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Rally Fireworks - TLT Generates New PMO BUY Signal - ST BUY Signals Finally Arrive for NDX

by Erin Heim

Fireworks, indeed. The markets soared today and consequently, the NDX finally was able to shed its bearish short-term signals. The 5-EMA crossed above the 20-EMA which generated the ST Trend Model BUY signal and the PMO crossed above its signal line which triggered the PMO BUY signal. The NDX chart is below the Scoreboards. Bonds look like they are ready to bottom. I'll write about that in...  Read More

Gold Gets Tricky

by Greg Schnell

Gold has been working its way lower since July. Gold miners have been dropping since August. Currently the ratio of the Miners to the Precious Metal is clearly in a downtrend that is being tested today. I will try to cover off more about Gold on Thursday's Webinar Commodities Countdown 2016-12-08. Also, we need to look...  Read More

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AUTO PARTS LEAD CYCLICALS HIGHER -- LEADERS INCLUDE BORGWARNER, MAGNA INTL, AND TENNOCO AUTOMOTIVE

by John Murphy

AUTO PARTS INDEX TURNS UP... My message from last Thursday was headlined: "Autos Drive Cyclicals Higher". It showed an index of auto stocks achieving a bullish breakout led by GM and Ford. Auto parts are today's cyclical leaders. That shouldn't be surprising since they're both tracking the same industry which is benefiting from the recent rotation into economically-sensitive parts of the...  Read More

Can Apple Follow through on Weekly Reversal? AAPL

by Arthur Hill

Apple (AAPL) reversed its long-term downtrend with a series of breakouts this summer and the stock is currently trading over 20% above its May low. Notice how the stock broke the early June high, the red trend line and the 40-week EMA with a surge in July-August. The 10-week EMA also crossed above the 40-week EMA in August. Even though the stock underperformed in October-November, Apple found...  Read More

The German DAX Surges, Joins S&P 500 In Breakout Mode

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, December 6, 2016 I've been waiting to see if the German DAX would join the S&P 500 in breakout territory and, thus far, I'm getting my answer today with the DAX currently up 155 points, or 1.44%, this morning which cleared 2016 overhead resistance at 10800.  Here's a look at that breakout and the significance: The chart above does NOT...  Read More

Bunge (BD) Does Some Jumping

by Greg Schnell

There have been some Agriculture related stocks pushing to new 52 week highs recently. I wrote about Agrium (AGU.TO, AGU) recently. Today, Bunge (BD) jumped up to a 52-week high. This $10 Billion market cap company has just completed a one-year base and looks set to move higher. I usually like the SCTR to break into the top quadrant (above 75%) in relative...  Read More

Revisit to Natural Gas (UNG) - New IT BUY Signal and Using Gaps to Set Stops

by Erin Heim

I recently received a tweet (follow me on Twitter @ _DecisionPoint) thanking me for an updated chart of UNG on November 21st which helped him bag a 20% gain. Back in late October, I wrote an article on Natural  Read More

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The Next Two Months Will Be Critical For Gold

by Martin Pring

Will the current short-term oversold level in Gold trigger a rally to reverse long-term bear signals? Gold leads commodities Gold breaks down against some commodities Will the current short-term oversold trigger a sufficient rally to reverse long-term bear signals? Earlier in the year $GOLD proved to be one of the best investments on the board, but...  Read More

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Rally On, Garth - USO Declines, Oil Balks at Resistance

by Erin Heim

No changes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. Unless the market takes a serious turn, I wouldn't expect to see any changes. However, we are waiting for some BUY signals to appear in the short-term for the NDX. Oil is pulling back after unsuccessfully testing overhead resistance. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal  Read More

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Time to Go Slow on XLF, XLI and KRE? - Channel Target for XME - Webinar Video

by Arthur Hill

  -----   Webinar Video   -----   Art's Charts ChartList    -----      Slow Down Time for XLF, XLI, and KRE? .... XME Target Based on Rising Channel .... Broken Resistance Turns First Support for XES .... EuroTop  Read More

