Don't Ignore This Chart

Technology ETF Traces out Bearish Engulfing at Resistance

by Arthur Hill

The Technology ETF (XLK) surged to its mid August high and formed a bearish engulfing. Resistance in this area is also marked by broken support. The bearish engulfing has yet to be confirmed though. Look for further weakness below 24 to confirm. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

New 52-week Highs List Show Outperformers

by Arthur Hill

Looking for stocks that are still in favor? Just mosy over to the pre-defined scan page for a look at the stocks making fresh 52-week highs. There were over a dozen in the Nasdaq and over three dozen on the NYSE. Hot Topic (HOTT) hit a new high after advancing 10 of the last 12 days. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Market Carpet Shows Sea of Green for Finance Sector

by Arthur Hill

The Sector Carpet shows the finance sector leading the way higher with an aveage gain of 4.2%. Color-wise, this sector shows lots of dark green, which means many stocks were up sharply. The consumer discretionary was second with an average gain of 3.5%. On the live carpet, users can hover over the squares to see the percent change and right click on the mouse for more options. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Euro ETF Challenges Resistance after Bernanke Speech

by Arthur Hill

The Euro Currency Trust (FXE) seems to like what it heard from Fed Chairman Bernanke – and the Dollar did not like it. After dipping below 143 in the morning, FXE surged above 144 by mid day. The ETF is still just shy of a breakout. Look for a move above the July-August highs to break resistance. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

XLF Fails at Resistance After Buffet Bounce

by Arthur Hill

Thursday’s announcement that Warren Buffet will invest $5 billion in Bank of America (BAC) sent the Finance SPDR (XLF) sharply higher on the open. XLF opened above 13 and surged above 13.2 in the morning. These gains quickly evaporated as sellers returned. This failure reinforces resistance from the mid August high. Follow through above this level is needed before taking any surge too seriously. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Corporate Bond ETF Takes a Tumble

by Arthur Hill

The Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) tumbled for the third straight day and broke below its August low. This ETF formed a lower high in late August as the 20+ year Bond ETF (TLT) formed a higher high (red line chart). Investment Grade Corporate Bonds are weak relative to Treasuries this month. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Best Buy Traces out an Array of Bullish Candlesticks

by Arthur Hill

Best Buy (BBY) is attempting to base with several bullish candlesticks over the last two weeks. Most recently, a Harami is taking shape on Monday-Tuesday. Prior to this, BBY formed a Hammer on Thursday and an Inverted Hammer on Friday. None of these candles has been confirmed yet. Look for a break above consolidation resistance for confirmation. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Gold Miners ETF Challenges Major Resistance Level

by Arthur Hill

After lagging gold the entire year, the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is trying to play catch-up with a surge to resistance. The December 2010 and April 2011 highs mark resitance here. Overall, GDX has been stuck in a range since October 2010 and a move above resistance would break this range. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Gold and Treasuries Outperform Everything

by Arthur Hill

After holding their own until late July, stocks joined oil and the Dollar with a move lower. The chart below shows the US Treasuries Continuous Futures ($USB) and Gold Spot ($GOLD) trading at six month highs. In contrast, Light Crude Spot ($WTIC) and the S&P 500 hit six months lows this month. The US Dollar Fund (UUP) remains above its June-July lows, but is definitely not showing any strength. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

52-week Low in Shanghai Composite Bodes Bearish

by Arthur Hill

The Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) peaked in November 2010 and hit a new 52-week low in August 2011. As the S&P 500 moved to a new high in April-May 2011, the index formed a lower high in mid April. A support break and 52-week low followed in the next few months. Relative weakness and a 52-week low in this key index are bearish for global equities. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Oil and Stocks Remain Positively Correlated

by Arthur Hill

The Correlation Coefficient is used to measure the degree of correlation between two assets. Positive correlation means they move in the same direction. Negative correlation means they move in opposite directions. The 12-Month US Oil Fund (USL) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) are positively correlated. The 20-day Correlation Coefficient shows a few dips into negative territory, but remained largely positive. The 100-day Correlation Coefficient never came close to negative territory.  Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

