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The EURO And GOLD Dance The Tango In January

by Greg Schnell

Well, a shaky January comes to a close. The discussion of deflation and commodities is front and centre. Check out this Euro and GLD chart. Look at how closely they correlate in January. You can see the correlation down below is very strong. So why is this a "Don't Ignore This Chart" post today? Let's look at the Euro trend line. First of all, the Euro broke below the dotted line in Red today.  The $USD will not update till end of day.  If you look Read More 

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Canada Bucks the Trend as TSX Gains in January (video)

by Arthur Hill

It has been a rough year for global equity markets, but the S&P/TSX Composite ($TSX) is bucking the trend with a small gain year-to-date. Notice that the Hang Seng Composite ($HSI) and Nikkei 225 ($NIKK) are leading Asia lower, while the Bovespa ($BVSP) is weighing on Latin America. European stocks are holding up the well with relatively small losses.   Read More 

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UPS Makes Oversold with Improving RSI Scan

by Arthur Hill

After a sharp decline the last three days, the stock market was oversold and ripe for a bounce. Looking through the predefined scans page, chartists can find a great scan for this situation, such as the "oversold with an improving RSI" scan. While not every stock has a great setup, this is a good first filter. The chart below shows UPS firming at the 50% retracement and RSI moving back above 30. Read More 

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A Major Bullish Reversal Pattern Takes Shape in TLT

by Arthur Hill

The 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (TLT), which is one of the best performing ETFs this year, is challenging its October high after a 5+ percent advance this year. The double bottom lows are around 101 and resistance is set at 108. A breakout here would target further strength to the 115 area. The indicator window shows the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) moving above 70 and hitting a 52-week high as TLT shows relative strength this year.   Read More 

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$LUMBER Starts To Slumber

by Greg Schnell

$LUMBER has been a great story for the last 5 years. However, the roller coaster has been difficult for investors to watch. It's been a traders market. This week, we got a signal on the $LUMBER chart. The slope of the recent rise has been a lot more gradual than the slope of the 2012 rise. Importantly, $LUMBER looks set to roll over here with a confirmed cross on the MACD after the momentum flattened out in November and December. Good trading, Greg Schnell, CMT Read More 

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$TRAN Drops To Center Of Channel

by Greg Schnell

The Transport Index is very interesting here. The divergence showing on the right hand side marked in blue looks very negative. But on the slope of the transport index, this might just mean a move to the bottom of the channel. Almost all the MACD peaks on the chart are lower than the previous peaks with the exception of November. One thing that makes this chart suspicious is the top of channel blowoff above the channel, and then a quick reversal. I do notice this is the most abrupt pullback on the chart. Hard to stop the downside momentum after such a quick drop. I would Read More 

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The Hang Seng Gaps Below Support At 22500 For The 4th Time

by Greg Schnell

Recently, the Hang Seng has been building a broadening top formation. We'll  call it a Head/Shoulders pattern. Note the loss of the 200 DMA again. What is more interesting are the lines on the chart. Those lines have been there for years. Let's broaden the view with 3 years of information. The Hnag Seng built a broad topping pattern in 2011 with support at the same level. For some reason at this level, the $HSI can really plummet quickly. Check out both the red Read More 

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Utilities Sector Benefits as Market Turns Defensive

by Arthur Hill

The Sector Carpet is mostly red on Monday, but pockets of green can be seen within the utilities sector as money moves into this defensive area of the market. Pepco Holdings (POM) is leading the group with a 1.5% gain. DTE Energy (DTE) and Ameren (AEE) are also showing relative strength with gains. Chartists can double click on a box to focus on a particular sector. Click this image for a live MarketCarpet Read More 

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$NIKK Looks Wobbly Here

by Greg Schnell

One of the important technical advantages that a technician can use to prevent losses is by studying how parabolic moves fail. Here is a long term chart of the $NIKK in Japan.  When the MACD and RSI put in a lower high on the second peak or attempt to break through the previous high, investors should be very cautious. It takes time to form, but waiting for the MACD to roll over on the weekly chart is usually better than shorting as it makes a higher high. The $NIKK has been a bouncing ball of lower Read More 

