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What Does A Quarter Buy You These Days? Not Much?

by Greg Schnell

The $SPX has been moving in a tight range for the last six months. In December 2014 we closed at 2059, in March 2015 we closed at 2067, in June we closed at 2063. Quarterly data can take a lot of the weekly machinations of the market and make it look more normal. So the chart below shows a steady advance over the last 3 years with the close of every candle inside or above the body of the previous candle. Nicely defined uptrend. In one year we have moved from 1960 to 2063 so 5% over a 1 year span. More interesting for me is that the price range (ATR) in the quarter was the Read More 

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FTSE Hits Fibonacci Cluster Zone and LLoyds Forms Bull Flag

by Arthur Hill

Today's post is for our UK traders because it focuses on the FTSE and three of the biggest banks in the UK. Shares in Europe were sharply lower in early trading on Monday with the German DAX Index ($DAX) and French CAC Index ($CAC) losing around 3%. The FTSE Index ($FTSE) in London was holding up relatively well with a 1.5% decline around midday. Chart 1 shows the FTSE peaking in the 7100 area in April and falling to the 6600 area in late June. Note that the index hit a 52-week high in April and this suggests that the long-term trend is up. In addition, the index is near a potential Read More 

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AMZN Awaiting Next Bullish Breakout

by Tom Bowley

Amazon.com (AMZN) continues to reach for the stars and if the current technical pattern plays out, it'll likely be much closer.  After soaring through price resistance in April to set a fresh all-time high on the heels of better-than-expected earnings, AMZN has been consolidating in a bullish continuation pattern - the cup with handle.  The handle is easier to see on a daily chart, which is not presented below.  But the cup is quite clear.  The good news for the bulls is that even if this pattern doesn't confirm and short-term price support is lost at the bottom of the Read More 

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These Soles Are On Fire - Footwear Index Continues To Leap

by Greg Schnell

Footwear is one of the best performing industry groups recently. The Dow Jones Footwear Index soared to new highs this week. It was the fifth best group over the last month, and fourth best over the last week. Skechers (SKX), Steve Madden (SHOO), and Crocs (CROX)  all have SCTRs above 75. But the big winner as a large cap stock is Nike (NKE). It continues to leap to new highs. So if you continue to look at some of the outperforming industry groups, there are some great companies which can keep your portfolio on its toes!  With strong uptrends Read More 

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IPG Photonics (IPGP) - Charting Upcoming Triangle Support

by Tom Bowley

IPGP resides in the semiconductor industry and is pulling back with this industry group as June has proven to be a very rough month for this space.  I'm expecting that to soon change and IPGP could be a direct beneficiary.  But first, there's some technical business that might have to be taken care of.  After a very strong uptrend that ended in mid-2011, IPGP consolidated in a bullish long-term ascending triangle.  That pattern finally resolved to the upside in early 2015 and the recent selling could be nothing more than a retest of a key breakout level Read More 

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A Classic Sector Breadth Oscillator Surges to Highest Level of 2015

by Arthur Hill

StockCharts users have access to the McClellan Oscillators and Summation Indices for the nine sector SDDRs and the major stock indices. Before showing how to find these symbols, let's take a look at the McClellan Oscillator and McClellan Summation Index for the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY). The chart below shows the McClellan Oscillator surging to its highest level since November 28th. With three readings above 50 the last four days, it is clear we have a breadth thrust to go along with the new 52-week high in the underlying ETF (XLY). The bottom window shows the Summation Index Read More 

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Rite Aid (RAD) Continues To Push Against Up Side Resistance

by Greg Schnell

Rite-Aid (RAD) has a very interesting chart formation this week. Recently the stock surged to long term highs. As it continues to battle against the resistance levels, we can see $8.75 seems to be an important area for the stock. It struggled to push above $8.75 in early April. After spending a week trying to go higher, it rolled over after making new highs. In May, it tried again. In June it has pushed up within a penny of the April highs. after a quick dip down on Friday, Rite-Aid was bought again on Monday and Tuesday. If we look at the top of the chart, the SCTR broke above 75 in Read More 

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Vertex Goes for a Continuation Break

by Arthur Hill

Vertex (VRTX) is part of the healthcare sector, which is one of the strongest sectors in the market. It is also part of the biotech industry, which is one of the strongest industry groups in the healthcare sector. This puts strong sector and industry group performance in its favor. On the price chart, VRTX hit 52-week highs in March-April and then consolidated into mid June. The stock broke above the April trend line with a surge over the last four days and is threatening resistance from the early June high. A follow through breakout here would argue for a continuation of the bigger Read More 

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Does The US Dollar ($USD) Go To The Guillotine?

