Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Debunking the Fed as the Controller of Inflation

by Tom McClellan

 A commentator on CNBC recently stated that former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker is “revered” in the bond market for having slayed the inflation dragon.  While that version of history is widely believed to be true, and while then-Chairman Volcker did take aggressive action with interest rates, the causal relationship between Fed action and inflation rates has now been debunked by revelations from other data. This week’s chart looks at a comparison between the CPI-U inflation rate and a global average temperature index known as HadCRUT4, which is maintained by the Hadley Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Jack Steiman:Transports...Industrials Take Out Bears....Market Still In Its Base....AAPL Bearish Behavior...Sentiment Unwinding...

by Jack Steiman

If you take the time to study the weekly charts you'll see that many of them have unwound those overbought oscillators quite a bit while price held critical support. The SP 500 has really unwound quite a bit and that's good news for the bulls. There are times when this amount of oscillator unwinding would have caused much deeper price erosion but since we're still in a bull market price at 2040 has found a way to hold. The monthly charts are still horrible. Hide the kids on those but at least the weekly charts are in better bullish shape. It doesn't mean we won't lose 2040 due to those Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle - July 29, 2015

by Tim Ord

Monitoring purposes SPX: Sold long SPX on 7/16/15 at 2124.29= gain 1.05%.  Long SPX on 6/25/15 at 2102.31. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Flat Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat  Chart above is the daily NYSE composite.  As we said yesterday, the pattern forming appears to be a Head and Shoulders top where the May 21 high is the top of the “Head”.   There appears to be two Head and Shoulder tops sharing the same “Head”.  The larger of the two Head and Shoulders patterns is forming now and the “left Shoulder” of this pattern had two humps and the if the symmetry Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Gene Inger: The Inger Letter July 29, 2015

by Gene Inger

An interesting test inadvertently occurred - with implications that go well beyond the economic and market conditions in China. When their 'central planners' decided to withhold support (after their first injection round) and 'intimidate' investors and traders, it didn't work and markets resumed on the downside as soon as they could. Then came yet-another round. That proved that markets were incapable of stabilizing on their own; so some blamed the 'intellect' of investors; saying over 2/3 of the Chinese speculators didn't have a high school education. That's a lame explanation for what Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tushar Chande: Full Trend Analysis of Major Market ETFs

by Tushar Chande

The big picture: US GDP data have ticked up and markets remain in shallow up-trends.  We remain bullish though market internals have weakened due to choppy trading in narrow price ranges. The Big Picture: US Economy Shows Improvement  We analyze the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) data and recast it in an investor-friendly format (see Figure 1).  The economy weakened in the first quarter of 2015, but has bounced back in the second quarter.  Our rating remains solidly in the bullish range.  This means that there is little risk of a massive market Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Anatomy of a Sell Down Momentum Run

by Martha Stokes

List of Differences Between Upside & Downside Candlesticks During an Intermediate Term Correction caused by several major industries in an industry cycle bear market, momentum sell down runs can be a lucrative trading method for Swing, Day, and Momentum traders who know how to Sell Short or trade “put” Options. Few technical and retail traders know how to sell short properly. Often they use outdated strategies that no longer function optimally in the automated markets. Also most assume that the upside and downside are mirror images, which is a continuing myth that creates whipsaw Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Jack Steiman: Earnings No Help....Breadth On The Decline....More And More Sectors Breaking Down...Still Nothing Bearish....

by Jack Steiman

Last night we saw a strong move higher out of Amzn, everyone's favorite all time froth stock. They reported earnings. Yes, it can happen. The stock blasted higher and so did the futures but that wasn't the only reason the stock futures shot up. There were other solid reports wrapped around one bad report from Trip. V, Sbux and others were great so the combination of good reports had the Nas futures exploding higher by nearly fifty points. Everything was set up to reverse the recent move lower on the indexes off the top. The futures held somewhat overnight but started to give it up some Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: RASI Shows Bull Market Waning

by Tom McClellan

The Summation Index was invented by my parents back in 1969, as a companion to the McClellan Oscillator.  But it was in more recent years that we refined our understanding of the importance of the Summation Index in revealing what lies ahead for the stock market. To understand this important point, we need to explore and define a principle of rocketry known as “escape velocity”.  This term is variously (and sometimes confusingly) defined as the velocity which a projectile needs in order to escape the gravitational field of a planet or other body, and/or the velocity needed to Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle July 23, 2015

