Don't Ignore This Chart

Is Now The Time To Jump In F5 Networks?

F5 Networks (FFIV) has a seasonal history of performing extremely well in October and November, but technically the stock has been a wreck since topping in March 2017 and the early October returns haven't been very good either.  There is hope, however, in the form of upcoming price support and it appears as though longer-term weekly momentum could be turning as well.  Check out this weekly chart:

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One of the Weakest Stocks in the S&P 500 Looks Set to Get Even Weaker

The S&P 500 is near all time highs and we are in a bull market, but Advance Auto Parts (AAP) did not get the memo and recent signals point to new lows. First and foremost, the long-term trend is down because the 50-day SMA is below the 200-day SMA and the stock hit a new low in August. AAP bounced from this August low, but hit resistance near broken support and the falling 50-day SMA. Notice that a rising wedge formed and the stock broke the wedge line with a sharp decline the last four days. This break signals a continuation of the long-term downtrend and a move below the August low is expected. The indicator window shows MACD confirming with a bearish signal cross over the last few days. 

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Thanks for tuning in and have a good day!
--Arthur Hill CMT

Plan your Trade and Trade your Plan
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This Tech Company Just Broke Out Of Bullish Pattern With Rising SCTR

While we've seen many indices, ETFs and individual stocks break out over the past several weeks, there are still many that are consolidating in bullish fashion and those, upon breakout, provide solid trading opportunities.  Enter DXC Technology Company (DXC).  Over the past two months, the S&P 500 has risen nearly 100 points (roughly 4%) while DXC has quietly consolidated and worked off short-term overbought conditions.  It's how the market works.  Leaders lead, consolidate, then lead again.  DXC's two month consolidation appears to have ended rather emphatically on Friday as you can see below:

The breakout of this textbook ABCDE ascending triangle pattern came on 2.2 million shares, or about 30% above the 50 day moving average volume of 1.65 million shares.  That higher volume confirms the pattern in my opinion and I would expect a measurement initially to the 90 level.  Support should be found at both price support just above 86 and the rising 20 day EMA, currently at 85.18.

The breakout also triggered a quick rise in the SCTR back above 70 and nearly into the top quartile of stocks.  Strong volume trends and a rising SCTR suggest bullish days ahead for DXC.

Happy trading!

Tom

RRG says you need to keep an eye on Small Caps!

The Relative Rotation Graph above shows the rotation of the three size indices that make up the S&P Composite 1500 index.

Although the S&P 500 large cap index ($SPX) is still clearly on the right-hand side of the RRG, making very small rotations close to the 100-level on the JdK RS-Momentum scale some interesting moves seem to be playing out on the left-hand side of the plot.

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BlackBerry: Will This Rally Be Any Different Than The Last Several?

Blackberry's (BBRY) demise from 2008 through 2012 has been well documented and I'm not really interested in dwelling in that past.  More recently, however, BBRY has attempted on multiple occasions to clear price resistance in the 11-12 range.  Clearing such resistance would be technically significant and further the case for buying BBRY.  Here's the current technical view:

The blue circles above show that interest has definitely picked up in BBRY with volume the past six months much higher than at any point in 2016.  Also, the SCTR returning to the 90s is a very good sign as well.  But nothing is more important, in my view, than clearing that overhead resistance that's stymied the stock for four years.

Happy trading!

Tom

Alphabet Turns up with Increase in Volume

Alphabet, which some of you may know as Google, surged off a support zone with good volume and broke short-term resistance. This breakout could evolve into more because the big picture is also bullish. GOOGL advanced to a new high in May and then consolidated with a long consolidation. The blue trend lines converge slightly so we could call it a symmetrical triangle. Regardless, a consolidation after a 52-week high is typically a bullish continuation pattern and a breakout at 1000 would signal a continuation of the bigger uptrend. Short-term, the breakout in the 950-960 area is holding as broken resistance turns into support. A close back below 950 would negate this breakout and call for a re-evaluation. 

Follow me on Twitter @arthurhill  - Keep up with my 140 character commentaries.

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Thanks for tuning in and have a good day!
--Arthur Hill CMT

Plan your Trade and Trade your Plan
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Airlines Begin Their Typical October Rally

Airlines ($DJUSAR) absolutely "took off" in today's action as buyers emerged to drive nearly every airline higher.  Spirit Airlines (SAVE) surged 7.10%.  JetBlue Airways (JBLU) popped 7.08%.  Delta Air Lines (DAL) jumped 6.62%.  One fundamental reason for the group's strength was DAL's announcement that it reaffirmed its third quarter unit revenue and margin guidance, excluding the costs associated with Hurricane Irma.  Perhaps more important, however, is the simple fact that it's October.  While many are fearful this time each year because of famed market crashes in 1929 and 1987 that occurred during October, don't count airlines as a group that worries too much about the month.  Seasonally, it doesn't get any better than October as the following seasonal chart shows:

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3M Holds the Breakout Zone $MMM

3M (MMM) is helping itself and the Dow Industrials with a breakout in mid September. As a price-weighted average, the stocks with the highest price carry the most weight and MMM, which is the third highest-priced stock, accounts for around 6.5% of the Dow. On the price chart, the stock broke out of a triangle consolidation with a sharp advance in mid September and then fell back over the last two weeks. Prices are holding above the breakout zone (gray area) and this means the breakout remains bullish. Short-term, a small falling wedge formed and MMM is on the verge of breaking the upper line. The indicator window shows the Accumulation Distribution Line (ACDL) hitting a new high today and this means buying pressure remains strong. A close below 205 on the price chart would warrant a re-evaluation. 

Follow me on Twitter @arthurhill  - Keep up with my 140 character commentaries.

****************************************
Thanks for tuning in and have a good day!
--Arthur Hill CMT

Plan your Trade and Trade your Plan
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