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Utilities Sector Heads to Lagging Quadrant on RRG

by Arthur Hill

There is a new feature in town: Relative Rotation Graphs from Julius de Kempenaer. These graphs make it easy to see which sectors are improving, leading, weakening and lagging. Most recently, notice how the Utilities SPDR (XLU) moved from the leading quadrant to the weakening quadrant over the last eight weeks. XLU is on the verge of entering the lagging quandrant. On a positive note, notice how the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) recently moved from the lagging quadrant to the improving quadrant. Click here to learn more about RRG.  Click this image Read More 

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Yelp (YELP) Jumps Before Earnings

by Greg Schnell

Yelp (YELP) is reporting earnings after the bell, but the market appears to think it is going to be great! The stock is up over 8% and the earnings come out at 4:30 EST today. Every signal turned green today with the price gapping above the 200 DMA. Here is the weekly for a reference. The SCTR jumped up in June saying something was changing on the stock. After earnings tonight we'll know more but the market is expecting something great. Good trading, Greg Schnell, CMT Read More 

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Wynn Breaks Out with Good Volume and Relative Strength

by Arthur Hill

I was looking through the list of large-cap stocks with the biggest gains in their StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) and found Wynn Resorts with a huge move (+24.8 to 78). Wynn is now in the top 23 percent of large-caps for relative strength based on the SCTR. Looking at the price chart, notice how the stock firmed near two key retracements and broke out with big volume.  Read More 

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J C Penney (JCP) Starts To Outperform

by Greg Schnell

J C Penney (JCP) is a crazy chart that was decimated by a dramatic change in marketing strategy. Recently, a new management team was put in place to revive the brand. Here is a view of the chart and what makes it particularly compelling to watch. I particularly like the SCTR ranking. When it rises up, tests above 70, falls back and then rises up again, it is usually a pretty bullish picture. We can see the MACD is back above zero for the first time in 2 years. The price action looks like institutional size buyers are just absorbing stock at Read More 

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Precious Metals Lag their Industrial Counter Parts

by Arthur Hill

The PerfChart below shows the Base Metals ETF (DBB) along with seven other metal-related ETFs. Notice that the Aluminum ETF (JJU) and Palladium ETF (PALL) are the big leaders. Meanwhile, the Gold SPDR (GLD) and the Silver ETF (SLV) are the laggards. Gold is clearly precious and lagging. Aluminum is clearly industrial and leading. Perhaps this says something about the state of the economy and the Dollar.  Read More 

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Cocoa Bucks the Selling Pressure in Agriculture ETFs

by Arthur Hill

The PerfChart below shows the Multi-sector Agriculture ETF (DBA) along with six other agriculturally based ETFs. Five of the six got slammed over the past month with the Corn Trust ETF (CORN) and Soybean Fund (SOYB) posting double digit losses. The Cocoa Fund (NIB) is the lone winner with a .79% gain.  Read More 

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iShares BRIC (BKF) Breaks Out

by Greg Schnell

We keep wondering when the global economy is going to improve. Well, India has been on a tear for a while. China, Russia and Brazil have not been able to break out. That might be changing. Here is the chart for the iShares BRIC Countries (BKF). Almost every indicator with the exception of the MACD is surging to new highs. I specifically like the long Full Stochastics finally breaking out. The SCTR ranking has moved to almost 90%. Top quartile ETFs can run for a while. We'll see if that happens here, but last weeks breakout to new 52 week highs is bullish. The Money Flow has Read More 

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Baltic Dry Index ($BDI) Revisits The Major Lows

by Greg Schnell

The shipping rates represented by the Baltic Dry Index ($BDI) just can't seem to get a break. With rates soaring to huge highs in 2007, new ships were ordered well into the future. As those ships are delivered and commodity demand is still slack, the Baltic Dry Index ($BDI) is dropping like a stone again. I drew a horizontal red line at the current price. Most of the lows below this level are spike lows.  One thing to note, the rates are almost back to where they were in the 3rd and 4th Quarters of 2012. It would seem demand for shippers has not picked up Read More 

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Rough Week Leaves DIA the Last Man Standing

by Arthur Hill

Stocks came under selling pressure over the past week with small-caps bearing the brunt. The PerfChart below shows the performance for eight major index ETFs over the past week. Seven are down and only one is up. The Dow Diamonds (DIA) has the only gain. The Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) and Equal-Weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) led lower. In his recent commentary, Martin Pring noted that news highs in the Dow were not telling the whole story (subscription required).  Read More 