by Tim Ord

Monitoring purposes SPX: Sold long SPX on 7/16/15 at 2124.29= gain 1.05%.  Long SPX on 6/25/15 at 2102.31. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Flat Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat  On yesterday’s report we showed that the McClellan Summation topping out below +500 and the Bullish Percent index turning down below +65% have lead to big declines and both of these indicators are below the bearish levels.  The chart above is the daily NYSE. The pattern forming appears to be a Head and Shoulders top.  The left shoulder has two humps and to keep the symmetry the Right Shoulder Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tushar Chande: Technical Analysis of Mumbai SENSEX: Let's have some fun comparing systematic vs. discretionary styles

by Tushar Chande

We have to thank Chip Anderson for giving us a unique opportunity to compare a discretionary style to a systematic approach using Indian stock indexes.  Vipul Ramaiya now has a column analysing  India, which uses a discretionary approach, where the rules are ‘soft-coded’.  I analyze all markets with a fully systematic approach, where the rules are ‘hard-coded’.  This provides us all with an excellent laboratory to compare and contrast the two styles. A Systematic Analyst Seeks an Analytical Edge By removing emotion from the analysis, and its implementation Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Gold Price In Euros Has Gone Quiet

by Tom McClellan

 I like to tell my newsletter readers that if you want to look at a chart of gold prices to get a good technical perspective, then look at gold as priced in euros, rather than in dollars. The dollar price of gold just does not seem to behave in as orderly a fashion from a chartist’s perspective as the euro price does.  The dollar price does not particularly exhibit support and resistance behavior at static price levels, and its trendline breaks seem to come after the corresponding trendline break in the chart of prices measured in euros. Whether or not Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Martha Stokes: 5 Tips for Selling Short Success

by Martha Stokes

New Topping Formations List and New Entry & Exits Selling short is a trading style few retail and technical traders use even during major Bear Markets. The reason is because it is often far more challenging to understand the technical patterns of the downtrend which include 5 Tips for Selling Short Success. How stocks move down, where support levels create bounces or rallies, and how to know when to enter and when to exit a sell short trade for maximum profits is a challenge for most traders. Here are 5 Tips for Selling Short Success:   Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tushar Chande: Trend Analysis of Commodity ETFs/ETNs and Corresponding Futures Market

by Tushar Chande

The Cocoa ETN (NIB) is the strongest commodity ETN, as cocoa responds to a stronger British Pound Sterling.  A review the trend strength of other commodity ETFs/ETNs and explain their performance by assessing trend strength of the related futures markets. Trend Strength of Commodity ETFs/ETNs We summarize the Chande Trend Meter values for the more popular commodity ETFs and ETNs in Figure 1.  The Cocoa NIB ETN shows the best strength, as Cocoa has strengthened in response to a stronger British Pound Sterling (see Figure 2).   The Precious Metals Physical Shares of Platinum Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle July 15, 2015

by Tim Ord

Monitoring purposes SPX:  Long SPX on 6/25/15 at 2102.31. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Flat Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat  The middle window in the chart above is the CBOE put volume/CBOE call volume.  The CBOE put/call volume ratio becomes extreme when it reaches above 1.20 or in other words when put volume is higher than call volume by 20% or more.  This chart goes back five years and shows the times when this put/call volume ratio reached above 1.20 and as you can see at the last low it reached this level.   Precious times when this ratio reached above Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Jack Steiman: Weeklies Test Key 2.5 Year Support Lines This Week and Hold...Greece Proposal on the Table...

by Jack Steiman

A tough week for the bulls Monday through Thursday. Some really bearish candles printed, especially yesterday with a big reversal lower after a huge gap up. Today looked as if it would be the day the market finally gave up Sp 2040 with some force. Yesterday gave every indication the end of the bull run was at hand. Not to be. Greece, last night, agreed to some key concessions on austerity that the euro zone demanded on having if they were to give them any help. The markets abroad loved this news. The futures blasted up and of course we followed along right behind. We gapped up but instead Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tushar Chande: Four Top Trending Stocks in S&P-500 Index (as of July 10, 2015)

by Tushar Chande

Editor's Note: We are thrilled to welcome Tushar Chande to our list of market commentators here at StockCharts.com.  Dr. Chande is a noted author and has invented several of the technical indicators we offer here.  He is also a frequent contributor to Stocks & Commodities magazine.  His website, ETFMeter.com, can help you understand the world of ETFs. There is no shortage of indicators in technical analysis.  They are all driven by the same underlying price data, but changing the time-period of analysis naturally produces a different analysis.  The Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Gene Inger- Friday, July 10, 2015