Crude Oil Again Challenging Major Breakout; Renewables Bottoming

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, December 5, 2016 Financials (XLF, +1.19%) were back on top of the sector leaderboard on Monday after taking a "lengthy" one day pause.  It's been a crazy run for financial stocks and we're growing accustomed to the almost daily gains in banks ($DJUSBK), life insurance ($DJUSIL), investment services ($DJUSSB) and asset managers ($DJUSAG)...  Read More

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Bounce After Pause - New ITTM BUY Signal for USO

by Erin Heim

Today saw higher prices in all of the DecisionPoint Scoreboard indexes preventing any new signals. The NDX hasn't given up its short-term bearish signals, but more days like today and it won't be long. The indexes (minus the Dow) took a pause last week and now are resuming the rally. USO had a positive 20/50-EMA crossover to generate a new BUY signal. Looking at the chart, I think it  Read More

Recognize Platform Compression Patterns for Early Entries

by Martha Stokes

Trade with the Professional Traders for Higher Profits The stock for PacWest Bancorp (PACW: NASDAQ) recently had a strong "Pop Out of the Box" candlestick pattern, after a Platform compression pattern. Preceding the compression from August – October, the price action was a Trading Range. Often times Trading Ranges compress into a tighter formation when...  Read More

Market Breadth and Technical Analysis

by Greg Morris

Some of the following is from my book, " The Complete Guide to Market Breadth Indicators," published by McGraw-Hill in 2005, with the  Read More

Italian and German Indexes Battle Different Sides of Key Moving Average

by Arthur Hill

The chart below shows year-to-date price action for the Milan Index ($MIB) and German DAX Index ($DAX). Note that the MIB is down around 22% year-to-date and the DAX is down around 2% since January. In contrast, the S&P 500 is up around 6% so far this year. The next directional move for European stocks could hinge on these two indexes. The Milan Index is in a downtrend overall and just  Read More

TNX Hits Resistance, Financials Sell

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, December 2, 2016 Friday saw continuing bifurcation, but with this time the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 leading while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 lagged.  Rotation wasn't all positive, however, as utilities (XLU, +0.91%) and consumer staples (XLP, +0.64%) led the rally.  Financials (XLF, -1.09%), on the other hand, finally saw some relief  Read More

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A Bull Flag for IWM - Short-Term RSI Setup for QQQ - 3 Sector SPDR Setups - ChartList Update (13 Stocks)

by Arthur Hill

An RSI(5) Setup for QQQ .... IWM Corrects with Bull Flag .... Three Sector SPDRs with Short-term Bullish Setups .... Biotechs Hold the Key to Healthcare .... ChartList Update .... QCOM, SYMC, ACN, ATI, AVGO, CHKP, CTRL, AMGN, BMY, MRK, PFE, TASR and XOM .... //// ....       An RSI(5) Setup for QQQ  QQQ plunged on Wednesday-Thursday and RSI(5) moved below 30 for a...  Read More

Very clear rotational picture in US sectors! Watching XLE, XLI and XLB for opportunities

by Julius de Kempenaer

The Relative Rotation Graph above shows the rotational picture for US sectors. For a change the rotations are well defined and clearly visible, which immediately raises the question; " For how long?" I will try to answer the question, but no-one ever said it was easy.. ;) Summary Well defined sector rotation at the moment Avoid Utilities, Staples and Health Care as they push deeper  Read More

Weekly MACD Turns Negative On This Group For First Time In Five Years

by Tom Bowley

I pulled up one month returns for all industry groups and there were several groups that have performed quite poorly over this period, despite the overall market strength.  Toys ($DJUSTY) are down 6.78% over the last month, but a negative divergence on its weekly chart is likely the culprit.  Internet stocks ($DJUSNS) have fallen 4.59%, but the pullback to 1100 was somewhat warranted...  Read More

SPY: Is the Trump Rally Pausing or Over?

by Carl Swenlin

 The market has rallied about +6.5% from the November low, but less than half of that can be attributed to the election results. As of the close on Tuesday, November 8, it was widely believed that Clinton would be the winner. When the opposite result emerged, the market rallied an additional +3.6%. By itself, this was not a spectacular advance, and a pullback began after Wednesday's  Read More

