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Trading Places with Tom Bowley

Gold Strengthening As Dollar Faces Major Test Of Support

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, May 3, 2016 Energy (XLE) was hit hard on Tuesday as all nine sectors retreated.  But the XLE's drop of 2.36% was notable as it nears a key short-term price support level and its rising 20 day EMA, both generally strong areas during an uptrend.  Here's a current look at the XLE, visually identifying support to watch in the latter half of this...  Read More

DecisionPoint

Percent Buy Index (PBI) - Excellent Compass in Volatile Times

by Erin Heim

I received an email from a reader "thanking" me for a lucrative trade that he based off of the Thrust/Trend Model. In actuality, it turned out he used the  Read More

Tue, May 03

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DecisionPoint Alert

Initial Losses Pared But Decline Holds - Gold's Ascent Slowing

by Erin Heim

With the latest decline, all four indexes lost their PMO BUY signals. Next up was the NDX which added a Short-Term Trend Model Neutral signal. This week's first change to the Scoreboards is a Short-Term Trend Model Neutral signal on the OEX. You'll note on its chart below the Scoreboards that the 5-EMA had a negative crossover the 20-EMA. This triggers a new STTM 'negative' signal. Since the...  Read More

Wyckoff Power Charting

Current Point and Figure Counts

by Bruce Fraser

The concept of Cause and Effect is at work in markets constantly. This Wyckoff Law is codified and measured using Point and Figure charts. These charts are robust tools for measuring market potential or cause that has been built and then expended. Let's take a survey of the current market with PnF charts and look for a theme. The Dow Jones Industrial Average PnF is constructed with daily data  Read More

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Market Message

GLOBAL STOCKS SLIDE AS MONEY MOVES INTO TREASURIES -- STAPLES AND UTILITIES SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH

by John Murphy

SHORT-TERM STOCK PULLBACK DEEPENS... Global stocks are continuing the pullback that started last week. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 heading down toward a test of its early April low and/or its moving average lines. The 14-day RSI line (top of chart) has slipped below the 50 line which suggests a deeper pullback. MACD lines (below chart) are slipping as well. The day's...  Read More

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Art's Charts

Techs Continue to Weigh - Utilities are Actually Leading - Materials are Most Extended - Webinar Video

by Arthur Hill

SPDRs versus Equal-weight Sectors    //    Three Long-term Sector Laggards     //    Two Long-term Sector Leaders    //    Technology and Consumer Discretionary Weigh    //    Marking Key Support for Finance, Industrials and Healthcare    //    Staples and Utilities Still Leading on Price Charts...  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

iRobot (IRBT) Moves To The Next Floor

by Greg Schnell

Having a Roomba has been a simple pleasure. Roomba is a robotic vacuum for your home so you can golf instead of vacuum. iRobot (IRBT) is the parent company. The company has an interesting chart this week. After spending two years in a subtle downtrend, IRBT recently started perking up. The SCTR (small cap) ranking topped 75 in December, recently pulled back and now seems...  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

Consumer Stocks Lead U.S. Equities Higher

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, May 2, 2016 Consumer discretionary (XLY) and consumer staples (XLP) were the sector leaders on Monday as they posted gains of 1.40% and 1.15%, respectively.  But like so many areas of the market, even sizable gains and market leadership come with warning signs and caution flags.  With the XLY, one quick look at the chart summarizes the issues...  Read More

Mon, May 02

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DecisionPoint Alert

Rally to Open the Week - Dollar Searches for Support

by Erin Heim

There again were no changes to the DecisionPoint Scoreboards today. Looking more closely at the boards, note that short-term momentum (PMO) is negative. However, currently short-term trends are positive (except that NDX). I recommend you call up the charts and review the location of the PMO on these indexes. I'll cover the Dollar in its section below. The purpose of the  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Three White Soldiers or a Bear Flag for TLT?

by Arthur Hill

The first week of the month is always a big week for Treasury bonds and the 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (TLT). There are always a slew of key economic reports and the employment report is usually the first Friday of the month. I am not going to get into the economic quicksand, but I will take a stab at the price chart for TLT. First, the bigger picture shows a steep advance from late December to early...  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

Is It Time To Sell In May And Go Away?