by Gene Inger

'Brinksmanship' - pretty accurately describes where many markets and crisis stand ahead of the weekend. Whether Greece, the Chinese collapse peppered with sporatic rebounds as the PBOC tries to implement their 'Plunge Protection' efforts (typically sold into, as investors need to raise money; but interventions have impact on astronomically-priced stocks, many of which are only bouncing due to the ability 'to' sell having been frozen; a big mistake for 'price discovery'); or incidentally nuclear-deal Iranian impasse periodically revealing (more). China and Greece are Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle July 9, 2015

by Tim Ord

Monitoring purposes SPX:  Long SPX on 6/25/15 at 2102.31. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Flat Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat  Above is a longer term view of the market.  Big declines can begin when the NYSE Summation index turns down before its get to +500 and the NYA bullish percent index turns down before reaching 65%.  The chart above goes back to 2008 and shows the times when the McClellan Summation index (second window down from top) turns down before reaching +500 and the Bullish percent index for the NYA (bottom window) turning down before reaching 65% near Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Gold Shows Real Reason for Oil's Dip

by Tom McClellan

Crude oil prices had been hovering around the $60/barrel level since late April 2015, seemingly held at a quiet hover.  But it has just recently broken its hold on that price level, with a move downward that has been attributed to the economic uncertainty in Greece. This is a classic case of the news media seeing a price event, and seeing a news story at the same time, then concluding that the two must be related.  My explanation is different: oil is dipping now because that is on the script that oil prices have been following for the past several months. Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Gene Inger- Monday, July 6, 2015

by Gene Inger

Fireworks or a Pandora's Box - of troubles, which shall it be? Both are likely the way things are shaping up. Especially when one looks at the forest (not a swipe at a surge of 'actual' forest fires out West), versus most analysts looking at each 'financial tree' -or even central bankers- acting 'as if' every challenge like Greece, or even China, and certainly Puerto Rico, are in their views just 'brush-fires' that have to be contained; with no risk of spreading. They can create 'fire-lines' for awhile; but the ability of flames (or embers) more likely to jump those lines increases, the Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: QQQ Volume Spikes on Selloff

by Tom McClellan

When the situation in Greece came to a head over the past weekend, traders responded with one of the biggest one-day selloffs we have seen in recent months.  It was not actually a big day in absolute terms, but compared to what we have become used to lately, it was a pretty scary day. ETF traders responded by ramping up the volume in QQQ, the ETF that is designed to match the performance of the Nasdaq 100 Index.  Fellow analyst Jason Goepfert of www.sentimentrader.com turned me on to the idea that daily QQQ volume makes for a great sentiment indicator.  It rises to a Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Martha Stokes: Rounding Top Candlestick Pattern

by Martha Stokes

How to Identify Support Levels The Rounding Top Candlestick Pattern used to be a rare topping pattern, however in the last few years this type of top is the most commonly missed topping formation. It goes unnoticed until there is a sudden downside run, often on High Frequency Trader HFT volume surge with a gap down or huge point run down. The reason most technical traders miss the Rounding Top Candlestick Pattern, is because it starts out as an apparent sideways pattern which slowly bends over into a rounding shape that is harder to recognize early on. At times this candlestick pattern Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle July 2, 2015

by Tim Ord

Monitoring purposes SPX:  Long SPX on 6/25/15 at 2102.31. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Flat Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat  We do a lot of work with the TRIN and Ticks.  The above chart is the Tick (top window) with 100 period moving average below that is the SPY and the bottom window is the 50 period moving average.  Going back three and half years there where four instances when the 100 period Ticks was in oversold levels with the 50 period Ticks at the same time.  We have pointed out theses instances with blue arrows.  In each case the market was Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Jack Steiman: Greece Hangs in the Balance.....Tracking the Major Indices....

by Jack Steiman

As we look towards the 2nd half of 2015 the market continues to be choppy with our major Indices pivoting on the day to day news out of Greece.  The Dow and SP 500 closed out the 1st half of the year little changed and we continue to hold in 7 Month basing patterns.  Lets take a look at the current setup on the SP 500 and discuss some key near term levels.  As we can see in our chart below after a hard push lower on Monday the SP 500 caught near our 2,051 200 EMA.  We define the 2,040-50 region as significant give we have a confluence of horizontal, 200 EMA and Weekly Read More