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John Murphy's Market Message     Click here to read his latest post

RRG Charts

Real Estate shines, Stocks are still good, US stocks are even better.

by Julius de Kempenaer

The Relative Rotation Graph below shows the rotation for various asset classes (through ETFs) against the Vanguard Balanced Index fund (VBINX) on a weekly basis. The picture is pretty conclusive for some asset classes but less so for others. Zooming in on the daily time-frame, usually, helps to add a bit more info and color to the weekly reading of the RRG. The RRG of international stock...  Read More

DecisionPoint

Bull Market: How Old Is It?

by Carl Swenlin

The stock market (SPY) has: (1) advanced over +20% from its February low, (2) after breakout, advanced +4% above the top its one-year continuation pattern (consolidation), and (3) generated a DecisionPoint IT Trend Model BUY signal on March 7, 2016. By my reckoning, the bull market is at least five months old, although, that could not be confirmed until the recent breakout. Note that...  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Here Are The Two Best Performing Industry Groups In August

by Tom Bowley

The summer months can be very difficult for U.S. equities, as history has proven over time.  But there's always a bull market somewhere and the consumer electronics space seems to find a sweet spot in August.  There are only two industry groups that average more than 5% monthly gains during August.  One is the Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Electronics Index (+7.5% over the past...  Read More

Commodities Countdown

Sitting In A European Bank Waiting Room - Webinar Skim 2016-07-21

by Greg Schnell

It's been a month since the Brexit storm rolled through the world's charts. Amazingly, it turned out to be one of the best times to put money to work. One of the blogs I wrote shortly after the Brexit event covered off the global banking charts. When Should  Read More

Sat, Jul 23

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Market Message

TECHNOLOGY SHOWS NEW MARKET LEADERSHIP -- EBAY, MICROSOFT, AND QUALCOMM GAP HIGHER

by John Murphy

TECHNOLOGY SPDR SHOWS NEW LEADERSHIP... Stocks had another good week with the Dow and S&P 500 ending Friday at new records. One of the other positive developments was new upside leadership by technology which was the week's strongest sector. Chart 1 shows the Technology Sector SPDR (XLK) hitting a new record high at midweek. That strong price performance was matched...  Read More

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Art's Charts

SystemTrader - Testing and Improving the 5-day RSI Mean Reversion System with the Sector SPDRs

by Arthur Hill

SystemTrader     //     System Rules and Conditions     //     Why 5-day RSI?     //   Testing with S&P 500 Trend Condition     //    Surviving Some Bad Signals    //   Sensitivity Testing   //    Reducing the MDD with Another Trend Condition     //    Testing Each  Read More

Fri, Jul 22

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DecisionPoint Alert

Consolidation Helps Overbought Indicators Unwind

by Erin Heim

The market was up today but did not reach or close on all-time highs, just more consolidation and some topping action. Short-Term indicators are looking good, but intermediate-term there could be some problems. The DP Scoreboards show no change. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of  Read More

Wyckoff Power Charting

Point and Figure Pie in the Sky?

by Bruce Fraser

During the bear market that ended in 2009, the broad market indexes traced out a large base. Using the horizontal Point and Figure counting methodology, a Wyckoffian could generate a very large price objective. The countline was at the 8,100 level on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with a low of 6,500. Once the Accumulation zone was completed the price projection was a range of 17,600 to...  Read More

The Traders Journal

ChartPack Quarterly Updates & Insights 200 New Enhancements (Version 8.25)

by Gatis Roze

The last three months since Wiley published our book, Tensile Trading, has given us a unique opportunity to talk with many investors.  In doing so, we've been able to discuss with them the big picture challenges of managing one's assets, as well as hear unique testimonials extolling the organizational value of the ChartPack.   The most common refrains we hear from...  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

Can Tires Rebound To Make It A Good Year?

