Analyzing India

April 2019

Analyzing India

Are PSU Banks Likely to Outperform Private Banks? Answer Lies in the Relative Rotation Graph (RRG)

by Milan Vaishnav

We head in to a month that is set to be among the most volatile and eventful as the market faces one of the most important domestic events – General Election Results. The equity markets are currently hovering around their lifetime highs. On the one hand, they grapple with a not-so-favorable technical setup, showing persistent bearish divergence against its lead indicators. On the other hand, in the event of any favorable election outcome, we might see sporadic sharp up-moves happening. Amid this environment, an interesting rotation can be observed if we compare PSU Bank Index and Read More 

Analyzing India

Truncated Week May Offer Shallow But Volatile Moves; RRG Show These Sectors In Leading Quadrant

by Milan Vaishnav

The past week remained as flat as it can get. In our previous weekly note, we had expected the week to remain volatile and the level of 11760 continuing to pose stiff resistance to any up-moves. Hewing very close to expected lines, the Indian equity markets remained volatile, headed nowhere, continued to resist to the 11760 level and, finally, ended flat with meager gain of 1.85 points (+0.02%) on a weekly basis. We again face a truncated and short 3-day working week. There are two trading holidays; Monday on account of General Elections Voting in Mumbai and Wednesday because of Read More 

Analyzing India

Week Ahead: Odds Stacked Against A Sustainable Breakout; 11760 Still Remains Important To Watch

by Milan Vaishnav

The past week was quite eventful for the Indian equity markets. The short 3-day working week saw the benchmark index NIFTY50 marking a fresh high and attempting a breakout. Along with that, it also saw the NIFTY not confirming this breakout, slipping below the all-important 11760 mark once again. This week was also the third week in a row where the markets did not make any major directional move, ending with a net weekly gain of 109.35 points (+0.94%). The coming week will see the expiry of the current derivative series and is likely to Read More 

Analyzing India

Graphite India - Showing Good Potential Among Non-Index Stocks

by Milan Vaishnav

Graphite India Limited - GRAPHITE.IN GRAPHITE looks to be confirming its bottom in the 395-415 zone. After marking a low near 395, the stock has formed a base in the 395-415 zone; having experienced a sideways move over past couple of weeks, a breakout appears likely. The RSI, which is a leading indicator, has already marked a fresh high with a bullish divergence. It can be seen breaking out of a pattern formation and moving higher. The volumes increased heavily while the stock marked its lows, something that often marks a potential bottom. Read More 

Analyzing India

Special Note: When VIX Defies Its Inverse Relationship With NIFTY...

by Milan Vaishnav

The Volatility Index, more commonly known as the VIX, is a measurement of market's expected volatility in the future. Analysts and investors alike look at this tool to measure sentiment while making investment decisions. The VIX reflects the psychology of market participants' fear and greed and is often referred to as "Fear Gauge" or "Fear Index." The correlation between Indian VIX and the benchmark NIFTY50 is typically negative. We would always find VIX at low levels when the index is at its high point and VIX at high levels when the markets are trying to find a Read More 

Analyzing India

Week Ahead: Truncated Short Week To See Capped Upsides; Charts Offer Important Signals To Read

by Milan Vaishnav

This was the second week in a row where the Indian equity markets did not make any significant directional move. The week that went by remained particularly volatile, as the market oscillated back and forth on each side in a defined range while continuing to resist to the lower trend line of the rising channel it breached on the downside in late 2018. While heading nowhere, the benchmark index NIFTY50 ended with a net weekly loss of 22.50 points (-0.19%). The coming week will be a very short 3-day week. Wednesday and Friday are trading Read More 

Analyzing India

SBILIFE Offers Some Upside Potential

by Milan Vaishnav

SBI Life Insurance Company Ltd (SBILIFE.IN) This stock has a relatively short listing history. It originally listed in October 2017 and marked its high near 772 in middle of 2018, with a subsequent low near 483 in the corrective move that followed in late 2018. Presently, the stock is set to offer some upside potential. A large Symmetrical Triangle is seen on the daily charts. As the price attempts to move out, we can see a sharp rise in On-Balance Volume (OBV), which acts as a strength on the volume front. The PPO has turned positive and MACD has shown a positive Read More 

Analyzing India

Complex Inverted H&S Formation on ULTRACEMCO; Higher Delivery Percentage May Give Directional Clues

by Milan Vaishnav

A couple of days back, the NIFTY marked a classical Double Top at the 11760 level. The benchmark index has halted its up move and can be seen consolidating just below that level. Over the coming days, the markets are expected to remain highly stock-specific. Right now, ULTRACEMCO.IN deserves some attention. If we analyze the data of previous 6 weeks, ULTRACEMCO has seen an average of 38% of its total volumes being marked for delivery. Over the past several sessions, we have seen the delivery percentage figure going much higher than its average.  Read More 

Analyzing India

Week Ahead: Markets Placed On Tricky Turf; Would Be Sensible To Stick To Defensive Stocks

by Milan Vaishnav

The Indian equity markets had a volatile week, ultimately ending on a flat note. In our previous weekly outlook, we had mentioned the possibility of the market stalling its up-move and showing some corrective intent. After volatile trading throughout the week, it was the last hour of trade on Friday which caused the week to end with minor gains. Had it not been for this last-minute pullback on Friday, the week would have still ended flatly, but with a negative note. The headline index NIFTY50 settled with a net weekly gain of 42.05 points (+0.36%). As we Read More