by Greg Schnell

Well, the US Dollar ($USD) has certainly created some broad moves in the markets throughout last year with a massive thrust out of a trading range mid 2014. We can see it was almost exactly one year ago that the dollar started from its July low. This week shows another potential turning point for the $USD. Yesterday's trading saw the dollar give a hard bounce off neck line support. When we have a clear neck line and a typical head/ shoulders setup, it is important for us to see if the trading range stays in play or if the ticker symbol breaks down through support. Read More 

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Home Properties (HME) Reverses At Key Support; Fed Decision Spurs REITs

by Tom Bowley

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday suggested the pace on increasing interest rates would be slower than previously thought.  There was renewed interest in treasuries and the 10 year treasury yield dropping nearly 10 basis points in the two hours following the Fed policy statement.  Those remarks by Fed Chair Janet Yellen gave REITs a boost in late trading on Wednesday and HME was a beneficiary, holding key price, gap and moving average support.  There appears to be a significant amount of support in the 71-72 range and HME printed a reversing hammer Read More 

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A Key Gauge to Watch for Signs of Contagion

by Arthur Hill

Many of us remember the financial crisis in 2008 when Lehman collapsed and the credit markets froze. The S&P 500 plunged some 40% and the 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (TLT) surged over 30% in a flight to quality. This was a true financial crisis and the markets reflected this crisis. The chart below shows 3-month Libor ($LIBOR) surging from 2.85% to 4.85% as interbank lending froze in September 2008. This spike in the Libor confirmed a credit crisis and the markets responded accordingly. What about now? Matthew Lynn at MarketWatch.com wrote a great Read More 

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High Tech Biotech Alkermes (ALKS) Tries To Recover From A Tough Setback

by Greg Schnell

Alkermes (ALKS)  appears to be a highly specialized Biotech working on rare conditions to help with managing the effect of the condition. Recently Alkermes (ALKS) took a tumble and the stock dropped from $75 to $55. Can it recover? First of all, the SCTR has popped back up. The relative strength line shown in white is still climbing. The price clearly broke out of the downtrend and looks to have more upside.  The MACD on this stock rarely goes below zero. Trading the Biotechs comes with huge risk and huge reward. This stock is another in the storied Read More 

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The Golden State Trade with Oracle and Under Armour

by Arthur Hill

Two stocks associated with the Golden State Warriors are showing promise as Step Curry leads his team to a 3-2 lead in the series. The Warriors play in the Oracle Arena and Oracle (ORCL) is making waves with an ascending triangle. Admittedly, the pattern is a little long and the prior advance (mid March) is short for a bullish continuation pattern, but the essence of the pattern is there. Notice how the stock formed higher lows from April to June and horizontal resistance resides at 45. A breakout here would target a move to new highs in this software giant.  Read More 

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Twitter (TWTR) Nearing The UnTweetable

by Tom Bowley

There hasn't been much positive news to tweet about at Twitter (TWTR) lately.  In the midst of its downward spiral in price action, CEO Dick Costolo announced he would be resigning from TWTR and TWTR's co-founder and Chairman Jack Dorsey would take over.  The problem here is that Dorsey is already the co-founder and CEO of Square, another internet company that is having major financial issues, to say the least.  Technically, TWTR is at a crossroads.  Price support currently resides in the 35-36 area as that level has held on a few other bouts of selling.  Should Read More 

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GotoMeeting Owner Citrix (CTXS) Holds Its Own Meeting On Going Higher

by Greg Schnell

GotoMeeting is clearly one of the leaders in the online meeting world. Citrix Systems (CTXS) is the owner of GotoMeeting and a host of other less known software solutions. Yesterday Elliott Management announced a 7.1% stake with a long letter to management discussing methods of increasing shareholder value. The stock popped on the news, but more importantly, it looks to be breaking out of a 4 year down trend on the news. The chart has been going higher since January 2015 and the weekly chart shows an inflection point on the chart. Here is Citrix (CTXS).  Read More 

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Mobileye (MBLY) Sees Breakout on Heavy Volume

by Tom Bowley

Mobileye (MBLY) is one of the companies behind the car crash avoidance technology.  MBLY broke its downtrend line in early March on surging volume and has been trending higher ever since.  Volume trends remain very strong and today's breakout is occurring on excellent volume as it clears double top resistance from April and May.  Note also that the daily MACD recently "reset" back at centerline support and momentum is now strengthening once again.  During any period of selling, I'd look for the breakout level of 48.48 and the rising 20 day EMA, currently just above Read More 

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Only One of the Nine Sector SPDRs is up this Month

by Arthur Hill

Eight of the nine sector SPDRs are down month-to-date and the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is also down (as of the 9-June close). One sector, however, is bucking the trend with a small gain. The Finance SPDR (XLF) is up around a half percent and easily outperforming the other eight sectors, and the market in June. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and Industrials SPDR (XLI) are in second and third place with declines less than 1%. These two are showing relative strength by holding up better than the other sectors. In fact, these two could turn positive with decent gains on Wednesday. We will Read More 