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, July 21, 2016 Aggressive sectors took a break on Thursday, as did the overall market.  The S&P 500 saw its most intraday weakness since breaking out above 2131 to all-time highs more than a week ago.  Technically, however, there was little damage done.  In fact, it certainly could be argued that the selling was necessary to unwind  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Carmax (KMX) Drives Off The Lot

by Greg Schnell

Carmax (KMX) has a great technical chart today. With the SCTR soaring to 88, the price action shows it is one of the best stocks out there. But there is a little more history on the SCTR that is important. One of the best parts about the SCTR is we can look at how it performs relative to its peers over time. To my knowledge, this is the only plottable indicator that keeps track...  Read More

Thu, Jul 21

DecisionPoint

Halfway to Bond Timer of the Year

by Erin Heim

DecisionPoint timing models are tracked by Timer Digest, a professional journal for technical analysis timing. Per their website, "Timer Digest monitors over 100 of the nations leading market timing models, ranking the top stock, bond, and gold timers according to the performance of their recommendations over the previous 52...  Read More

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DecisionPoint Alert

Rounded Top - Short-Term Indicators Nearing Neutral

by Erin Heim

The market does appear to have stalled or at least has stopped for a pause. A rounded top is bearish but short-term indicators moving neutral quickly is bullish. I'll explain why further down. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the nine SPDR Sectors,  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Encana Breaks Downtrend On Strength Of Earnings

by Tom Bowley

Actually, Encana (ECA) has broken two downtrends - a short-term trend and a long-term trend.  ECA hit its all-time high of roughly 42.50 just  before this bull market began.  Shareholders of ECA haven't seen much bullish action since this seven year bull market began, but technically things are improving on both their daily and weekly charts.  Check  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

Electronics And Software Lead Technology Rally

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, July 20, 2016 Technology (XLK, +1.31%) had another huge day on Wednesday as consumer electronics ($DJUSCE) and software ($DJUSSW) paced the advance.  It didn't hurt that biotechs ($DJUSBT) were up more than 1.50%, leading healthcare to outsized gains as well.  But let's get back to technology and the breakout that this aggressive sector is...  Read More

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Art's Charts

Using Raff Channel for Steep Trends - Apply Chandelier Exit to IWM - Scan Code for RSI-StochRSI Strategy - EEM Breakout

by Arthur Hill

Nothing to Do but Trail a Stop     //     Reviving the Raff Regression Channel for QQQ     //     Chandelier Exit for IWM     //     Retail Continues to Impress     //     Applying the 5-day RSI-StochRSI Strategy to IEF and TLT   //     USO, BNO and XES Stutter after Bullish Signals    ...  Read More

Wed, Jul 20

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Martin Pring's Market Roundup

What's Up/Down With The Dollar?

by Martin Pring

The Dollar Index-too heavily weighted in favor of the Euro A closer look at the long-term cross Dollar relationships What are the Dollar sympathy indicators saying? Short-term technicals The Dollar Index - Too heavily weighted in favor of the Euro A few months ago I declared the Dollar Index to be dead in the sense that it had begun a bear market. It went  Read More

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DecisionPoint Alert

Market Climbs Cautiously

by Erin Heim

A quick look at the 10-minute bar chart for the SPY shows us today's stair step rise. Indicators are at the top of their range, but that is not hindering the market all that much. The DecisionPoint Scoreboards are still bullish as is the DP Market/Sector Summary posture table which shows all sectors and markets (except for Oil and commodities in general) on BUY signals. Volume is still a...  Read More

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Market Message

HOMEBUILDERS LEAD ITB HIGHER --

by John Murphy

US HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES TURN UP ... Several of my recent messages have written about the upturn in homebuilding shares. A lot of that has been due to the drop in bond yields and mortgage rates. Improvement in the housing area is also an encouraging sign for the economy. Chart 1 shows the U.S. Home Construction iShares (ITB) recently climbing to the highest level...  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

QQQ Sets Sights on All Time High with Channel Breakout

by Arthur Hill

The surge in stocks entered its fourth week with QQQ extending its channel breakout. The chart below shows the ETF surging earlier this year and then embarking on a correction with a falling channel into June. This correction clearly ended with the breakout near 110 and this zone now becomes the first support level to watch. A strong breakout should hold so a break back below 108 would call for  Read More