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, April 29, 2016 The U.S. stock market suffered further damage on Friday as all of our major indices ended lower.  There were a few bright spots despite the NASDAQ losing more than its fair share and closing at its lowest level in more than a month.  Amazon.com's (AMZN) stellar quarterly earnings report provided broadline retailers ($DJUSRB) a...  Read More

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Art's Charts

Is this a Correction or More? - Breadth Softens - A Battle Zone Brews for IWM - A Clear Level for SPY

by Arthur Hill

Putting the Pullback into Perspective    //    Breadth Softens, but Bullish Signals Remain    //    New Highs Dwindle, but Stay Net Positive    //    The Key Level for SPY is Obvious    //    A Battle Zone Brews for IWM    //    A Bull Flag for QQQ?    ////    .......  ...  Read More

Sun, May 01

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DecisionPoint Alert

Monthly Chart Review - Bearish Implications - Gold Surges

by Erin Heim

Today is a busy day: the weekly and monthly charts went final. Therefore we have a LOT of charts to review. The DecisionPoint Scoreboards lay it out clearly. Momentum is sagging in the short term, yet rising in the intermediate term, at the same time, the long-term is very bearish.  The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action,  Read More

Sat, Apr 30

DecisionPoint

Six-Month Favorable Seasonality Period Has Ended

by Carl Swenlin

Research published by Yale Hirsch in the Stock Trader's Almanac shows that the market year is broken into two six-month seasonality periods. The period from May 1 through October 31 is seasonally unfavorable, and the market most often finishes lower than it was at the beginning of the period. The period from November 1 through April 30 is seasonally favorable, and the market most often finishes...  Read More

RRG Charts

Trouble in Tech but opportunities in Energy

by Julius de Kempenaer

This Relative Rotation Graph holds the constituents of the Dow Jones Industrials Average ($INDU) and shows the position and movement of their relative trends against $INDU and each other. In this article, I will focus on the movements in the technology- and the energy sectors and briefly touch on financials. Summary Financials showing weakest relative trend on a sector level AXP running  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

It's Not Wise To Chase Gaps

by Tom Bowley

You have to keep in mind that when everyone wants to buy a stock (or sell a stock), it's the market makers job to provide liquidity and take the other side of the trade.  That's why so often we see stocks gap higher or lower from the previous close, only to "fill the gap" and return to that prior day's close.  As an example, check out Citrix Systems (CTXS).  After...  Read More

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Market Message

DOLLAR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS EURO AND YEN RALLY -- THAT FAVORS HIGHER COMMODITY PRICES, AND GOLD IN PARTICULAR

by John Murphy

DOLLAR INDEX TESTS SUMMER LOW... The decline in the U.S. dollar continued this past week. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the US Dollar Index ($USD) falling to the lowest level since last summer. That was its lowest close since the start of 2015. Part of the dollar selling came from the Fed's dovish tone at this week's meeting. Some of it also came from a first quarter  Read More

Fri, Apr 29

Wyckoff Power Charting

Trading the Reaccumulation

by Bruce Fraser

When a stock enters a robust uptrend it can go on for a long period of time, for years in some cases. But eventually even the best uptrend needs a rest. Leading up to this pause, the ownership quality of the float deteriorates. Strong handed Composite Operators lock up much of the float at the beginning of a new uptrend. Then as the trend matures, stock finds its way into weaker and weaker  Read More

The Traders Journal

ChartPack Quarterly Update: Over 100 New Enhancements (v 8.0)

by Gatis Roze

Visual Analysis on Steroids I am a big believer that investing should be fun and need not eat up all my time.  One element I've found that makes it more so is creating colorful and visually alluring charts.  To this end, present ChartPack users will therefore notice that over 100 charts have been improved with more distinctive presentation and attractive colorization...  Read More

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Art's Charts

Semis Lead Tech Breakdown - Retail Weighs on Discretionary - Adding MACD and Bonds to Best Seven Months Strategy

by Arthur Hill

Semis Lead Tech Breakdown    //    Retail Leads EW Consumer Discretionary Lower    //    Adding MACD to the Best Seven Months Strategy    //    Adding Bonds for a Rotational Seven Month Strategy    //    Friday Food for Thought    ////    .......     Semis Lead Tech...  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