Why Point and Figure Works

by Bruce Fraser

We are often asked to explain the rationale for why the horizontal Point and Figure (PnF) method works for estimating price objectives. The horizontal PnF method which requires judgment and nuance to employ, is rarely used these days, yet it works surprisingly well. The judgment required is in knowing how much of the horizontal congestion area to count for the purposes of estimating how far a...  Read More

ChartLists Are The Key To Disciplined And Successful Trading

by Tom Bowley

I spend a great deal of time scouring the market and looking for interesting trade setups.  It's quite often that I see a stock that I really like, but it's not at a price level where I'm ready to pull the trigger.  If I move onto the next chart, chances are that prior chart will be gone until.....I see it days or weeks later and it's made a big move that I was anticipating...  Read More

Rotation Continues Into Value Stocks, Financials and Energy Still Look Cheap

by John Murphy

Two days after the election (November 10), I wrote a message entitled: "Rotation Out of Growth Stocks into Value Stocks Causes Profit-taking in Technology". We're seeing a replay of that rotation again this week as technology stocks are underperforming the market while financials, energy, and industrials surge. Chart 1 compares the move to new highs in the S&P 500 Value ETF (black bars) to...  Read More

Taking Advantage of Good Luck

by John Hopkins

Every once in a while the gods of trading look out for us and reward our perseverance, a little bone for all of those trades that don't turn out so well. When one of these opportunities takes place you should be prepared to take advantage of these rare gifts by pocketing profits when you can.   As an example, we issued a trade alert to our members this past week on HLX. We issued the alert...  Read More

Sum of the Parts Analysis for the S&P 500

by Arthur Hill

The whole is only as strong as the sum of its parts. Applying this logic to the stock market, the S&P 500 represents the whole and the nine sector SPDRs represent the sum of the parts. Let's see just how strong the parts of the S&P 500 are. The chart below shows SPY and the nine sector SPDRs. The sector charts are sorted by the percentage above the 200-day EMA with the highest at the  Read More

Is There A Holiday Present For Gold Investors Here?

by Greg Schnell

Gold has dropped into the very unloved category. There is a great quote that interests me when we get technical setups like this.  " I believe the very best money is made at market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I  Read More

Weakened NDX Triggers Two Short-Term Bearish Signals

by Erin Heim

The daily chart of the Nasdaq 100 doesn't really resemble any of the other large-cap indexes or even most small-cap indexes. Technology sectors have performed terribly. The Election "euphoria" enjoyed by the Dow Industrials and most other indexes really didn't do much for tech. Consequently, the NDX has triggered a Short-Term  Read More

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Short-Term Decline - USO Busts Head & Shoulders

by Erin Heim

The Nasdaq 100 generated two new bearish signals in the short term this week. The weakness in technology has really hurt the index. Meanwhile the Dow continues to impress. It really hasn't pulled back like the other indexes. I've included both charts below for your review. For more analysis, I will be writing a ChartWatchers article this weekend about the Nasdaq 100 in particular, you...  Read More

When Oil And Natural Gas Soar - Webinar Skim 2016-12-01

by Greg Schnell

With all of the news from OPEC, Crude Oil ($WTIC) had a massive move this week. This is the highest weekly close since July 2015. The 12% move definitely got everyone's attention. The real debate for December is whether or not it can hold the breakout and keep moving up to $60. The volume was also very solid. That sort of confirmation is very bullish. Natural  Read More

Is Tesla (TSLA) About To Hit The Ditch?

by Greg Schnell

On a week where GM and Ford had nice positive pushes, Tesla (TSLA) fell almost 8%.  So how do we handle Tesla from here? It looks to me that Tesla is testing this major support area after breaking it back in January. How investors treat the stock is critical at this juncture. First of all, the SCTR is under 5. So 95% of the stocks are behaving better than TSLA. That's a...  Read More

Charts I'm Stalking: Action Practice #7

by Gatis Roze

I've analyzed over one million charts.  That's not  bravado, just math.  A hundred to two hundred charts a day (most days) for over 25 years, and that's the number you reach.  I share this because chart reading practice has indeed allowed me to train my eye in such a away that it allows me to wring an astonishing amount of information from a one-page chart.  Cultivating...  Read More