Commodities Countdown

Where Is Crude Oil ($WTIC) Headed?

by Greg Schnell

Crude Oil ($WTIC) continues to drift down. After pushing up near $50 in mid-May, it took 3 weeks to finally break through, surging to $51. That breakout failed to hold and we have been grinding lower since the June 9th closing high. The numerous tests of the blue channel line have worked us up against the red downtrend. We are at a decision point. Some technically important  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

Dow Jones Sets Another Record High

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, July 19, 2016 The Dow Jones managed to close at another all-time high on Tuesday despite seven of nine sectors falling.  Most of the weakness, however, was confined to materials (XLB, -0.59%) and energy (XLE, -0.56%).  None of the other sectors fell more than 0.22%.  The two gainers included industrials (XLI, +0.05%) and financials (XLF...  Read More

Tue, Jul 19

The Canadian Technician

Canadian Pipeline Companies Under The Microscope (Part 2)

by Greg Schnell

This is the fourth article in a series about a 1700 Kilometre (over 1000 miles) road trip that I did a week ago. You can follow these links to the first three articles.  Canadian Transportation Companies Start My Tour  Read More

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DecisionPoint Alert

Steep Rising Trend Broken

by Erin Heim

The market has stalled the rally. The VIX suggests that no one is particularly worried about a correction, but there seems to be a lack of energy to push prices further. The DP Scoreboards are heavily bullish. Don't expect to see the long-term PMO SELL signals to disappear anytime soon. They are particularly slow moving and while it appears they are turning up, the margin between readings and...  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Kinder Morgan Stock Starts Flowing (KMI)

by Greg Schnell

Kinder Morgan (KMI) is a large energy transporter with pipelines and storage across North America. This vast network of systems is a key component to the energy infrastructure and flow of key commodities. After struggling with some debt ratio issues last year, the stock was beaten down. Recently, the stock was pinned in a range after bouncing off the lows. Last week, KMI broke out in classic...  Read More

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Art's Charts

SPY Leads Big 3 - Sector SPDRs Reflect Broad Market Strength - Webinar Video

by Arthur Hill

Webinar Video  SPY Continues to Lead the Big Three     //     RSI Nears 70 for IWM     //     Sector SPDRs Reflect Broad Market Strength     //     Webinar Preview - Using Breadth Indicators     //      Submit a Webinar Question...  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

After 30 Failed Attempts, This Breakout Was Finally Made

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, July 18, 2016 The action on Monday was led by the NASDAQ's 0.52% gain with technology (XLK, +0.67%) pacing the advance.  One bullish piece of technical news within the technology space was the breakout of internet stocks ($DJUSNS), which gained 2.0% on the session, clearing 1100 resistance after trading at or above 1090 on 30 occasions since...  Read More

Mon, Jul 18

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DecisionPoint Alert

New PMO SELL Signal on GOLD - New ITTM SELL Signal on Commodities ETF (GSG)

by Erin Heim

Today was a low volume, run of the mill kind of day. Price stagnated and indicators remain mostly the same as on Friday. GSG, the Commodities ETF, generated a new Intermediate-Term Trend Model SELL signal which I will go over below the Market/Sector Summary Posture table. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition,  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Small-caps Continue to Outperform Large-caps

by Arthur Hill

The S&P Small-Cap 600 has been leading the S&P 500 since mid February as a key ratio chart hit a multi-month high last week. The main window in the chart below shows the $SML:$OEX ratio, which plots the performance of the S&P Small-Cap 600 relative to the S&P LargeCap 100. This ratio rises when small-caps outperform large-caps and falls when small-caps underperform. Note that  Read More

The Canadian Technician

Canadian Pipeline Companies Under The Microscope

by Greg Schnell

Getting a pipeline approved these days is a little more difficult than it used to be. In Canada, the debates about Keystone, TransMountain, and Energy East have all been a focal point for national divisiveness. In this article, I have no plan of entering into more debate. I do want to analyze what investors think about pipeline companies right now. This is the third article in a series about a...  Read More