PACCAR (PACR) Moves Above Resistance - Why You Should Know

by Greg Schnell

PACCAR (PACR) represents an important link in the movement of goods. PACCAR is the parent company of Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF. Trucking companies buy new trucks to replace the old fleet as it wears out and they add additional units when they have new demand. When investors are anticipating a build on the PACCAR order book, this can be an early indicator of new trucking demand. The chart  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

Dow Drops 200 Points; U.S. Futures Lower

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, April 28, 2016 U.S. indices tumbled on Thursday, the day after central bankers temporarily closed the candy store.  Neither the Federal Reserve here in the U.S. nor Bank of Japan offered up any stimulus that traders could wrap their arms around and amid signs of slowing momentum decided to move to the sidelines. Energy (XLE), the strongest sector...  Read More

Thu, Apr 28

Commodities Countdown

Commodity Charts Continue To Climb - Webinar Highlights 2016-04-28

by Greg Schnell

In a day where the 60-minute charts of the indexes were rattled, the commodities had another great day. In today's webinar, I demonstrated major changes in the energy and material stocks. You can watch the video here. "Commodities Countdown LIVE!" with Greg Schnell - 2016-04-28 17:00 from  Read More

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DecisionPoint Alert

Bears Take the Reins - Dollar Reaches Important Support

by Erin Heim

The market took a hit today as the bears took the reins and directed price back down the hill. The Nasdaq 100 which has not been enjoying the same rally of the other indexes, suffered greatly today. Apple took a huge hit when investors found out that Carl Icahn doesn't own any of its stock which brought the index down. This wreaked the same havoc on the Dow Industrials. Despite the wild ride...  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

This Small Technology Company Is Drifting Back To Support

by Tom Bowley

When a stock breaks out to fresh highs with light volume, a negative divergence and overbought oscillators, you need to be on high alert for a period of selling.  That's exactly the signal that ORBCOMM (ORBC) provided astute traders as we entered April.  Since that time ORBC has pulled back approximately 9% and is approaching key price support and its rising 50 day SMA.  I would...  Read More

The Canadian Technician

Energy Stocks Continue To Be Added To Canada's Top Performers

by Greg Schnell

The momentum continues to surge towards the energy sector and now the oil services sector. If you have not seen the change in momentum, I'll be hosting a Commodities Countdown webinar 2016-04-28 and you can click on this link to register. Here are a few more stocks adding to the momentum. ARC Resources...Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Jacob's Engineering Hits That Line In The Screen - JEC

by Greg Schnell

The story that stocks stop at resistance couldn't be demonstrated more clearly than reviewing this Jacob's Engineering (JEC) chart. This stock has stopped 9 times rallying to $45.00 and broke through it once in April 2015 only to gap down below it and get stuck under $45 for a year!  Today we are testing it again. With the steadily improving trend on the SCTR, this looks...  Read More

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Art's Charts

Generals Diverge from Troops - XLI Leads - XSD Breaks Out - Dollar, Yen, Gold & Oil

by Arthur Hill

Generals Not Following the Troops    //    Unfilled Gaps Haunt QQQ   //    SPY Set to Test Gap Zone    //    IWM is the Current Leader    //    XLI Leads with New High    //    Three Strong Groups within Technology...  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

Energy And Utilities Lead Market After FedSpeak

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, April 27, 2016 Well another FOMC meeting has come and gone.  Not much has changed really.  The Fed still seems adamant about raising rates, but they're not sure as to the timing.  The next meeting in June is a real possibility, but they're non-committal.  The reaction to the meeting was interesting.  Money rotated mostly  Read More

Wed, Apr 27

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DecisionPoint Alert

Pullback Reprieve - Oil Breaks Out

by Erin Heim

No new signal changes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. Not a surprise as most of the indexes are recapturing some of last week's losses. If the rally continues, we will likely see the ST PMO signals switch once again as momentum moves more positive and triggers crossovers. I'll discuss Oil in its section below. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review  Read More

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Martin Pring's Market Roundup

Bearish Dollar Index Signal Has Major Implications For All Kinds Of Markets And Relationships

by Martin Pring

Changes in key relationships Implications for specific stock sectors of a declining dollar The US versus the world At this week's Market Roundup webinar, I suggested that we had reached an inflexion point for many markets as well as several Intermarket and inter-asset relationships. That inflexion point centered on a change in the primary trend of the US Dollar Index. You could argue that it's...  Read More

