Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord- The Ord Oracle- February 18, 2015

Tim Ord

Tim Ord


Monitoring purposes SPX: Long SPX on 2/3/15 at 2050.03.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat 


Timers Digest recorded the Ord Oracle #6 in performance for 3 months updated February 13, 2015.
The chart above looks at the short term picture for the SPY.  Normally these indicators on this chart will show bullish or bearish signs before a top or bottom is completed.   The top window is the McClellan Oscillator and reading above “0” are a bullish sign for the market and today’s reading came in at 55.03.  Next window down is the NYSE up volume/NYSE down volume/ NYSE down volume/ NYSE up volume.  This ratio does a good job helping to identify a trend by staying on a bullish or bearish crossover. The blue arrows represent the bullish crossovers and so far its holding on to that signal.  The bottom window is the NYSE advance with 5 period moving average and NYSE Decline with a 5 period moving average.  The advance decline moving averages are also holding on to a bullish signal.  Since all three short term indicators are on bullish signals, the short term trend remains up.   Long SPX on 2/3/15 at 2050.03.

As pointed out in yesterday’s report, the market may have difficulty moving higher short term and may move sideways. However the bigger picture still looks positive.  Above chart looks at the bigger picture for the market.  The bottom window is the NYSE stocks above their 50 above moving average.  The recent rally from the February lows has pushed the stocks above 50 day moving average to 70.43% which matches the November high reading and keeping step with the NYA. Though this indicator is not real positive its not negative.  Next window up is the NYSE stocks above their 150 day moving average which is a longer term indicator than the stocks above their 50 day moving average.  The stocks above the 150 day moving average is drawing a more positive in that its making higher highs above the November highs and a positive divergence compared to the NYA. The top window is the cumulative volume for the NYSE and this indicator has had a breakout and a positive sign for the NYA.  As long as the 150 and 50 day MA’s are moving higher and the Cumulative volume is also trending higher than in general a market decline should be minor. 

GDX could have turned the corner to the upside today. The bottom window is the GDX/GLD ratio on a closing base.  It looks a little different than the candlestick GDX/GLD ratio but the closing base pattern for GDX/GLD ratio allows one to compare previous closing high and closing lows to the current close which can give clues to signals earlier.  On the recent decline in GDX the larger bullish divergence in GDX/GLD ratio remained bullish and kept the notion alive that another rally was coming.  The Elliott Wave five count up from the November low is still a possibility and with a short term divergence in the GDX/GLD ratio today, Wave 4 may have ended and Wave 5 up is beginning.  Long GDX on 2/18/15 at 21.10; Stop at 20.35.

-Tim Ord

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