Don't Ignore This Chart

« June 2012 | August 2012 »

OBV Falls to New Lows for Dow Transports

On Balance Volume (OBV) is a simple indicator that measures buying and selling pressure. Volume is added on up days and subtracted on down days. Even though the Dow Transports is holding above its June low, OBV sank to new lows and shows selling pressure.

120801tran
Click this image for a live chart

IWM and SPY Go Separate Ways

The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) parted ways over the last few weeks. IWM peaked in early July and zigzagged lower. SPY, in contrast, zigzagged higher with a move above the mid July high. This divergence means small-caps are showing relative weakness.

120420iwmspy
Click this image for a live chart

Technology Stocks Lead Market Lower on Sector Carpet

Stocks were weak on Monday with the Technology Sector (XLK) leading the market down. The average loss for a technology stock was .70 percent. Citrix (CTXS) was the big loser with a decline of 6.09%. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) was also showing weakness.

Screen Shot 2012-07-30 at 20.42.24

Click this image for a live chart

S&P 500 Bounces off Bullish Support Line on P&F Chart

With a big surge above 1350 today, the S&P 500 reversed its falling O-Column and started a rising X-Column on the P&F chart. This reversal creates support from the prior two O-Columns and the rising Bullish Support Line (blue). A move below 1320 would break these supports and turn this chart bearish.

120726spxpnf
Click this image for a live chart

Hindenburg Omen Almost Triggers as New Lows Surge

This blog entry has been updated to reflect new information. The Hindenburg omen almost triggered on July 23rd. First, notice that new highs and news lows as a percentage of total issues surged above 2.8%. Second, notice that new highs were less twice the number of new lows. The third factor did not trigger as the NY Composite was not above the level it had 50 days ago.

120725hindi
Click this image for a live chart

New Lows Expand on the Technical Indicator Scan

The image below comes from the predefined scans page. New highs were outpacking new lows earlier this month, but the tide is shifting as new lows expand on the NYSE and Nasdaq.

Screen Shot 2012-07-24 at 20.15.52
Click this image for a live version.

 

Rising Yen Weighs on Japanese Stocks

With the market shifting to risk-off mode the last few days, the Yen ETF (FXY) broke above trend line resistance. The Yen has been moving higher since early July and the Nikkei 225 ($NIKK) has been moving lower. In fact, notice that this seesaw relationship has been quite strong in 2012. Export driven Japan is still dependant on the Yen for growth.

120723nikk
Click this image for a live chart

Dow Industrials SPDR Forms a Doji near Resistance

After a four day surge that carried the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) above 129, the ETF formed a doji to signal indecision on Thursday. Also notice that DIA formed indecisive candlesticks at the prior two peaks. A gap down and long black candlestick on Friday would form a rare evening doji star.

120720diaditc
Click this image for a live chart

Finance SPDR Looks A Little Sick as the Price Relative Breaks Support

The Finance SPDR (XLF) led the market higher from early June to mid July, but stalled the last four days and started showing relative weakness. The indicator window shows the price relative (XLF:SPY ratio). Notice how this indicator broke support from the early July low and XLF is now showing relative weakness.

120719xlf
Click this image for a live chart

Technology Sector Lights up the Sector Carpet

Stocks moved higher with the technology sector leading the charge on Wednesday. The Sector Carpet shows lots of green in this key sector. Also notice that four of the top five performers come from technology. The finance sector was the weakest with three of the five biggest losers coming from this sector.

Screen Shot 2012-07-18 at 23.19.17
 Click this image for a live chart

An Inverse Head-and-Shoulders Develops for Halliburton

With oil bouncing over the last few weeks, Halliburton is tracing out a little head-and-shoulders bottom. Despite a potentially bullish pattern, the stock remains short of the breakout needed to confirm a reversal. Also note that a volume expansion is needed to confirm any breakout.

120716hal
Click this image for a live chart

QQQ Lags the other Major index ETFs - IWM Leads

The stock market bottomed on June 4th and moved higher the last 5-6 weeks. All major index ETFs are up since June 4th, but the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) sports the smallest gain. The PerfChart below shows QQQ up 2.8% and the rest up 4% or more. Note that IWM is up a whopping 7.51% the last 28 trading days.

Screen Shot 2012-07-13 at 13.32.51
Click this image for a live chart

Defensive Sectors Keeping the S&P 500 Positive

The Sector PerfChart shows the percentage change for the S&P 500 and the nine sector SPDRs over the past month (22 trading days). Note that the S&P 500 is up, but the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY), Technology SPDR (XLK) and Industrials SPDR (XLI) are down. In contrast, the three defensive sectors are up (Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP), Healthcare SPDR (XLV) and Utilities SPDR (XLU)).

Screen Shot 2012-07-12 at 23.02.23
Click this image for a live chart

Sector Summary Shows the Clothing & Accessories Index Leading the Consumer Discretionary Sector Lower

The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) is one of the weakest sectors on Wednesday. Drilling down into the sector reveals weakness in apparel stocks. True Religion (TRLG) is down over 5%, while Polo Ralph Lauren (RL) and Warnaco (WRC) are down around 4%.

Screen Shot 2012-07-11 at 18.54.33
Click this image for a live chart

DIA Fails in Gap Zone as Long Black Candlestick Forms

The Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) formed a harami last week and then gapped down on Friday. This gap below 128 held as the ETF opened near 128 and then closed below 127 on Tuesday. Short-term, the bulls need to fill this gap. A break below the rising wedge trendline would further the bearish case.

120710dia

Click this image for a live chart

Watch the Yen ETF for Clues on the S&P 500

The Yen ETF (FXY) and the S&P 500 have been moving opposite each other for the last 6-7 months. This is because the Yen represents a safe-haven (risk-off) and the S&P 500 represents a risky asset (risk on). Accordingly, FXY broke down in June and $SPX moved higher. A break above 124 in FXY would be Yen bullish and $SPX bearish.

120706fxy
Click this image for a live chart.

KLA-Tencor Holds the Gap $KLAC

KLA-Tencor (KLA) has an island reversal of sorts working the last three weeks. Notice how the stock gapped down in mid June and then back up in late June. Since gapping higher last week, the stock consolidated the last four days. A break above consolidation resistance would signal a continuation of last week’s gap-surge.

120705klac
Click this image for a live chart.

TSX Composite Surges off Long-term Support

The big trend is down since early 2011 and a big head-and-shoulders could be forming, but, for now, the TSX Composite is showing life with a surge off support that extends all the way back to early 2010. Also notice that MACD formed a higher low and is poised to break above its signal line.

120703tsx
Click this image for a live chart.

NYSE AD Line Shows Strength with New High

Even though the NY Composite ($NYA) remains below its prior highs, the NYSE AD Line hit a new high this week and shows underlying strength. Advance-decline numbers measure the internal strength or weakness within an index. A new high in the AD Line shows internal strength that may carry thru to the index. All bullish bets are off if the NY Composite break below the mid June lows.

120703nyad
Click this image for a live chart.