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Change Your View On $$GDP

by Greg Schnell

Gross Domestic Product ($$GDP) is the broad view on the economy. Normally there is some tracking of the stock market with Gross Domestic Product. The top graph shows the USA GDP in Millions of Dollars.The left hand scale is for the SP500 ($SPX) shown as an area chart in behind the plot of GDP. We can see that GDP does not usually have a negative print but it did in the first quarter where the line changes to orange. The bottom graph shows the quarterly Rate Of Change (ROC) in Percent of the GDP data shown in the top plot. So what is critically Read More 

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A Rather Dull Advance for the S&P 500

by Arthur Hill

The S&P 500 is up over 6% since mid April, but this advance has been about as boring as they get. Note that this key benchmark has not moved more than 1% since April 16th (hat tip crossingwallstreet.com). The old Wall Street adage, "never short a dull market", is clearly working here. Chartists can mark first support at the mid April trend line and mid July low (call it 1950).  Click this image for a live, and boring, chart.  Read More 

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Solar Energy ETF Tests Key Moving Averages

by Arthur Hill

After a wedge breakout in late May, the Solar Energy ETF (TAN) is testing this breakout and two key moving averages in July. Notice how the 50-day and 200-day moving averages converge in the 40-41 area. TAN is currently above both and the 50-day is above the 200-day. The bias is still positive, but a move below 40 would break both moving averages and turn the bias bearish.  Read More 

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Alaska Air Bucks the Selling and Remains Strong

by Arthur Hill

Alaska Air (ALK) fell sharply in early June, established support just above 46 and bounced off this support zone the last few days. This is impressive considering the selling pressure that hit the market this week. Notice the hollow, or white, candles. These form when the close is well above the open, which means there was buying pressure during the day. The indicator window shows the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) holding above 70 as ALK continues to show relative strength.  Read More 

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VIX Seasonality Shows a Strong Tendency in July

by Arthur Hill

There are seasonal tendencies and then there are STRONG seasonal tendencies. Over the last 20 years, the S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) has moved higher 80% of the time in the month of July. This follows the weakest month, June, which shows a rising VIX just 25% of the time. A strong tendency for a higher VIX in July suggests that the S&P 500 could close lower this month. Don't forget about ChartCon, an action packed conference featuring Richard Arms, Alexander Elder, John Murphy and Martin Pring - live and in person.   Read More 

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Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) Tries To Break Out Again

by Greg Schnell

The Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) is an all encompassing ETF for the emerging markets. Currently, the world is very bullish, but the EEM has traded sideways for years. Recently, I published a blog on the EEM back in May. You can read that blog here by clicking through on this link. Are Emerging Markets Emerging? Let's look at the updated chart. Starting at the top, the RSI is trying to break the bear market trend. At 67.75 it is the second highest reading since 2010. So it is trying to break the bear market indicator.I would suggest it has. Behind that is the relative strength in Read More 

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A Rough Week for Utilities

by Arthur Hill

It was a short week, but stocks moved higher with eight of the nine sectors gaining. As the PerfChart below shows, the consumer discretionary and technology sectors led with 2+ percent gains. The utilities sector was the lone loser with a 2.83% loss. Also notice that the consumer staples sector gained just .37% and lagged the others. Money was clearly moved into offensive sectors this week.   Read More 

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Shooting Star Takes Shape in Apollo $APOL

by Arthur Hill

Apollo (APOL) hit resistance at broken support last week and then formed a shooting star this week. This shooting star represents a failed intraday rally. Notice how the stock surged to 32 on Tuesday and then fell to close near 31. This failure also occurred when the market rallied on Tuesday. The indicator window shows MACD(5,35,5) just above its signal line. A move below the signal line would indicate a downturn in upside momentum.   Read More 

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There Is Gold To Be Found In A Few Places This Summer - GDX

by Greg Schnell

Gold. That shiny metal that is all the rage even when it is on a sell signal! Something caught my eye on the miners and it was that shiny little indicator SCTR. However, something is pretty compelling on this chart. All three creators of the these indicators shown will be at the Chartcon 2014 convention in Seattle. Yes, John Murphy, Martin Pring and Alexander Elder are just three of the key presenters at the conference. But on the StockCharts website recently,  there were articles posted in the Market Message for subscribers. The first publication date: May Read More