Short-Term Sentiment: Bearish.
Overall Intermediate-Term Sentiment: Mixed for the market.
Individual Investor Sentiment: ST Mildly Bearish. IT Bullish for the market.
Small Speculator Sentiment: ST Bearish, and IT Bearish for the Market.
Small Hedge Fund/Manager Sentiment: ST Neutral for the market and IT Bearish for the Market.
Longer-term Trend: Bull Market Condition.
Intermediate-term Trend: Negative. Unconfirmed.
Short-term (one-day) Signal: Sell.
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We have an Options Oscillator Sell. NAAIM shows advisors pulling in their horns.
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Options Sentiment--
Daily P/C ratio: 0.94. Neutral.
10-day P/C ratio: 0.90. Neutral.
Equity P/C ratio: 0.66. Neutral.
OEX PC ratio (not a fade): 1.27. Neutral.
OEX 10-day PC ratio: 1.61. Neutral.
ISEE Sentiment Index: 115. Neutral.
10-Day ISEE Sentiment Index: 100. Neutral.
Options Oscillator: 34. Sell.
Relative VIX: Neutral.
Daily VIX: Neutral.
CBOE:SPX: Negative. Confirmed.
OBSG: Neutral-near a Buy.
The options are looking mostly Neutral, despite some crazy volatility. Nobody appears to be concerned. I suspect that they should be. The Options Oscillator is flashing a Sell and I think it'll get right. The CBOE:SPX still looks Bearish. The Market Harmonics' Options Buyers Sentiment Gauge is Neutral near a Buy.
Most options indicators are contrary; if most folks are buying calls, we want to fade them and go short and vice versa. The OEX nominal P/C is an exception, because the OEX traders tend to be right, unless they are paying up for options (which will show up in the $-weighted data). The ISEE Sentiment Index indicator is contrarian; traditionally, over 200 is too optimistic, under 100 is too pessimistic. OBSG provided by Tony Carrion of Market Harmonics.
General Public Polls
Investors Intelligence reported 55.80% Bulls and 19.70% Bears vs. 54.70% Bulls and 20.60% Bears last week. That's a couple more Bulls and a few less Bears. This is still a solid Sell. We did a short article on the low reading and posted it on Traders-Talk, here:http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=153035.
National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) Sentiment Surveyreported that the Median market exposure fell to 78.00% from 85.00%. The mean exposure fell some to 76.81% from 82.63%. The minimum exposure rose to 9% short. The Maximum exposure fell to 177% long from 210% long. Looks like folks got a bit less Bullish and Bearish. Who can blame 'em? For more on this, see our white paper here,http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=116382 .
AAII is showing 28.34% Bulls and 28.66% Bears. Last week, we had 29.77% Bulls and 29.45%. This is a couple less Bulls and Bears. This is modestly Bullish.
The Newsletter Advisors got less Bullish at 47.00% (Long) vs 52.90% (Long). This is pretty mellow. The Naz advisors got less Bullish at 6.30% (Long) vs. 18.80% (Long). This isn't much help. It's not inconsistent with lower prices, however.
Lazlo Birinyi's site, Tickersense reported 30.33% Bulls and 47.83% Bears vs. 33.33% Bulls and 37.50% Bears. That's less Bulls and a lot more Bears. Still, not enough to take action. Looks Neutral to me. This is our least predictive survey.
TSP Talk came in (Thursday evening) with 50% Bulls and 35% Bears. This is Bearish for the market. They had 54% Bulls and 32% Bears last week.
Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model is now Neutral, barely.
Conclusion
Last time, I said that we were just playing the odds today and because longs weren't working out and shorts were, we viewed the odds as favoring the Bears until they don't. I said that I thought that yesterday's lows might be important and I'm pretty sure that they are. Clearly that rising trend line supported. If that goes tomorrow, it could be important, but just remember how many times they've saved it intra-day. A CLOSE below that trend line is much more important than a poke through. I'm kind of getting worried about the readings I'm seeing. NAAIM is showing advisors pulling in their horns. Honestly, these guys aren't stupid. They've been Bullish for a long time and now they're acting nervous--Bears too. That's a warning. Tonight, we have an Options Oscillator Sell and a good one. Fridays are starting to develop a Bearish habit and I'd not be surprised if we were down on Friday again. Our "Best Trend" indicator remains negative and we are close to getting a Seasonal Sell.
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Mark Young
Editor, WallStreetSentiment.com
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