Dancing with the Trend

Candlestick Analysis - Filtering

by Greg Morris

Candle pattern filtering offers a method of trading with candlesticks that is complemented by other popular technical tools for analysis.  Filtering is a concept that has been used in many other forms of technical analysis and is now a proven method with candle patterns. Since any one indicator on its own can have inherent flaws, the synergy created by combining different methods of price...  Read More

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Market Message

VALUE ISHARES CONTINUE TO OUTPACE GROWTH ISHARES WHICH ARE BEING PULLED DOWN BY TECHNOLOGY SELLING -- BUT FINANCIALS, HEALTHCARE, ENERGY, AND INDUSTRIALS SECTORS ARE RISING

by John Murphy

ROTATION FROM GROWTH TO VALUE CONTINUES... Last Thursday I wrote about a rotation from "growth stocks" which rely on growing earnings into "value stocks" that are viewed as relatively cheap. That rotation is continuing. Chart 1 shows the S&P Value iShares (IVE) trading at a nine-month high after clearing its fourth quarter high. The IVE/SPX ratio...  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

The Other QQQ is Still Holding Up

by Arthur Hill

The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) is one of the weakest of the major index ETFs right now because of several large-caps within the ETF. Note that Apple (-10%), Facebook (-6%), Google (-6.5%) and Microsoft (-8%) are all down sharply this month. Amazon (+2%) is the only one of the big five that is up.  The four losers account for around 35% of QQQ and AMZN accounts for 5.5%. Weakness in these four is...  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

Apple Crushed After Earnings, NASDAQ Futures Tank

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, April 26, 2016 April has not been kind to technology stocks (XLK).  We've seen several key earnings disappointments from the group, including Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Apple (AAPL), and investors in those three are not happy.  We've seen bifurcated action throughout April where energy (XLE), materials (XLB) and financials...  Read More

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Art's Charts

Testing the Best Six Months Strategy and a Classic Moving Average Crossover System

by Arthur Hill

Dissecting the Best Six Months Pattern    //    Historical Numbers Confirm    //    Shorting the Market is a Challenge    //    What is the deal with October?    //    Reducing the Dreaded Drawdown    //     Testing the 50-200 Cross Since 1950    //    Final Thoughts  ...  Read More

Tue, Apr 26

DecisionPoint

Four Signs that a Bull Market is Upon Us

by Erin Heim

During last Friday's webinar, I attempted to answer the "$64 Million Dollar Question" (For old-timers like me who know it was the $64,000 Question, I chose to use poetic license because $64,000 sounds lame by today's standards!) that readers and viewers have inundated me with. I imagine you know the question, although the title clearly gives it away. "Is a new Bull  Read More

Commodities Countdown

The Electric Car Needs Lithium. Does Your Portfolio?

by Greg Schnell

Lithium is not a well-known industry group. However, with the attention towards electric cars and distributed power in neighborhoods, the market is currently fixated on energy storage. Elon Musk, President of Tesla, is also doing his best to drive it to center stage. With the all-out giddiness towards the Tesla, cars like the Volt, Leaf, and Prius seem relegated to the back of the theater...  Read More

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DecisionPoint Alert

Two New Bearish Signals - Dollar and Bonds Near Important Support

by Erin Heim

The pullback has affected the DecisionPoint Scoreboards quite a bit this week. Yesterday saw two new ST PMO SELL signals arrive on the Dow and SPX; today, we've added a ST PMO SELL signal on the OEX and a new ST Trend Model Neutral on the NDX. Remember, a "neutral" signal is generated in the short term when the 5-EMA crosses below the 20-EMA while the 20-EMA is above the 50-EMA. The  Read More

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Market Message

COMMODITIES ETF CHALLENGES 200-DAY AVERAGE WHICH MAY BE PULLING TREASURY BOND YIELDS HIGHER -- HIGHER YIELDS ARE HELPING FINANCIALS

by John Murphy

RISING COMMODITIES PULL BOND YIELDS HIGHER... The rally in commodity markets may be about to move into higher gear. Chart 1 shows the DB Commodities Tracking Index Fund (DBC) on the verge of moving above its 200-day average for the first time in two years. A weaker dollar is one of the reasons why. The commodity rally is continuing to support rallies in energy and...  Read More

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