Monitoring purposes SPX: Sold SPX on 4/1/14 at 1885.52 = gain 1.78%; Long SPX on 3/26/14 at 1852.56.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
We posted this chart yesterday and updated to today’s trading, which is the CBOE equity Put/Call ratio (CPCE) (bottom window). It has been a short term bearish sign for the market when the CPCE has multiple readings below .50 near the same price level on the SPX. Today marks the fifth time since the beginning of March where the CPCE recorded a reading below .50 all of which came near the 1880 range. Its also note worthy that yesterday and the day before where both below .50 on the CPCE which adds to strength of this area as resistance. The ticks had an exhaustion reading of plus 1235 on 4/15 which was 35 SPX lower and suggested upside was limited. The McClellan Summation index closed yesterday at +754 and normally deep declines in the market don’t begin with that high of McClellan Summation index. Normally deep declines can begin when the McClellan Summation index turns down below +500. We don’t have a sell signal here but indicators suggest the rally may stall near current levels. Staying neural. See us on the current cover of “Timer Digest”.
The chart above is the Bullish percent index (bottom window) that measures the percent of stocks in the NYSE that are on point and figure buy signals. It has been a bearish sign for the market when the bullish percent index first trades below the 60 level than fails to get above 70 on the next rally phase in the market. We have pointed out those instances with blue lines. This condition was present at the last high in the SPY in early April. The market made a bottom on April 10 and has rallied since than. What we are watching for is what the Bullish percent index will do; turn back down near 70% (or lower) or continue higher. With the CPCE ratio showing resistance around 1880 on the SPX, the Bullish Percent index could turn down near current levels. If the Bullish Percent index stalls near 70% bulls and turns down, than a worth while decline could be expected. The Bullish Percent index stands at 67.09% and still rising. If however, the bullish Percent index continues higher past 70% bulls than that condition would imply “all clear” for the market.
Tim Ord, Editor
16928 Van Dorn Street
Walton, Nebraska 68461
www.ord-oracle.com
(402) 486-0362.
tim@ord-oracle.com