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QQQ Lags, but Remains Bullish - Downloading Data and Creating Indexes - The Case for a Grind Higher

by Arthur Hill

Charting 52-week Highs on SPY .... QQQ Lags, but Chart Remains Bullish .... Downloading Data and Creating User-Defined Indexes .... Small-caps Ripe for Rest, but Still Bullish .... Top Ten Large-caps are Greater than All Small-caps .... The Case for a Grind Higher .... Scanning for Percent Above/Below EMA .... //// ....       Charting 52-week Highs on SPY  The S&P 500 is...  Read More

Technology Crushed, NASDAQ Lags Badly

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, December 1, 2016 It was another very strange day on Wall Street.  The Dow Jones finished the session Thursday with a gain of 68 points, closing at 19192 and another all-time high.  The NASDAQ appeared to be trading in another world as technology was crushed, leading to a loss of 73 points on the NASDAQ.  Financials (XLF, +1.73%) and...  Read More

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Trump Rally Takes a Break

by Carl Swenlin

Carl is filling in for Erin today. Today the Dow made a new, all-time closing high, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulled back, forming clear tops. Crude continues to rally. The Nasdaq 100 5EMA crossed down through the 20EMA, generating a Short-Term Trend Model NEUTRAL signal. While other major indexes have enjoyed post-election gains, $NDX has dribbled sideways and has...  Read More

Waiting On This Inverse Head & Shoulder Breakout

by Tom Bowley

Xilinx (XLNX) is a $13.5 billion semiconductor company and it nearly broke out of a very bullish inverse head & shoulders pattern on heavy volume today.  But it didn't.  Instead, it reversed lower along with most semiconductor stocks and tested its rising 20 day EMA.  The technical picture here still remains quite bullish as you can see from the chart below: The biggest  Read More

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AUTOS DRIVE CYCLICALS HIGHER -- GENERAL MOTORS HAS THE STRONGER PATTERN

by John Murphy

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH ... One of the signs of growing strength behind the post-election stock market rally is that it's being led higher by economically-sensitive stocks like cyclicals and industrials. [We'll deal with industrials shortly]. Chart 1 shows the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) finding support along its August high near 82...  Read More

Crude Oil Surges 9%, Lifts Energy Stocks

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, November 30, 2016 Crude oil ($WTIC) rose more than 9% on Wednesday and energy shares (XLE, +5.08%) were the beneficiary.  Rising treasury yields also helped to lift the financial sector (XLF, +1.35%) with banks ($DJUSBK) storming to another high.  But the bifurcation was quite apparent in many areas of the market.  Despite a late day...  Read More

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SPY is Last One Standing - XLF Defines Overbought Readings - Adjusting RSI for Trend Identification

by Arthur Hill

SPY is the Last One Standing .... XLF Defies Overbought Readings .... Materials Follows thru on Pennant Breakout .... Bigger Uptrend Overpowers Short-term Dip in XLE .... Adjusting RSI for Trend Identification .... Healthcare Remains Under Pressure .... //// .... SPY is the Last One Standing      Modest selling pressure over the last three days triggered Chandelier Exits in IWM  Read More

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Monthly Chart Review - Record Intraday Highs Broken, But Ends in Decline - Bonds Long-Term PMO SELL Signal

by Erin Heim

New record highs were put in for many today, but nearly all closed lower on the day. In today's webinar I went over how most indexes are now experiencing closes below their 5-EMAs for the first time since the post-election boost. I'll be reviewing monthly charts that went final today, including the 30-year Treasuries which just logged a Long-Term PMO SELL signal. The purpose of  Read More

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Are We At The End Of The Trump Rally?

by Martin Pring

A different way of looking at the VIX What about global equities? Sectors are largely pointing north Are commodities about to break out? The market has been rising in an uninterrupted fashion since early November, on the back of a Trump election victory. The question naturally arises as to whether it's time to fold 'em, or should we continue to hold on. The short answer is that this is the  Read More