10-year Treasury Yield Breaks Triangle Support

by Arthur Hill

Rates plunged along with stocks over the last several weeks. This makes sense because rates move lower when bonds move high. This chart shows the 10-year Treasury Yield ($TNX) breaking triangle support with a move below 24 (2.4%). Rates remain in a long-term downtrend and Treasury bonds are in a long-term uptrend. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Euronext Bullish Percent Index Totally Breaks Down

by Arthur Hill

StockCharts.com recently added Bullish Percent Indices for some key European indices. In particular, the Euronext 100 ($BPENXT) broke support in June and continued below its 2010 low in July. There is a status bar at the top of each P&F Bullish Percent Index chart. Euronext BPI status is “Bear Confirmed”. The only positive is that BPI is considered oversold below 20. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Despite Big Gain, Sector Carpet Shows Mixed Picture for the Week

by Arthur Hill

Stocks moved sharply higher for the second time in two days, but remain mixed, at best, over the last five days. The chart below comes from the Sector Carpet. The red squares show losers, while the green squares show gainers. Notice the numbers at the top of each sector box. The utilities sectors is the only gainer the last five days (+.30). The rest are in negative territory. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Societe Generale Broke Down Before Headlines Hit

by Arthur Hill

Among other items, Wednesday’s sharp decline in stocks was blamed on solvency issues surrounding Societe Generale (GLE.EU), a large French bank. It is, however, worth noting that SocGen, as it is called, was already in a downtrend. Moreover, the stock broke supports in early July and again in early August. SocGen is down over 40% in the last two weeks. Problems were evident on the charts before the media noticed. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

ESRX Forms Big Hammer after Gap Down

by Arthur Hill

With a big recovery on Tuesday, a number of stocks formed hammers on the price charts. Express Scripts (EXRX) formed a hammer, but has yet to follow through and fill Monday’s gap. In other words, the stock is still down for the week. Follow through above the gap is needed to confirm the hammer. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Performance Chart Shows Move to Risk-off Trade

by Arthur Hill

Needless to say, there has been a clear shift in investor sentiment over the last few weeks. In short, money is re-pricing risk. Stocks and commodities, which are viewed as riskier assets, declined over the last two weeks. Bonds and gold, which are viewed as safe-havens, advanced as alternatives. The Dollar, which is somewhere in the middle is virtually unchanged. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

AMGN Firms with a Harami on Friday

by Arthur Hill

Even though it is just midday, some stocks are showing signs of firmness. Amgen (AMGN) is firming with a Harami taking shape. After a sharp decline on Thursday, the stock opened up and is trading within Thursday’s range. A break above Thursday’s high would confirm the Harami, which is a bullish candlestick reversal pattern. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

RSI for SPY Becomes Oversold a Fourth Time

by Arthur Hill

10-day RSI for SPY moved below 30 for the fourth time in 2011. I lowered the look-back period from 14 to 10 to increase sensitivity. RSI became oversold in March, June and now August. Oversold does not guarantee a bounce, but it does increase the odds of at least a dead-cat bounce. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

A Rough Seven Days for All Sectors

by Arthur Hill

The Sector Market Carpet provides a color-coded display of the last seven trading days for the S&P 500 sectors. It is mostlly red as all sectors are down. Stocks holding up the best are shown with green or white-ish squares. Three of the five gainers come from the energy sector. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Agriculture ETF Forms Wedge within a Wedge

by Arthur Hill

With a decline the last five months, the Agriculture ETF (DBA) formed a falling wedge that extends back to March. The May-July highs mark key resistance just above 33.25. After a surge in late June and early July, a smaller falling wedge took shape the last three weeks. Look for a breakout here to trigger the early bullish signal. Read More