Analyzing India

March 2019

Analyzing India

Some Insights From The NIFTY Premiums

by Milan Vaishnav

As we know, a futures instrument derives its value from its respective underlying asset. For example, the NIFTY futures instrument derives its value from the NIFTY's spot price. Though the futures price and the price of its underlying move in the same direction, they do not maintain the same distance from each other. For example, the futures price may be equal to the spot price, but it can also be less than or greater from the spot price. Thus, the futures can be said to be trading at par (equal to the spot price), with a premium (greater than the spot price) or at discount (less than Read More 

Analyzing India

Week Ahead: Caution Advised for Momentum-Chasers; Stalling Of Up-Move Should Not Come As A Surprise

by Milan Vaishnav

With the session that ended Friday, March 29, 2019, the markets ended a remarkable month which remained one of the best out of the past several quarters. NIFTY ended the month on a strong note, posting a monthly gain of 831.40 points (+7.70). After taking a breather in earlier weeks, the liquidity gush that resulted out of unabated FII inflows lent some more strength to the markets this week. While it remained somewhat volatile, the benchmark index NIFTY50 ended with net gains of 167 points (+1.46%) on a weekly basis. During any such liquidity-driven rally, sometimes technicals do tend to Read More 

Analyzing India

Derivative Expiry: Options Data Point Towards This Level Being An Inflection Point For The Markets

by Milan Vaishnav

The NIFTY50 ($NIFTY) saw an unexpected surge in trading on Tuesday, ultimately ending the session with decent gains. The expiry of the current derivative series is to come up on Thursday, March 28; the Options data on NIFTY throws up some useful insights. Let's examine the 10 ATM Options for NIFTY, which expires Thursday, March 28, 2019. The picture above shows highest Call OI built up at 11500 levels. The strike price, which is where the highest Call OI is built up, often acts as resistance in the immediate short term. In all likelihood, the 11500 level is likely to pose good Read More 

Analyzing India

Week Ahead: Upsides May Remain Limited; Corrective Moves Likely From Higher Levels

by Milan Vaishnav

Following an unabated up move over the last several days, the markets finally took a breather on the last trading day of the week. After the session on Friday, the NIFTY has displayed visible signs of consolidation creeping in to the markets, which had become steeply overbought on the daily charts. As the week ended, it also highlighted the major resistance area for the markets on the weekly chart, in the form of the lower trend line of the 30-month-old upward rising channel that the NIFTY broke on the downside. In our previous weekly note, we had categorically Read More 

Analyzing India

TCS: Likely Shift of Action to IT Pack May See This Stock Relatively Outperform

by Milan Vaishnav

The IT Pack remains firmly placed in the leading quadrant of the Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) as bench-marked against the broader CNX500 index. However, the IT index has relatively under-performed the front-line NIFTY over the past couple of days. With the NIFTY likely to take a breather and consolidate over the coming days, there is a possibility that we could see some IT stocks relatively out-performing the NIFTY. TCS is one such stock. Tata Consultancy Services Ltd (TCS.IN) TCS peaked near 2266 in late September 2018 and has since remained in a broad Read More 

Analyzing India

Time To Place Prudence Before Greed in the Coming Week

by Milan Vaishnav

Over the past week, the market performed in striking contrast to what had been expected. For nearly 15 weeks, the markets were consolidating near their 50-Week MA and, last week, were showing signs of further impending consolidation. In spite of this, the markets ended up putting up a very strong show last week; the headline index piled up strong gains, ending the week with net gain of 391 points (+3.55%) on a weekly basis. Without disputing the strong momentum, this is the time when both traders and investors alike need to put prudence Read More 

Analyzing India

MINDTREE.in: Looking To Edge Higher

by Milan Vaishnav

MindTree Limited's stock price ended with gains of Rs. 23.20 (+2.84%) in Wednesday's session on March 14, 2019. This price move appears very important from the technical perspective, as it has thrown up several signals that point towards MINDTREE.IN inching higher over the coming days. The price has broken out from a multi-month resistance zone of 940-945. In the process, the price has penetrated the 200-DMA with higher-than-average volumes. This DMA had become a proxy trend line over the past couple of months. The price action on March 14, 2019 Read More 

Analyzing India

Are We In For An Improved Market Breadth? The Level Of 9200 Holds The Key

by Milan Vaishnav

The Indian markets saw a strong start to the week as the headline index ended with a robust gain of 132.65 points (+1.20%). With this move, the index has once again begun to attempt a breakout. This being said, over the past several weeks, the market breadth has been an area of concern, as each up move that we witnessed while the markets remained range-bound came with fractured breadth. For any market to enjoy a sustainable secular up move, it is very important that it comes with healthy market  breadth. Putting the NIFTY, which might see some consolidation at higher levels Read More 

Analyzing India

Week Ahead: Markets May Remain Tentative; These Pockets Likely To Relatively Outperform

by Milan Vaishnav

The past week fared better than the one prior as the market added more to its gains. A major portion of the weekly gains was posted in the first half, while the last two sessions were spent amid consolidation. In a 4-day week, the headline index NIFTY50 ended with weekly gains of 171.90 points (+1.58%).  After deliberating for 15 weeks around the 50-Week MA, the NIFTY is now attempting to inch higher. However, it is concerning to see divergent signals on the daily and weekly charts. On the weekly chart, NIFTY is attempting to move out of Read More 

Analyzing India

EMAMI Limited - Up for a Trend Reversal?

by Milan Vaishnav

Emami Limited is one of the leading and fastest growing personal and healthcare businesses in India, with an enviable portfolio of household brand names such as BoroPlus, Navratna, Fair and Handsome, Zandu Balm, Mentho Plus Balm, Fast Relief and Kesh King. The stock price of EMAMILTD.IN has been under-performing the general markets for the past couple of months. After testing high near 599, the stock has remained in a corrective decline. It tested its lows near the 336-mark and witnessed a sharp pullback from there. However, a few signs have emerged that point towards a likely Read More 

Analyzing India

NIFTY Set-up For The Coming Week: Taking Out Imp Levels Necessary; These Pockets May Relatively Outperform

by Milan Vaishnav

For yet another week, the markets took no directional call, going on to end the week with modest gains. The NIFTY remained within a broadly-defined range throughout the week, making some gains towards the end that halted near the 200-DMA. On the weekly charts, the index continued with its sideways move, ending once again above the 50-Week Moving Average, which is presently at 10805. Though it took no major directional call, the NIFTY ended with gains of 71.85 points (+0.67%) on weekly basis. As mentioned in our previous weekly Read More