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Gold and Treasuries Take Top Honors in 2014 (video)

by Arthur Hill

The stock market finished strong in 2013, but has not been able to gain much traction in 2014. Instead, money has moved into the Gold SPDR (GLD) and the 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (TLT). The intermarket PerfChart shows TLT and GLD with 4+ percent gains year-to-date. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is down around 1% and the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is up around 1%. How's that for split. Read More 

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A Breakaway Gap and Key Break for JP Morgan

by Arthur Hill

JP Morgan (JPM) is leading the finance sector lower on Thursday with a gap and support break. This gap should be considered a breakaway gap as long as it remains unfilled. The indicator window shows the MACD Histogram moving to its lowest level in over four months. This means the distance between MACD and its signal line is the most negative since late August. Read More 

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A Rare Bearish Candlestick Pattern Takes Shape in Chipotle (video)

by Arthur Hill

Momentum darling Chipotle (CMG) has come under selling pressure with eight filled candlesticks in a row. A filled, or black, candlestick forms when the close is below the open, which indicates selling pressure after each open. Should today's long filled candlestick remain, a rare three black crows pattern would take shape. As the name suggests, these patterns form with three long filled candlesticks. In addition, notice that the open for the last two candlesticks is above the prior close and CMG sold off after each strong open. Read More 

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European Auto Makers Lead Group Higher

by Arthur Hill

The PerfChart below shows three month performance for seven auto stocks, six of which feature in the Global Auto ETF (CARZ). Notice that Fiat, VW and Damlier have the biggest gains. Even though these three are based in Europe, they have global reach and benefited from strong auto sales elsewhere. Ford and GM are split, and the Japanese carmakers are down. Read More 

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NLR - Nuclear Makes A January Jump

by Greg Schnell

Seasonality is always an interesting part of TA. Look at this trend in NLR. One of the interesting patterns in this chart is the strong January every year. What makes this more interesting is the ETF is now above 80 on the full Sto's suggesting the bull market has room ro go unlike the last 2 years. But this trend of rolling over in the first quarter is puzzling. We are almost three years after Fukushima, so we need to watch closely if this latest uptrend will change the January Jump historical trend. With the previous last high at $50.30, and we are nearing that level now, it Read More 

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EA Surges with Breakaway Gap on Big Volume $EA

by Arthur Hill

Electronic Arts (EA) came to life with its second bounce off support and a breakaway gap. This gap occurred on high volume and the stock broke above the late December high. Friday's move put EA into positive territory for the year. In addition, the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) surged above its December high. Read More 

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Market Summary Shows Strength in Commodity ETFs

by Arthur Hill

As its name suggests, the Market Summary provides an excellent overview of the financial markets in one page. There are nine tables representing nine different groups. A quick scroll through Thursday's tables reveals some buying interest in several commodity-related ETFs: Copper (CU), Natural Gas (UNG), Sugar (SGG), Coffee (JO), Agriculture (DBA) and Livestock (COW).   Read More 

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Steel ETF Forms Piercing Pattern at Key Level

by Arthur Hill

The Steel ETF (SLX) is perking up after a pullback to support. First, notice how broken resistance in the 46.5-47 area turned into support and held in November and December. With the January test, the ETF formed a piercing pattern on Tuesday and confirmed this candlestick reversal with another gain on Wednesday. The indicator window shows the Stochastic Oscillator turning up from oversold levels. Read More 

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Black Gold Snaps A Trend Line

by Greg Schnell

This compelling point in time on the $BRENT chart makes it very worthy of the 'Don't Ignore This Chart' blog. Starting at the top, the RSI is still staying under 65 which we would associate with a bear market pattern. It is currently testing the 18 month uptrend line off the 2012 lows as well. The relative performance in Purple is clear. $BRENT is underperforming the broad market so investors are flowing out of $BRENT. $BRENT is in a massive pattern, somewhat similar to the $WTIC Read More 

