO Oil Fund (USO), 20+ year Bond ETF (TLT) and Gold SPDR (GLD) are down. Read More 

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The Squeeze is on for Analog Devices

by Arthur Hill

With a tight trading range the last several weeks, the Bollinger Bands have significantly narrowed for Analog Devices (ADI) - and the squeeze is on. A close above the upper band would be short-term bullish, while a close below the lower band would be short-term bearish. Be careful. Sometimes the first move is a bull or bear trap and it quicly reverses. Hey, I never said it would be easy! Read More 

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Another Consolidation Breakout for the Materials SPDR

by Arthur Hill

The Basic Materials SPDR (XLB) remains on of the top performing sectors in the market. Since breaking resistance in September, the ETF advanced with a series of consolidation breakout. With the surge over the last three days, the ETF broke flag/wedge resistance and scored a 52-week high today. Read More 

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A Bearish Engulging and Failed Gap Define Downtrend for Expeditors

by Arthur Hill

Even though the market has been moving higher since mid December, Expeditors has been under pressure and shown relative weakness. It all started with a bearish engulfing in early December. The stock gapped up on the first trading day of 2011, but failed to hold the gap and declined the last six days (red candlesticks). The trend is down with channel resistance at 55. Read More 

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Oil and Oil Service HOLDRS Go Their Separate Ways

by Arthur Hill

Oil is trading up over 1% early Monday, but the Oil Service HOLDRS (OIH) is down over 1.5%. OIH seems to have some doubts regarding this pipeline related pop in crude. Read More 

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Treasury Yields Fall on Jobs Disappointment

by Arthur Hill

It has been a wild ride in the bond market this week. Treasuries fell and yields surged as the ADP employment report showed strong job growth on Wednesday. This move was reversed on Friday as bonds surged and yields fell after a disappointing non-farm payroll report. Overall, the 10-year Treasury Yield ($TNX) remains within a pennant type consolidation. Read More 

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Marking Support with the 5min P&F Chart for SPX

by Arthur Hill

Even though this is very short-term oriented, the 5 minute P&F chart for the S&P 500 shows a clear support level around 1270. The ETF bounced off this area at least five times today. A break below would argue for some sort of short-term pullback. Keep in mind that this chart only covers six trading days. Read More 

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Akamai Traces Out Bullish Engulfing at Support

by Arthur Hill

Akamai (AKAM) declined to support in December and formed a rather large bullish engulfing  on Wednesday, provided the close is above the prior day’s open. Volume also ticked up to exceed the 250-day SMA. This pattern affirms support and follow through would provide an early signal that the uptrend is resuming. Read More 

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Stocks Turns Defensive as Utilities Perk Up

by Arthur Hill

After a big bang to start the year, stocks turned defensive on day two as six of the nine sectors were down as of 3PM ET. Of the three that were up, the utilities and healthcare sectors come from the defensive end of the market. Technology, which is clearly an offensive sector, was also holding up well. Click this image for a live market summary Read More 

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Natural Gas Surges into the New Year

by Arthur Hill

The US Natural Gas Fund (UNG) remains in a long-term downtrend, but the ETF shows signs of life with a higher low in late December and a surge in early January. Broken support and the January-2010 trendline combine to mark the next resistance around 6.7-6.9. Read More