Don't Ignore This Chart Blog Archives

June 2012

Techs and Industrials Light up Sector Carpet

The S&P Sector Carpet is full of green on Friday with the darkest green showing up in the technology and industrials sectors. The average gain in the tech sector is 3.4%, while the average gain in the industrial sector is 3%. There are isolate spots of red and the utilities sector is the weakest.

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Egyptian Stocks Surge after Election

The Egypt Index ETF (EGPT) surged in the lead up to Hosni Mubarak’s resignation and then declined as democratic elections were called. The decline ended when uncertainty became certainty and Mohammed Morsi was declared president on 24-June. With the correction holding above the December low, it looks like a channel breakout would signal a continuation of the prior advance.

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A Bollinger Band Squeeze for American Eagle

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) has been stuck in a consolidation since early May. Moreover, notice that this consolidation is narrowing as the Bollinger Bands contract. In the indicator window, Bollinger BandWidth is currently at its lowest level since February, which was scene of the last big contraction and breakout. Watch the current boundaries for the next directional clue.


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Finding Green in a Sea of Red

Stocks were down sharply on Monday, but there were a two pockets of strength. The image below was taken from the ETF market summary. Notice that the Commodity Index Fund (DBC) and the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) are positive for the day. Also of note, gold, silver and corn were advancing on Monday.

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Alcoa Traces out Descending Triangle on Point & Figure Chart

Alcoa (AA) is part of the Basic Materials SPDR (XLB) and in a clear downtrend. On the P&F chart (3 x .25), the stock broke to new lows in 2011 and then formed a descending triangle the last nine months. The red A marks October 2011 and the red 6 marks June 2012. Even though the stock recovered from a support break this month, the trend remains down and further weakness is expected.

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Sector Carpet Sees Red after the Fed

The image below comes from the Sector Carpet. First, notice that all sectors are lower. Second, notice that the Basic Materials SPDR (XLB), Energy SPDR (XLE) and Technology SPDR (XLK) have the most red. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) is not far behind. Third, notice that the defensive sectors (XLU, XLP, XLV) are holding up the best because they have the smallest losses.

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CAKE Fails at Resistance as MACD Turns Lower

Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) moved sharply lower at the beginning of June and then rebounded with the market the last few weeks. This rebound, however, is running into resistance from the gap and prior high. Also notice that MACD turned down and is on the verge of breaking below its signal line.

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A Rough Three Months for Commodities

The PerfChart below shows the three month performance for five commodity indices and the CRB Index ($CRB). All five are down and $CRB is down around 14%. Blame it on energy, which is down over 21%. Precious metals have held up relatively well with a decline less than 4%.

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Sector Summary Shows Hardware, Internet and Semis Leading

The image below, which stems from the sector summary at, shows the key industry groups within technology sector. On Monday, computer hardware, internet and semiconductors were leading the way higher. Users can click on these names to see the individual stocks, which is a great way to identify leaders and laggards within the group.

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Stocks with Big Gains and Big Prices Lead the Dow Higher

The Dow surged over 150 points on Thursday and broke above its May high. With only 30 stocks, chartists can use the CandleGlance feature at to find which stocks led the move. The Dow is a price weighed average and the stocks with the highest price have the most influence. This means stocks with big gains (<1.5%) and prices prices (> $60) carried the day (CVX, MCD, JNJ, TRV, XOM)

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S&P MidCap 400 SPDR Forms Falling Flag ahead of Big Weekend

There is a real gut check underway in the stock market. The S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) surged last week and then corrected the last 5-6 days with a falling flag/wedge. This could be a bullish continuation pattern, but one must wonder if the bulls have the guts to forge a breakout before the weekend. Well....

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SPY is Stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place

No wonder the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) cannot make up its mind on direction. The ETF broke key support in mid May and the 50-day moving average turned lower. Combined with Monday’s high, these no mark the rock or resistance zone. The support zone, or hard place, is marked by the 200-day moving average, June low and last week’s gap.

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Bearish Engulfings and Dark Clouds Litter the Pre-defined Scan Page

With a strong open and weak close on Monday, hundreds of stocks and ETFs formed either dark cloud patterns or bearish engulfing patterns. The chart below shows Home Depot (HD) forming a dark cloud near resistance and with the Stochastic Oscillator overbought. A move below 80 in the Stochastic Oscillator would signal a downturn in momentum. You can read more about candlestick patterns in the ChartSchool or see more scan results on the predefined scan page.

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German DAX Index Continues to Show Relative Weakness

The German DAX Index peaked around 7200 in mid March and moved below 6000 in early June. That’s over 15% in less than three months. Despite looking oversold, there are no signs of a reversl as the index remains below its late May high. In the indicator window, the Price Relative ($DAX:$SPX ratio) continues to trend lower as the DAX underperforms the S&P 500.

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Dow Remains above Long Term Bullish Support Line on P&F Chart

Despite a sharp decline in May-June, the Dow Industrials remains above the Bullish Support Line extending up from the October low. The red “A” marks the October column. This line sets support right at 12000. A break would reverse the current uptrend and require a red Bearish Resistance Line to be drawn from the May high.

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Home Builders Turn Dark Green on the Market Carpet

Stocks are rebounded on Tuesday with homebuilders leading the way. The S&P Sector Carpet shows the Lennar (LEN) and Pulte (PHM) leading within the consumer discretionary sector. On the price charts, PHM is bounced off its April low and LEN formed a bullish engulfing pattern.

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Utilities SPDR Leads and Forms a Bullish Cup-with-Handle Pattern

The Utilities SPDR (XLU) is virtually alone at the top as it trades near a 52-week high. A bullish cup-with-handle is taking shape and a break above resistance would signal a continuation higher. After showing relative weakness from January to mid March, the ETF started outperforming in mid March as the Price Relative turned up.

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5 and 7 Year Treasury Yields Dropping Like Rocks

The chart below shows five different treasuries yields. Notice that five and seven year yields are falling the fastest as money moves into medium-term treasuries. After peaking on March 19th, the 5-year Treasury Yield ($UST5Y) and the 7-year Treasury Yield ($UST7Y) are down over 38% in less than three months.

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