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Art's Charts

Using High-Low Indicators to Determine the Broad Market Trend

by Arthur Hill

TradingStrategy      //     Introduction - the Bias is Obvious     //     High-Low Percent Calculation     //     Massaging the Data with Different Indicators     //   Setting Bullish and Bearish Thresholds     //     Breaking Down the S&P 1500 for more Clues     //    ...  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

VIX Approaching Bull Market Lows

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, July 15, 2016 It was another day of bifurcation on Friday as the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 were able to eke out gains while both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ finished in negative territory.  Similar bifurcation was found among sectors with materials (XLB, +0.35%) and utilities (XLU, +0.29%) leading while consumer discretionary (XLY, -0.44%) and...  Read More

Sun, Jul 17

ChartWatchers

Wilshire 5000 Composite Index Nears Old High, Transports Play Catchup

by John Murphy

The Dow Industrials and S&P 500 continue to hit record highs. I've been showing upside breakouts in other parts of the market that include small caps and the NYSE Composite Index. Here's another one. Chart 3 shows the Wilshire 5000 Composite Index ($WLSH) having risen above its November/June highs to initiate a new uptrend. The WLSH is the broadest  Read More

ChartWatchers

Earnings Season Shifts into High Gear

by John Hopkins

The "official" start to earnings season began when Alcoa reported its numbers after the bell last Monday. The market liked what it saw and heard with AA up close to 10% by the time the week ended. We also saw some major banks report their numbers with mixed results. But that was only the tip of the iceberg as thousands of companies will be reporting their earnings over the next several weeks...  Read More

ChartWatchers

Are You A Chart Watcher?

by Chip Anderson

Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! Are you a watcher of charts?  By that I mean how much do you trust what you see on price charts?  Do you trust the charts more than the commentary/opinion of others?  Do you trust stories in the financial press more than what you see on the charts?  The reason I'm asking these seemingly straightforward questions is  Read More

ChartWatchers

Commodity Countries Reach For 52 Week Highs

by Greg Schnell

With the big push in the markets recently, global markets continue to break out to 52-week highs. Brazil hosts the world in three weeks with the Olympics. I don't think the recent Brazilian stock market ($BVSP) performance is Olympics-related, but Brazil is pushing to new 52-week highs for the first time since September 2014. The next commodity-based market to highlight is..  Read More

Sat, Jul 16

DecisionPoint

S&P 500 2016 Q1 Earnings Results: "Irrational Exuberance" Again?

by Carl Swenlin

The S&P 500 Index 2016 first quarter earnings results are in, and it is time once again to take our quarterly look at our earnings chart, which shows the S&P 500 in relation to its normal value range. (Note: The chart is a static graphic, not an active chart.) The bands on this chart show where the S&P 500 would be if it had an undervalued P/E of 10 (green), a fair...  Read More

Wyckoff Power Charting

Getting on the Gas

by Bruce Fraser

Since 2008 natural gas has been in a downtrend and has generally under-performed crude oil, common stocks and other commodities. Recent price strength for natural gas could be indicating change is in the air. Is this a sign of better days ahead or just a tease before prices sag and lag again? Let us review this market with a Wyckoffian eye and attempt to divine whether there is potential to...  Read More

Fri, Jul 15

ChartWatchers

Long-Term Cycle Chart Suggests Higher Prices

by Erin Heim

Let me first profess that I am not an avid follower of cycle charts. They generally take too much tinkering for my taste as they never quite fit over the long haul. However, as I was flipping through some of my longer-term charts, I ran into a chart I created last year. I was determining visually whether the very long-term bull and bear market cycles were telling us anything regarding that  Read More

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DecisionPoint Alert

Slow Down or Turnaround?

by Erin Heim

First, thank you, Carl, for covering for me these past two days. As usual, I leave and the market gets really interesting! We have a 3% decisive move above all-time highs, Oil gets an ITTM SELL signal, among others. The DP Scoreboards remain unchanged and as Carl mentioned earlier, the only SELL signals that remain are the monthly PMO signals. The monthly PMOs are now turning up, but they don't...  Read More