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F5, Juniper and Apple Buck the Selling Pressure

by Arthur Hill

The Sector Market Carpet showed a lot of red on Monday, but there were a few green squares within the tech sector. In fact, a couple of networking stocks led as F5 Networks (FFIV) and Juniper (JNPR) scored big gains. Also notice that Xerox (XRX), Red Hat (RHT), Hewlett Packard (HPQ) and Apple (AAPL) gained on a down day. Chartists can hover over the carpet and right click to see options to show/hide tickers or view in square/market cap mode etc. Read More 

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TAN Tries To Break Previous Highs

by Greg Schnell

The solar industry has had a ray of sunlight shining on it all year. TAN and KWT were two huge performing ETFs in the space. There are a few points on this chart that make it very timely. We are trying to break out to new highs currently. The first thing to be watching is that we made a lower low in price for the first time since April. Market oscillations are not uncommon. However, a lower low needs to be followed by a higher high to continue the uptrend. The indicators are telling us to watch closely. The MACD is at a much lower level than at the previous high in Read More 

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Only Two of the Nine Sector SPDRs are up Year-to-date

by Arthur Hill

Stocks are off to a rough start in 2014 with seven of the nine sectors SPDRs under water. The Energy SPDR (XLE), Materials SPDR (XLB) and Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) are leading the way lower. On the flipside, the HealthCare SPDR (XLV) and the Finance SPDR (XLF) show gains and relative strength. Read More 

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Airlines Lead Market, but Shooting Stars Could be Forming

by Arthur Hill

Stocks were under mild selling pressure early Thursday, but airlines bucked the trend with good gains and fresh highs. A look at the predefined scans page shows several airlines and two airline-related stocks making the 52-week high list today. Despite new highs and uptrends, also note that UAL, DAL, LUV and ALK are trading well below their morning highs and shooting star patterns could form. Click here for a CandleGlance chart of all six.  Click this image for a live page Read More 

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A Bearish Continiation Pattern Triggers for the Oil&Gas Equip&Services SPDR

by Arthur Hill

Weakness in oil continues to weigh on the Oil & Gas Equip & Services SPDR (XES) as the ETF broke flag support. The chart below shows XES hitting resistance at the 50% retracement and breaking flag support over the last three days. This signals a continuation of the prior decline and targets a move to the next support zone in the 40 area. The lower window shows the USO Oil Fund (USO) falling over 7% the last seven days. Ouch! Read More 

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Retail SPDR Lags as SCTR Breaks Down

by Arthur Hill

The S&P 500 hit a new high in late December, but the Retail SPDR (XRT) fell short of its prior high and could be forming a lower high, which is the first step to a downtrend. The June trend line and December low mark key support in the 84-84.5 area. The indicator window confirms the deterioration in XRT as the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) broke below 60 for the first time since January 2013. Read More 

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Two Key Moving Averages Define the Trend for the Coal ETF

by Arthur Hill

The Coal ETF (KOL) got a summer bounce, but stalled in the autumn and then hit resistance from the falling 200-day moving average. The 50-day moving average joined the battle as it met the 200-day at the end of December. With a sharp downturn the last three days, KOL appears to be resuming its long-term downtrend and heading for a test of the summer lows. The indicator window shows the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) plunging back to its lows as KOL underperforms the rest of the market. Read More 

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Gold Miners ETF Challenges First Resistance

by Arthur Hill

The Gold Miners ETF (GDX) remains in a downtrend overall, but the ETF is showing signs of life with a resistance challenge to start the year. Resistance in the 22-23 area stems from broken support, the August trend line and the early December high. GDX needs to clear this zone before chartists can consider this surge more than just an oversold bounce. Read More 

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A Double Wedge Break For Bank of America

by Arthur Hill

Bank of America (BAC) is starting the New Year with a breakout on the price chart and surge in the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR). The SCTR is up over 15 points and back above 70, which made it easy to spot on the SCTR table when sorted by change. On the price chart, BAC broke wedge resistance in mid December, formed a smaller wedge and broke out again today. Read More