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AT&T (T) Gets High Enough For A Signal

by Greg Schnell

AT&T (T) continues to push higher. This week the SCTR has reached 75 again. Is the internet of things starting to kick in for the Telco's? Check out the rising lows on the consolidation for AT&T. 5 of the last 7 weeks have had big volume on up weeks. The MACD has started a sustainable rise and looks set to continue. This $34.50 level in orange on the price plot continues to be resistance. Last week it broke above, but at the time of writing we are back at $34.59. The chart looks bullish and 2 weeks of closing above $34.50 would probably confirm the breakout with a Read More 

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Time Warner and Eastman Chemical Lead SCTR Gainers

by Arthur Hill

Chartists looking for the "relative strength" movers and shakers of the day can focus on the stocks and ETFs with the biggest changes in their StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR). Small tables can be found in the bottom half of the home page and full listings can be found on the SCTR home page. The image below shows the "Top Up" list for the large-cap SCTRs and the ETF SCTRs. Notice that Eastman Chemical (EMN) and Time Warner (TWX) are highlighted. I chose these two stocks because they have constructive chart patterns at work. The charts for EMN and TWX are shown after the Read More 

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PNC Financial Services (PNC) Makes Bullish Breakout

by Tom Bowley

Money is rotating towards financial stocks as the market prepares for what appears will be Fed tightening later in 2015 into 2016.  Higher yields on treasuries and a steepening yield curve generally increase net interest margin, the key metric in bank earnings.  So traders are using this fundamental development to encourage buying in many areas of the financial sector and bullish technical signs are popping up everywhere in this space, especially banks.  PNC Financial Services (PNC) is just one company in this area that broke out last week, clearing cup resistance Read More 

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Is Bank Of America (BAC) Over Exposed?

by Greg Schnell

Bank of America (BAC) has been a wild ride for swing traders. The faster ones will have made some money. The slower ones will have been stopped out both directions, time after time. The Buy and Holders have been worked over on their conviction. $16.75 has been a very interesting reversal point for Bank of America. As you can tell by the chart, the price has oscillated around this level many many times over the last 18 months. There have been many breakouts to the upside on news that the Fed would raise interest rates. This would help B of A. But the stock keeps pulling back. Could Read More 

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Verizon Downgraded, Tests Short-Term Support

by Tom Bowley

JP Morgan downgraded Verizon (VZ) this morning, instead choosing AT&T (T) and that has put pressure on VZ in the early going.  Thus far, buyers have emerged and VZ has risen off its opening gap lower.  Technically, VZ is continuing its downtrend that it started just over a month ago near 51.00 with today's opening price testing six month trendline support and nearing the Fibonacci 50% retracement level.  Volume is very heavy so a nice finish could enable today's red hollow candle to establish solid short-term support in the days ahead.  A weak finish, however, would Read More 

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Don't Look Now, but Small-cap SCTRs are Leading

by Arthur Hill

May was a strong month for big tech stocks, small caps and mid caps. It was such a big month that the Russell 2000 iShares, S&P SmallCap iShares and S&P MidCap SPDR are in the top third of the SCTR table below. Notice that the Russell 2000 Growth iShares is the strongest of all with an SCTR above 90. Large-caps are in the bottom third with SCTRs below 70. Notice that the S&P 500 SPDR and the S&P 100 ETF have SCTRs near 69. This is still ok because the SCTRs range from zero to one hundred. A SCTR of 69 means the ETF is in the top 31% of all ETFs in our universe, which Read More 

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Is Endo Pharmaceuticals (ENDP) Passing The End Point?

by Greg Schnell

Endo Pharmaceuticals (ENDP) has been on a recent pullback from a wonderful uptrend. After moving from a close around $60 to a close over $95, Endo has had a 20% pullback and is still well above the 200 DMA! Impressive power! The month of May looks to be a consolidation pattern and a close above $85 would probably break the downtrend.  A horizontal break out above the last high of $86.72 is also close at hand. With a 50 period EMA for volume over 2 million shares/day, this stock sets up nicely.    The MACD is starting to turn up, suggesting Read More 

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Home Construction ETF Moves Into Leading RRG Quadrant

by Arthur Hill

The Home Construction iShares (ITB) is showing some improvement in relative performance with a move from the improving quadrant to the leading quadrant over the last few days. The image below shows a daily Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) with ten industry group ETFs and the Equal-Weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) as the benchmark. In addition to the four quadrants the RRG can be divided into two halves. Symbols on the left show relative weakness because their JdK RS-Ratio is below 100. Symbols on the right show relative strength because their JdK RS-Ratio is above 100 (see scale at bottom). ITB Read More